Technical Analysis Fallacy

Hi MaMood

When you do a bad experience, subconscious remembers that experience but the conscious mind forgets this for some time.
It follows from the obvious "TrAiNing" (my understanding "tan"=taw and benefit (create) from the protective "ring" around me").

Rgs

watching how she responds to that 3962-66 area .

along with 3 kingdoms, watching a/u 9900.

Hmmh - it is a litte bit embarrassing, but till now I did not notice the interesting detail, that fti makes a difference in skewing for an attack and skewing modus for a "ride". I do not refer to the agressivity, but to laying weight on the front end, back end or the hump for example ...

If you do not know what I'm talking about, please follow the dialog between fti and green_david, which is starting here. It gave me some new clues ....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2735

CU,
MaMood

Hey - as you may have noticed, I'm doing some research in fti's historical postings. A very enlightening trading session (despite the fact that fti got stuck in a congestion), that showed how fti used the 3kgds for his MO, took place at 31.01.2008.

You'll find it here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1126

I have studied this example not the third time. I guess every 6 month or so. And every time I get a deeper understanding, what fti was doing there ...

Have fun!

MaMood

Hey Mr. Geithner is on the wires.
Let'S see if he can create a new opportunity to long the USD ....

Edit: The moves have been caused by:
Geithner: US won't devalue Dollar!

Edit:
Some more details:

BOSTON, Oct 18 (IFR)- Treasury Secretary Geithner is speaking this afternoon in broad terms about the dollar's value, saying he does not see a time in his lifetime that the dollar will not be the world's key reserve currency. On competitive devaluation, he says no country can devalue its way to prosperity and the U.S. will not engage in it. Nevertheless, the dollar index is only about nine percent away from its all-time low and trending lower on anticipation of QE2 and near-record budget deficits.
Geithner says confidence in the Adminstration's policies toward business is weak and he will work to strengthen it. He says that while the economy is healing and that most of the adjustment "we face as a nation is largely behind us," the current economic backdrop is still significantly challenging. In one breath he says that more must be done to brind down long-term budget deficit but in another breath he says the more stimulus is needed to reinforce the recovery.
Despite mixed signals at best, the markets seem to find the comments dollar-supportive. The Dec dollar index is up about a dime in late trading with most of the gain coming after Geithner started sharing his remarks. -- [email protected]
Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

Some hints about recent sentiment:

SYDNEY, Oct 19 (IFR) - Both Apple and IBM delivered their Q3 earnings reports in the after-hours - and while both companies beat the street"s forecasts for earnings, the forward guidance fell short of expectations. Apple shares have fallen close to 5% in the after-hours while IBM is down close to 3.50%. The fall in the after hours of the two tech giants might weigh on Asian equity markets after Wall Street closed the day on a strong note. [email protected] Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

Hey Fana,
what are you doing at that time of the day here on FF?
Any (demo-)trades open?

Hi Niels. Thanx for asking, i am just reading posts and only watch actual situation in the markets. I just organize money to restart trading. So i have to stay "in", even at midnight.

Along with handling ourselves in the market, fti highlighted learning from lifes lessons.
Just a reminder to take it a day at a time, show love to family and friends and resolve your differences with your fellow man as we do not know what tomorrow brings.

Just went to a associates sons funeral.
He died on his sisters birthday at 22.
Very seldom Im at a loss for words but I was for the father of the son.
For encouragement, a couple bible verses is all I could think of .
Ecclesiastes 9:11 tells us time and unforseen occurance befall us all.
John 5:28,29 mentions they will here his voice and there will be a resurrection as I reminded him of the Lords prayer where we pray for his will to be done on earth which the meek inherit.
You see, the reason I was speechless, it was the way he died as it was the fathers gun at the gun range that accidently went off.

Hi lilpip,

I'm feeling deeply sorry for your associates and you.
Sometimes life is teaching us very hard lessons.

My deepest condolences.
Niels

Good morning Friends,

market has neutralised the Geithner move completely in early Asian session. The recent sentiment in Asia is as follows:

Regional markets mixed;
Nikkei +0.3%,
S&P/ASX 200 +0.1%,
Shanghai Composite down 0.6%,
HSI +0.5%,
Kospi off 0.8%,
STI +0.1%,
Sensex flat,
KLCI +0.2%,
NZX-50 0.1% lower,
Taiex down 0.2%,
SET +0.2%.

CU,
MaMood

BTW: Not sure if you know that most of my news feeds and nearly 95% of the news I copy and paste into this thread is availabe for free. It's based on Oanda's news feed. You just have to open a demo account with them and chose the FXNews app from their website. I like that app very much, because it allows to filter and search the news ....

Hi again,

after studying fti's live sesssion (mentioned above) and his continuation in the following pages, he would probably say:
Well London Boys have tested the terrain to the south now.
Let's wait what they will find in the north.
So stay nimble ....

Hi MaMood, i am late to this party but am trying to learn as much as i can. can you please post charts of EU, GU and UJ for the time period fti is referring to in his attack sequence below. i cannot go back that far on my charts. thanks/Kev

Not sure, but the crosses (i.e. EURJPY)are leading the show again.
Delivers good preindication of upcoming momentum ....

