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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #19,701
  • Oct 16, 2010 1:37pm Oct 16, 2010 1:37pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Ray,

sad to hear about yours and others oanda probs.
Is there nothing you can do when you call up their service people?
Hopefully you can manage to get some money back or at least some goodies (better spreads like the institutional clients for some weeks or seomthing like that ...)

Wish you good fortune if you are going to try it!

CU,
Niels
I decided to take your advice, I sent them an email documenting the trades and problems with their platform at the time. It does seem a bit strange that other platforms had no problems. I will let you know their reply. Ray
  • #19,702
  • Oct 16, 2010 3:06pm Oct 16, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting auxesis
That's it party's over. QE2? maybe but not so much, let the correction begin.
e/u certainly was a very impulsive move both up and down..
Almost seemed,as if, to open the door for higher levels.
Fti also mentioned watching volatility in the direction of the trend and anticipating it to bite in.
Maybe someone was already really short euro and just really needed it down.
Staying nimble and watching skew.

rgds.
  • #19,703
  • Oct 16, 2010 11:48pm Oct 16, 2010 11:48pm
Hi Everyone

For those who trade multiple pairs you may be interested in this:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../05/051905.asp

It outlines how you can set up your own 'spreadsheet' to give you an up to date correlation between the different pairs. I've been playing around with it and have found it very informative.
With wisdom comes humility. With humility comes wisdom!
  • #19,704
  • Oct 17, 2010 6:28am Oct 17, 2010 6:28am
Quoting 1234
I sent them an email documenting the trades and problems with their platform at the time.
Hi Ray,
Sorry to hear you got robbed by Oanda.
I shorted at 70 after recovered from 1st disconnection. When other platforms hit lower 30s, Oanda was ticking up and down around 40, that means, their server was working, after the event, I know that means they are printing fake quotes around 40 to wait sellers tp there. I waited a bit, when other platforms started bouncing up, I tp at 41. But the bouncing wasn't fiercy, then, Oanda switched off again.
I hope you get some reasonable answer from Oanda. It's a very difficult battle, because their broker license is in the U.S. and SG, server is spread in several countries(seems main server is in Holland), orders are excuted in London. This makes authorities can't judge they are legal or illegal for a specific trade. The only hope is that Oanda may give face to your credential to avoid posible investigation.
By the way, Oanda is operating under broker license while they are market maker. This is obviously inside trading. Any chance to complain about the conflicting interests?
  • #19,705
  • Oct 17, 2010 6:41am Oct 17, 2010 6:41am
Quoting jacson101
e/u certainly was a very impulsive move both up and down..
Almost seemed,as if, to open the door for higher levels.
Fti also mentioned watching volatility in the direction of the trend and anticipating it to bite in.
Maybe someone was already really short euro and just really needed it down.
Staying nimble and watching skew.

rgds.
Hi Jackson,

very interesting remark.

From watching the PA on Friday, the way the prices went down in waves, that was typical for a change in trend direction. Especially when big players try to to wind down their positions and do not want to push prices to strong down. That at least is corresponding to my (few) experiences.
But making a step back and scanning the charts again they can also support your view.
So best is to stay nimble and keeping sizes appropriate.

Thanx for your comment!

CU,
MaMood
  • #19,706
  • Oct 17, 2010 1:59pm Oct 17, 2010 1:59pm
Hi friends,

was hestitating a long time now to bring that topic up here in this thread.
But finally I'm very interested in your opinion ...

Some of us (may be many of us) have the problem, that out starting capitalisation is to small to make a living out of trading, when using very conservative risk paramerters. Risking max 5% per battle only and making your living out off $5000 is nearly impossible. So most of us are taking insane risks to get an acceptable return per month.

We all know what problems arise from this approach:
We are much more close to gambling than to serious and professional trading. Our mindset gets some damage, that will be very hard to resolve in the long run. And of course we are close to blow up our accounts.

But how to make some better return from our invest in time and money with proper risk and money management?

Have you every heard about zulutrade.com or collective2.com?
These are platforms that allow you easily to share your trading "signals" and get payed for every "subscriber", that is following your trades. There are several ways to share your signals with them. It is not a big problem (there are many technical solutions out there, so that you get not disturbed by anything, while trading).

