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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #20,001
  • Oct 30, 2010 8:02am Oct 30, 2010 8:02am
Quoting MaMood
09:32 - preparing L2 attack on GU. Have to wait if PA gets rejected at 00 level
09:34 - seems the 3 kgds are getting in sync now, at least for last few M1 bars. It'S an indication for me to be alerted and prepared. Does not mean, that it wants to go in my direction, but that the probalilities to see any direction is increasing ..
09:37 - attention
09:39 - GU L2 @5898
09:40 - Watch EJ! It is leading the show...
09:41 - GU L2 out @5893
Looks like your having some fun, hopefully I can join ya and I can give another set of eyes to the party if the timing is right.
Ive been busy getting about 4-5 hrs sleep a night which is no good.
Plus trading the silver and gold, which was a text book finale to the end of the week I might ad..
Hopefully will be able to bring my mm to the 3 kingdoms playground next week and catch a game.

keep buying that physical.

Grab your chicklets and popcorn, for your viewing pleasure saturday afternoon at the movies .

Inserted Video
  • #20,002
  • Oct 30, 2010 12:43pm Oct 30, 2010 12:43pm
Here is something for amusement during the weekend. Here is the master of the art of deception

Inserted Video


Inserted Video


I wonder if it has read the art of war
  • #20,003
  • Oct 30, 2010 9:23pm Oct 30, 2010 9:23pm
Hi all,

Please pardon for my long post....This is my update on how it feels not to trade for more then a month...first i am trading for more then 2 years....now coming what it means...

First this will be different for different people...so in general this will pertain to people who are doing full time job and trading TAF type...

So before i start its good to know for last time i have been trading ... i have full time job and i get out of my house by 8.00 am and get back by 7 pm and then from 8.00 pm till anytime i am on trading on screen... i ahve been till 3am 4am on battlestation Mamood and other are witness to this...and then start over next day...

Now the current schedule is i get out of house by 8.30am and come back by 6.00pm ...go to gym in lunch office time...come back and go to gym again and then come home and read some book and be bed by 11 pm and out of office 8.30 am


Now i am sure this is not what u r looking to hear from me... but what i found out is


•I am more relaxed….

•My body is functioning much better…

•Gym results are better….I have lost 10 pounds in a month just could get extra time in gym

Mentally
•There is LIFE .

•Saw many mistakes I was doing TAF when I was away for this long....….if I sum up hanging on trade for long. .trying to predict the next wave…

•TAF needs lot of mental strength and it requires the love of Forex

•Also I realized how I was STUCK with an idea for long…like Long USD for entire week come time…

•This month also made me deeper meaning of “DANCING” and “NIMBLE”.

•I NEED TO TAKE TIME OFF FROM TRADING TIME TO TIME.

•We have scorpio of digging our own grave…

•At some point the trading becomes so much like you…its like some one show u mirror on screen and we are trading on basis of EGO rather then market.

•Ego can kill you at this place faster then anywhere else.

•Losing money is 10 times faster then making money here and that’s why save your capital.


Forex is fkng Tough business its gonna strip you before you become little profitable… and even then u will get loss… the only thing that can make u go through is “LOVE OF FOREX” and it should not be ONLY money ….Start listening people(specially loved ones )/market are there for reason e.g. EU gave many signal if u open H4 that 1.37xx is great place to buy and 1.39xx is great place to sell….point is are we listening.
With all I can say this its just awakening and I am back in forex by next week.

Sorry for this long post and if i blabbered a lot


V
  • #20,004
  • Oct 31, 2010 2:50am Oct 31, 2010 2:50am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Hi all,

Please pardon for my long post....This is my update on how it feels not to trade for more then a month...first i am trading for more then 2 years....now coming what it means...

First this will be different for different people...so in general this will pertain to people who are doing full time job and trading TAF type...

So before i start its good to know for last time i have been trading ... i have full time job and i get out of my house by 8.00 am and get back by 7 pm and then from 8.00 pm till anytime i am on trading on screen......
I agree that taking time off is a good idea for us apprentices.
I just finished up taking about a quarter off, the months july - sept.
One thing I noticed that stands out.
As I stood back and watched from a distance looking down at the battle on the field.
It taught me patience and to let things develop. I now realize not to rush my entry and not to over trade, striking at air so to speak.
We study our terrain and wait for the opertune time of least resistance to strike, and do so with the help of the 3 kingdoms.
If we we hit air realizing things not going as planned our inner calm allows us to recognize to reevalueate for a more opertune time.
  • #20,005
  • Oct 31, 2010 3:08am Oct 31, 2010 3:08am
Quoting sami29uk
Hi all,

i need help and assistance with entry and exits, where to enter and exit a trade. i understand support and resistance, trend lines but i'm always on the opposite side. i like the idea trading in the 5min and 15 mins timeframes. i look at 30 mins, 1 hr and 4 hrs charts to see which way is heading.

