Pathfinding

So at a plateau, middle of last week was high volume and yet no definite direction as can be seen on H4.

Right now all MAs un top so things are set for a drop like a stone.

But it didnt.

Congressional "election" today so no real money trades, going to demo, statement to follow.

After some thinking i came to the conclusion that looking at diffrent timeframes mostly have the effect of showing my why things stop to move, because its at a MA on a higher timeframe.

Looks kinda like noone is going to trade today.

As the headling says, like yesterday morning, stay away from night channel at day, the probability itll turn is shite.

I just couldnt resist the temptation to at least go + today so i made one trade for a good 3.5 pips. So thats 5/5 days in profit.

Its like the best PA EVER, Type B, touching C, all good oh yeah baby. But im worried ill get caught up in a tricky 30 minute deal and things will change rapidly from there cause of election day, so real cash is out for the day.

I really need to get a coffee machine here, this freeze dried war coffee is an insult to good coffee.

Id love this every day, people should really stop trading and leave it to me and the EAs.

Not following with TP at MA 20 is using religious takeprofit, because you are then hoping that things will turn around, which for as long as i can see, can almost never be calculated upon, the probability of that is at best .5 at certain places, and far less then .5 chance in most other times, maybe more like .3 chance on average.

Chiff things not much change if the sick mother ****** party wins, as opposed to turd sanwich shitforbrains party. I think that i agree. The wall street industrial complex party will get in anyway, "Congress always gets in".

I thought the only problem was to try to eliminate SL, and for that i needed to judge the weather. And so i was judging all sorts off fantasy creations, weighing them against eachoter, calculating probabilities through intuitive math. Ladies and gentelmen i dont know ANY of the school math presented beyond first grade high shcool, yet my judgegment has trumendous accuracy through a torrent of numbers beyond summoned for 10 bits of information multiplied with eachoter, cross refered with other such packets of information about analogue probabilities whose excat values i need to approcximate from memory.

Doesnt sound like it should work, but it DOES. The human mind is incredible when you REALLY use, when you really give it your all to understand it. Its not different from learning to ride my bike and my skateboard. Im just surfing the wave of the world.


So to sum up. When approximated probability of profit is larger then .6, enter appropriate direction. Probabilitiy calculates from all sources. Profit means the fact that given an near inifite numbers of cases looking exactly like the presentend one, in 7 cases of 10 you must have entered the right direction in 4 minutes. Meanings it is probability .7 or greater that you will be in profit within the next 4 minutes. .7 may seem little, but the fact is, given that profit doens not ensue, you get another chance in 4 candles, and now its the same, in 7 cases of 10 you will be in TOTAL profit for the hwole pack of trades. Because now the price has moved so fast that the probility of it increasing/decreasing at a lesser amount then before.

To be quite excat, and i mean quite not completely exact probility is calculated through this operation.

Probability that RSI/CCI shows the right thing .5

Probability that Borders show the right thing .55

Things is that often they both give signal at the same time, and then the probability that i talked about is something like .7

I do this i my mind, i dont have time to write it down witht the cumbersome penn and paper, i store it in virtual whiteboards filled with infinte data, a miljon of them stacked on tpå of eachother. The library is so vast and it is interconnected, every piece of data is connected to every other. I dont even have to look at individual numbers, its like i am 96 people working in a infinte library collecting and processing data, having 3-4 discussions of diffrent matters at a time, some of us on a break throwing pebbles in a pond, feeding the ducks. Yet some others being critical to old ideas while others have moved on a long time ago.


Probatility is also HEAVILY influenced by MAs placement, they ALWAYS limit profits, thats theyre krux. But i mean ultimate probility still holds at .7. The probatility 0f .7 in 4 chances in a row, everytime 60% of winning the hwole lot! So doesnt matter if you fail 4 times in a row, its still less then the SL. Each segment worth about 6 pips, thats by the way the standard segment size. It is really the smallest heartbeat on the world market.

And this is of course a over simplification of the truth, but this is kind of what it looks like in the statement. This is when i do it right, i didnt do it right in this statement. I AM doing it right in this timesegment, and statement for that coming up.

Its not about money, money is just one of those numbers in the calculations in that library, one of the things those people handle. Of course they are all me, diffrent elements of my personality.