But now we are close to my question/concerns:
Is it really a source for additonal income out off our trading?
Or does it provide more risks and problems to our mindset and ego, when trading publically?

I'm not sure finally....
To be honest - I'm in a seriuos due diligence process with 3 platforms of that kind. I want to add, that I have no scrupel in using such a platform per se. I'm trading to make money. And that is a way to make some more money. From my point of view there is nothing immoral or unethical aspect in doing so. I know my trading skills and will give potential subscribers a good return for their risk ...

However - I'm very interested in your opinions about such a way of optimizing your profits.
Where do you see problems, drawbacks, killers, no-go's or what ever?

Curious greetings,
MaMood
  • #19,707
  • Oct 17, 2010 3:28pm Oct 17, 2010 3:28pm
Hi,

just a short summary or let's say accommodation for the market opening tonight:

EURUSD: 1.3980/87
USDJPY: 81.36/38
GBPUSD: 1.5970/74

1919 GMT [Dow Jones] U.S. SUMMARY: USD bounced back Friday from broad losses suffered in volatile trading in wake of Fed Chairman Bernanke's comments; Australian dollar hit parity with USD for first time since 1983, when Australian currency was freely floated. But, after falling to lowest point since December 2009, USD Index retraced decline to post a modest gain on day. EUR retreated from levels last seen in January, while USD recovered modestly from 15-year lows against JPY. Investors still consider likely another round of Fed asset purchases, said Alan Ruskin, global head of G-10 foreign exchange strategy at Deutsche Bank in New York. But "the sense is maybe the story is priced in for the most part," he said. EUR/USD at 1.3974 late Friday from 1.4077 late Thursday. USD/JPY at 81.41 vs 81.51, EUR/JPY at 113.77 vs 114.74, GBP/USD at 1.5983 vs 1.6013. USD/CHF at 0.9578 vs 0.9527. USD Index at 76.984 from 76.563. Treasurys fell as U.S. data led many investors to cut bets Fed will buy government bonds on a larger scale in order to boost economy; 2-year yields fell 1.6 bps to 0.367%, 10-year yields +6.1 bps to 2.567%. Stocks mixed; tech stocks rallied after strong earnings from Google but worries over foreclosure crisis weighed. Google added 11% but Bank of America fell 4.9%. Dow shed 0.3%, Nasdaq +1.4%, Philly semicos +0.7%. Nymex crude settled $1.44 lower at $81.25/bbl. Gold futures retreated as stronger-than-expected retail sales, comments from Fed raised questions about amount of U.S. fiscal stimulus market expects; December Comex gold fell $5.60 to $1,372/oz. ([email protected])

Disclaimer: Beaware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)
  • #19,708
  • Oct 17, 2010 3:38pm Oct 17, 2010 3:38pm
Quoting MaMood
comments from Fed raised questions about amount of U.S. fiscal stimulus market expects;
That's the way I took it, but there's plenty of pundits out there spouting the opposite, more QE needed.

I'm more leaning towards devaluation to force Panda's pegged hand.

With both, a temp truce that seems to be one the table between China/US, and Heli's statements, it would seem that the run may be over.

See what happens

regards
  • #19,709
  • Edited 10:03pm Oct 17, 2010 9:35pm | Edited 10:03pm
eyes open e/u 3872 area.

a/u 9832
g/u 5922

they will tell us which way to go.

although the trend is down , may I have a push over 3889 please.
  • #19,710
  • Oct 18, 2010 2:26am Oct 18, 2010 2:26am
Good morning Friends,

seems EURUSD has found a little support in the 3860 area for now.
Very curious what will happen next.
Don't think that the move is over finally, but it seems she needs a little input to do the Quick Step again ...

Keep your eyes open and stay nimble and patient!

CU,
MaMood
  • #19,711
  • Oct 18, 2010 2:40am Oct 18, 2010 2:40am
Hi again,

seems I'll get no opinions about that zulutrade thingy from you ...
Never mind, I know it is a problematic topic

My most valuable experience/discovery, after my brain has grapped the basics of fti's ideas and MO, was the little question:

"Hey Niels, what are you doing here?"

