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Lost in the Tunnel...

  • #321
  • Jan 7, 2006 10:56pm Jan 7, 2006 10:56pm
Hi S Power
Quoting xspowerx
Firehorse, this ones for you.

The reason you have trouble achieveing the same gains as Vegas states in his spreadsheet is because he uses the close of the 4hr 8 SMA and not the price of the bar! Its very confusing, and you must read it carefully to finally comprehend the pricing. It wasn't written in bold letters, and took me many times to finally catch it till now.

Having that said, gains can be much much different then stated.
Thanks for pointing that out. It's something I noticed but didn't pay too much attention to as I thought trying to do it more accurately would easily make it more profitable.
From the Vegas document
Quoting vegas
When taking profits we ignored fib numbers from the market price and instead used the 8 SMA line if it hit a fib number. We did this because it was much easier to calculate and took far less time than analyzing each bar on every chart with every pair. Note though, that this REDUCES profitability tremendously over time. The market is much more likely to hit fib numbers than the 8 SMA
If using the 8SMA line to calcuate the profit 'reduces' the profit, then I 'assumed' that calculating the 'close price/exit at limit' as accurately as possible would result in an 'increase' profits and proving the system was profitable would be a breeze!

However, at the moment, I cannot show to myself that this is the case, and if I am going to be trading it mechanically as per the rules, I cannot prove to my satisfaction that I will be able to achieve anywhere near the profit levels as stated in the document.

I would be grateful if there is anyone who is able to list out the trades that prove that if the system traded as per the vegas document rules would be able to achieve close to the results as presented. I've tried but have not been able to do this. I have posted my spreadsheet of trades above for anyone who has the inclination to find mistakes in my calculations.

Best regards
Alan
  • #322
  • Jan 8, 2006 11:20am Jan 8, 2006 11:20am
8 Tracks went out in the 70's.
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  • #323
  • Jan 8, 2006 1:56pm Jan 8, 2006 1:56pm
I've been off the ball with this system lately but I was thinking about it today (Uh-oh!) and wondered...can it be done differently..?

I'm considering modelling it on the triple screen system (see an example here) and just using momentum studies for weekly, daily & 4h.

So for example if the weekly is up, screen for daily dips that look to turn up on the 4h. You still need a handle on momentum changes that give false signals. Throw in some discretion and...hey presto!...you have another tunnel system. (I was thinking of calling it "Mojo". )

You could use the indicators to highlight exit points instead of fib lines. I could use a consistent set of ma's across all tf's for the indies. Right now the current (Vegas) system has different ma's across different tf's and you need to do different stuff on different timeframes. Too clumsy for my liking.

Until Vegas gets back with his new document and also me finishing reading all of Dial's stuff I won't be discarding anything yet. But this might be another interesting spin.

Some of my postings here demonstrate how it could work. Anybody up for some investigation???
  • #324
  • Jan 8, 2006 2:03pm Jan 8, 2006 2:03pm
Quoting diallist
8 Tracks went out in the 70's.
Oh yeah Huh? Never Mind!

I just spent several long nights studying the wrong lines applied to my charts,

It took Dial to ping me and call me on it! I now have the notorious distinction of posting a few Tunnel Analysis Charts in Bonehead Fashion!

If I could I'd delete those posts as they have no value to this discussion. If some one could please give me a clue or make that happen for me I would appreciate it!

WARNING: Bonehead trading practices are not for the Lucid, Competant or sober! Please don't try this at home!

HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #325
  • Jan 8, 2006 2:37pm Jan 8, 2006 2:37pm
Look to the right of the "Quote" button. You should see a small button that will let you delete your posts. If you don't have that button, just tell me the post numbers you want deleted and I'll do it for you.

BTW HeavyJ, I think you are one cool dude. You add a lot to this forum. Thanks for being who you are.

Quoting HeavyJ
Oh yeah Huh? Never Mind!

I just spent several long nights studying the wrong lines applied to my charts,

It took Dial to ping me and call me on it! I now have the notorious distinction of posting a few Tunnel Analysis Charts in Bonehead Fashion!

If I could I'd delete those posts as they have no value to this discussion. If some one could please give me a clue or make that happen for me I would appreciate it!

WARNING: Bonehead trading practices are not for the Lucid, Competant or sober! Please don't try this at home!

HJ
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  • #326
  • Jan 8, 2006 9:29pm Jan 8, 2006 9:29pm
Firehorse, I just did some backtesting on the EURUSD and found my signals relative to Vegas's about a week off (not aligned) but I gotta say his model generated me 342 pips with not one loosing trade.

I only did a very small period backtesting in Jan and Feb. This is how you read my spreadsheet:

On the left in the Weekly column, I posted the range of dates where the pips were rising.

Second column, I posted the 24/28 EMA Daily dates when they were in compliance with the signal generated by the weekly, in other words a bull run.

Third column, I posted the actual 4hr trades and made sure they were in agreement with the daily.

So as you can see, I have incorperated the '24/28 EMA's respectively' into the model which helped get rid of the 1 week lag. I cannot emphasize how helpful that is.

I only backtested this small period due to the fact that I have been programing my MT for a while and am not used to the system... and also that I am hungover from yesterday LOL.

Also note, I didn't include fibs in this backtesting. I also didn't put the dates for the trades but look within the periods given and you will see where I entered.

Tell me what you think.

-S Power
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Weekly.doc   32 KB | 500 downloads
  • #327
  • Jan 9, 2006 5:37am Jan 9, 2006 5:37am
Hi,
Quoting xspowerx
Firehorse, I just did some backtesting on the EURUSD and found my signals relative to Vegas's about a week off (not aligned) but I gotta say his model generated me 342 pips with not one loosing trade.
Thanks, I'll get back to you on this as soon as I've ironed something else out

Best regards
Alan
  • #328
  • Jan 11, 2006 1:22am Jan 11, 2006 1:22am
As there seems to be some confusion about the difference between primary and secondary entries, I've made up the graph below as an aid to understanding. Enjoy!
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  • #329
  • Jan 11, 2006 12:32pm Jan 11, 2006 12:32pm
I like that. It gives a more clear explanation.

However, that and fibs are the 2 things that I have no incorporated into my trading. I feel the units should be you choice of risk.

But I think vegas ment the units to be a way of quickly summing up risk management, implying that trades entered above or below the 55 (1.5 unit trades) are more risky and you should put less at stake due to that fact.
  • #330
  • Jan 12, 2006 8:34pm Jan 12, 2006 8:34pm
Does anyone know how to configure time setting in MT4? I know its GMT but I hate the way the bars line up with my schedual, LOL.
  • #331
  • Jan 12, 2006 9:24pm Jan 12, 2006 9:24pm
Quoting xspowerx
Does anyone know how to configure time setting in MT4? I know its GMT but I hate the way the bars line up with my schedual, LOL.
I raised this issue with metaquotes.net support.
I was told that trades time is determined by the server and can't be adjusted on the client terminal.
  • #332
  • Jan 23, 2006 5:27am Jan 23, 2006 5:27am
Where did everybody go ? Has this thread moved to somewhere else ?

I am quite new to Forex but was trading Futures for a few years. Since I live in europe the Forex hours are quite handy.

Someone dropped the 1-hour Vegas method in my mailbox. It took only a few hours to see the beauty of that beast. Beauty because of the simplicity and beast because of the chop around the tunnel as you all know of course.

Someone mentioned the 4-hour method and I started to search the web for more informations. Found not many infos BUT the most valuable --> this forum

Best wishes to all
Tom
  • #333
  • Edited 9:00am Jan 23, 2006 7:08am | Edited 9:00am
Hello Tom!

As to where everybody went.... I don't know. I've been traveling for the last week or so!

As you are probably aware the Fellow who penned the "tunnel" documents goes by the net handle "Vegas". If you have not read his 4Hr tunnel doc it is attached to the first post of this thread.

In that doc, as in the 1hr doc Vegas expresses that his tunnel methods are only models and are open to anyone to make what they will out of them.

There are two reasons I suspect that traffic has slowed a bit on this forum. but it is not because the 4hr Tunnel has been diminished in any way. In my opinion it is better than ever!

1.
"Dialist" who posts in this thread often has developed the 4hrtunnel "model" into a very powerful "system" he calls "The Knife" Several of the old Tunnel purists have migrated towards his section of the Private forum. (See "James 16 Group" in preffered services of this forum) Still if you decide to check out the 4hr Tunnel and have questions Dial or someone else will try to get you an answer. Vegas himself has been known to stop by!

2.
Vegas has just released a new document "Vegas Wealth Builder" I believe it is called and those of us whom have a great deal of respect for Vegas have been engaged in a discussion about the impact of that writing.

Thats all for now.


HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #334
  • Jan 23, 2006 9:51am Jan 23, 2006 9:51am
Quoting viennatrader
Where did everybody go ? Has this thread moved to somewhere else ?

I am quite new to Forex but was trading Futures for a few years. Since I live in europe the Forex hours are quite handy.

Someone dropped the 1-hour Vegas method in my mailbox. It took only a few hours to see the beauty of that beast. Beauty because of the simplicity and beast because of the chop around the tunnel as you all know of course.

Someone mentioned the 4-hour method and I started to search the web for more informations. Found not many infos BUT the most valuable --> this forum

Best wishes to all
Tom
Hi Tom, and welcome to the forum!

I can't add much to HeavyJ's excellent reply, but if you have any questions about the 4 hour tunnel method, just post them in this thread and I'll try my best to help you.

Diallist
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  • #335
  • Jan 23, 2006 2:03pm Jan 23, 2006 2:03pm
HeavyJ and Diallist thanks for pointing me in the right direction (thread).

Itīs good to know that this forum didnīt give up on the methods Vegas has kindly shared with us.

I already visited the VegasWealthBuilder thread and downloaded the manual and all the available MT4 indis.

Oh boy, so much valuable material but as a non native speaker AND slow learner ... my eyes are burning already

Diallist would you be so kind and send me an email about your private group and some hints about "The Knife"?

One more thing: Having found this forum was a relief at least. There are many Forex forums out there and I am sure it would be a mistake not searching for informations but the attitude, the overall tone and the way how people easily stumble from fight to fight and get distracted in those communities left me more than once behind with my mouth wide open.

Summa Summarum: I really love it here

Edit_01: Before I forget: HeavyJ the Vegas link you provided leads to MicroSoft.coM ... lol
  • #336
  • Jan 23, 2006 4:03pm Jan 23, 2006 4:03pm
Quoting viennatrader
Diallist would you be so kind and send me an email about your private group and some hints about "The Knife"?
Sure! Either click on the link in my signature below, or go to www.james16group.com for more information.

Dial
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  • #337
  • Jan 30, 2006 5:35am Jan 30, 2006 5:35am
Hi S Power,
Quoting xspowerx
Firehorse, I just did some backtesting on the EURUSD and found my signals relative to Vegas's about a week off (not aligned) but I gotta say his model generated me 342 pips with not one loosing trade.

I only did a very small period backtesting in Jan and Feb. This is how you read my spreadsheet:

On the left in the Weekly column, I posted the range of dates where the pips were rising.

Second column, I posted the 24/28 EMA Daily dates when they were in compliance with the signal generated by the weekly, in other words a bull run.

Third column, I posted the actual 4hr trades and made sure they were in agreement with the daily.

So as you can see, I have incorperated the '24/28 EMA's respectively' into the model which helped get rid of the 1 week lag. I cannot emphasize how helpful that is.

I only backtested this small period due to the fact that I have been programing my MT for a while and am not used to the system... and also that I am hungover from yesterday LOL.

Also note, I didn't include fibs in this backtesting. I also didn't put the dates for the trades but look within the periods given and you will see where I entered.

Tell me what you think.

-S Power
Apologies for the delay in answering but I've finally cleared my other stuff!

Your trade 4/1/04-16/1/04 was a secondary trade so only would have made half the 59pips on a standard trade size taking to it 30pips

My backtested trades for the same period. The program was set to exit on the 3rd fib so it would track the biggest move and wait for the 3rd fib or turn of 8SMA for exit.

