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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #19,761
  • Oct 20, 2010 2:03am Oct 20, 2010 2:03am
Quoting MaMood
Hi,

there is a good possibility for the making of a reversed S-H-S formation on cable H1. Will have an eye on it.
In general the day after such a strong move like yesterday, is a little tricky. You can never be sure, if trend (the prevailing USD short trend of the past few days/weeks) has changed already and you see just a retracement of the new reversed trend. Or if we face a a little larger retracement of the prevailing USD short trend. Depends on the timeframe you are trading, what you will define as bias then.

Tor the time being I tend to...

Oh sorry - there is a misreading of charts in my posting above.
The recent low was at 13695 and not 13670.


Thx for asking Kaptain ....
  • #19,762
  • Oct 20, 2010 3:11am Oct 20, 2010 3:11am
If you are engaged with high exposure keep in mind that some major figs for GbP are released in 19 minutes ...
  • #19,763
  • Oct 20, 2010 3:21am Oct 20, 2010 3:21am
Hi everyone,

I hope you are enjoying a peaceful day today.
Brits are on the streets after the UK is finally joining the European austerity party today (as if pound charts aren't bearish enough alone) and we have a POMO day in the States so I guess today won't be the best day of all to be betting on a rising cable.
I hope no one got hit by the wave the Chinese caused with that unscheduled interest rates announcement. I couldn't help appreciate the irony - doing so on the anniversary of the 1987 market crash...

Rgrds
S
  • #19,764
  • Oct 20, 2010 3:24am Oct 20, 2010 3:24am
Just for info:


LONDON, Oct 20 (IFR) - Middle Eastern sovereign selling is being blamed for cable's just over a quarter-cent retreat from an intra-day high of 1.5755 ahead of the looming publication of minutes from the October 6/7 BoE MPC meetingMore, alongside UK September public sector and money supply data. 1.5745 was today's Asian session top. Asian sovereign buying helped inflate GBP/USD from the 26-day low of 1.5650 plumbed in Asia today. 1.5680 was yesterday's low. 1.6108 was last Friday's 9-month high. [email protected]
Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)
  • #19,765
  • Oct 20, 2010 3:27am Oct 20, 2010 3:27am
Quoting Setebos
Hi everyone,

I hope you are enjoying a peaceful day today.
Brits are on the streets after the UK is finally joining the European austerity party today (as if pound charts aren't bearish enough alone) and we have a POMO day in the States so I guess today won't be the best day of all to be betting on a rising cable.
I hope no one got hit by the wave the Chinese caused with that unscheduled interest rates announcement. I couldn't help appreciate the irony - doing so on the anniversary of the 1987 market crash...

Rgrds
S

Hi Stan,

I enjoyed the chinese rate decision very much.
Just a shgort Question:

US POMO day - do not know the abreviation POMO ...
Please help :-)
  • #19,766
  • Oct 20, 2010 3:41am Oct 20, 2010 3:41am
Ouch - was long cable.
Did a rescue. My av price now at 157.
When breaking down with strong momentum I'm going to flip, when breaking the recent low at 15679 ...
Have to be patient
Having my focus also on UJ to get an idea what might happen ...
Breaking the 8120 level will be a warning sign to prepare for the flip ...

Edit: sorry nonsense again.
It's just the other way round. If level is holding and some serious upmove shows up, I prepare for the flip ...
  • #19,767
  • Oct 20, 2010 3:52am Oct 20, 2010 3:52am
Still dancing Cable long.
Last swing was starting point for a strong attack.
L3 attack for now ...

Edit:
Eye on UJ: Will go down more?
Edit: UJ M5 Hammer - so careful now ...
Edit: Vable back to old niveau again. Was avery profitable news fig for me.
The trick is to scann the markets/3Kgds very close, to know when to attack, rescue flip or just squarre out ...
Edit: 30 minutes after release I'm squrred out except long scout.
  • #19,768
  • Oct 20, 2010 4:03am Oct 20, 2010 4:03am
Preparing for new attack. All based on momentum on cable and PA on UJ
  • #19,769
  • Oct 20, 2010 4:07am Oct 20, 2010 4:07am
Careful now: Wil UJ break down or rebound on that support level?
  • #19,770
  • Edited 8:38am Oct 20, 2010 4:16am | Edited 8:38am
Quoting MaMood
Careful now: Wil UJ break down or rebound on that support level?
Be careful.
  • #19,771
  • Oct 20, 2010 4:26am Oct 20, 2010 4:26am
Quoting auxesis
Be careful.
Many thanx, auxesis!
Your trading screens are giving a very good overview of the neccessary informations.
Acting with good foreign capital already and have my finger always on the trigger for attacking or flipping.
Nimbleness is the word today aftre that strong moves yesterday based on China rate decisions. Markets have to find a new equilibrum first ...

