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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #20,081
  • Nov 3, 2010 8:40am Nov 3, 2010 8:40am
Hello all!
What are your thoughts on the US QE2 in terms of the reaction in the markets? Is it good for the USD? Is more money inflow good for USD?
  • #20,082
  • Nov 3, 2010 8:47am Nov 3, 2010 8:47am
Quoting Mr.Bear
Hello all!
What are your thoughts on the US QE2 in terms of the reaction in the markets? Is it good for the USD? Is more money inflow good for USD?
bad.

but there are many forms of bad.
  • #20,083
  • Nov 3, 2010 9:04am Nov 3, 2010 9:04am
Quoting piccolo
bad.

but there are many forms of bad.
Sorry, but I'm a complete idiot in economics (learning though), could you elaborate on this topic, when you have some time to spear?
  • #20,084
  • Nov 3, 2010 9:36am Nov 3, 2010 9:36am
Quoting Mr.Bear
Sorry, but I'm a complete idiot in economics (learning though), could you elaborate on this topic, when you have some time to spear?
QE2 is what we used to call debt monetization, and it is where a CB (in this case, the Fed) exchanges dollars for debt. Think of it as the Fed flooding the market with dollars in exchange for government debt. In basic economic terms, there will be more dollars chasing goods and services, which is inflationary and not good for the currency of the nation that is conducting the monetization. On the other hand, it also primes the economic engine of the nation in question. The fed hopes to see an increase in economic activity in terms of GDP, and if GDP increase faster than it increased in Europe or Japan or Great Britan, etc (and if there is little impact in inflation) then the result will be a stronger dollar. The market is anticipating dollar negative at this time, but as this thing unfolds, and if Europe implodes again as it did in May, the dollar may actually strengthening. But for now, negative impact.
  • #20,085
  • Nov 3, 2010 10:01am Nov 3, 2010 10:01am
Quoting GEfx
QE2 is what we used to call debt monetization, and it is where a CB (in this case, the Fed) exchanges dollars for debt. Think of it as the Fed flooding the market with dollars in exchange for government debt. In basic economic terms, there will be more dollars chasing goods and services, which is inflationary and not good for the currency of the nation that is conducting the monetization. On the other hand, it also primes the economic engine of the nation in question. The fed hopes to see an increase in economic activity in terms of GDP, and if...
Thank you for an in depth explanation in simple words! Now it all ads up in my mind.
  • #20,086
  • Nov 3, 2010 12:55pm Nov 3, 2010 12:55pm
Hi Friends,

are you prepared for the great show down in around 20 minutes?

I'm expecting one the most interesting trading session of this year.
Have checked all my technical equiptment, reseted my routers, checked my Coffee-Automat ;-)

So the show can start - I'm ready.

Do not take any risks, that are not handable by your book.
Expect some "disconnection times" with your brokers (especially Oanda).
Don't be to greedy.
Stay nimble.

I wish you all the best!

Cu,
MaMood
  • #20,087
  • Nov 3, 2010 1:36pm Nov 3, 2010 1:36pm

The name of the game: Cheating the Broker ....
I like their malicious IT infrastructure.
I call it ZRT (zero-risk-trading) ....

Maybe some details later
  • #20,088
  • Nov 3, 2010 1:47pm Nov 3, 2010 1:47pm
Glad that you had success. I waited until the spread on oanda went back down to 2 and just about to place a trade and it disconnected. Later when I did place a trade it was 10 pips from where I entered. So I just closed it for a small loss. Can not rescue or attack in these conditions.

I will start again tomorrow. All the best. Ray
  • #20,089
  • Nov 3, 2010 1:51pm Nov 3, 2010 1:51pm
Quoting MaMood

The name of the game: Cheating the Broker ....
I like their malicious IT infrastructure.
I call it ZRT (zero-risk-trading) ....

Maybe some details later
Just woke to a bit of action. I bet you've chalked up the pips.
With wisdom comes humility. With humility comes wisdom!
  • #20,090
  • Nov 3, 2010 2:04pm Nov 3, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting 1234
Glad that you had success. I waited until the spread on oanda went back down to 2 and just about to place a trade and it disconnected. Later when I did place a trade it was 10 pips from where I entered. So I just closed it for a small loss. Can not rescue or attack in these conditions.

I will start again tomorrow. All the best. Ray

Seems to be the right decision, Ray.
When there is no reliable connection to your broker, you can not do seriuos trading. Gambling only - and that is not the way to go.

