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vsa with Malcolm

  • #5,681
  • Oct 25, 2010 1:49pm Oct 25, 2010 1:49pm
This week is going to choppy price action I think ahead of fomc next week

The daily on gu and eu smell of distribution and tops forming , but they do not want to roll over and die just yet !!!

I focused on gu and es today .. missed eu.. gu was a complete pain to trade today very choppy and fater 3 trades managed +10 ... wow...

es pretty nice ... anyone with es look at the 15m in candle after ohusing news ... got sold into 1190 was entry for 1181 gap close.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #5,682
  • Oct 25, 2010 1:54pm Oct 25, 2010 1:54pm
Hi Malcolm,

Like you said ES has been behaving to VSA.... when it becomes easy as stealing from a child that will mean an impending crash just to weed out the weak... it all adds up. Similar to April. Buying on the dips will only reward bulls so much. Lets see what happens.... volatile times ahead. Straddle?

BTW today it didn't close the gap yet... 1 point off... I think will come down about 10 points ahead of end of session ... been taking too long to close it.

Jag
  • #5,683
  • Oct 25, 2010 2:00pm Oct 25, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting sidhujag
Hi Malcolm,

Like you said ES has been behaving to VSA.... when it becomes easy as stealing from a child that will mean an impending crash just to weed out the weak... it all adds up. Similar to April. Buying on the dips will only reward bulls so much. Lets see what happens.... volatile times ahead. Straddle?

BTW today it didn't close the gap yet... 1 point off... I think will come down about 10 points ahead of end of session ... been taking too long to close it.

Jag
jag look at the 15 about 2 bars back ... low volume down move to 1183 then seems buyers.

They are scared to take it down ahead of pomo tomorrow. I entered long 1183 , stop a few points ... target 1190 to 1195
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #5,684
  • Oct 25, 2010 2:02pm Oct 25, 2010 2:02pm
Yea I got in at the top and got out at that exact bar on the M5. I thought it would come down lower... because there weren't enough buyers to support the push down from the top (the stopping volume not as high as the volume up top). You're probably right... either way opportunity both sides.

Jag
  • #5,685
  • Oct 25, 2010 2:26pm Oct 25, 2010 2:26pm
Quoting sidhujag
Yea I got in at the top and got out at that exact bar on the M5. I thought it would come down lower... because there weren't enough buyers to support the push down from the top (the stopping volume not as high as the volume up top). You're probably right... either way opportunity both sides.

Jag
remember the pm ... gap close today buy dip tomorrow
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #5,686
  • Oct 25, 2010 2:34pm Oct 25, 2010 2:34pm
Did it close? I thought 1181 was close friday? it only went to 1182
  • #5,687
  • Oct 25, 2010 2:39pm Oct 25, 2010 2:39pm
Quoting sidhujag
Did it close? I thought 1181 was close friday? it only went to 1182
lol close enough ...

there is support 1182.5 area... saw stopping vol 2 times around 1183 , took my long there
1188 sellers .. if you look on 10 min this morning there was a high vol doji there also ...

10 min hit by sellers last 10 min 1188 , could takes us down to 1181 to 1180
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #5,688
  • Oct 25, 2010 2:54pm Oct 25, 2010 2:54pm
No close enough doesn't cut it lol it just hit it exactly now.
  • #5,689
  • Oct 25, 2010 3:01pm Oct 25, 2010 3:01pm
Quoting sidhujag
No close enough doesn't cut it lol it just hit it exactly now.
lol like the way they ramp it down into close 1181.5 with ultrahigh volume...

feds are such crocks .. there is no reason for that 7 point for nothing other than manipulation
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #5,690
  • Oct 25, 2010 3:13pm Oct 25, 2010 3:13pm
Quoting malcolmb14
lol like the way they ramp it down into close 1181.5 with ultrahigh volume...

feds are such crocks .. there is no reason for that 7 point for nothing other than manipulation
I got 1181 on my futures chart fxpro.. reliable data too.. It hit major buyers there... that was what I was looking for... volume similar to the open.