Hey Kaptain,

will do so. But give me some time, cuase I have to switch to antoher trading station to go back that much in history. Most probably before NY opening ....

CU,
MaMood

Hi,

seems it has got alittle more difficult for BoJ to initiate the next intervention. The following article is alittle long but an informative read ....

By Takashi Nakamichi
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
TOKYO (Dow Jones)-Although Japan undertook a massive Y2 trillion foreign exchange intervention last month to stop a rising yen, it has since sat on the sidelines even as the currency has appreciated even further to near-record highs against the dollar.
There have been no definitive answers from officials, but it appears Tokyo's reticence has been due to concerns over a potential backlash from Washington.
Following the mid-September intervention, Japan's first in six and a half years, U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, have largely kept silent about it.
This led to a view in Japan that the U.S., while not wildly enthusiastic about the action, was quietly accepting the fact that Tokyo had to do something to avoid derailing its export-dependent economy.
But U.S. officials apparently were not pleased by the timing of the Japanese intervention because it came at a time when they were trying to persuade China to let market forces determine the movement of the yuan.
Officials in Washington were not sure if to interpret the move as one-shot effort by Tokyo to send a warning to the market or the start of regular interventions. The latter would be sure to displease the U.S.
Tokyo, therefore, is in a tight spot and may find it harder to intervene again. While further intervention may temporarily weaken the yen, it would carry the risks of sparking diplomatic friction with the U.S. that could itself offset some of the impact of Tokyo's market action.
Some analysts still expect Japan will intervene to slow the yen's advance if the currency rises above the psychologically key Y80 mark to the dollar, but doing so would risk rattling U.S.'s nerves.
Analysts note that any open complaints from Washington would underline the lack of policy cooperation between the two nations. "Speculators would then find it easier to sell the dollar" versus the yen, said Koji Fukaya, chief Japan currency strategist at Credit Suisse.
The September intervention, conducted a day after Prime Minister Naoto Kan had won a second term as head of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan, didn't appear to have U.S. approval and was largely tailored to a domestic audience, said a person familiar with the matter.
The intervention was successful in pushing the dollar up nearly Y3 to Y85.78 that day, although the U.S. currency has since fallen well below the pre-intervention level and is now trading at Y81.40.
The move was meant to "show leadership" to voters, the person told Dow Jones Newswires. Until the party election, Kan's economic team had been preoccupied with the poll and was under fire for its inability to stem the rising yen, the individual said.
The person added that Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, whose department is in charge of foreign exchange policy, had long been "reluctant" to authorize intervention. But faced with intense pressure from Kan's office, particularly from Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku, Noda complied and ordered the Bank of Japan to intervene to sell the yen, the person said.
A little more than a week ahead of the intervention, several Japanese finance ministry officials likewise appeared to be not very enthusiastic about intervention. One told Dow Jones Newswires that the yen's levels against the dollar weren't "misaligned" yet. Another said the yen's climb versus its U.S. counterpart was "in line with fundamentals."
There are indications that the U.S. may have tried to keep quiet partly to avoid suggesting a divide among advanced nations ahead of key Group of 20 meetings, where the U.S. and Europe are expected to put greater pressure on China to let the yuan rise. G-20 finance ministers are set to gather in South Korea later this week, ahead of a G-20 summit there next month.
Some analysts say Japan can justify further intervention on economic grounds, saying that the yen's strength is out of line with the nation's fragile economy, which according to Economy Minister Banri Kaieda has admitted has entered a protracted period of minimal growth.
But global tensions over currencies also make it increasingly difficult for Japan to move.
Emerging market nations are increasingly upset with developed economies that are pushing interest rates down to offset deflationary pressures because the flood of liquidity from the loose monetary policies is gushing into their markets, strengthening their currencies, and risking potential asset-price bubbles.
With Japan's intervention added to the mix, nations such as China and South Korea--which has intervened heavily in recent months to curb the won's strength--would be even less interested in being lectured by their G-20 counterparts.
-By Takashi Nakamichi, Dow Jones Newswires; 813-6269-2781; [email protected]

Disclaimer: Be aware of posibble Cow Dung included ;-)

Intersesting: After the ZEW figs have been realeased EU and Cable have lost their good correlation for now. All 3kgds have been pretty much in sync during the London session sofar.

The Million Dollar question now: Will EU follow Cable or the other way round?

Edit: well EU made something similiar to a pinbar now on M5 chart. So let's see ...

Hmmh - holding active managed EU and Cable short positions for the whole London session. They have been supposed to double my exposure to long USD directions. Now it seems to turn out as a hedge ...
Will wait a little longer till I get some more clues, what the ladies are trying to tell me ...

Aaahh - some clues at least ....

0928 GMT [Dow Jones] It looks like holders of sterling are getting a little nervous ahead of Wednesday's BOE MPC minutes and the Governments Comprehensive Spending Review. The pound is underperforming pretty much across the board Tuesday with GBP/USD one cent off the day's 1.5940 high. AUD/GBP at 1.5975 trades close to a fresh 25 year low, EUR/GBP is up half a penny at 0.8819 and GBP/CHF is down at a near one week low of 1.5160. ([email protected])

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)


Have to leave for preparing family lunch now.
Cu later again.

Stay nimble!

Also, FYI:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bri...ils-2010-10-19

Rgrds
S