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Nanningbob 4h trading system ver. 5.0

  • #3,021
  • Oct 22, 2010 1:16am Oct 22, 2010 1:16am
new system, new thread
  • #3,022
  • Oct 22, 2010 3:56am Oct 22, 2010 3:56am
If I may add my 2 cents as a new poster to this thread (and having caught up from post 1) while the system does seem to be different enough to deserve its own thread, you could just consider catching up on the first 3000 posts as the price of admission.
  • #3,023
  • Oct 22, 2010 8:27am Oct 22, 2010 8:27am
Simplefied, new thread please...
  • #3,024
  • Oct 22, 2010 8:41am Oct 22, 2010 8:41am
Quoting pitou
Could someone program a TMA MTF indicator?
That would be great to see on the 1H chart the 1H TMA and The 4H as well.
Could it be possible?
Thanks to all,
Pitou

hello pitou,

here is the MTF TMA version.

with my next post i will show all some experimental analysis i did with the entries and the use of two TMA's. with this combination you will get razorsharp entries.

but this is part of another post.

Mediator
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 #MTF TMA CENTERED.mq4   4 KB | 688 downloads
  • #3,025
  • Oct 22, 2010 9:03am Oct 22, 2010 9:03am
Quoting McKeen
In addition to my post above here is the backtester ea for anyone who would like to try for themselves. TMA CENTERED must be in indicators folder to work.

Be prepared for a slow run though, since the indicator recalcultes all data on every call (and every tick if displayed simultaneusly) it results in the slowest backtest I have ever encountered. My little code only calls it once every HR but thats enough to show the point.

/ McKeen
Hello McKeen,
Thank you for your TMA backtest EA.
I carried out backtests as to many currencies.
Results are the same as you pointed out.
I noticed following feature.
On strong up-trend, price is apt to move between white and red line,
and sometimes breakouts red line.
On strong down-trend, price is apt to move between white and blue line,and sometimes breakout blue line.
I am thinking of entry rule on trend duration.
I want to use this EA as indicator.
How can I use or modify this EA as custom indicator?
Best regards.

tecona
  • #3,026
  • Oct 22, 2010 9:43am Oct 22, 2010 9:43am
Quoting Mediator
hello pitou,

here is the MTF TMA version.

with my next post i will show all some experimental analysis i did with the entries and the use of two TMA's. with this combination you will get razorsharp entries.

but this is part of another post.

Mediator
I am thinking somewhat along these lines. If you get a signal, you maybe below the lines on a 4H chart but not on the 15M chart. If you wait until price is also above/below the 15M or even 5M chart lines you get a more solid entry. The MTF maybe a very good idea if we can make an EA or indicator to work that way.
  • #3,027
  • Edited 10:32am Oct 22, 2010 10:12am | Edited 10:32am
Hi everyone,

What do you guys think about the usefulness of currency pair correlation maps in terms of directional probability on subsequent trades. Once a strong primary trade is identified (RWB check, outside gold lines check etc), a real-time correlation matrix can be used to predict the likelihood of a subsequent trade's direction... could be coded almost like another indicator. If a currency pair has a strong negative correlation factor as far back as 1 year, u know it is unlikely to have both trades appreciate in the same direction. Just a thought...

Cheers
  • #3,028
  • Oct 22, 2010 10:33am Oct 22, 2010 10:33am
Quoting nanningbob
I am thinking somewhat along these lines. If you get a signal, you maybe below the lines on a 4H chart but not on the 15M chart. If you wait until price is also above/below the 15M or even 5M chart lines you get a more solid entry. The MTF maybe a very good idea if we can make an EA or indicator to work that way.
well if you do this, i would still put the ea on the 4 hr chart. if you put it on the 15 min chart then your entry can be way too premature. i have tried this over the last week. it looks like a good entry on the 15m but then you switch back to 4hr and it is way too early. most cases ended up being in a runner. so looking at mtf im good with but i would be cautious when actually taking the trade based on smaller tf. dont' want to be caught in those runners we are so fond of
  • #3,029
  • Oct 22, 2010 10:37am Oct 22, 2010 10:37am
Quoting SirMatts
Hi everyone,

