Follow My Trade

I started trading Median Lines May 2009. Prior to this I spent 3 years trying to trade someone else’s system, alas without success.

Developing my own style re using the median line has required quite a bit of work and effort, I even thought I would abandon them at one point. But with some tweaks, I have found a way to use them that complements my personality.


What are median lines?

no doubt median lines represent different things to different people, but for myself they do just 2 things:
1] provide low risk entries
2] provide high probability exits

*and very importantly, median lines are only useful when coupled with market structure; ie., I dont take a trade just because I have a median line, I require solid market structure supporting the trade direction first


timeframes traded: mostly 240m and 60m; although I will sometimes view a 15m chart
trade times: generally, I search for trade set-ups from 0500GMT till 1200GMT
pairs: mostly, GU, AU, EU, GJ, EJ, UJ, EA, GA

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If you wish to learn more about the median line, I can recommend these 2 sites:
http://www.marketgeometry.com/
http://www.medianline.com/

There are also some ML traders here at FF, you’ll find them if you look for them.

AU60 +80

entry decision:
1] ML captures price well, forming resistance
2] immediate market structure: lower highs, lower lows
3] overall market structure: lower pivot highs, lower pivot lows
4] balance of probabilities: down

SL: -30

exit decision:
1] next ML -10

EA60 +80

entry decision:
1] ML captures price well, forming resistance
2] immediate market structure: lower lows
3] overall market structure: price moving sideways and at top of channel
4] balance of probabilities: down

SL: -30

exit decision:
1] next ML

EA240

Position 1: +90 (DD =7+spr)
Pyramid: +43 (DD =7+spr)

entry decision:
1] ML captures price well, price closes under ML signalling weakness
2] immediate market structure: lower lows, lower highs
3] overall market structure: price moving sideways in a channel
4] balance of probabilities: down

exit decision:
1] next ML & MS support

GU60

Position 1: -25

entry decision:
1] ML captures price well, upper ML forming resistance, then price closes under ML (yellow) signalling weakness
2] immediate market structure: lower lows, lower highs
3] overall market structure: price moving upwards, but possible change of behaviour (blue boxes)
4] balance of probabilities: down

exit decision:
1] SL triggered at AU interest rate news release

notes: would not mind seeing a move down to 1.5870ish before end of week, and short entry opportunity to go with it..........will let the market decide

EJ60

Position 1: +60

entry decision:
1] ML captures price reasonably well, and IMS and OMS added confidence
2] immediate market structure: higher highs, higher lows
3] overall market structure: 240 making higher pivot highs and higher pivot lows and had found support
4] balance of probabilities: up

exit decision:
1] next ML

notes: might try updating this jnl only on the weekends and keep the trading week FF free

AU60

Position 1: -12

entry decision:
1] ML captures price well, price fails to reach upper ML then breaks lower ML closing below it
2] immediate market structure: lower highs, lower lows
3] overall market structure: higher pivot highs and higher pivot lows; but with signs of change: IMS and 240 at resistance ???
4] balance of probabilities: dn

exit decision:
1] set-up failing = exit

notes: SL of 27 would have kept me in this trade and seen target reached, but set-up had failed = exit

EA60

Position 1: +90 (DD=7)

entry decision:
1] ML captures price well, price finds good support above ML
2] immediate market structure: higher highs, higher lows
3] overall market structure: price has had a good run down, found support at the ML, and now retraces
4] balance of probabilities: up

exit decision:
1] next ML

notes:

AOI

ML Probabilities

GA60

Position 1: missed trade (DD=2)

entry decision:
1] ML captures price well, price hooks below and closes below ML
2] immediate market structure: lower highs, lower lows
3] overall market structure: down
4] balance of probabilities: down

exit decision:
1] exit target = next ML +100 (set SL to +1), or +50 if not confident (NFP, AU@resistance etc)

notes: follow-up on AOI post

GA60

Position 1: +40 (DD=17)

entry decision:
1] ML captures price well, price hooks above and close above ML
2] immediate market structure: higher highs, higher lows
3] overall market structure: down
4] balance of probabilities: up

exit decision:
1] early exit due to NFP

notes: AU/GA negative correlation; AU at resistance and falling

+90 (DD=16)

price is clearly in a down-trend, hooks and closes under ML, exit next ML

-29

lower lows, lower highs, price hooks and closes under ML, target (+50) next ML, stopped

+97 (DD=25)

price is clearly in a down-trend, hooks and closes under ML, exit next ML (50%)

+164 (DD=9)
+120 (pyramid signal given)

entry decision:
1] ML captures price well = reliable
2] immediate 240m highs and lows down
3] 60m pivot highs and lows down
4] balance of probabilities down

exit decision:
next ML

personal reminder/note:
chaos and complexity to clarity and simplicity..........how to pass through the gateless gate?!

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI