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  • #2,881
  • Oct 16, 2010 10:05pm Oct 16, 2010 10:05pm
Quoting zznbrm
Well I guess I do not understand the system then, because at the time of your entries the TMA values (your signal to trade) were nowhere near the values you are displaying.

As an "outsider" to this system, I must be incorrect in my interpretation and implementation of the rules. Sorry for the diversion. I'll delete my posts so as to not clutter your thread.

Best of luck with your new system!
One of the problems you are facing is your backtester is flawed. I finally made EAs profitable for use when I quit using them things (backtesters) for other than to see if they EA worked or not. I went back to last weeks trades and the TMA lines are still where they were when I took their signals and so are the MA lines. It is now 1 week later, the trades are closed and in profit. I have not experienced in real time trading (which by the way is the only thing that matters) the movement you are so found of pointing out. You are basing your conclusions on a flawed backtester model of look at this from 2, 3 or more weeks ago. It is irrelevant. Cant see why you dont understand that.
  • #2,882
  • Oct 16, 2010 10:20pm Oct 16, 2010 10:20pm
Hi Peter,
Great post on your interpretation of the bands....I have them at 3.0 deviation...and when they touch it's mostly a winner. Could you share that template...and a comment about how you would use the oscillator. mladen does do great work!

Thanks
Cheers
CanuckCT

Quoting peterke
Hi, I have traded TMA bands for a while and have a couple of suggestions having read the posts on the V6 strategy

The version of the TMA bands you are using is set to a very long cycle period, if you set this to between 10 and 15 and reduce the ATR period to 50 the bands fit the price movements better. (There is some great stuff on forex TSD on setting up bands using the right cycle length.)

The benefit is more trades per month from the better pairs and you can ignore the strangely behaving pairs.

My second thought is to set up two bands on...
  • #2,883
  • Oct 16, 2010 11:00pm Oct 16, 2010 11:00pm
In case some of you dont believe me on the TMA band moves very little over time on a 4H chart. Go to post 2794 p. 187. You will see a pic of the gbp/jpy using TMA lines from a week ago. It is now a week later and you can compare todays image with an image from a week ago. You will see for all practical purposes the lines are in the exact same place even though it is a week later. Even the lines going back several weeks are still in the same place.

If you still dont believe me take pictures of various currencies today and compare them a week from now. I think you will see there will be very little difference. After that it doesnt matter where we are two weeks down the road trading live. The past is done and gone.
  • #2,884
  • Oct 16, 2010 11:17pm Oct 16, 2010 11:17pm
Quoting CanuckCT
Hi Peter,
Great post on your interpretation of the bands....I have them at 3.0 deviation...and when they touch it's mostly a winner. Could you share that template...and a comment about how you would use the oscillator. mladen does do great work!

Thanks
Cheers
CanuckCT
I would like an EA based on TMA bands. I have not found one yet, do you know where one could be?
  • #2,885
  • Oct 16, 2010 11:32pm Oct 16, 2010 11:32pm
Here is an improvement I am adding change the RSI to 3 and watch how the TMA filters out bad RSI reads. When you have TMA and RSI agree take the trade and go for small profit. When TMA gives a signal and RSI has divergance then go for the bigger profit. This may help you in staying in or out of a trade and how long to hang in there. RSI divergance trades will give you bigger runs over straight up RSI and TMA trades. Just thought I would post this and I am going to add to my system starting Monday. So if you see divergance, go for the home run.

Green lines are RSI false signals Red are buy and sell signals. Blue lines show divergance with RSI and the moves that went with them.
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  • #2,886
  • Oct 17, 2010 5:27am Oct 17, 2010 5:27am
Drop everything you are doing and read this article. I am a fan of John Maudin newsletter and this is the biggest story of the year. We have a potential bigger blowout than the banking crisis of 2008. Read this

http://www.varatrade.com/Blog/blogdetail.aspx?id=4

"People still haven't figured out what all this means. But I'll tell you: if enough mortgage-paying homeowners realize that they may be able to get out of their mortgage loans and keep their houses, scott-free? That's basically a license to halt payments right now, thank you. That's basically a license to tell the banks to take a hike.