What do you guys think about the usefulness of currency pair correlation maps in terms of directional probability on subsequent trades. Once a strong primary trade is identified (RWB check, outside gold lines check etc), a real-time correlation matrix can be used to predict the likelihood of a subsequent trade's direction... could be coded almost like another indicator. If a currency pair has a strong negative correlation factor as far back as 1 year, u know it is unlikely to have both trades appreciate in the same direction. Just...
i have looked into all of this correlation crap a while back. it now makes my head hurt anytime someone mentions the word correlation. yes i know some pairs are correlated and some are reverse correlated and all that jazz. biggest problem is how do you know when they are going to be correlated and when do they just decide they hate each other? it seemed like every time i tried to take advantage of the so called correlation, they spread apart as fast as they could.

so you guys can pursue any correlation crap yall want to. im not gettin on board that train.

and btw: have you read the last 100 posts? we are no longer using the indis you are describing. we no longer are using rwb or sixths. just using tma. read back a few pages and catch up
  • #3,030
  • Oct 22, 2010 10:42am Oct 22, 2010 10:42am
another good reason to take two TMA's in one chart is, because you see in the picture is, that the yellow TMA band is movin' up and down with the red TMA band. this means that the yellow band shows the extreme price deviation from the red middle line. there you could have good entries if and only if price breaks out of the yellow outer band and the yellow upper/lower band is outside the red upper/lower band.

for confirmation of trade i use the RWB combo indi
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: doubletma.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #3,031
  • Oct 22, 2010 10:45am Oct 22, 2010 10:45am
Quoting jtmoore007
i have looked into all of this correlation crap a while back....
I agree... u don't want to be adding another layer of clouded misinformation Thanks for the info, I'll catch up.
  • #3,032
  • Oct 22, 2010 3:08pm Oct 22, 2010 3:08pm
I can't post my rookie question there, so hope someone here can help. I loaded the EA to the Experts folder on my FxPro Demo, and successfully got the charts set-up along with the Smiley faces top right. Problem is that orders aren't getting executed, though the EA has made lots of attempts. Down in the Terminal's Messages tab it displays the following message: "The Beast GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD OP_BUYSTOP order send failed with error(131); invalid trade volume

Also, though I have 4 charts of 4 different pairs up on the screen it seems to have only attempted to trigger trades on GBPUSD, though maybe the trigger criteria didn't meet yet on the others?

Can anyone guide me on this please? Does this have anything to do with it being a Demo account?

Thanks,
"As Kids we believe Anything is Possible; the Trick is to never forget it!"
  • #3,033
  • Oct 22, 2010 3:36pm Oct 22, 2010 3:36pm
Quoting teemo
I can't post my rookie question there, so hope someone here can help. I loaded the EA to the Experts folder on my FxPro Demo, and successfully got the charts set-up along with the Smiley faces top right. Problem is that orders aren't getting executed, though the EA has made lots of attempts. Down in the Terminal's Messages tab it displays the following message: "The Beast GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD OP_BUYSTOP order send failed with error(131); invalid trade volume

Also, though I have 4 charts of 4 different pairs up on the screen it seems to have only...
hello teemo,

it has nothing to do with demo account. it is because your broker maybe only allow lot volume with 1digit decimal lots. i don't know if the EA has a security request how low the minimum lot allowed to be. i think your broker start with minimal 0.1 lot and with 0.1 lotstep. some brokers start with 0.01 lot minimum and 0.01 lotstep.

i hope i could help you

regards

mediator
  • #3,034
  • Oct 22, 2010 3:40pm Oct 22, 2010 3:40pm
I dont know your answer

Go to rookie section. There is a thread there for newbie question about bobs system. I think there is one just for that Ea as well.
  • #3,035
  • Oct 22, 2010 4:34pm Oct 22, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting jtmoore007

................and btw: have you read the last 100 posts? we are no longer using the indis you are describing. we no longer are using rwb or sixths. just using tma. read back a few pages and catch up

Might be another good reason to start a new thread for Version 6. Some folk might be quite happy to remain using/discussing Version 5 http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #3,036
  • Oct 22, 2010 7:02pm Oct 22, 2010 7:02pm
Quoting teemo
I can't post my rookie question there, so hope someone here can help. I loaded the EA to the Experts folder on my FxPro Demo, and successfully got the charts set-up along with the Smiley faces top right. Problem is that orders aren't getting executed, though the EA has made lots of attempts. Down in the Terminal's Messages tab it displays the following message: "The Beast GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD OP_BUYSTOP order send failed with error(131); invalid trade volume

Also, though I have 4 charts of 4 different pairs up on the screen it seems to have only...
Change the lot size from .01 to .10 that should solve the problem. I dont think FXPro handles .01 trades.
  • #3,037
  • Oct 22, 2010 7:12pm Oct 22, 2010 7:12pm
Not a bad, but not a great week for me.

