Technical Analysis Fallacy

Hi,

back from lunch.
The ladies have made their decisions: EU was following Cable.
Thanx for that nice after lunch dessert :-)

@Stan: Ah interesting. Was not aware of this. Thanx!

Have to do some chartwork now, to realign my tactics and market view.

The answer to the question to my own "What the hell are you doing here?" was, that I'm a little to predictive in reading the markets (The danger of feeling invincible - I'm sure you know what I#m talking about). And my Egor is getting to strong, cause of very good performance in the last days.

Will scale down a tad ...

CU,
MaMood

Hi again Kaptain,

unfortunately I have a problem with accessing this historical data.
Maybe someone else has the requested charts at hand. Will try to "outsmart" my old computer this evening, but not sure if I'll have success ...

CU,
MaMood

Careful now:
A dovish Trichet in combination with stronger than expected us data could provide an explosive mixture!!!!

Good fortune!!

eyes open
3810 is an area of xtra interest looking at a day chart for tuesday
1.4139
1.3993-4010
1.3810

3795 looking at the weekly.

looking at the weekly chart

1.4230, with eye on 3993
1.3795
1.3450, with eye on 3597

I did not know him that well, my wife went to school with his wife but just for the fact of compassion for our fellow man I had to be there.
I cant imagine how he will deal with waking up every morning and his sons not there because of his gun accident.

Oh my, did that China rates hike give commodities-related markets a punch...

MaMood, thanks for the effort regardless if the chart can be gotten or not. i really appreciate all of you guys sharing and teaching others. i am a visual person and its kinda of hard to see what fti is saying without the 5M candles. Rgds/Kev

e/u @3795-3810 area.
the question of the week.
Will we break to the down side or head back up?
eyes are open.

Hi,

back in the driver seat again.
Had to do some other stuff this NY afternoon session.

Seems USD long is still the trend of the day.
I'm curious what Mr King is going to deliver in 30 minutes.
Hope he will give some nice impulses to the market.
I'm prepared to dance even Rock'n Roll when the iron lady wants to do so ...

CU,
MaMood

Hmmmh - timing of BOE King spech seems a little wrong in FF calender.
His statements are already public.
Here they are:

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The governments of leading nations must agree on a "grand bargain" of policies to rebalance the world economy, or else face rising protectionism that could lead to a collapse in activity similar to that of the 1930s, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said Tuesday.
King delivered his warning in a speech to business people in the West Midlands days ahead of a meeting in South Korea of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 leading economies.
King said that disputes among the leading economies over their respective foreign exchange policies--known as the "currency wars"--are symptoms of a deeper disagreement about the fundamental changes needed to rebalance the global economy.
Most policymakers accept that the persistence of strong growth in domestic demand and large trade deficits in such economies as the U.S. and the U.K., mirrored by slowly growing domestic demand and high trade surpluses in such economies as Germany and China, contributed to the onset of the financial crisis and the recession that followed.
They also broadly agree that economies with large surpluses need to boost domestic demand to compensate for a slowdown in demand growth in economies with large trade deficits.
But there has been little progress towards agreeing concrete measures to achieve the needed rebalancing. Indeed, King said the policies being pursued by the leading economies "are in direct conflict" and are likely to lead to slower growth in the global economy as a whole.
"The risk is that unless agreement on a common path of adjustment is reached, conflicting policies will result in an undesirably low level of world output, with all countries worse off as a result," King said.
The conflict between leading economies has also created some "innocent victims," King said, referring to Brazil and other nations that have been forced to impose capital controls to prevent rapid appreciations in their currencies that would slow growth.
"Those emerging market economies which have adopted floating currencies are now suffering from the attempts of other countries to hold down their exchange rates, and are experiencing uncomfortable rates of capital inflows and currency appreciation," he said. "So there is more to this issue than a bilateral conflict between China and the United States."
And King warned that without a revival of the co-operative spirit that was evident at the height of the financial crisis in late 2008, the world economy is heading for a crash, since governments will see no other option but to raise tariffs and other barriers to imports.
"The need to act in the collective interest has yet to be recognized, and, unless it is, it will be only a matter of time before one or more countries resort to trade protectionism as the only domestic instrument to support a necessary rebalancing," King said.
"That could, as it did in the 1930s, lead to a disastrous collapse in activity around the world," he said. "Every country would suffer ruinous consequences--including our own. But, to borrow a phrase, in order to be tough on protectionism, we need also to be tough on the causes of protectionism."
The central banker called on the G20 to agree a set of policies designed to rebalance the global economy, and including their foreign exchange policies as well as rules on capital inflows, plans to raise saving in the deficit countries, and reforms to boost demand in the surplus countries.
"What is needed now is a 'grand bargain' among the major players in the world economy," King said. "A bargain that recognizes the benefits of compromise on the real path of economic adjustment in order to avoid the damaging consequences of a move towards protectionism."
The difficulty of agreeing polices to rebalance the global economy was underscored Tuesday when the People's Bank of China said in a statement it will raise the one-year yuan lending rate to 5.56% from 5.31%, and the one-year yuan deposit rate to 2.5% from 2.25%, effective Wednesday.
That move is intended to contain inflation and soaring asset prices, but it will do so by slowing domestic demand, thereby having the opposite effect to that required for rebalancing.
Expressing doubts about the G20's ability to reach a "grand bargain," King said that would require "a revolution" in the way the body works.
-Paul Hannon, Dow Jones Newswires, +44 20 7842 9491, [email protected]

