The World As It Is Can Do With Your Positive Disposition
- #104
- Oct 18, 2010 9:04am Oct 18, 2010 9:04am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Summer is the best time of year! | 1,284 Posts
- #105
- Edited 9:39am Oct 18, 2010 9:27am | Edited 9:39am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Summer is the best time of year! | 1,284 Posts
Barney....something I'm looking at that is totally related to your breakout system. Fib Zone Pivots are based on a fib zone that is 100% of the daily range and the pivot is the (high, low and close)/3.
For me it makes total sense to apply that same fib zone logic to your breakout setup. So the logic is this...
If price breaks to the downside...past your TP, what is the likely extension. Typically it can go to 61.8 of the daily range and reverse....but if it goes past that level, it has a better chance to going to full distance of 100% of the ATR.
Here is my chart from today.
The first dotted line is 61.8 of ATR. The second is 100% of ATR.
I think this is the point liberty was making.....after TP hit, then what.
I'll post the additional pivot indicator later today once I figure out how to avoid a conflict in the labels.
I think it's just a different way of looking at what you are already doing with your fibs.
Cheers
CanuckCT
For me it makes total sense to apply that same fib zone logic to your breakout setup. So the logic is this...
If price breaks to the downside...past your TP, what is the likely extension. Typically it can go to 61.8 of the daily range and reverse....but if it goes past that level, it has a better chance to going to full distance of 100% of the ATR.
Here is my chart from today.
The first dotted line is 61.8 of ATR. The second is 100% of ATR.
I think this is the point liberty was making.....after TP hit, then what.
I'll post the additional pivot indicator later today once I figure out how to avoid a conflict in the labels.
I think it's just a different way of looking at what you are already doing with your fibs.
Cheers
CanuckCT
- #106
- Oct 18, 2010 9:37am Oct 18, 2010 9:37am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Summer is the best time of year! | 1,284 Posts
- #109
- Oct 18, 2010 10:37am Oct 18, 2010 10:37am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Summer is the best time of year! | 1,284 Posts
- #118
- Oct 19, 2010 6:51am Oct 19, 2010 6:51am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Summer is the best time of year! | 1,284 Posts
Hi Barney,
I like anchoring price at the close....the very nature of breakout trading is that they do not work all the time...especially if you try automating it. You will be forever tweeking to see....how can I filter out those losing trades. Range too small, time of day, RSI, etc. All of those techniques will filter out some of the losing trades....but also some of the winners.
Before any EA development can begin, the exact strategy needs to be defined. There is a lot in the London Breakout EA that could form a base for this. I do believe automation will help assess the win/loss ratio for each pair....and help with different ways of moving the stops.
Below is the snapshot for the current day...nine pairs. I missed marking one trade.
Entry is 50 fib, TP at 100.
Green is winning trades, red is losing and blue is the breakout of the FZP. What I am suggesting is to tie in that king of logic to the existing setup...not changing the pivot calculation. I guess both can be assessed.
For those wondering about FZP...they can read the article attached.
The other thing people should consider is watching several pairs....and that will help you determine what is moving. Sometimes is a USD move, like today.
Watching several EU, GU, AU, USDCHF and USDCAD will tell you that.
Sometimes it's just an EUR or GBP move...watching EURGBP will help you with that.
Sometimes it's a JPY move...and watching EJ, GJ and UJ will tell you that.
Cheers
CanuckCT
I like anchoring price at the close....the very nature of breakout trading is that they do not work all the time...especially if you try automating it. You will be forever tweeking to see....how can I filter out those losing trades. Range too small, time of day, RSI, etc. All of those techniques will filter out some of the losing trades....but also some of the winners.
Before any EA development can begin, the exact strategy needs to be defined. There is a lot in the London Breakout EA that could form a base for this. I do believe automation will help assess the win/loss ratio for each pair....and help with different ways of moving the stops.
Below is the snapshot for the current day...nine pairs. I missed marking one trade.
Entry is 50 fib, TP at 100.
Green is winning trades, red is losing and blue is the breakout of the FZP. What I am suggesting is to tie in that king of logic to the existing setup...not changing the pivot calculation. I guess both can be assessed.
For those wondering about FZP...they can read the article attached.
The other thing people should consider is watching several pairs....and that will help you determine what is moving. Sometimes is a USD move, like today.
Watching several EU, GU, AU, USDCHF and USDCAD will tell you that.
Sometimes it's just an EUR or GBP move...watching EURGBP will help you with that.
Sometimes it's a JPY move...and watching EJ, GJ and UJ will tell you that.
Cheers
CanuckCT
- #120
- Oct 19, 2010 7:34am Oct 19, 2010 7:34am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Summer is the best time of year! | 1,284 Posts