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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #19,901
  • Oct 27, 2010 3:14am Oct 27, 2010 3:14am
Quoting MaMood
Oh shit - that is very bad in such a market.
Wish you good luck.
MAy be have the opportunity to hedge positions with another broker, till the other one is back online ....
luckily I closed my 2 positions seconds before it went off, lol.

anyway, support told me that their system had rebooted (what?) and now I am missing 3 bars on the 5min chart lol.
  • #19,902
  • Oct 27, 2010 3:20am Oct 27, 2010 3:20am
Quoting piccolo
luckily I closed my 2 positions seconds before it went off, lol.

anyway, support told me that their system had rebooted (what?) and now I am missing 3 bars on the 5min chart lol.
Cool - as long as you are not missing several thousand Euro's ;-)
  • #19,903
  • Edited 3:41am Oct 27, 2010 3:27am | Edited 3:41am
BTW: Flip area for EU is around 1.3865. Flipping when breaking through this area with fulminant momentum ....

Flip arae for GU 1.5840 ....


Edit:

Some "maths" of my flipping calculus.
When reaching the mentioned area for cable I have lost cummulative
45 pips with 6 lots = 270 PipLots
I'm calculating my flip to reach BreakEven in 10 Pips (depending on momentum)
270 PipLots / 10 pips = 27 lots
So that will be my skewing for doing the flip if the parameter are as expected ....

And now you know, why you have to be very very sure, that the timing is very right, when you do your flip. In relation to the strong exposure increase you will not have the ammunition to flip very often ;-)
  • #19,904
  • Oct 27, 2010 3:45am Oct 27, 2010 3:45am
Quoting MaMood
...

Some "maths" of my flipping calculus.
When reaching the mentioned area for cable I have lost cummulative
45 pips with 6 lots = 270 PipLots
I'm calculating my flip to reach BreakEven in 10 Pips (depending on momentum)
270 PipLots / 10 pips = 27 lots
So that will be my skewing for doing the flip if the parameter are as expected ....
Mamood:

Just curious: what is the leverage that your broker has given you, and which broker do you use?

Thanks in advance.
  • #19,905
  • Oct 27, 2010 3:47am Oct 27, 2010 3:47am
L3 rescue deployed @ 5816
L3 rescue out @ 5805

Edit: What does that mean for my planned flip?
Rescued 5 Lots * 11 pips = 55 PipLots
cummulative Loss in flipping area: 270PipLots - 55PipLots = 215 PipLots.
-> Flip size reduced to 21.5 lots
  • #19,906
  • Edited 4:27am Oct 27, 2010 3:51am | Edited 4:27am
L3 rescue deployed @5808

Edit: L3 out @5797
Started rescueing because of short term momentum in 3 kgds wiht all 3 kgds in sync ...
(resulting flip size would be only 16 lots now)

Edit: L3 rescue @5802
L3 out @5806 (grrrrr) UJ is running in wrong direction ....

Still prepared for flip but for next rescue as well ...

Edit: UJ is diving. All prepared for flip now ...

Edit: rescue L3 @5828
Edit: Still in L3 cause UJ starts rising ...
Edit : L5 in @5823 (eyes on EJ, seems to lead now ...)
Edit: L5 + L3 out @5817 (+55 L3, +91 L5), means I'm in profit now with all GU troops, so I can wait what will happen next.
Sorry for getting behind realtime reporting - There was much to do an EU also ...

Will stop my online session now. And focus on the chart solely.
Juts wanted to show you some more insights about my flip scenario. But fortunatley it was not needed ...

CU,
MaMood
  • #19,907
  • Oct 27, 2010 6:31am Oct 27, 2010 6:31am
Hi again,

back from lunch.

For those that are interested in: I have not flipped, despite we have gone above 5840 arae with good momentum. But due to my rescues I was able to reduce sizes back to scout with some profits in my back.

EU is back to 3800 level too. After my rescues my av price was at 3825, so I was able to scale back to scout size. Waiting for mroe direction now. Checking EU H1 is still a clear downtrend ...

So let's see, what the US boys will bring this european afternoon ...

BTW: Is anyone of you using the "flip" as standard MO?
  • #19,908
  • Oct 27, 2010 7:24am Oct 27, 2010 7:24am
US figs ahead in around 5 minutes ...