Hi Kaptain,

can not reactivate my old trading pc. CPU fan is striking ...

But here you can find several sources of historical data:
http://www.iexpertadvisor.com/forexData.asp

Hope this helps.

CU,
MaMood

g/u
eyes open 5703-with eye on 5669.

weekly chart areas of extra interest.
6140
5973- with eye on 5922 area
5703- eye on 5669

should have posted a heads up sooner.

I wont be falling in love with any longs or retracements.
Have fun.

will be watching how e/u responds in the 3770 area and a/u 9725 along with the 2 other kingdoms.(if we get there)

Good morning friends!

Isn't it cool - someone out there on one of my neews feeds is compiling something like my FirstMorningCoffee-Thingy

Here it comes:

Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Market Briefs
* BoJ DepGov Nishimura - Risk of overheating emerging economies, chances of
prolonged low US growth up too, BoJ judged it appropriate to take certain
risks in buying assets, JPY rise major negative for economy, may push down
prices too, pace of growth slowing - Reuters.
* Mexico launches Y150 bln 10-year samurai, coupon 1.51%, swaps +50 bps via
MUFG, Mizuho and Nomura - IFR.
* IMF MD Lipsky - Welcomes China rate move - Reuters.
* Fed Gov Duke - November Fed move not a done deal, a lot can change between now
and meeting, lowering rate on excess reserves another option - Reuters.
* Australia PM Gillard - Will keep working on details of tax with miners - RTRS.
* Australia Sep merchandise imports A$17.73 bln, Aug A$17.2 bln.
* RBNZ Gov Bollard - Endorses view rates will remain on hold for the balance of
the year.
* RBNZ DepGov Spencer - Central bank intervention to lower currencies generally
Has only a temporary effect - Reuters.
* NZ FinMin English - Credit ratings appear secure - Reuters.
* NZ Fonterra dairy prices down in latest auction, dairy TWI -2.5%.
Looking Ahead - Economic Data
06:00 GER Sep PPI, +0.2% m/m, +3.8% y/y eyed; last unch, +3.2%.
08:00 ITA Aug industrial orders; last -3.0% m/m, +0.7% y/y.
08:00 ITA Aug industrial sales; last -2.7% m/m, +8.9% y/y.
08:30 GBP Sep money supply M4, +0.3% m/m eyed; last -0.1%.
08:30 GBP Sep PSNB, GBP14.2 bln eyed; last GBP15.302 bln.
08:30 GBP Sep PSNCR, GBP15.65 bln eyed; last GBP 5.802 bln.
09:00 ITA Sep Non-EU trade balance; last E2.142 bln deficit.
Looking Ahead - Events, Auctions
N/A Basel III Financial Stability Board meeting in Seoul.
04:30 BoJ DepGov Nishimura press conference in Hiroshima.
06:30 ECB Frankfurt conference on statistics, various speakers, attendees.
08:00 IMF regional economic outlook for Europe.
08:30 BoE MPC October 6-7 meeting minutes.
11:30 UK coalition government unveils spending review, cuts.
18:00 Fed Beige Book release.