i would really appreciate this help because for the past 6 months i have been learning everything about forex, techno and fundmental analysis, indicators, everything BUT entry and exit is my problem. are my missing something?

please help...
look at the 5,15, 30, 1, 4 hr, dailys, as you recognize the trend, the range in each time frame, where your entry should be, where your rescues might be, try paper trading.
You will begin to get a feel for whats going on.
Did you read the first 250 pages ?
  • #20,006
  • Oct 31, 2010 4:20am Oct 31, 2010 4:20am
Hi FTI,

I'm still at thread 130+.

But thank you so much for your honest sharing and guidance!

I have been winning, losing, and losing for the past 1 year, until I found your thread. Since reading your thread, I have not lost a single thread in 3 weeks!

Thank you!
  • #20,007
  • Oct 31, 2010 1:40pm Oct 31, 2010 1:40pm
Hi firends,

have found the following info in another posting here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1501

[...]
USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 12.75 as nearly 93% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 7.94 as 89% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 14.0% higher than yesterday and 22.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 29.0% lower than yesterday and 26.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 9.2% stronger than yesterday and 8.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.
[...]

Do you have an idea what will happen, when there is a little more momentum to the south? A lot of weak hands will probably start to cover their longs. In this case we have a very volatile session ahead ...

Stay very very nimble!
These levels are dangerous!

CU,
MaMood
  • #20,008
  • Oct 31, 2010 1:59pm Oct 31, 2010 1:59pm
And another source of vola ..

SYDNEY, Oct 31 (IFR) - Greek PM Papandreou hinted on Saturday that he may call a new general election if his socialist party fares poorly in municipal elections next week. According to opinion polls, the ruling Socialist party in Greece is losing support ahead of next week"s municipal elections and a poor result might convince PM Papandreou to seek a mandate through a general election to carry through on aggressive reforms to deliver Greece from the fiscal crisis that threatened the existence of the Euro earlier this year. According to Reuters, financial markets are concerned that a new general election is a risk that could set back efforts to resolve the crisis. [email protected] Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets


Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)
  • #20,009
  • Oct 31, 2010 2:10pm Oct 31, 2010 2:10pm
Hi,
if you have ever asked you, why the JPY is one of the safe haven currencies, here is the probable explanantion:

[...]
The second source of demand for Japanese Yen is so-called safe haven flows. While the Japanese Yen is not a high-yielding currency, it is actually an excellent store of value. [This is one of the three primary functions that a currency should fulfill. The other two are medium of exchange and unit of account]. That’s because inflation in Japan is the lowest in the world, often to the point of being nil. Since 1970, the inflation rate has averaged only 3%, compared to 4.5% in the US. Over the last 15 years, inflation has been 0%. In other words, even if they are invested in low-yielding savings accounts, Japanese savers can ensure that 1 Yen today will probably still be worth 1 Yen 5 years from now. Foreign investors can take advantage of the same phenomenon, when they bet that the exchange value of the Yen will be equally stable.
[...]

Full story: http://www.forexblog.org/2010/10/why...ll-rising.html

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)
  • #20,010
  • Oct 31, 2010 2:26pm Oct 31, 2010 2:26pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi firends,

have found the following info in another posting here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1501

[indent][...]
USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 12.75 as nearly 93% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 7.94 as 89% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 14.0% higher than yesterday and 22.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 29.0% lower than yesterday and 26.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 9.2% stronger...
Looks like Oanda agrees they say about 84% are long so very vulnerable to cascades.

Mamood if you were forced to only use one monitor what charts do you think are most valuable to you? Hard question I know haha. Helpful for newbies like me though.
  • #20,011
  • Oct 31, 2010 2:56pm Oct 31, 2010 2:56pm
Recent opening quotes on dbFX:

EU 1.3961/65
GU 1.6043/46
UJ 80.31/33
EJ 112.14/17
  • #20,012
  • Oct 31, 2010 3:05pm Oct 31, 2010 3:05pm
Quoting mbqb11
fti your posts are extremely refreshing


and exactly how my mentor taught me to view the market. Great to see you posting around here, hope to hear more

Thanks

Mike
and.. on top of the difficulty to find the right entry and exit...:
do not forget that you need a super money management to really succeed.
  • #20,013
  • Oct 31, 2010 4:44pm Oct 31, 2010 4:44pm
Quoting Nverstop
Looks like Oanda agrees they say about 84% are long so very vulnerable to cascades.