Atm I'm squarred, no scouts out.
Will wait what the news will bring ...
  • #19,909
  • Oct 27, 2010 7:46am Oct 27, 2010 7:46am
Just for info:

LONDON, Oct 27 (IFR)- With a broad based change in the USD picture the idea of a bigger and more protracted adjustment in USD/JPY is more paliatable. The turning down of the QE heat and associated caution ahead of next week's FOMC event risk has the potential to alter the forex landscape and perceptions.
[...]

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)
  • #19,910
  • Oct 27, 2010 8:00am Oct 27, 2010 8:00am
BTW: Is anyone of you using the "flip" as standard MO? -Mahood

Mainly use rescues. Often think that I should have flipped after the event and in hindshight.

Having a good day in a small range with the EUR/USD so far. Ray
  • #19,911
  • Oct 27, 2010 8:03am Oct 27, 2010 8:03am
Quoting 1234
BTW: Is anyone of you using the "flip" as standard MO? -Mahood

Mainly use rescues. Often think that I should have flipped after the event and in hindshight.

Having a good day in a small range with the EUR/USD so far. Ray

Thanx for your answer.
What is the reason for not to flip?
The permanent fear to be wrong with your chart reading?
  • #19,912
  • Oct 27, 2010 8:31am Oct 27, 2010 8:31am
Just for info:

LONDON, Oct 27 (IFR) - Greek bonds might be getting hammered but the Euro is little altered, with quasi-official buying limiting the latest EUR/USD dip to keep the pair steady in the lower-1.38s. [email protected]
Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

Disclaimer: Be aware of possibel Cow Dung included ;-)
  • #19,913
  • Oct 27, 2010 9:06am Oct 27, 2010 9:06am
After recent fig release I'm long USD again ...
But careful, situation is not that clear ....
  • #19,914
  • Oct 27, 2010 9:28am Oct 27, 2010 9:28am
Phew - little bit whippy. But also good opportunities to scale in and out ...

Edit: DOW is fighting with 11000 level. A break will give some more room for USD Bulls ....
But the ladies will tell us ..
  • #19,915
  • Oct 27, 2010 10:09am Oct 27, 2010 10:09am
Mamood, just wanted to thank you for taking the lead on the thread while fti is away. You are doing a great job my friend! FYI -- short the E/J and the E/$ now with multiple positions, taking advantage of the worries re: QE2 I guess. Ride 'em cowboy!
  • #19,916
  • Oct 27, 2010 10:30am Oct 27, 2010 10:30am
Quoting GEfx
Mamood, just wanted to thank you for taking the lead on the thread while fti is away. You are doing a great job my friend! FYI -- short the E/J and the E/$ now with multiple positions, taking advantage of the worries re: QE2 I guess. Ride 'em cowboy!
Hey GEfx,

thanx for your kind words
Finally it is a great lesson for me, cause keeping a proper mindset is challenging ...

Cool - that your doing well!
Wish you all the best!

Cu,
MaMood
  • #19,917
  • Oct 27, 2010 11:02am Oct 27, 2010 11:02am
Well the Man of this thread for some time......... ....



I am planning to write a big post later today or on weekend what i found/felt for not trading for a month....some of the important things it has made me realized.....


Nice job Mamood...keep it up.......

V
  • #19,918
  • Oct 27, 2010 12:40pm Oct 27, 2010 12:40pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Well the Man of this thread for some time......... ....



I am planning to write a big post later today or on weekend what i found/felt for not trading for a month....some of the important things it has made me realized.....


Nice job Mamood...keep it up.......

V
Thanx Vick for you short visit.

Hope you ahve get used to live near Wall Street in the meantime ;-)

I'm very curious about your experiences with staying away from your battlestation. As you might know, I have not traded from end of January till my comeback a few weeks ago. And I have to say it was a very important time for my trading.

But let's see what experiences you have made...

CU,
Niels
  • #19,919
  • Oct 27, 2010 6:58pm Oct 27, 2010 6:58pm
I do.

Just my personal experience:

I rank the trading components of this tactic in term of difficulty to master from easy to difficult:

1. rescue
2. attack
3. flip

Flipping, if not done properly will end up get caught at both ends. And when that happen, I will hold on to my mouse and reacess - thinking how to out myself out of the hole .


Quoting 1234
BTW: Is anyone of you using the "flip" as standard MO? -Mahood

Mainly use rescues. Often think that I should have flipped after the event and in hindshight.
  • #19,920
  • Oct 27, 2010 8:16pm Oct 27, 2010 8:16pm
new day and looking to put scout in, watching e/u 3796 area.
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