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Silent Service Method

  • #11,161
  • Nov 1, 2010 1:06pm Nov 1, 2010 1:06pm
Hi, what a great thread, i have been trading s/r and PA for a few months now, generally on the lower tf's, and i should point out that a few months ago i wasnt even aware what forex was....

anyhow, my instinct has from the start told me that this will be about a way of thinking and seeing rather than any tool you stick on your chart to tell you which way to go.... nothing in life is that easy!.

anyway im rambling, but im reading through the thread and im stuck on 1 mental picture im trying to form... so dont bash me too hard if this is a stupid question (and i am going to read the whole thread)

e/u right now is in 1 of our areas to watch 1.3800 to 1.4100.... major s/r, and looking very much like a retrace of a downtrend (although it could go up i know, i am favouring a short, just how i see it)..ok, now i go down to the 4hr to look for some price action to enter..... i can see loads of pins and hammers in the 4hr tf..... how do we decipher the one!...

hope this is clear, and once again im loving this thread, this is the sort of trader i want to be!
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  • #11,162
  • Nov 1, 2010 1:12pm Nov 1, 2010 1:12pm
Quoting darrenlittle
....

e/u right now is in 1 of our areas to watch 1.3800 to 1.4100.... major s/r, and looking very much like a retrace of a downtrend (although it could go up i know, i am favouring a short, just how i see it)..ok, now i go down to the 4hr to look for some price action to enter..... i can see loads of pins and hammers in the 4hr tf..... how do we decipher the one!...
Hi Darren,

Welcome!

The other guys will likely give you better feedback as they've been at it longer however I am pretty sure they will suggest working on weekly timeframes and watching the daily chart for entries.

At the moment I see us in a sideways consolidation pattern leading into the US election and the Fed, MPC, BOJ meetings at the end of the week so taking a longer term position here in a USD denominated pair holds a lot of event risk. The weekly candle that closes this Friday evening will be a tell tale I would think.

I am currently short EU though on shorter timeframe trades and watching the RSI, longer term MACD and a few other cross checks I use it would appear upside is limited at the moment. I will be flat the market though come Wed.

Cheers,

4x.
  • #11,163
  • Nov 1, 2010 1:17pm Nov 1, 2010 1:17pm
Hi All,

Someone has no doubt been watching this lately however out of tiredness I am going to post the charts for it anyway.

Looks to me like a reversal at monthly resistance, reversal at second high of a weekly double top formation and that it has just broken the neckline of a daily double top formation at 1.2890 area at the spike low.

I have placed some resting sell orders at the 38.2, 50 and 61.8 fib retracement levels of that whopping weekly reversal that closed last week so hoping to catch a spike during the AUD data due to be released tomorrow morning here in London around 3.30am GMT

Cheers,

4x.
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  • #11,164
  • Nov 1, 2010 1:45pm Nov 1, 2010 1:45pm
Darren, 4xaddict,

Considering I'm short the euro via EG, this might seem hypocritical, but in regards to EU, as much as I want to short it, it's printing a very textbook symmetrical triangle (which is a continuation pattern) right now, the wave-count is perfect, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a little more upside in this before the bears really get interested.

In my imagination, I can see an bullish break heading for the 161.8 fib extension of the last daily swing H/L, which is around 1.4270, especially as the triangle is finding support at the 127% FE.

The triangle by itself projects a target equal to it's base in distance from the current price after breaking out, in this case about 500 pips. If you instead read it as a pennant (with it's "flag-pole"), to pole runs from 1.2670 to 1.4150, projecting an upside target of 1480 pips, or 1.5630 (which I personally don't find believable).

Here's a chart:

http://i51.tinypic.com/aoolk4.png
  • #11,165
  • Nov 1, 2010 1:50pm Nov 1, 2010 1:50pm
http://i52.tinypic.com/242sjnm.png
  • #11,166
  • Nov 1, 2010 2:19pm Nov 1, 2010 2:19pm
Quoting Low
http://i52.tinypic.com/242sjnm.png
Nice pinbar forming too

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,167
  • Nov 1, 2010 2:34pm Nov 1, 2010 2:34pm
Quoting Low
Darren, 4xaddict,

Considering I'm short the euro via EG, this might seem hypocritical, but in regards to EU, as much as I want to short it, it's printing a very textbook symmetrical triangle (which is a continuation pattern) right now, the wave-count is perfect, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a little more upside in this before the bears really get interested.

In my imagination, I can see an bullish break heading for the 161.8 fib extension of the last daily swing H/L, which is around 1.4270, especially as the triangle is finding support...
I agree with your analysis Low. I am short into Wednesday as indicated but whilst price does not complete at least a daily open and close below 1.3580 I think there is little doubt EU wants to move higher. 1.50 is the logical medium term (3-6mth) target in my opinion just depends on whether the Fed continue with this madness or whether the elections herald something unexpected.
  • #11,168
  • Nov 1, 2010 2:38pm Nov 1, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting darrenlittle
Hi, what a great thread, i have been trading s/r and PA for a few months now, generally on the lower tf's, and i should point out that a few months ago i wasnt even aware what forex was....

anyhow, my instinct has from the start told me that this will be about a way of thinking and seeing rather than any tool you stick on your chart to tell you which way to go.... nothing in life is that easy!....
Welcome to the thread!

