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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #19,861
  • Oct 25, 2010 8:58am Oct 25, 2010 8:58am
Who wants to open an "Options 101" thread? It's bout time to learn this stuff.

LONDON, Oct 25 (IFR) - EUR/USD trades in the low-1.40s, with the briefest of drifts lower managing to probe the pair to an 01 low ahead of the 1.4000 expiries. Expect short-term dips into the upper-1.39s to remain supported but some aggressive players may target the stops layered in through the high 1.39s to help force a deeper pop lower. [email protected]

LONDON, OCT 25 (IFR) - 2mth USD/JPY 77.50 JPY calls have gone through recently at 13.35, which compares with 2mth atm around the 12.0 level. Recall earlier in London - 3mth 75.00 JPY calls were paid at 14.5 on some USD 400mln, which came in around 2.5 vols above the atm. [email protected].
  • #19,862
  • Oct 25, 2010 12:55pm Oct 25, 2010 12:55pm
Quoting piccolo
Who wants to open an "Options 101" thread? It's bout time to learn this stuff.

LONDON, Oct 25 (IFR) - EUR/USD trades in the low-1.40s, with the briefest of drifts lower managing to probe the pair to an 01 low ahead of the 1.4000 expiries. Expect short-term dips into the upper-1.39s to remain supported but some aggressive players may target the stops layered in through the high 1.39s to help force a deeper pop lower. [email protected]

LONDON, OCT 25 (IFR) -...
Hi piccolo,

I'll be one of the first who would subscribe such a thread. But unfortunatley I'm not the one who can start it. Have no knowledge about that stuff. Will read some books about the option math in the near future ...

But is there no one, who has some deeper knowledge about options here in TAF family? Come on. Don't hesitate and pull that thread up - pleeeeeeease!
  • #19,863
  • Oct 25, 2010 1:20pm Oct 25, 2010 1:20pm
Just to keep in mind, when time has come:


[...]
. "There is still a risk we could see a dollar rally," she said. ""Republicans could take over a majority in Congress Nov. 2," a view that is widely seen as a dollar positive with less overall political support for stimulus measures, she said. "The risk of the [Federal Reserve] disappointing is high," in terms of the size of a new stimulus package when it meets Nov. 2-3 and decides on further action--which most have already priced into the dollar and believe is a foregone conclusion--she said.
[...]

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)
  • #19,864
  • Oct 25, 2010 3:36pm Oct 25, 2010 3:36pm
Hey guys,
I happen to have some knowledge on the options matter but I'm definitely not the guy with enough knowledge to start such a thread. Also, given the much more quantitative essence of the subject I don't think it would be possible to pass knowledge like that on a forum. Nevertheless, if you have already started started looking into the subject you may wanna go through TAF again - you will find that fti actually drops a very good number of clues throughout it.

Rgrds
S

Quoting MaMood
Hi piccolo,

I'll be one of the first who would subscribe such a thread. But unfortunatley I'm not the one who can start it. Have no knowledge about that stuff. Will read some books about the option math in the near future ...

But is there no one, who has some deeper knowledge about options here in TAF family? Come on. Don't hesitate and pull that thread up - pleeeeeeease!
  • #19,865
  • Oct 25, 2010 3:39pm Oct 25, 2010 3:39pm
Quoting mijamoto
hi guys Eh I got slapped and punished from a market again I lost 40% of my micro account, because I was not serious and didnt pay attention to fx at all. Bought some UY calls around 85 and 86 for 10% of my account now I had to clear my positions, unfortunately Now I am total I dnt know what to do in my life. I do lots of sports, I go to faculty (study economy), but skip a lot as I feel so so bored there, I have subjects which I dont like, but in FX I also f... up as I dont work on it. Fortunately I am just 20 and I have no idea wats my future...
Sorry to hear about your situation, but you are young and have lots of time to make decisions and survive your mistakes. Good luck!
  • #19,866
  • Oct 25, 2010 5:35pm Oct 25, 2010 5:35pm
Quoting mijamoto
hi guys Eh I got slapped and punished from a market again I lost 40% of my micro account, because I was not serious and didnt pay attention to fx at all. Bought some UY calls around 85 and 86 for 10% of my account now I had to clear my positions, unfortunately Now I am total I dnt know what to do in my life. I do lots of sports, I go to faculty (study economy), but skip a lot as I feel so so bored there, I have subjects which I dont like, but in FX I also f... up as I dont work on it. Fortunately I am just 20 and I have no idea wats my...
Welcome to the real life!
Lesson 1:The General (YOU)?
Lesson 2:The Battlefield - Running Battle mindset?
What was written here about the "Decision"?