"The fact that Ally Financial (formerly GMAC), JP Morgan Chase, and now Bank of America have suspended foreclosures signals that this is a serious problem...obviously. Banks that size, with that much exposure to foreclosed properties, don't suspend foreclosures just because they're good corporate citizens who want to do the right thing, and who have all their paperwork in strict order...they're halting their foreclosures for a reason.
  • #2,887
  • Oct 17, 2010 5:33am Oct 17, 2010 5:33am
Hello Bob,

The info in your link has been a well known problem that people from the us have known about and it will continue to be a problem for years to come but there is a much bigger problem the us deficit.
Read the info at this link http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_upshot...it-really-mean

Regards,
Jeff

Quoting nanningbob
Drop everything you are doing and read this article. I am a fan of John Maudin newsletter and this is the biggest story of the year. We have a potential bigger blowout than the banking crisis of 2008. Read this

http://www.varatrade.com/Blog/blogdetail.aspx?id=4

[color=DarkRed]"People still haven't figured out what all this means. But I'll tell you: if enough mortgage-paying homeowners realize that they may be able to get out of their mortgage loans and keep their houses, scott-free? That's basically...
  • #2,888
  • Oct 17, 2010 5:48am Oct 17, 2010 5:48am
Hi Bob,

I meant to post this....must be losing it, actually though I did post it. I'll be forward testing it this week.

Cheers
CanuckCT

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=4069952

Quoting nanningbob
I would like an EA based on TMA bands. I have not found one yet, do you know where one could be?
  • #2,889
  • Oct 17, 2010 5:59am Oct 17, 2010 5:59am
Quoting azjeff
Hello Bob,

The info in your link has been a well known problem that people from the us have known about and it will continue to be a problem for years to come but there is a much bigger problem the us deficit.
Read the info at this link http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_upshot...it-really-mean

Regards,
Jeff
US deficit is not as big of a problem, YET, we can handle 100% debt to GDP ratio. Great Britain has been around 100% off and on for over 200 years. This other thing, however, has been hiding in the wings and could collapse everything quickly. As far as debt goes you file bankruptcy and start over. Remember Germany basically went bankrupt 3 times in the 20th century, WW1, depression, WW2. You can survive and overcome bankruptcy (several nations already have) as long as you can keep totalitarian leaders from taking over.
  • #2,890
  • Oct 17, 2010 6:08am Oct 17, 2010 6:08am
I disagree. The idiots who are in the us congress are leading the way of turning America into a 3rd world country. California is the biggest state in the United States and it can not pay its debt. In fact it may default on its debt. Then it is just a matter of time before the USA could default on its debt. The Unemployment rate is 10% and getting worse. Thus, tax revenues are down so the us debt will even get worse. The item in your link is nothing new to people from the usa as that has been happening for the last few years. That will not cause the downfall of the us. The dollar is already worthless and the debt load just keeps getting worse.

Regards,
Jeff

Quoting nanningbob
US deficit is not as big of a problem, YET, we can handle 100% debt to GDP ratio. Great Britain has been around 100% off and on for over 200 years. This other thing, however, has been hiding in the wings and could collapse everything quickly. As far as debt goes you file bankruptcy and start over. Remember Germany basically went bankrupt 3 times in the 20th century, WW1, depression, WW2. You can survive and overcome bankruptcy (several nations already have) as long as you can keep totalitarian leaders from taking over.
  • #2,891
  • Oct 17, 2010 6:22am Oct 17, 2010 6:22am
Quoting nanningbob
One of the problems you are facing is your backtester is flawed. I finally made EAs profitable for use when I quit using them things (backtesters) for other than to see if they EA worked or not. I went back to last weeks trades and the TMA lines are still where they were when I took their signals and so are the MA lines. It is now 1 week later, the trades are closed and in profit. I have not experienced in real time trading (which by the way is the only thing that matters) the movement you are so found of pointing out. You are basing your conclusions...
I hardly canīt believe what I am reading here!!!

In one single post you are making all theese claims,

1. Backtester is flawed and therefor canīt be used, or at least what we are presenting is incorrect! (2 independent mql4 programmers)

2. When you stopped backtest your EAīs you suddenly became profitable!

3. Because your trades THIS LAST WEEK were profitable you it is more likely that our conclusions are wrong.

I think it is time for you to halt and think about what you really are saying, because your credibility is on the line here, and now you are entering water which even the newest of the new to forex-trading would be able to identify as absolute ...

/ McKeen
  • #2,892
  • Oct 17, 2010 6:22am Oct 17, 2010 6:22am
Quoting azjeff
I disagree. The idiots who are in the us congress are leading the way of turning America into a 3rd world country. California is the biggest state in the United States and it can not pay its debt. In fact it may default on its debt. Then it is just a matter of time before the USA could default on its debt. The Unemployment rate is 10% and getting worse. Thus, tax revenues are down so the us debt will even get worse. The item in your link is nothing new to people from the usa as that has been happening for the last few years. That will not cause...
We may see things from different viewpoints but the bottom line is we are already bankrupt. I just wish we would just file and get it over with. The longer we put it off the worse it will be when we do.
  • #2,893
  • Edited 7:03am Oct 17, 2010 6:31am | Edited 7:03am
Quoting nanningbob
In case some of you dont believe me on the TMA band moves very little over time on a 4H chart. Go to post 2794 p. 187. You will see a pic of the gbp/jpy using TMA lines from a week ago. It is now a week later and you can compare todays image with an image from a week ago. You will see for all practical purposes the lines are in the exact same place even though it is a week later. Even the lines going back several weeks are still in the same place.