The other bar was just a throwoff to get buyers in... I expected it to dip further even at the end...
  • #5,691
  • Oct 25, 2010 8:05pm Oct 25, 2010 8:05pm
Quoting malcolmb14

The daily on gu and eu smell of distribution and tops forming , but they do not want to roll over and die just yet !!!
Okey, maybe you can put picture with real volume and some thoughts about distribution on daily?
Please.

Edit: Or maybe better to take H4 or H1 to see this distribution.
  • #5,692
  • Oct 25, 2010 8:22pm Oct 25, 2010 8:22pm
Sellers have been coming in the last few weeks harder than normal. But can be ultimate headfake the volume on the 19th at the end was pretty heavy and hasn't been matched yet. Should get a pop up with high volume to confirm.

In general the 9th week of a recovery has been very bullish... just looking at historical graphs.

LOL I know it sounds stupid but just a thought.... makes sense because it seems like its ready to fall but does the opposite to kill the sheep which are still very bearish on the market.
  • #5,693
  • Oct 25, 2010 8:49pm Oct 25, 2010 8:49pm
EU-H1
So, is that re-accumalation or distribution.
If we knew that, we could make some money.
I dont know.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,694
  • Oct 25, 2010 8:50pm Oct 25, 2010 8:50pm
I think it all depends on the fed and if its a POMO or REPO day...
  • #5,695
  • Oct 25, 2010 8:57pm Oct 25, 2010 8:57pm
Noup, SM is only using news to take money from herd, news do not drive the markets, money drive the markets.
You can see it over and over again.
Example, US get really bad economic news, and $ gets stronger, you see, no logic.
  • #5,696
  • Oct 25, 2010 9:23pm Oct 25, 2010 9:23pm
Quoting juhanimi
Noup, SM is only using news to take money from herd, news do not drive the markets, money drive the markets.
You can see it over and over again.
Example, US get really bad economic news, and $ gets stronger, you see, no logic.
not really illogical when you think about the incentive for the risk on, risk off trade. What really gets to me is the term "benign neglect" and i continuously wonder why there hasn't been a more populous move on the subject. Granted that officials may be wrong on their announcements but the fact that they continuously babble on that they believe in a "strong dollar" as it gets progressively weaker for the last 10 years simply confirms "benign neglect" is codeword for "fraudulent misinformation".

"We believe in a strong dollar" - "no you don't"
  • #5,697
  • Oct 25, 2010 9:33pm Oct 25, 2010 9:33pm
Quoting juhanimi
Noup, SM is only using news to take money from herd, news do not drive the markets, money drive the markets.
You can see it over and over again.
Example, US get really bad economic news, and $ gets stronger, you see, no logic.
What do you think POMO or REPO is???? POMO = money, REPO = blood

Theres logic to everything.. as stupid as it sounds. dollar goes down in many cases (confidence, good US news). You need to understand the fundamentals of this market to trade it.

USD is a safe haven currency and so is JPY and CHF. WHen they go up... commodities fall.

When the world gets good news.. .commodities rise first... risk assets. When the world gets bad news... risk falls.

US likes to think it is the world. Financially it is though.
  • #5,698
  • Oct 25, 2010 10:26pm Oct 25, 2010 10:26pm
sidhujag
Sorry, I really dont know anything about news, I dont care either.

****************************
Here is some thoughts about EU-H1.

Is that right, comments please.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h1.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #5,699
  • Oct 25, 2010 11:01pm Oct 25, 2010 11:01pm
Quoting juhanimi
sidhujag
Sorry, I really dont know anything about news, I dont care either.

****************************
Here is some thoughts about EU-H1.

Is that right, comments please.
Funny line !!! LOL--Nooow, You are a real trader !!!
  • #5,700
  • Oct 25, 2010 11:26pm Oct 25, 2010 11:26pm
I hope we all are real, or maybe this is just illusion.
Maybe longs today, have to wait few hours maybe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-m15.jpg Size: 157 KB
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