Technical Analysis Fallacy
- #20,041
- Nov 2, 2010 8:05am Nov 2, 2010 8:05am
- | Joined Feb 2006 | Status: adjust your sails to the wind | 1,354 Posts
- #20,051
- Nov 2, 2010 11:15am Nov 2, 2010 11:15am
Hey guys,
been a while since I last posted, hope you're all keeping well. To the newcomers - the thread is worth it. It may not be for everyone, but hey - neither is trading
So with a scratch over 24 hours to the most awaited market event here's what some of the elephants calculate it may lead to (I know this may not be new to some of you but still worth sharing, IMHO).
Also on the EU front Irish bonds are crashing big time with the spread to the Bund widening massively today, ECB was reportedly doing damage control by buying large chunks of Irish bonds. Just when we thought it's all about the dollar-related news tomorrow...
Rgrds
S
been a while since I last posted, hope you're all keeping well. To the newcomers - the thread is worth it. It may not be for everyone, but hey - neither is trading
So with a scratch over 24 hours to the most awaited market event here's what some of the elephants calculate it may lead to (I know this may not be new to some of you but still worth sharing, IMHO).
Also on the EU front Irish bonds are crashing big time with the spread to the Bund widening massively today, ECB was reportedly doing damage control by buying large chunks of Irish bonds. Just when we thought it's all about the dollar-related news tomorrow...
Rgrds
S
- #20,052
- Nov 2, 2010 1:57pm Nov 2, 2010 1:57pm
- | Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,047 Posts
Hi,
that is not so difficult: the 3 kgds (EU,UJ,GBP)
If I remember right fti has posted a screenshot in the early days of this thread with 9 charts on it: the 3 kingdoms on M5, M15 and H1 (But I'm not sure about the timeframes).
Cause I'm dancing one notch more short term than him i would take 3 kgds on M1, M5 and M15. M5 would be my main trading chart, M1 for timing and momentum detection. M15 for reversal pattern etc. And in background I would have H1 charts, to reassure the recent trend respectively its possible change.
But I have to...
I will add little to this thread.
I last wrote but write again, why "more minimalistic".Maybe it will help someone.
Quote FTI:
"what is the most fresh fooprint? the line charts, right,as you go up the time scale, the closest fresh footprints would be?
if you get into trouble with the 5 min foot prints, then you have to zoom out , right?
so what is the best outward zoom you can get?If you still in trouble you keep zooming out to see bigger picture, right?when you keep doing that you will ultimately come to day and week, right?As you zoom out to reaccess your risk, your MM will keep snowballing on you.
(Don't think because you use 5 min charts you cannot trade day positions.
Only that the short charts are giving you freaher clues of what this woman is doing.)
But if you have to zoom out to daily charts , probally your initial positions are already sunk.and the Money required to sustain is normally way beynd your capacity esp if you are leveraged.So whats the safest tenure?Least painful will be?
When you are in profits, you also want to zoom out to see if you can ride ,right?So what is the strategy, MM, MO now ?
When you are in profits, you also want to zoom out to see if you can ride ,right?
So what is the strategy, MM, MO now ?
Lets say you bad, are zooming out and if you are trading against changed pictures, you know you are "dead in the waters"
So what must you do? If you turn, you lose ground, so you have to decide to trade against trend or sink. right?
When this happens , what is the mindset to adopt? If you decide to fight instead,
you are trading against the trend, so what should be the mindset, strategy & MO?...
Look, I had said many times, S/R means nothing, only the way she dances it.
He dance sequense can lead you either thru it or on it, IT MEANS NOTHING.
Patterns tells you what type of MM is most likely. Instead you think about pattern when you should be reviewing strategy and position, How to protect your book if you are wrong , how to prepare for attack, what the arkets mode is, These are the important things to be thinking of. You already got PA done yet you keep at whats's being shown, instead of preparing your book...
In simple language, I Think some traders may be thinking from too many perspectives that they are paralysed from prudent action and reaction to market flow.
(too much analysis, not enough strategic following).
( too much comfirmation required before action or corrective action.)
( too much intelligence, lack of confidence)
This could be reasons why some cannot dance.
When this was my frame of mind this morning session, I COULDN'T DANCE!!.
Which was the reason I cut loose the session abruptly.
As I reset my thoughts from booked exposure, The rhythm returned.
If positioning was bad, and the trader reverts back to analysis, then the whole process collapses into hope.And a host of subjectivity and egoistical processes begins.
Which will paralyse the traders determination and create illusional thinking."
PS
Happy trade for all.
Regards
- #20,057
- Nov 2, 2010 3:00pm Nov 2, 2010 3:00pm
- | Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,047 Posts
Hi Gro,
thanx for your input.
That was exactly, what I hoped for ;-)
Good to see again here in this thread.
You have got a little quiet the past days ....
Regards,
Niels
Your broadcasts are amazing, best work
My view on real-time online chat ... my feel of rhythm breaks down, only one "line" in the graph
Be careful and lay strong rules :nerd:
PS ... "but more eyes = see more things"
Thanks for your work here