Im doing it this way with cash tommorrow.

So far so good, 6/6 days profit.

Time does not exist, and herein lies a key mathematical element. You can either go for H1 and make about 10 deals/month with your given proability for profit. OR you could make the EXACT same 10 deals in one day. Becuase the changing price has the same mathematical dynamics, in a month as well as a day, because of leverage we can act this way. We can compress time with M1, we do the excat same things as on H1, only a LOT more frequent. So given my accuracy of .7, three times in a row and if any succeds of those ergo: Profit, if all is loosers i lose something like 1 or 7 or 13 pips. Mostly though i loose 1 pip if i loose this first probability encounter, if i loose the next in preciding sequence, i am in loss of 7 pips, and if i loose a third time i loose 13 and so on. But rememeber: The first time my probability encounter comes in profit, which is .7 probability, i can close to a profit of 4.5 or 10.5 profit if i win twice in a row, and then third encounter i win 16.5 if that turns my way.

But to be very precise above calculations is euclidean/platonic, therefor not real. Reality is modified byt things i did not mention, but i will mention them as they are important in each case.

So let me turn to Reality. Its VERY seldom a move goes three times in one direction, a move being on average 5 candles 6 pips. Time and pips is its 2 dimensional being.The move has a strength of about 1.2 pip/candle. Of course the move is very many ticks, and most candles is far greater then 1.2, in fact median candle size is perhaps about 3 candles. What i am saying is that 1.2 pips/candle is the AVERAGE how far from where the move began. So what is really important that a move (typical 5 candles) price will HAVE CHANGED on average 6 candles. There are a multitude of extremly important subdiscussions of this and they will branch in several directions and if you read this you really need to have the interest to understand what i mean, i cant really tell you why, this is to begin with only a chance of understanding what i am saying. What YOU do with these words, this knowledge, that is up to you, but it is my gift to the world.

So lets continue.


Now i havent caracterized truly WHY it is the case that what direction to take next can be defined in advance with some proability. Well its because for some reason i will not here speculate about, there is a tendency for price to stop and go the other way. There is a multitude of more or less coherent, more or less accurate ways of calculating that probability. I use moving averages, and i have for a long time. When price has moved a specific amount from an specific moving average, there is a certain specific probability that in that instance, it will stop moving in the direction it has been moving, and move in the other direction. How to find this, for each and everyone to decide. If you dont want to do this, then so be it.


All calculations such as "6 pips" and "5 minutes" are subject to the PA weather and some other things, multuplying its sizes about .9 to 1.2

Each lot is such:

SL analysis size of prefered amount of risked probability encounters.

TP analysis as above.


SL amount For now 5 probability encounters

TP: amount Two proability encounters. But will often be taken out before.


Given that loss is only 0.3x0.3x0.3 chance of about .027, in other words 2.7% chance of loss after 3 probability encounters.


So its the MAs and the RSI that gives .7 probability. If i entered blindly it would be .5 probability.



Right now using 4.8% of total account, at maxium. That is even theoretic cause i havent used the fourth position yet. So in practice its 3.6% of total account. This is while generating 1% a day, that being a not so good day as the last have been. So im saying the PA weather is not optimal for profits, far from it. This is very conservative though, so i have FAR from it even been near 3.6% of drawdown on an open set of positions. I thing maximum loss on open deals have been something like 1% of total capital. But the singular losses i have had have been for about 0.1% to 0.2%of total capital. So each day has ended in profit, though sometimes even less then 1%, but still in other days more then so. Yesterday i blamed myself for entering at a place i had a hunch, that wasnt good at all. It didnt have enough good characteristics of a good place to enter. So that brought me down early on, but i gained this on some VERY moderate and safe positions. I hadnt then underststood that i really should give it more ten 2 positions to gain a lot and loose less.

A loss of 3.6% should be like a extremly sudden stock exchange crash that comes in 20 minutes.

Have reset TP to the maximum TP, half of that is usually a very good profit to close at.



The thing with what i am saying here has a special caracteristic that much other specch does not: I have verifiable empircal evidence of what i speak. Albeit this empirical evidence is founded on lies and treachery, those lies and treachery has the effect of currency in our world.