If you still dont believe me take pictures of various currencies today and compare them a week...
And as if the previous post wasnīt enough here you go again, showing that you havenīt even tried our contributions, but nonetheless want to prove your point.

Because if you would have taken the time to drag and drop the indicator to your chart you would have known that it is an INDICATOR that will display on any chart, no backtester necessary. It displays at the same time as your TMA, and what it is displaying is absolutely correct - not some error in code or backtester.

Your most important thing seem to be just defense and proving your point, with absolutely zero input.

My advice to anyone is to read up on this and draw your own conclusions.

/ McKeen
  • #2,894
  • Edited 7:53am Oct 17, 2010 6:51am | Edited 7:53am
Quoting zznbrm
Well I guess I do not understand the system then, because at the time of your entries the TMA values (your signal to trade) were nowhere near the values you are displaying.

As an "outsider" to this system, I must be incorrect in my interpretation and implementation of the rules. Sorry for the diversion. I'll delete my posts so as to not clutter your thread.

Best of luck with your new system!
Your first line in this quote describes this situation very good, that is exactly mine and yours point that somehow wonīt be understood by some.

Please donīt delete your posts.

OP has a responsibilty towards his followers, and it is essential that they have all neccessary information available to make an objective evaluation of this TMA-situation that has went totally out of line...

Your INDICATOR is gold and key to that.

/ McKeen
  • #2,895
  • Oct 17, 2010 11:28am Oct 17, 2010 11:28am
Quoting nanningbob
In case some of you dont believe me on the TMA band moves very little over time on a 4H chart. Go to post 2794 p. 187. You will see a pic of the gbp/jpy using TMA lines from a week ago. It is now a week later and you can compare todays image with an image from a week ago. You will see for all practical purposes the lines are in the exact same place even though it is a week later. Even the lines going back several weeks are still in the same place.

If you still dont believe me take pictures of various currencies today and compare them a week...
Bob,

I agree w/ McKeen. If you load the LFH simulator that someone posted a bit back and run it and then load the TMA, you will find that when the market does move a bit then the bands move an enormous amount.

However, it doesn't really matter if you got your 30 pips or whatever out of it. It is besides the point.

The point I think is when the 1MA crosses (for me not price), will it give enough pips on a retrace if I have a 100 pip stop in. I have to be right 3/4 times to be profitable.

This could be simply put into an EA with no bands showing, the RSI filter and everything all plugged in and would have no problem being fully automatic.

Now, considering the success I have seen with fully auto-EA's, then my negative Nancy comes out and says, "It probably doesn't work or isn't profitable".

However, visually after looking at charts on REPLAY SIMULATOR, it does look decent on many currencies.

I also like Duffy's idea's about using the trend trading in addition on a breakout with the 1MA outside the band with a small stop.

If someone with some decent MQL skills could step up and create something easy and efficient, then we can prove if this thing works or not.

Then it is Bob's or anyone else's choice to accept if backtesting is ok or not. Personally a backtest on a 4HR chart should be plenty accurate to evaluate how close to reality this method is or not.

Seems to be profitable, but until an EA is built, I will withhold my $$.
We are our own best indicator.
  • #2,896
  • Oct 17, 2010 12:26pm Oct 17, 2010 12:26pm
Quoting McKeen
Your first line in this quote describes this situation very good, that is exactly mine and yours point that somehow wonīt be understood by some.

Please donīt delete your posts.

OP has a responsibilty towards his followers, and it is essential that they have all neccessary information available to make an objective evaluation of this TMA-situation that has went totally out of line...

Your INDICATOR is gold and key to that.

/ McKeen
McKeen:

Instead of getting into a pissing contest, why don't you test the system?

I have tested various iterations of the system over different timeframes. I do it using the strategy tester on a forward moving basis. Also I've now checked zzbrn's indicator and it gives the same entry points as I was getting with the forward going testing, so I'm using it now instead (so I have the option of looking back and forth). It's been quite useful.

