Technical Analysis Fallacy

Battlestations - EU!!!!

Well - not as strong as exepected, but some nice pips so far ;-)
Oh - here we are ....

Careful - there is no quarantee that there is a continuation.
Move was triggered by the EU PMI flash and fueled by some LSs.
Now try to feel the music ....

UJ will show, what is possible on EU

Squarred now.

Jumped in with a L2 attack. Going always very strong, when I trade a news triggered break out in combination with some expected SLs.
Was waiting below with L2 still in.
Added L3 attack @ second run through 1.4000
added L5 attack @ second break through 1.4025
Squarred all @ retrace to 14040

Now I need to do an urgent phone call, but will trade actively the News release for cable in 15 minutes (if any opportunities provided ...)

Very strong turn in Cable since the last 40 minutes.
What ever we do, we have to be very very nimble!
This move up is looking a little dangerous to me ...

Figs are < as forecast

L2 attack short @5784 after the first snap back (sorry 5790)
L2 out @5779. Scou still in

Ok, now business as usual.
I'll folow the momentom flows of the 3 kgds.

I have to say, I was tempted to go short just before the news came out.
That upmove was looking very unsane. I guess there have been some "insider", who have pushed for a good entry for their shorts for the news release itself...

But I'm happy that I followed fti's teachings not to be predictive.

You may ask, why I do pay so much attention to fundamentals respectively news?
1. News are really good volatility provider for fast timed attacks or strong rescues.
2. I see the knowledge of basic fundamentals as a part of "knowing the terrain". It helps to judge the recent market situation and to find an appropriate bias for the dance.
I just wnat to know about the traps the market has placed in the underwoods ...

MaMood

Nice skirmish in the Fx kingdoms

Currently have 2 soldiers doing battle in EU

Long x1 39560
Long x1 40319

Was expecting a barrier around the 3980 cos if it breaks then the floodgate would opened... Bingo!!! But due to work & only using my iphone i was not able to capture the foray into 1.4000

How's the coffee MaMood? Need a strong java juice to stay awake now...

You seem to be very much on the ball. I didn't expect the E/U to go that high and shorted it prematurely, had to bite it. Made the loss back with a cable short and then some.

Hi Piccolo,

cool that you made you losses back again.

Yeah - there are days like today, when everything is in sync and all parts assembling together with out any problems.
But there are "bad days" as well, where I have to fight for every single pip.
But that's what we have chosen - living from trading.
And I like it very very much!

All the best to you!

CU,
MaMood

Just for info:

1119 GMT [Dow Jones] The latest Swiss National Bank data showing a decline in its euro-denominated holdings suggests its selling of euros is over, says Nomura. "The monthly bulletin showed sizeable reserve diversification out of euros in 3Q, with the bulk going into yen, Canadian dollars, and 'other'," says Geoffrey Kendrick. "We think the new 56% reserve share in euro is reasonable, and it suggests the SNB has finished selling euros for now." Furthermore, the increase in the "other" category (most likely AUD) suggests the SNB might be shifting to a broader asset allocation approach, he points out. ([email protected])

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

Hmmmh - I can't believe, but we will see ....

0927 GMT [Dow Jones] The market is clearly still jumpy about the risk of a fresh yen-denting intervention from Japan. An intervention immediately before the G20 finance ministers' meeting this weekend seems unlikely. Still, Citigroup notes talk that the BOJ "has been asking local banks what their staffing levels are like this evening, and also what liquidity is like. Inevitably this has prompted talk that another bout of intervention is imminent," it says. JPY is not falling on this yet, possibly as talk of the BOJ hitting the phones has been a poor indicator of imminent stings of late. Still, JPY sticks out as the only major currency holding steady while most others climb. USD/JPY is at Y81.03. ([email protected])

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

"EU Long L2 attack prepared, becuase of possible Momentum of SL break" MaMood

Good call earlier today. I started the day with a scout short EUR/USD at 1.3914 Did a small rescue and took a small loss. Later placed a scout long EUR/USD at 1.3956. added another at 1.3962 and closed both at 1.3973 Was not sure of direction and committed to lunch with friends. Was reading the forums when I saw your "battlestations". Watch the move up to 1.4040 area and decided not to chase price or pick the top.
Back from lunch and waiting for the NY session.
You seem to be on fire today. Keep up the good work. Ray

Hi Ray,

things are running in my direction today :-)

But I have to say the bold marked decision above is also a very strong one!
Cool!
Your mindset seems to be ok and relaxed.

Good fortune for the rest of your trading day!

Niels

Found the following snippet from fti, while doing my reasearch in his postings:

@auxesis,
dailychartwise,bias bear USD.
volitility legs vv high, therefore big battle on with the bull and bear.
difficult to ride,
options premiums vv high, from fair value.
gotta stay nimble.

regards

You can find it here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3243

Sounds interesting to use options recent premiums as an additional "indicator" to get an idea about markets sentiment respectively panic level. Have to ponder a little more about it.

Have to say, now after more than 2.5 years being addicted to this thread, there are many things that slightly start to make sense to me now. Have not paid attention to them during my reads in the past or I just had no idea what the seniors were talking about.

So don't give up on learning and re-re-re-re-re-reading the thread.
It is definitively worth all the time!

CU,
MaMood

Ok - let's prepare our Battlesations.
only 9 minutes till US Unemployment claims.

Let's see if any opportunities will arise ....

Well - basically a non event.
No scout out.
Back to research ...
But we should have an eye on the behavior arounf 1.40 level.
Maybe we can gather some clues ...

Hi MaMood and all
thank you for your work here

Just my little contribution.
Determine(Decision) - the result of empathic observation without my ego or my opinion stemming from past experience.

"little boy and an adult man in my head"

little boy sees magic ...


and adult man looking for a cause
http://www.52magic.com/product_765.html

Mamood,

Along the lines of yesterdays basket discussion, here's a link to the BOJ's yen index figures. A daily snapshot of inflows between the Yen and the Dollar& Euro and there levels. The last intervention came when the index reached over 124, which is where we are presently....... it seems to be weighted with the prior days volume figured between the Euro and Dollar.

I ran across this on one of the news comments here, but the writer had it backwards.

fwiw,

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/stat/bo...ly10/index.htm

Nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) explained here with basket weights

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/exp/stat/exrate.htm

Hey Friends,

thanx to Auxesis (and some others) for future students we can not recommend the first 200 pages of this thread for reading only. We have to expand the readings with some special addons like this basket/index topic.

Many thanx, John!
I'm very keen to get introduced to some more of your tools and "market resonance tomographs"

Cu,
Niels

Hey Mamood!

You probably mean risk reversal - described in very simple way it is indicator of volatility difference between call&put - when the market is in downtrend so put option will be more expensive as call option with same strike. You can calculate this reversal as a difference between vols of two options(put&call) with same delta - R = vol(call) - vol(put)

Mike.

Hi again,

that was a nice move from 1.3987 up to 1.4035.
Attached 3 charts of that event: M5, M1 and Tick.
You can decide by your own, which one is giving you the best idea of what is going on in the markets at least for timing your entries ....