PS Be like water ... Life is also like water ... once on top, then back down ... :nerd:
  • #19,867
  • Oct 25, 2010 6:53pm Oct 25, 2010 6:53pm
Yeah guys I know its tough, I am very good at sql,(1st year passed all exams with avg 8.0 and I skip a lot and I am biggest extreme on my sql) but I go there just to have fun with my friends Otherwise I go next week to friendly match with austrian club in taekwondo, so its gonna be first time I compete in taekwondo lol. Ok what's now my problem is tht. Like we have guys my age who are masters at footbal, school, trading, modeling.... But I am good at many things but no where master so nowhere I earn some bucks. Like I like trading, but I cant spend whole day infront of comp, same thing why I gave up from chess. I like playin sports, but there is another obstacle no cash and also plenty of injuries. So nowadays if u wanna make a buck and living from it, u have to sacrafice sth, but I do all these things just from pure love to things if u understand me guys. all the best enjoy Thx for advices
  • #19,868
  • Oct 25, 2010 9:57pm Oct 25, 2010 9:57pm
Quoting MaMood
Hey, and if you have to much time this sunday, here is classical read based on Wyckoff's famous views on PA ...
(Found it on EURUSD thread)

CU,
MaMood
thanks for heads up on the little reading gems.
  • #19,869
  • Edited 11:04pm Oct 25, 2010 10:02pm | Edited 11:04pm
Quoting mijamoto
hi guys Eh I got slapped and punished from a market again I lost 40% of my micro account, because I was not serious and didnt pay attention to fx at all. Bought some UY calls around 85 and 86 for 10% of my account now I had to clear my positions, unfortunately Now I am total I dnt know what to do in my life. I do lots of sports, I go to faculty (study economy), but skip a lot as I feel so so bored there, I have subjects which I dont like, but in FX I also f... up as I dont work on it. Fortunately I am just 20 and I have no idea wats my...
use the minimum to trade, to work on your consistant gains.
how many times do I have to say will work for icecream cones ?
  • #19,870
  • Edited Oct 26, 2010 12:30am Oct 25, 2010 10:05pm | Edited Oct 26, 2010 12:30am
note taken e/u 3905 and 3973 area.
a/u 9889 watching how 9927 area responds
g/u 5716 watching how 5742 responds.
  • #19,871
  • Oct 26, 2010 1:41am Oct 26, 2010 1:41am
Quoting Setebos
Hey guys,
I happen to have some knowledge on the options matter but I'm definitely not the guy with enough knowledge to start such a thread. Also, given the much more quantitative essence of the subject I don't think it would be possible to pass knowledge like that on a forum. Nevertheless, if you have already started started looking into the subject you may wanna go through TAF again - you will find that fti actually drops a very good number of clues throughout it.

Rgrds
S
See if you can decipher this:

LONDON, Oct 26 (IFR) - USD/JPY Vols retain firmer levels with spot well within reach of huge 80.00 barriers and the threat of BoJ intervention still a factor. 1mth atm is around 11.75 having peaked 11.85 on the initial break to another new 15yr low at 80.41 y/day. We are still seeing 2-way flow both sides of current spot, while risk reversals are well supported for JPY calls but not actually much higher (1mth 25d quoted 1.25 and 3mth paid 1.9 JPY calls today) - helped by size purchase of 3mth 75's Monday (paid 14.5 in 400mln). 1mth AUD/USD vol supported at 15.0 since setback from new 12wk highs at 16.0 last week, with decent spot activity justifying current levels. EUR/USD dropped over 150pts from y/day's 1.4080 peak and 1mth vol now 13.5/13.75 from 13.7. Huge 1.4215 barriers roll off tomorrow and we may see more topside covering on any fresh advance in spot. 1mth Cable has met demand at 11.0 since setback from 3mth highs at 11.5 early last week. GDP today providing some event risk and may prompt early flow in short dates. Post FOMC dates still being sought and demanding additional premium in all USD related pairings. [email protected].
  • #19,872
  • Oct 26, 2010 1:57am Oct 26, 2010 1:57am
Good morning friends!

Keep this in mind, when the figs ae released. That could cause great vola, if the expectations are not met ...

LONDON, Oct 26 (IFR) - Rumours that the 08:30 GMT disclosure of UK Q3 GDP will be better than expected are supporting the Pound in early European trading. [...]

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)
  • #19,873
  • Oct 26, 2010 2:21am Oct 26, 2010 2:21am

LONDON, Oct 26 (IFR) - Stops above 1.5810 are being targeted as Cable toys with the offers above the figure.
[...]

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow dung included ;-)
  • #19,874
  • Oct 26, 2010 2:40am Oct 26, 2010 2:40am
I have been a pig today and lost on both sides on E/U. I probably have stepped out of bed on the wrong foot so will call it a day.

Maybe I should do some sports? haha
  • #19,875
  • Oct 26, 2010 3:05am Oct 26, 2010 3:05am
Quoting piccolo
I have been a pig today and lost on both sides on E/U. I probably have stepped out of bed on the wrong foot so will call it a day.

Maybe I should do some sports? haha

Boxing will do the job quite fine :-)
  • #19,876
  • Oct 26, 2010 3:22am Oct 26, 2010 3:22am
Age doesnt matter. I am 32, i was scientist, teacher, ensurance seller, loans seller, MLM manager, call centre operator, worker in fotovoltaic plant, pizza delivery boy, singer, composer, self-employed gardener and now, despite i earn money for funding account, i (will be) am finaly trader.


Quoting mijamoto
Yeah guys I know its tough, I am very good at sql,(1st year passed all exams with avg 8.0 and I skip a lot and I am biggest extreme on my sql) but I go there just to have fun with my friends Otherwise I go next week to friendly match with austrian club in taekwondo, so its gonna be first time I compete in taekwondo lol. Ok what's now my problem is tht. Like we have guys my age who are masters at footbal, school, trading, modeling.... But I am good at many things but no where master so nowhere I earn some bucks. Like I like trading, but I cant...
  • #19,877
  • Oct 26, 2010 3:23am Oct 26, 2010 3:23am
I guess someof you have made the same experience like in the lpast few days: When things are running really good, mindset is becoming more in danger every day. Especially when postiung here on FF ...



http://taskboy.com/img/ego.gif



Have to reduce my postings a little still I got back in shape ....

CU,
MaMood
  • #19,878
  • Oct 26, 2010 3:36am Oct 26, 2010 3:36am
Quoting MaMood
I guess someof you have made the same experience like in the lpast few days: When things are running really good, mindset is becoming more in danger every day. Especially when postiung here on FF ...



http://taskboy.com/img/ego.gif



Have to reduce my postings a little still I got back in shape ....

CU,
MaMood
rumor turned out to be fact on cable. in this case buy the rumor and then buy the fact again.
  • #19,879
  • Oct 26, 2010 3:38am Oct 26, 2010 3:38am
Quoting piccolo
rumor turned out to be fact on cable. in this case buy the rumor and then buy the fact again.

But stay nimble.
Cable has gone a good distance before fact was released ...

Edit:At the moment I'm shorting the cable dips agressively
Edit: with my finger on the "flip-Button" of course ....
  • #19,880
  • Oct 26, 2010 4:02am Oct 26, 2010 4:02am
CAreful now on Cable ...
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