So you have done everything right I would say.
(Knowing that Oanda has a lot of problems during such news releases, it could be the best solution, not to try it at all.)

Dancing standard fti MO at the moment.
Vola is very appreciated.
Nice moves for the past 25 minutes,
Only using 3kgds, M1, M5 and Tickchart for this type of market ...
  • #20,091
  • Nov 3, 2010 2:20pm Nov 3, 2010 2:20pm
Quoting piphop
Just woke to a bit of action. I bet you've chalked up the pips.
Hi piphop,

not that much pips, but a few zero-risk pips.
Means I was jumping in with really big sizes, because of a "technical edge" against my broker ...

Waiting for a final decision about the 1.41 level now: above or below .....
DOW has retested the spike high fromthe eraly QE move and has turned down again. So I guess we are retesting 1.41 too.
  • #20,092
  • Nov 3, 2010 2:22pm Nov 3, 2010 2:22pm
Hello Mammod!
I tried to login to your netviewer session, but it expired.
Can you provide new number of session ?
Thank you
Per aspera ad astra
  • #20,093
  • Nov 3, 2010 2:39pm Nov 3, 2010 2:39pm
Quoting Ihor
Hello Mammod!
I tried to login to your netviewer session, but it expired.
Can you provide new number of session ?
Thank you
Hi Ihor,

that number is only valid as long as the NetViewer session is running.
At the moment there is none.
But I guess I will setup a new one tomorrow around London opening.
I'll keep you informed here in the thread....

Cu,
MaMood
  • #20,094
  • Nov 3, 2010 3:03pm Nov 3, 2010 3:03pm
thanks mate!
We will be waiting for tomorrow London session interactive trading and discussion)
Per aspera ad astra
  • #20,095
  • Nov 3, 2010 6:23pm Nov 3, 2010 6:23pm
Quoting piccolo
bad.

but there are many forms of bad.

heh.
If anything good should come out of these QE's a dollar rally may be needed?!


JMHO.
Regards.
  • #20,096
  • Nov 4, 2010 3:22am Nov 4, 2010 3:22am
Good morning Friends!

Hope you have all survived the FOMC show last night ...
Still trading for my living this morning.
As soon as I have finnished I'll start the obave mentioned netviewer session.
May take an hour or so to get ready ...

CU,
MaMood
  • #20,097
  • Nov 4, 2010 3:40am Nov 4, 2010 3:40am
Quoting MaMood
Good morning Friends!

Hope you have all survived the FOMC show last night ...
Still trading for my living this morning.
As soon as I have finnished I'll start the obave mentioned netviewer session.
May take an hour or so to get ready ...

CU,
MaMood
Morning Niels
That knee-jerk after the initial reaction last night almost got me a heart attack, but still - all is good when it ends good. I'm now trading long gold and cable, short USDCAD and GBPAUD. Not sure what you mean by "trading for my living" - I hope you didn't get burned badly? Is everything OK?

Rgrds
S
  • #20,098
  • Nov 4, 2010 3:47am Nov 4, 2010 3:47am
Quoting Setebos
Morning Niels
That knee-jerk after the initial reaction last night almost got me a heart attack, but still - all is good when it ends good. I'm now trading long gold and cable, short USDCAD and GBPAUD. Not sure what you mean by "trading for my living" - I hope you didn't get burned badly? Is everything OK?

Rgrds
S
Hi Stan,

everything is fine on my side.
Maybe I used the words the wrong way: Just wanted to say, that I want to earn some money this morning, before I'm able to offer a live session again. "Trading for a living" ....

Thx for taking care ;-)

Niels
  • #20,099
  • Nov 4, 2010 3:48am Nov 4, 2010 3:48am
Quoting MaMood
Good morning Friends!

Hope you have all survived the FOMC show last night ...
Still trading for my living this morning.
As soon as I have finnished I'll start the obave mentioned netviewer session.
May take an hour or so to get ready ...

CU,
MaMood
i took some losses last night niels

but just managed to get it back and a little profit just recently when EU Bulls rushed in awhile ago
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #20,100
  • Nov 4, 2010 4:11am Nov 4, 2010 4:11am
Hi,

done for the day.
These nice moves on EU in the past few minutes made my day ...
Going to prepare the session after I took a fresh cup of coffee.
Will send you the details soon

MaMood
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