Technical Analysis Fallacy

Thanx again Stan for your description of a typical POMO market behavior ...

Cool - was trading cable and EU.
Was a little stressful, but finally very profitable.
But now back to standard trading MO.
Was influenced by Setebos explanation and a little too predictive, i.e. that eu would run up to 14020 ....

Cool - thank you my lovely favorite lady!

LOL, Niels, if I didn't have the charts in front of me I would feel really guilty for messing your trading up Knowing your trading style, however, and seeing the massive punch the dollar is taking across the board - I'm sure you've made a killing there
Hope what I said earlier did not affect anyone in terms of actual trading decisions - that's a general scenario I use for bias, not for actual tactical positioning/targeting.
I should really be more careful about what I write on an open forum like this, there are tons of people around looking to catch a tip and then blame it back when they fail.

Yeah - you are right.
That could be dangerous. But on the other side I would never have thought about it, if you had not posted your POMO thoughts.

By the way, I did my trading based on the perfect moves of the 3 kgds...

Great stuff

Just wanted to say that Oanda has just refunded the loss that occurred during Friday’s NY session with all the problems. I have to say honestly that this is the first time in the 4 years that I have been trading with them that I ran into problems. I will continue to trade with them.

Thanks for your suggestion Neils.

Good trading to all. Ray

Hey Ray,

glad to hear!
Fine!

CU,
Niels

Just for info:

By Victoria McGrane
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)- U.S. economic activity continued to rise modestly in September and early October, with growth picking up in several districts, according to a report released Wednesday by the Federal Reserve.
Several sectors in some districts, however, showed continued signs of sluggishness, the Fed's latest beige book indicated.
Housing markets remained weak, with most of the Fed's 12 regional districts reporting sales below those of a year ago, the Fed said.
"Home inventories were elevated or rising according to most District reports," the Fed said.
The report comes as the Fed is widely expected by investors to announce new government bond purchases at its next meeting on Nov. 2-3 in a bid to boost the slowing recovery.
Minutes from Fed policymakers last meeting Sept. 21 showed most officials believing that the central bank needed to undertake new measures to boost growth, given that inflation remains too low and unemployment too high.
The U.S. central bank compiles the beige book eight times a year from anecdotal information collected by the dozen regional Fed banks scattered around the country. The report, which is based on interviews with businesses, economists and market experts, helps inform Fed officials as they decide the future course of monetary policy.
This latest beige book was prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, based on information collected on or before Oct. 8, and is prepared for the central bank's next policy-setting meeting.
With the central bank concerned that inflation is too low, the beige book found that input costs increased slightly but were generally not being passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices for goods and services.
"Pass-through of rising input costs to final prices remained limited although there were scattered reports of increases," the Fed said.
Most districts reported minimal wage pressure, though there were numerous reports from all the districts that firms expected health-care reform to increase the cost of employee benefits.
According to the beige book, retail spending was flat to up slightly in most districts, and retailers said that "consumers are slowly regaining confidence." But the Fed also said that consumers are confining their purchases largely to must-buy items. Atlanta and Richmond districts were the exceptions to the generally positive trend; each suffered declining shopping traffic and sales, the Fed said.
"Looking ahead, retailers in several districts expected modest sales growth through year-end. In particular, some contacts in New York planned to add more holiday staff than last year," the report said.
In most districts, new auto sales either held steady or grew. Sales of used vehicles were reported to be strong, with prices rising thanks to demand and lean inventories, the report said.
"Respondents' outlooks were for slight growth in sales through year-end," the Fed said.
Manufacturing continued to expand across most districts, with exports boosting activity in several regions.
But hiring by manufacturing firms "remained sluggish," the Fed said.
A few districts saw improvement on the housing front, including Philadelphia, which reported an uptick in sales of existing homes. Richmond, Kansas City and Dallas districts also reported increased home sales in the higher price range.
Lending activity reported during the early fall remained at low levels, but "there were some reports that demand picked up slightly," the Fed said. Richmond and Dallas both reported an uptick in lending activity.
"Some contacts noted there was pressure to price loans slightly more aggressively," the Fed said.
-By Victoria McGrane, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9267; [email protected]

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

Hi all,

POMO huh,very dangerous! Wow!
Can't help but think when this e/u finally comes off it will be spectacular.
Stay nimble

she lied to me!!!!
she told me she wanted to head south .

Today, note taken e/u 1.3981
very active
3866 area noted, out heading north eye on 3908 and area for direction watching 3939 response.

ok , what about the 3908 area, what are you going to do??

to much movement, I dont think she knows where she wants to go, im out till she finds herself.
quit while ahead, for now anyway.

along with 3 kingdoms, eye on a/u 9856 and how 9822 area responds.
g/u5827

waiting for directions please, hurry up I have other task at hand.

ok, thankyou, now where girls??