It is a kind of stepping aside and looking from "outside" on my recent trading activities. So I'm able to check, if I'm still on track or if I got caughted for example in a "dead in the water" scenario.

When asking me that question it is always the time, when I take a look at the longer timeframe charts.

Would be cool if I would me this magic question at least every hour.
But sometimes i'm very deep caught up by my fights and forget about checking the battleground. So I very often miss neccessary oppotunities to realign my troops to be in sync with the bigger picture ...

May be I should build up a little MT4 indicator, that asks me every hour that magic question ;-)

CU,
MaMood
  • #19,712
  • Oct 18, 2010 2:55am Oct 18, 2010 2:55am
Just for info:

0731 GMT [Dow Jones] JPY gained in Asia Monday amid speculation the Japanese authorities will hold off intervention ahead of the upcoming G20 meeting at the end of the week says BBH. USD/JPY sank to 80.95 early Monday just 7 ticks away from its 15 year low while EUR/JPY hit at a 3-week low of 112.49 and GBP/JPY a one-month 128.72.([email protected])

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible COw Dung included ;-)
  • #19,713
  • Oct 18, 2010 3:21am Oct 18, 2010 3:21am
Hi Niels and Friends.
I am not somebody who can say something valid, because i am not still experienced trader. But, yesterday i was repeating Fti teaching. He wrotes about his twoo minds. One is bicameral fast and strong and another little boy and that these twoo are talking and talking one to each other...and this dialogue is neverending.
You are the great trader and you are very helpfull.
Ability to engage in this inner dialogue is probably (i cant say it 100% because i am not good trader yet) the thing, what makes the difference between profitable and non.profitable "traders".
... you have the "self-controll"...
Regards



Quoting MaMood
Hi again,

seems I'll get no opinions about that zulutrade thingy from you ...
Never mind, I know it is a problematic topic

My most valuable experience/discovery, after my brain has grapped the basics of fti's ideas and MO, was the little question:

"Hey Niels, what are you doing here?"

It is a kind of stepping aside and looking from "outside" on my recent trading activities. So I'm able to check, if I'm still on track or if I got caughted for example in a "dead in the water" scenario.

When asking me that question it is always...
  • #19,714
  • Oct 18, 2010 3:22am Oct 18, 2010 3:22am
Hi again,

wasn't it a perfect down move of cable thisb early London morning?
A perfect offer for scaling in and out into your attacks ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-10-17_CableLondon.jpg Size: 88 KB
  • #19,715
  • Oct 18, 2010 4:01am Oct 18, 2010 4:01am
There is another observation I made, when I practised fti's teachings:
Listen to your gut feeling or let's say instinct.

The basic fact is that your instinct or gut feeling is not influenced by your conscious thinking part of the brain. That are these feeling that most of the time are very clear (and right) and not filtered by your expeactions, fears and hopes.

It is this kind of feeling you sometimes have, when you send in the scout, and direct after your arder is opened you fell it is not "right". Or if you send in an additional amount of troops and you do not feel confident with that action right from the beginning.

There is only one suitable "reaction" to that very clear and straight feelings: Correct your acction immediately. Your subconscious is most of the time right, becasue it does the "pure" signalprocessing in your brain. No wishful thinking, no fears, no hopes ...

Ok -hope Iwas able to describe it in an understandable way.
It's up to you to give it a try ....

Good success,
MaMood

Edit: I should add, I'm not talking about prediction. It is not the "feeling" that gives you a kind of "sure conviction", that that was the bottom and it can only go up now or something like that. You have to listen more deeply to your instincts, not to mix your instincts up with your "crystal balling" and/or hope an the like ....
  • #19,716
  • Oct 18, 2010 5:28am Oct 18, 2010 5:28am
Quoting MaMood
Hi friends,

was hestitating a long time now to bring that topic up here in this thread.
But finally I'm very interested in your opinion ...

Some of us (may be many of us) have the problem, that out starting capitalisation is to small to make a living out of trading, when using very conservative risk paramerters. Risking max 5% per battle only and making...
Hi MaMood,

I am familiar with at least Collective2 project and I know some people who use it on both the signal selling end and the receiving end. The setup is a little bit tricky but once you get it working you can send your manual or automatic trades to it. The site then keeps an independent view on your trading and with consistent performance you can get an audience.