;-)
  • #19,772
  • Oct 20, 2010 4:38am Oct 20, 2010 4:38am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Stan,

I enjoyed the chinese rate decision very much.
Just a shgort Question:

US POMO day - do not know the abreviation POMO ...
Please help :-)

Ok got it - POMO = Permanent Open Market Operations.
Seems I'm the only one who did not knew that ....
  • #19,773
  • Oct 20, 2010 4:47am Oct 20, 2010 4:47am
Have heard some voices from the "past" again.
Found an intersting posting of fti.
Following is a small snippet.

You can find it in it's context here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3073

"[...]
My mind was distracted to the historical significance, of decisions already implimented into the market place. But really, it was my fault that I had asked the questions "why?" along side my blotter postioning.
[...]
If some of you may like to think about this, you may discover the reasons why, some are unable to "flow with the dance". This is because to flow on wards the point of reference is no longer the historical mindframe but the immediate past , and the present quickly becomes, immediate past, and the previous point of reference must be released that the new point of reference should be the point of contention. For strategic repositioning , the only point of reference , is the consolidated exposure and will always be in a singular directional play, so there is no consideration for the other perspective, unless this accumulated position find itself in trouble. If this was true then repositioning is required.
[...]"


  • #19,774
  • Edited 8:38am Oct 20, 2010 5:01am | Edited 8:38am
Quoting MaMood
Have heard some voices from the "past" again.
Found an intersting posting of fti.
Following is a small snippet.

You can find it in it's context here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3073[indent]"[...]
My mind was distracted to the historical significance, of decisions already implimented into the market place. But really, it was my fault that I had asked the questions "why?" along side my blotter postioning.
[...]
If some of you may like to think about this, you may discover the reasons why, some are...
Nice repost, when in context of dancing mind must be on current impulse.

Commenting on the charts I posted prior, relation to Yen, thoughts were, as the correction is being seen across the board, the Yen is being towed stronger along with the Dollar, the basket index for the Yen shows we are at levels (basket relation) from where the BOJ acted prior last month, suspect the levels show may be defended Violently perhaps?

China's interest rate retrace benefit seems to be used as opportunityfor the market to buy more Yen, lessons may be just around the corner.

fwiw.........
  • #19,775
  • Oct 20, 2010 5:09am Oct 20, 2010 5:09am
Quoting auxesis
Nice repost, when in context of dancing mind must be on current impulse.

Commenting on the charts I posted prior, relation to Yen, thoughts were, as the correction is being seen across the board, the Yen is being towed stronger along with the Dollar, the basket index for the Yen shows we are at levels (basket relation) from where the BOJ acted prior last month, suspect the levels show may be defended Violently perhaps?

China's interest rate retrace benefit seems to be used as opportunityfor the market to buy more Yen, lessons may be just around...
Very interesting!
Was never thinking about seeing market operations in the context of the currency indeces/baskets. On the first glance it seems to be a strong tool to judge about recent market situation. Will invest some more time into it.

Thanx Auxesis!
  • #19,776
  • Oct 20, 2010 6:36am Oct 20, 2010 6:36am
Back from lunch.
Anything interesting out there?
  • #19,777
  • Oct 20, 2010 7:04am Oct 20, 2010 7:04am
May be I should switch from Cable to EU.
Not sure what is spooking cable today ....

EU is running very smooth with EJ for the moment
  • #19,778
  • Oct 20, 2010 7:08am Oct 20, 2010 7:08am
Quoting MaMood
Back from lunch.
Anything interesting out there?
UK Finance minister speaking to the houses right now on the public finance reform - 500K jobs will be cut in the next 2-3 years and austerity measures will apply aiming to cut the bulk of their deficit by 2014. Quite ambitious plan, IMHO.
Sorry I couldn't answer your question on POMO earlier - had to leave right after my last post, glad you found it yourself. The rule of thumb for POMO days is that Fed injects 2-3 billion of liquidity which ramp the markets higher - on such days news doesn't really matter - high yield stuff goes up, dollar goes down - there's enough free money to spend. That's the reason indexes have been going up when economic data coming from the States is horrible most of the time.

Rgrds
S
  • #19,779
  • Oct 20, 2010 7:34am Oct 20, 2010 7:34am
Quoting Setebos
UK Finance minister speaking to the houses right now on the public finance reform - 500K jobs will be cut in the next 2-3 years and austerity measures will apply aiming to cut the bulk of their deficit by 2014. Quite ambitious plan, IMHO.
Sorry I couldn't answer your question on POMO earlier - had to leave right after my last post, glad you found it yourself. The rule of thumb for POMO days is that Fed injects 2-3 billion of liquidity which ramp the markets higher - on such days news doesn't really matter - high yield stuff goes up, dollar goes...
Thanx for your explanations Stan.
  • #19,780
  • Oct 20, 2010 7:44am Oct 20, 2010 7:44am
Well - have not switched to EU yet, but to range trading modus on Cable.
Curious how often that waltz is going to work ...

Sowhat we are seeing here is the devaluation of GBP due to more QE and the effect of weaker Dollar due to POMO effects ...
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