Good morning friends,

seems I have missed a really rocking Asian Session.
But unfortunatley from time to time I need some sleep ;-)

Has anybody made some pips out of it?

Starting my chart work now and waiting for my first coffee this morning.

Wish you a successfulk trading day!

CU,
MaMood

Apparantly swiss and asian banks now buying eur.

Seems there are 2 parties fighting a EURUSD battle:
Geithner and Trichet doing lipp support for a strong Dollar.
Trichet wants to go on with buying assets in the EU for some more time.

On the other side there is Axel Weber and german Bundesbank, who wants to end QE in EU zone as soon as possible ..

At least Geithners comments in WallStreetJopurnal may have caused this nice Asian Dollar strengthening spike (no I do not think it was BoJ)

Hope they will have some more comments during my trading session ;-)

Just for info:

0426 GMT [Dow Jones] U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner's comment in WSJ article that major currencies "roughly in alignment now" makes it harder for Japan to conduct another round of JPY-selling intervention, says Masanobu Ishikawa, general manager of FX spot at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow. Ishikawa says remark presents obstacle to any more Japanese intervention, after Tokyo's estimated Y2 trillion JPY-selling step last month, as suggests JPY level not really high, contrary to Japan's view that currency remains strong. "When an official like Mr. Geithner says something like this, Japan loses its footing," Ishikawa says. "This is like saying he doesn't accept Japanese intervention." Says amid broader USD weakness, USD/JPY may fall to 80.80 by end of global day vs last 81.14. Says pair may decline toward all-time low of 79.75 in coming sessions. ([email protected])

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

Hey MaMood

Good trading alongside you last evening

Don't grab all of the pips for yourself... Leave some for me when i go back to my trading desk

If you got time later we shall waltz later.

Pip well
Sylar

Just for info:

0639 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD up as European players coming online scoop up pair after its fall earlier in day, says senior FX dealer at major Japan trust bank. Stop-loss buying orders eyed at 1.3980, says senior FX dealer at major Japan trust bank. Pair last at 1.3964. But says sharper moves unlikely for rest of global day as players refrain from big bets before meetings of G-20 finance officials in South Korea starting Friday.([email protected])

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

Hi Sylar,

hmmh - will try to tame my greed ;-)
Do you have any troops deployed?

Have a good day!

MaMood

Cable short scout deploaed @5778
L2 attack @5761
L2 attack out @5750
preparing for L2 att again
awaiting a little retrace, because upside momentum on UJ slows down
Patience - no clear signs on UJ and Cable M1
L2 still prepared, little retrace is in the making
UJ still preventing a new entry. Needs to go up again ..
Finger on the trigger now. Waiting for UJ
BTW: Cable H1 is showing that we are approaching a strong support zone
Situation is geeting more and more unclear. Cable M15 may build a nice reversal pattern. So I'll wait, till a strong signal/move is howing up. Can take some time now ....
Cable M5 now first sign of weakness in retrace ...
EU M5 too
L2 deployed at 5757
reactive becuase of support on cable
L2 att out @5742
Waiting again for new L2. UJ is still looking good
UJ now topping on M5, so we need some time again
Cable M15 is not looking very promising, cos of long wicks
German PMI stronger than expected -> Some momentum to EU north ???
Will it cause a trun for cable too? Have to wait. But playing the short side is feeling more and more unconfortable now.
Be aware of EU SL at 3980 area ...

EU Long L2 attack prepared, becuase of possible Momentum of SL break

L2 cable in @5748
L2 cable out @5736

Phew - hectic.
Still EU SL break on radar.
Squarred cable scout @5747
Focu on EU now

We need a now attempt on EU. UJ is discarding a top break for the moment.

Are we breaking the recent M1 low from tjis move up? If so it will take some more time

Ok - will quit this public session for the moment.
Need to visit the restroom :-)
And nedd a fresh coffee.
Hope what I have done makes any sense to you.
If I only would know about a possibilty to add a timestamp to my blotter.
Any Ideas?

Hi again,

can not provide my blotter for this cable dance, cause I was dancing not on an MT4 platform. And with this plattform the blotter holds a lot of information, that I do now want to make public ;-)

But attached is a Tick Chart.
Cause my dance was very fast I was watching this chart for identifying upcoming momentum. It shows the time window of my trading session.
On such type of charts you can see much easier, when the move is going to start. the horizontal axes in the background have 10pip distance.

Scanning the 3 kgds was done on M5 M15 and M1.
Ticks only for momentum ....

Feel free to ask any questions ....