That means if someone say "I did that because i wanted to" or if they say "I needed to do that" or "I fucked up." They often say it without being able to show the empirical evidence. If i say it here i can verify it with evidence, and see the validity of that statement. Gee i guess these days i sound a lot like an empiricist. But OK, i am that then, i can live with that as opposed to living in some fantasy world where strange shit matters. Now im not saying money matters at all, but you can transform money to something that actually matters.

Since politics is about money, and about YOUR money, in the US. Being a politician is a question of earning money first and foremost. This is an impossible situation really. Given this the politician will always Do what she or he can collect the most money from doing. Being a wall street tool earns them the most money so they become that, they are following theyre plan.

So how will this end and how DID it end?

Here is a strong theory, a seldonesk calculation psyche (greek) history so to speak. The politician will become controlled by the hunger for money, representation of the people will seize to exist, and the word "democrazy" will in that instant be a word from the past. Now the true rein of captital has begun, there is no question about it. This was the 60s, 70s and 80s. That process came into its LAST face in the 11 september of 2001.

Our existence is now uphold by the function of selling things to us. Now the world is sold and there is somebody owning it, and it aint YOU, its somebody you DONT know! Who DONT hold youre values, who DONT want you all of the best things in life, somebody you DIDNT go to school with, somebody you DIDNT have a beer with, somebody hwo DONT MIND murder, somebody who is HIDING things from you.

What will the future hold?

If there is no currency, its not possible to seek it. For the US there will only be one choice, production or utter ruin. Ruin is not an option because in the long term it will mean the people get the power back, and it does not seem like companies in the US is gearing up for production.

Why do utter ruin bring about a coming into power for the people?

Ruin brings such scarcity that currency become unimportant. When you cant get anything for your nice paper notes with old guys on, you WILL try to save yourself, when hunger and thirst sets in there is NO HUMAN, willing to just lay down and die. Then the people WILL rise, because there will be no other choice. Looking back in history this is usually very messy for something like 3 years. This time around farm production is for animal use mostly, but that will change because it has to change.

When will the people rise?

When hunger and thirst set in, THEN comes the day of life or death. So when EVER most of social welfare seize to exist. I think this is happening in a BIG way in late 2011 and going on in 2012. This means in (2012+3) 2015 we will se the face of a new, still corrupt government in the US. This new government will have so many attributes of he last one, that it will suffer from the same problems. The fall of this second government is quite a long process, perhaps 10 years, perhaps 25, it depends on how crushed the spririt of all peoples are, and how fast we burn our natural resources like oil, natural gas, helium, lithium and such things. And it depends on if the US continues to bomb its nature with aluminum and other metalls. By then humanity will say "OK we fucked up and people are really dying." By then lying about things will not be possible, everyone will see that it is not possible to do anymore.

So the third government from now will be installed somewhere in 2015 to 2030, as a guesstimate. By then the world will be COMPLETELY changed, in the sense that the world has been completely changed in the past. This change will be so immense, that i dont think humanity has EVER seen such change, considering the amount of people (population) it encompasses.

So its very simple = The ruin of currency is the ruin of the society that is based on currency.

One good move i was in on for some profit, i was on the bathroom for the first. Right now news, but otherwise dead still.

Went in bad guns blazing through the front enterence, looked at some drawdown but at least ended up on the winning side. Coming up on MA 200 pushing down, if it goes through Im not taking the first candle at the border im waiting for it to show its hand. Goda damn, news again.

WTF Deutsche bank has spread of 1.7 for E/U thats not very good for me. Strange considering Alpari is using DB and doing things through them, and still Alpari is cheaper.

Kick two decimal number of pip butts today. Largest bad trade less then -1 pip, good ones for 4 pip and less. and good ones aobut 3 times more then bad ones.

How much money in profit or loss is just a matter of where i want to put the zero and where i want to put the dot. Risk=reward.

Seems Wall street gets into congress regardless, they have bought a lot of people in tea party, which as it turned out was bought by the giant deuce party the republicans.