With that said, it is not for me. I don't want the responsibility. I want to trade when I want and how I want. Without second guessing if my fans would like this or that.

Maybe it is a good tool for keeping your own discipline in check.

From the money aspect.. I believe you can make more with a part time job. At least then it is a sure thing.
  • #19,717
  • Oct 18, 2010 5:29am Oct 18, 2010 5:29am
Quoting MaMood
There is another observation I made, when I practised fti's teachings:
Listen to your gut feeling or let's say instinct.

The basic fact is that your instinct or gut feeling is not influenced by your conscious thinking part of the brain. That are these feeling that most of the time are very clear (and right) and not filtered by your expeactions, fears and hopes.

It is this kind of feeling you sometimes have, when you send in the scout, and direct after your arder is opened you fell it is not "right". Or if you send in an additional amount...
I believe "the dance" is already the gut feel you are talking about.
Otherwise we would have a set of rules to follow..

Then there is the "level" or "strength" of the gut feel.. I mean when your gut tells that you are wrong and let's say you are at -7 pips, is it enough to book the loss? Is it strong enough to flip? Or it is so weak that you decide to "sit it out" or doubt yourself.

There are many forms of "gut" feel, lol. Including the size of trades to choose.. usually a big win is followed by a big loss, rarely the opposite.

As I undersand you are doing fine. Maybe the gut feel is just the skill? Which gets improved over time.
  • #19,718
  • Edited 6:52am Oct 18, 2010 6:34am | Edited 6:52am
Quoting MaMood
There is another observation I made, when I practised fti's teachings:
Listen to your gut feeling or let's say instinct.

The basic fact is that your instinct or gut feeling is not influenced by your conscious thinking part of the brain. That are these feeling that most of the time are very clear (and right) and not filtered by your expeactions, fears and hopes.

It is this kind of feeling you sometimes have, when you send in the scout, and direct after your arder is opened you fell it is not "right". Or if you send in an additional amount of...
Hi MaMood and Piccolo

as I understand it:
how you gave the parable of "learning to ride bike"
"subconscious mind is 90% faster (sees 90%) than the conscious mind 10% (sees10%)"
10% of the mind is only a "tool".
Therefore, FTI wrote: "I was in the process of rescue on a demo account a 24 hours" ... why? because you learn the subconscious badly and the subconscious will remember it and vice versa.

Rgs
  • #19,719
  • Oct 18, 2010 6:52am Oct 18, 2010 6:52am
Quoting Gro
Hi MaMood and Piccolo

as I understand it:
how you gave the parable of "learning to ride bike" = "subconscious mind is 90% faster (sees 90%) than the conscious mind 10% (sees10%)"
10% of the mind is only a "tool".
Therefore, FTI wrote: "I was in the process of rescue on a demo account a 24 hours" ... why? because you learn the subconscious badly and the subconscious will remember it and vice versa.

Rgs
Hi Gro and Piccolo,

I guess there is a misunderstanding to some degree.
I'm talking about the "instincts" as fti has called that group of "knowledge" or feelings.

From my experience these instincts are beside the feeling for the market and the dance. They only pop up from time to time (well - that can also mean, that I'm feeling the market only from to time too).
It is i.e not the fear, when delploying a good amount of troops and PA turns against you. It is a fuzzy feeling, a sudden input from "somewhere" inside you, that you are doing wrong. And as I have experienced these kind of feelings, they are most of the time with a negative bias, like "you are wrong", "size is to big", "you jumped in to early" ....

However - have no idea how to explain it more intuitive or bettre understandable to you.

@Gro: You are right with your statement. It is very difficult to unlearn a bad behavior, toerase it from your subconscious (for example the experience you make when gambling in a FX contest ;-))

Cu,
MaMood
  • #19,720
  • Oct 18, 2010 7:34am Oct 18, 2010 7:34am
Wow - someone is trying hard to push EURUSD below 139 again.
But not sure if he will win the battle ....
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