Mamood if you were forced to only use one monitor what charts do you think are most valuable to you? Hard question I know haha. Helpful for newbies like me though.
Hi,

that is not so difficult: the 3 kgds (EU,UJ,GBP)

If I remember right fti has posted a screenshot in the early days of this thread with 9 charts on it: the 3 kingdoms on M5, M15 and H1 (But I'm not sure about the timeframes).

Cause I'm dancing one notch more short term than him i would take 3 kgds on M1, M5 and M15. M5 would be my main trading chart, M1 for timing and momentum detection. M15 for reversal pattern etc. And in background I would have H1 charts, to reassure the recent trend respectively its possible change.

But I have to say that it would be a little easier with 2 screens, to get used to this way of trading. But that is a very personal experience. I find it very helpful to have EJ and DOW permanent visible on my screens.

My daily preparation routine contains
scanning the news,
doing some chartwork for trend and bias definition
and round about 15 minutes of viewing M5 charts of EU,GU,UJ,DOW,EJ to get a feeling of recent correlations. for me it is very important to see all the before mentioned charts in parallel on my screen. Observing the PA in relation to each other pair gives me the feeling and timing for entering my first trades every day.
But there are also some seniors here, who are more minimalistic, like Gro for example.

Hope this helps.

Cu,
MaMood
  • #20,014
  • Oct 31, 2010 5:09pm Oct 31, 2010 5:09pm
Quoting MaMood

[...]
USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 12.75 as nearly 93% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 7.94 as 89% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 14.0% higher than yesterday and 22.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 29.0% lower than yesterday and 26.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 9.2% stronger than yesterday and 8.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.
[...]

And I wonder how many of those longs have their stops just below 79.75? I suspect the sitting ducks will be taken out.
  • #20,015
  • Oct 31, 2010 6:24pm Oct 31, 2010 6:24pm
Quoting Zoran
And I wonder how many of those longs have their stops just below 79.75? I suspect the sitting ducks will be taken out.
Supposedly "HUGE" stops below 80.00 under a presumed option barrier. Wouldn't be surprising as round #s are a fav.
  • #20,016
  • Oct 31, 2010 6:30pm Oct 31, 2010 6:30pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi,

that is not so difficult: the 3 kgds (EU,UJ,GBP)

If I remember right fti has posted a screenshot in the early days of this thread with 9 charts on it: the 3 kingdoms on M5, M15 and H1 (But I'm not sure about the timeframes).

Cause I'm dancing one notch more short term than him i would take 3 kgds on M1, M5 and M15. M5 would be my main trading chart, M1 for timing and momentum detection. M15 for reversal pattern etc. And in background I would have H1 charts, to reassure the recent trend respectively its possible change.

But I have to...
So the DOW and EJ are additional kds so to speak haha. Thanks for response. Monitors are fairly cheap so probably good investment.

If you could restart your learning experience would you have probably had a tick chart up in the beginning or do you thinking starting on the more traditional timeframes is better.
  • #20,017
  • Oct 31, 2010 7:05pm Oct 31, 2010 7:05pm
Careful friends - 100 pips on UJ in a minute
  • #20,018
  • Oct 31, 2010 7:12pm Oct 31, 2010 7:12pm
And back again - so definitely not an intervention ....
  • #20,019
  • Oct 31, 2010 7:18pm Oct 31, 2010 7:18pm
The funny thing:
After that furious finish on friday, I was waiting for some extraodinary action. So I decided to stay awake this early Asian session (01:17 my local time now).
But unfortunatley I must have been fallen a sleep for 5 minutes in front of my screens - and so I missed that jump ...
  • #20,020
  • Oct 31, 2010 7:34pm Oct 31, 2010 7:34pm
Quoting Nverstop
So the DOW and EJ are additional kds so to speak haha. Thanks for response. Monitors are fairly cheap so probably good investment.

If you could restart your learning experience would you have probably had a tick chart up in the beginning or do you thinking starting on the more traditional timeframes is better.
Hi again,

that is a difficult question indeed.
I'm not sure - using tick charts has made it much easier to me to detect increasing or fading momentum. But this very short term charts are polluting the mindest too. They will mislead you to a very hectic and nervous way of dancing. You will become a kind of "scalping dancer", far away from fti'S virtous way of dancing ....

Well - let me try to say it this way:
When you are practicing this trading style seriously for several month and you have still no idea, how to feel your lady, then give it a try.

Regards,
MaMood
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