Currency Summaries
USD/JPY and the JPY crosses traded heavy in Asia with risk-off sentiment from overnight continuing to weigh on the crosses and, hence, USD despite broad USD strength elsewhere. Moves lower in the Nikkei and other Asian stock indices helped. The market may yet be digesting all of the news out yesterday, including China's rate hike, concerns voiced by ECB Pres Trichet over EZ statistics, EU Rehn comments on rising imbalances, US banking share plunges and the Wall Street plunge in conjunction with lower US yields. USD/JPY fell from 81.66 to 81.32, dragged down by the JPY crosses and on lower US yields. Model funds and Japanese exporters were noted sellers early, serving to absorb any Tokyo fix demand. Bids remain well ahead of 81.00 from investors and other players however, and trail down to the double bottom at 80.88. EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY fell from 112.20 to 111.58, 128.21 to 127.51, 79.32 to 78.63 and 60.84 to 60.29 before bouncing. EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY also saw model fund sales with stops sub-111.80 hit in the former. AUD/JPY later rebounded to 79.38, above the early high.

EUR/USD opened in Asia at 1.3726 after getting clobbered overnight following the surprise China rate hike. It fell to 1.3697 early Asia as model funds sold but macro funds were keen buyers around 1.3700 and helped push the market back up. Talk of Asian sovereign name purchases forced intra-day shorts to cover, and an added boost was seen after an impressive recovery in the Shanghai Composite from down over 2% early to positive territory. A high of 1.3773 was seen with selling from prop desks currently capping the market.

GBP/USD opened in Asia at 1.5706 and suffered early on JPY cross sales out of Tokyo, trading down to 1.5650 fed by stops sub-1.5680. Rumored Asian sovereign name purchases saw cable bounce later to 1.5721. EUR/GBP opened at 0.8737 and traded up to 0.8764 on short-covering after the plunge overnight from 0.8825 to 0.8741.

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

Hi,

there is a good possibility for the making of a reversed S-H-S formation on cable H1. Will have an eye on it.
In general the day after such a strong move like yesterday, is a little tricky. You can never be sure, if trend (the prevailing USD short trend of the past few days/weeks) has changed already and you see just a retracement of the new reversed trend. Or if we face a a little larger retracement of the prevailing USD short trend. Depends on the timeframe you are trading, what you will define as bias then.

Tor the time being I tend to dollar short again.
But I have my eyes very close to my charts to spot a possible misalignment in my dance ...

Because many are still not sure about the flip thingy.
I have done my chartwork this way today:
When price goes below the current Tokyo low of 13712 with strong momentum I'll flip and try to make the lost ground back inside the distance down to 13700 area. The way down to recent low around 13670 maybe some profits then.
Situations for a flip are the break of strong support areas in combination with strong momentum. The trick is not to overstay the momentum with the heavy exposed flip-position-size. Cut them back as soon as you reach BE or impulse/momentum is going to stall ...

Cu,
MaMood

Just for info:

0639 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY falling, as non-Japanese investors sell in attempt to trigger stop-loss sell orders placed at 80.90, which would likely then open way down to 80.00, says senior dealer at major bank in Tokyo. Adds, these speculators taking cue from weak Japan shares, they will focus on European stocks as next cue. USD/JPY last at 81.30.([email protected])

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

.....When price goes below the current Tokyo low of 13712....

MaMood, Tokyo low...what's this?

Seems the 3 kgds are pretty much in sync ths London morning.
What does this mean for my trading:

Basically like this morning UJ down -> EU and GU up.

So if I know about large stops on UJ (as mentioned in the news above) and price is close to that area, I prepare for a strong attack or rescue on for example EU or GU.

BUT I only jump in, when the momentum really jumps up.

Means I do not jump the gun in hurrying ahead of her moves. I use it just as better "knowing the terrain". Just to be prepared and have the order dialogs filled in and ready to press the button ...

I'm referring to the Tokyo trading session.
Lasting from 01:00 GMT till 10:00 GMT (hmmh - maybe +/- 1 hour due to some Daylight saving adjustments).