Ticker Trade Date Price Ex. date Ex. Price Profit Contracts Cum. Profit
EURUSD Long 05/01/2004 01:59 1.263 07/01/2004 13:59 1.266 15 0.5 15
EURUSD Long 08/01/2004 17:59 1.2722 12/01/2004 21:59 1.275 14 0.5 29
EURUSD Long 20/01/2004 05:59 1.2378 23/01/2004 21:59 1.2596 218 1 247
EURUSD Short 02/02/2004 21:59 1.2412 03/02/2004 09:59 1.2477 -32.5 0.5 214.5
EURUSD Short 09/02/2004 21:59 1.2682 10/02/2004 05:59 1.2737 -55 1 159.5
EURUSD Short 10/02/2004 17:59 1.2691 11/02/2004 01:59 1.2679 12 1 171.5
EURUSD Short 11/02/2004 09:59 1.2678 11/02/2004 21:59 1.2709 -31 1 140.5
EURUSD Short 13/02/2004 05:59 1.2807 13/02/2004 09:59 1.283 -23 1 117.5
EURUSD Short 18/02/2004 17:59 1.2823 20/02/2004 05:59 1.2742 81 1 198.5
EURUSD Short 20/02/2004 09:59 1.2643 24/02/2004 01:59 1.2566 38.5 0.5 237
EURUSD Short 25/02/2004 17:59 1.2539 27/02/2004 21:59 1.2491 24 0.5 261

In your trade 4/1/04-16/1/04, it was broken up in my backtest because of the 8SMA turning down on 7/1/04 (I got 15pip accounting for secondary trade), and when it turned up again a new trade was initiated on 8/1/04 (I got 14 pips accounting for secondary trade).

Trade starting on 20/1/04, I got 218pips versus your 136.

From then on, all my trades were short because the weekly momentum had turned down so I'm puzzled about your remaining two long trades, which had no dates next to them so I could not be certain about matching them with anything. I've attached a chart with arrows showing the backtested trades.

From my perspective, the 5 trades in the spreadsheet does not prove a consistent trading system.

I've manually forward tested a system over a month clocking about 100 trades over 8 currencies which had really great results, only for it to bomb in month 2 and 3.

So for me, any system with test results with less than 100 trades has still to prove itself. Otherwise, in my mind, I would be gambling, because I would be making trades on a system without a positive expectation.

Please let me know if you spot any errors in my figures. In the figures above I have not accounted for partial entry if secondary trades enters above one of the fib levels. In those cases, I assume that the partial lot has already been closed out as profit so no partial lot is entered for that particular fib target which has already passed. I also have not put in limit exit for the partial fib levels which will also give a different pip result. If you have more accurate figures as a comparison than I will do a more accurate backtest.

Best regards
Alan
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  • #338
  • Feb 4, 2006 3:13am Feb 4, 2006 3:13am
Anybody have tried tunneling with other indicators like ichamuko? I think that can work like a filter and take more certain profits.
  • #339
  • Feb 4, 2006 8:47am Feb 4, 2006 8:47am
Quoting tomecki
Anybody have tried tunneling with other indicators like ichamuko? I think that can work like a filter and take more certain profits.
After strudying Vegas Tunnel systems for several Months now I have seen the addition of about any indicator or combo thereof to try and tweak results favorable.

I am not knocking on these folks, but I dont see the indicators helping any more than what the tunnel is telling you.

I have become some what of a tunnel purist! I believe that the probablilities presented by the tunnel, propper money management, And price action, at critical levels, as taught by james16 gives you the maximum edge.

I must admit I don't know a whit about ichamuko however.

Maybe you could post a chart and show how it improves profitability, longterm.

Anyway I hope you do well with your indicators and if you think they give you an edge.......then by all means.....

HeavyJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #340
  • Feb 4, 2006 2:58pm Feb 4, 2006 2:58pm
Quoting HeavyJ
After strudying Vegas Tunnel systems for several Months now I have seen the addition of about any indicator or combo thereof to try and tweak results favorable.

I am not knocking on these folks, but I dont see the indicators helping any more than what the tunnel is telling you.

I have become some what of a tunnel purist! I believe that the probablilities presented by the tunnel, propper money management, And price action, at critical levels, as taught by james16 gives you the maximum edge.

I must admit I don't know a whit about ichamuko however.

Maybe you could post a chart and show how it improves profitability, longterm.

Anyway I hope you do well with your indicators and if you think they give you an edge.......then by all means.....

HeavyJ
Well said, Fellow Purist!.
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