Captains Logg, Stardate 2010 - 11- 4. Right now its in an steep hill climbing for a 200 pips and counting. Missed out on some action this morning, overslept. It would seem now is the reaction to the congress "election", nobody dared to trade yesterday. It stopped about 40 pips short of wild times/market crash on H1. And in doing so it shot through a roof that was double tested. In the same time it shot through dense channel for about 50 pips.

At 12:26 things are coming into line again, and trading PA might ensue. Its getting the 20 to 69 on top and 200 below treatment squeeze.Itll probably drop from here, when its gathered momentum or slowed down enough to get through 200.

12:45 After some quick analysis its evident that with some skill and outer borders it would be far from impossible to profit from sales in that upmove, so it wasnt a wild thing. But i think id rather take the safe, paved road rather then flying untop of a drunk dragon (Pun intended). Well anyway, its a nice thing that price doesnt just shot like a rocket, means profit is a probability even in bad weather.

13:06 Got tired of the objects in H1, so im deleting it all by hand, again.

13:14 I figured out a way of using two fingers on the same button so i managed to delete about 8 objects a second when i got the rythm going.

13:15 Yesterday i was thinking why i dont get any lines and arrows when i close a deal by hand, but i figured that its the script that draws them, if i dont use the script, no lines and no arrows. Although i would like em there, but i dont think its important enough to do something about it.

13:18 Im begginng to understand what Alister Crowley was thinking when he didnt want anybody to read the book of the law, and when he said that he didnt want people to try to understand what he wrote.

13:20 Just for the fun of it, and just to keep things fun i took a few pips just now, so as to make it 7/7 days in profit just in case no better opurtunity then just now presents itself. Didnt want to stay in that trade since news are coming up in T minus 9

Figured i might as well remove H4, its better to just go to H1 and zoom out. Of course the idea of having H4 was to look at when price hits MAs, but when they do they are often hitting some slower ones on H1, so trouble is evident from that as well.

Im buying euros all day baby!
And of course giving them back within 4 minutes. And yeah, is that weird?
Well you say thats what i am doing, then ill say, well if i can cash it for a HOUSE it sort of IS.

Ops now it seems like im gonna have to BUY dollars, oh well im not one to critize this system, the time for that has past.
If i want to live free im going to have to Get in to theyre SICK stuff, becase obiously i OWE this system something, i dont its the thing thats been attack ME. I dont owe this system, if anything, it owes .

Havent been looking at Oil and gold recently since alpari dont have it on Micros. But having a look at it now i can see that E/U is free from those two right now. Thats very peculiar.

I think eventually ill use tight SL.

8/8 days +

Today, because of adjusted lot size, all the other profits are dwarfed. But i am at the relation between total account and lot size that i want to be for the next 3-4 months. After that i will go down to about half of that relation between lots and account.

Yesterday was good evidence why a EA trading my way would have been a very bad idea.

Now its time for lunch.

I think greed and sloth is exponentially growing functions of the culture we call the western culture. These functions (greed & sloth) is self sanitasing functions, they will always increase until there is a tipping point in which things crumble when goods/food cannot be produced and/or distrubuted. This has happend many times over in history (Rapanui, Western rome, Maya, Post tsar russia US in 1929 and so on).

But it seems the world is only half ready for something new. There is a lot of people who still dont understand that the idea of capitalism leads to monopoly and fascism, because the people with the most money have nothing to gain from so called "free trade". I would think eventually enough people WILL understand this, perhaps in 15-25 years.

Not much news today, so there is plenty of trading time. NY has been pushing the "Down" button hard this night. I jut figured that a thing like H1 is greatly effected by weekends, all the MAs get screwed up, and the 200 dont even have time to get inline until it gets screwed all over again, since its less then 200 hours between weekends.

Its been a 400 pip drop since Thursday. So i guess Bernankes 600 biljon is inflating the US even more, just as intended or whatever.

9/9 days + so far

I want to see some big losses before i increase lot size, but there doesnt seem to be any, a pleasant problem i would think. This thing just keep on dropping gold in its tracks and im just picking it up.

This PA is divine, rattling around the MAs, swinging like a...uuh...sinus wave? Yeah thatll work (probably the worst analogy of the week).


I need to understand that even if a loose money/playing chips later, gaining just a little bit now is a lot better then nothing.