First of all, you are 110% in your thinking.....it isn't about tools, but more like a way of thinking. To be honest, it's more about not thinking too much - this shouldn't be a lot of work to be honest.

Also, I agree with you thoughts about drilling down to a shorter time frame based upon larger S/R area. In fact, that's the only way to go in my humble opinion.

As for the EUR/USD, let me show you what my chart is telling me: There is a move coming, and I agree that the risk is probably to the downside. However, we wont know which direction is "correct" until it happens. All we can do is wait.

The attached chart shows that the range on this pair is getting smaller and smaller, forming a wedge. It is as if they are waiting on something.....like maybe the elections, the Fed's statement, or even the ECB's statement. My guess is at least two or the three. I am thinking this pair moves after the Fed's announcement Wednesday afternoon NY time......
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  • #11,169
  • Nov 1, 2010 2:39pm Nov 1, 2010 2:39pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi Darren,

Welcome!

The other guys will likely give you better feedback as they've been at it longer however I am pretty sure they will suggest working on weekly timeframes and watching the daily chart for entries.

At the moment I see us in a sideways consolidation pattern leading into the US election and the Fed, MPC, BOJ meetings at the end of the week so taking a longer term position here in a USD denominated pair holds a lot of event risk. The weekly candle that closes this Friday evening will be a tell tale I would think.

I am currently...

I cannot tell you newer traders how much wisdom there is in this post. There is simply too much uncertainty in the marketplace at the moment to be guessing on the direction.

All things will be made obvious by the end of the week.
  • #11,170
  • Nov 1, 2010 2:40pm Nov 1, 2010 2:40pm
Quoting stewrigh
Nice pinbar forming too

Attachment

Certainly is a parabolic monthly move.....that should be considered as well.
  • #11,171
  • Nov 1, 2010 2:41pm Nov 1, 2010 2:41pm
newbie alert, just starting to get to grips with this, and working my way through this MASSIVE thread... and to be fair i think most people have come here with a fair bit of prior experience of these s/r p/a trading tech's

anyway, i know not alot is gonna happen until later this week, but want to check im on the right track,

see my chart, could go either way, but its hit this resistance and retested 2 more times, so if we get a nice pin and price breaks below, we short right?.

looking for set up's im getting, just! but entering im well and truly lost in the forest!
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  • #11,172
  • Nov 1, 2010 2:45pm Nov 1, 2010 2:45pm
Nice trade on the chfjpy Chris.

It's a pleasure to watch it plunge.
  • #11,173
  • Nov 1, 2010 2:47pm Nov 1, 2010 2:47pm
Chris,

Also, are you interested in that EG?

It goes back to the triangle you called 6-8 months ago. I'm trying to hang on and see what she gives me.
  • #11,174
  • Nov 1, 2010 4:17pm Nov 1, 2010 4:17pm
Quoting Low
Chris,

Also, are you interested in that EG?

It goes back to the triangle you called 6-8 months ago. I'm trying to hang on and see what she gives me.
Funny you should mention that - I was coming here to post this:

lol

I am going to try an hang on until .72 - we will see.
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  • #11,175
  • Nov 1, 2010 4:18pm Nov 1, 2010 4:18pm
Quoting darrenlittle
newbie alert, just starting to get to grips with this, and working my way through this MASSIVE thread... and to be fair i think most people have come here with a fair bit of prior experience of these s/r p/a trading tech's

anyway, i know not alot is gonna happen until later this week, but want to check im on the right track,

see my chart, could go either way, but its hit this resistance and retested 2 more times, so if we get a nice pin and price breaks below, we short right?.

looking for set up's im getting, just! but entering im well and truly...
Possibly, but the biggest concern I have is that the most recent low was higher than the one before it.
  • #11,176
  • Nov 1, 2010 4:58pm Nov 1, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting clockwork71
Funny you should mention that - I was coming here to post this:

lol

I am going to try an hang on until .72 - we will see.
Monthly Pin Bar is enough for me to hang on this...

Long term SHORT also for me IMHO.
My edge ===> Patience
  • #11,177
  • Nov 2, 2010 12:02am Nov 2, 2010 12:02am
Quoting Ben920FX
Monthly Pin Bar is enough for me to hang on this...

Long term SHORT also for me IMHO.
Then add a lot to the position. PUSH!!!!
  • #11,178
  • Nov 2, 2010 9:49am Nov 2, 2010 9:49am
eg daily, obvious interest long....

and sorry to keep harping on, but what would you look for as confirmation to pull da trigger?
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  • #11,179
  • Nov 2, 2010 11:19am Nov 2, 2010 11:19am
Quoting darrenlittle
eg daily, obvious interest long....

and sorry to keep harping on, but what would you look for as confirmation to pull da trigger?
Darren, am I misreading your post, or are you looking to go long EG?

It's a "textbook" silent service short for the record.
  • #11,180
  • Nov 2, 2010 11:48am Nov 2, 2010 11:48am
Quoting Low
Darren, am I misreading your post, or are you looking to go long EG?

It's a "textbook" silent service short for the record.
yes i was thinking long,

because it had gone through strong resistance, pulled back and bounced on the now support,

but now you say it, its a 50% fib retracement to resistance of the DOWNTREND!

ok, so is the entry 10 pips below the resistance at 0.8700?
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