I closed 19 trades on demo, with a 15-4 win/loss ratio. Pips gained were 540, with 351 pips lost, for a net of 189.

I had a few divergence trades that I let run, and they never worked this week. When I just let the divergence trades run, price came back and they closed with 11 pips, 28 pips, and 33 pips. Each one would have taken profit at 45. Twice I moved the stop to 30 and then let divergence trades run, only to get taken out by the stop.

I also had two trades that got closed early by THE BEAST setting sell stops and taking out my existing trades. These both closed with a profit of 1-2 pips, and would have been winners. (Between these two things, I may have left as many as 170 pips on the table.)

The EAs I have been using open the trade at the close of the bar where the MAs cross. I thought this may have cost me some pips as well, but looking back, it appears that it would have made little or no difference this week. All the losers, would have been losers with any entry. I still think the entry for this EA is too late, and the entry on Price crossing the MA is too early. But that's from my backtesting, and not from any forward results I've seen.

I have four open trades, all in drawdown -- 71, 49, 15 and 8 pips. If three go against me, the week will be a net loss.

As it stands, I'm plus 1.9% for the week on these trades. And that doesn't stink, but its nothing like the 6% from last week. And the looming trades could either boost the results some, or take out all of the week's profit.

One other point. If I had moved up my stops early, I would have avoided 3 of the 4 losers. Three of them went to more than +25 at some point. But, if I did this, I think the overall effect on the gains might make this ineffective, even over just these 19 trades.

With take profit at 20, you need to have more than 80% wins to break even. I have serious doubts about sustaining that over the longer haul. My tests tend to show that losing trades tend to break away from the trade very soon. I don't have numbers to support that, but it's been my impression. Thus, my hunch (and it's really just a hunch) is that a small take profit is going to hurt the system in the long run.

Just my thoughts at the close of the week. I'm doing a long manual test of the EURUSD (about 6 1/2 years). It's mind numbing but still worthwhile. Have a good weekend, all.
  • #3,038
  • Oct 22, 2010 8:03pm Oct 22, 2010 8:03pm
Hi,

Regarding MA-crosses in the EA´s.

It is absolutely neccessary for any EA (and manual trading also) trading MA-crosses to initiate trade after previous bar has closed. If one wouldn´t do that there would be a lot of opened trades that in hindsight shouldn´t have been opened. Yes, this concerns manual trading also, because a cross is not a cross until the cross is defined. IE if one would trade on 0-bar (current bar) as soon as it is crossed, 3 times out of 5 the cross would retrace and when it closes it turns out that the bar is not an MA-cross after all.

/ McKeen
  • #3,039
  • Oct 22, 2010 8:49pm Oct 22, 2010 8:49pm
Quoting bluemele
This is good coding though. I still have to check out McKeen's.
Since here are two suppliers I will leave this to TCO.

/ McKeen
  • #3,040
  • Oct 22, 2010 9:11pm Oct 22, 2010 9:11pm
Quoting McKeen
Hi,

Regarding MA-crosses in the EA´s.

It is absolutely neccessary for any EA (and manual trading also) trading MA-crosses to initiate trade after previous bar has closed. If one wouldn´t do that there would be a lot of opened trades that in hindsight shouldn´t have been opened. Yes, this concerns manual trading also, because a cross is not a cross until the cross is defined. IE if one would trade on 0-bar (current bar) as soon as it is crossed, 3 times out of 5 the cross would retrace and when it closes it turns out that the bar is not an...
There may be other ways to skin the same cat.

I've been thinking that one way to approach this is to open the trade when two conditions have been met: 1) the 3MA has crossed the 1MA and 2) the RSI has hit the 70 or 30 level. Thus, the confirmation doesn't have to be on the close of the bar, but from another indicator.

Another approach would be to code the EA so that the MA must have crossed, and that it must remain crossed for a certain amount of time, whatever you want it to be. Thus, you set up a variable to see if the cross has occurred. And another variable to see if the cross is still in effect. A third variable measures the time difference between when the first became true, and the present time. When that goes beyond the threshold, then trade. If the averages cross back, then reset the first variable and start over.
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