Something to consider is this: Increase lot size or increase amount of orders.
Increase in lot size means few orders to actually get out, meaning less requotes, meaning tighter placement. But drawback is the fact that i cant close at the events i know will lead to some bounce back to MAs, even though things will continue where they where going.

Anyway: I think i want to be as good at doing this as i can get, not because i like what im doing or because i think its sane, just because it is a mental challenge that, in all its insanity is a lot more beneficial to get skilled at then other mental challenges. I am sort of thankfull that its a temporary thing, bot for me as a person and for the world as a whole. I mean, all that it takes is a AI EA that just does some logical hoops jumping and then BOOM no market, no nothing, it owns it all. It would not care if it makes 0.5 pip, or 5 pip or 50 pip per deal, as long as win/loss ratio is good. Its quite evident how small and futile the human logic is, considering that it hasent already happend. It belittles the human logic, and tells nothing of the limits of computer logic, since we need to build it and plug it in for it to come physical into its potential.


I noticed in the last order i placed that i didnt know i placed it, it wasnt really a concious action, so its a lot like driving or biking. (I definitely prefer biking)


At H1 its been at the fast and the slow channel, merging them, and liking them like crazy, without much rebound into something sane. And going through it for about 50 pip journeys into empty space.

I need coffee, this PA dont want me to leave it unattended it seems, too much happening.

Question is, im i smart, or is it just that the market (euro/usd) is giving itself away? Well to the universe this question is irrelevant, the universe does not ask questions, then perhaps neither should i.


So heres another question the universe does not ask itself: Instead of trying to trade for one big gain, if its about twice the chance of getting two gains half the size of that big one, these alternatives is interchangeable and therefore the question uninteresting, right? Well as David Hume pointed out some 250 years ago while wearing that awful thing on his head, just because things have happend in a certain manner, and just because things seems stable in its state of being, that does not mean all of it can be turned on its head and everything go topsy turvy. The sky could fall on our heads, Ben Bernanke might start working at starbucks brewing free coffee for the working class, and all rabbits might become (semi) intelligent and start working at JP Morgan, signing those fraudulent mortgages documents.


A thing i should ponder beyond time is this: Two feet positioning. Meaning: two positions that is used if its needed, first one leg and if i can stand on that ill keep things steady on that one. If i need the other leg to balance my body (account) ill use that it things get wobbly. This requires a firm grip on how PA is affected at borders.


Another thing i should ponder in the place beyond the stars where time does not exist: Why are the banks connected to the Forex industry so willing to lend without applications and things like that? One reason might be because they are quite certain that people will chuck theyr doe at the market like crazy. I guess they get some of the spread money too so they win either way. And they get a lot from people like me, in relation to what i win. They get about .2 to .3 of what i get, something like that. So when im on 10 lots im one of theyre best customers, they really loooove me.


In a twisted way im sort of grateful for the spread, it means i need to keep my wits about me and its a good, harsh teacher.

13:38 I just broke new ground in the placing of really dumb ass positions. Probably the dumbest position ive ever taken. I dont know what the hell i was doing. If i believed punishment was a good idea id be beating myself senseless in the kitchen. At last i got out on + with that one, but the risk i took to wait for it didnt make sense at all. At least i will get a lot of chances not to be that stupid.

I think i want to and can be so skilled that i dont have to think much about SLs, i should be able to just trade myself out of a hairy situation. Of course i shouldnt get in hairy situations more then maybe once every 1-2 weeks, if it happens more often then that, then im not skilled enough (that would mean less skilled then now).

14:38 East coast coming to work, otherwise things have been quite for 1.5 hours, price being a close friend to MAs. People are deciding what to think it would seem. And im thinking about 5 minutes after them that i might do what i need to. I might as well hit the shower.

15:28 My Grandmother has PA in her pocket with more action in it then this. So as a measure of not boring myself to death im posting a photo of what it looks like outside my window.

It might seem rational to think: Well today things are pretty wild so ill trade from a higher timeframe compared to if it was not wild. That however doesnt seem to be an option, not the way i see it. Because the borders that exist dont know about timeframes it would seem. So really, they arent bound by M1 i think, M1 is an approximation of them. I would like to try to calculate them on tick-scale but i think its not necessary.