The system has been tweaked some during the testing so the results aren't fully comparable. But here is what I've seen:

USDJPY 5/02 -8/03 1375 net pips, 17% net pips/risk/trade
USDJPY 1/07-12/07 1904 net pips, 41% net pips/risk/trade
EURAUD 7/09 - present 1630 net pips, 31% net pips/risk/trade
USDCAD 6/09 - present 3449 net pips, 33% net pips/risk/trade

The last figure simply divides the net pips/trade by the stop loss. What it means, for example, is that if you bet 1% of your account on a trade in USDCAD over that period, you could expect to get a gain of .33% on that trade.

These are backtests, and are only as valid as backtests can be. If you want to prove or disprove them, then do some testing on your own. It's up to you to decide what you want to do with these results. But the argument over the TMA indicator, even if you are right, is pointless. Just do the tests and see for yourself.
  • #2,897
  • Oct 17, 2010 12:43pm Oct 17, 2010 12:43pm
I'd like to elaborate a bit on my testing and the results. The key number for me is what I've called %net pips/risk/trade. This is the average amount that the system gives back to you when compared with your stop loss. My tests on the newest version show that figure to be somewhere between 25 and 40%.

What does that mean? Last week, in a live demo, I made over 6% on this system using static lots. My %netpips/risk/trade for that week was just over 40%. These are amazing results. And my tests so far show that they are probably on the high side.

And there are some inherent problems with my testing. It doesn't take into account the spread. So you have to lower my numbers some to take that into account. Then there is slippage, which can't be captured on a backtest. And there are other factors: lost connections, EA malfunction with MT4, brain farts.

Also, when backtesting, you might hit a really long candle with short wicks. I assume on these bars that there was a strong move in one direction, and read the results based on those results. There are cases however, where these bars could have moved through a BE point, then jumped back to take out a stop, and then moved on their merry way. So there may be a few trades where I'm counting more profit than I should.

These are all weaknesses of backtesting, and pretty much unavoidable. As a result, I think anyone should look at the test results and discount them a fair bit. But they still show some significant things about the strengths and weaknesses of a system and how it is likely to behave in certain market conditions.

Enough rambling. Time to test some more before market opens.
  • #2,898
  • Oct 17, 2010 12:50pm Oct 17, 2010 12:50pm
Quoting nanningbob
Here is an improvement I am adding change the RSI to 3 and watch how the TMA filters out bad RSI reads. When you have TMA and RSI agree take the trade and go for small profit. When TMA gives a signal and RSI has divergance then go for the bigger profit. This may help you in staying in or out of a trade and how long to hang in there. RSI divergance trades will give you bigger runs over straight up RSI and TMA trades. Just thought I would post this and I am going to add to my system starting Monday. So if you see divergance, go for the home run.

Green...
I'm really confused. The system isn't using RSI signals. So how does filtering out bad RSI signals help? I'd be much more interested if, for example, the RSI signals helped to filter out false TMA signals. Is that the direction you are heading in -- using both RSI and TMA as filters?
  • #2,899
  • Oct 17, 2010 1:09pm Oct 17, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting duffypratt
I'm really confused. The system isn't using RSI signals. So how does filtering out bad RSI signals help? I'd be much more interested if, for example, the RSI signals helped to filter out false TMA signals. Is that the direction you are heading in -- using both RSI and TMA as filters?
I just sent you an email but basically the RSI does filter out the entrance point. When RSI is higher/ lower than 80/20 then turn on the EA after a crossing of the TMA. If there is divergence go for the longer take profit run. If there isnt divergence go for a shorter TP projection like 20-50 pips. I am trying to get out of all these +5 MPTM I am getting. RSI seems to help in the decision making process of how long to ride the trade.
  • #2,900
  • Oct 17, 2010 1:17pm Oct 17, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting duffypratt
Also, when backtesting, you might hit a really long candle with short wicks. I assume on these bars that there was a strong move in one direction, and read the results based on those results. There are cases however, where these bars could have moved through a BE point, then jumped back to take out a stop, and then moved on their merry way. So there may be a few trades where I'm counting more profit than I should.
This is why you always drill down to a smaller timeframe when you get a really long candle so you can more accurately determine what actually happened.

Yes, of course backtesting has flaws. However, with the proper mechanisms, these flaws can be minimized to such a level that results are very accurate.

Visual backtesting is a great tool to get a "feeling" about a strategy before moving forward with EA development, advanced backtesting, live forward testing, and live trading. However, one must understand the indicators used and how these indicators trick us with inaccurate past data. One must also have a firm understanding of multi-timeframe indicator development because there are nuances about MTF indicators that need to be addressed. Only then can visual backtesting give you an accurate assessment of a strategy.

Thank you very much for your efforts.
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