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Part 2 EURUSD Trend magic System

  • #141
  • Oct 16, 2010 3:33pm Oct 16, 2010 3:33pm
Quoting KumoDragon
Why do you say only trade GU then, it has plenty of movement in the US session? Also, Im in US central time so that is about 1 AM for me I think, so thats not going to happen.

My charts are +0 and the spread was about 4 when I was trading for GU.
not a great spread like bug said and i've had not great luck with it. there are better pairs for the ny sessions.
i think the gbp pairs might be better trades during london hours.
  • #142
  • Oct 16, 2010 3:52pm Oct 16, 2010 3:52pm
Quoting simpletrades
fiber is eurusd?
Indeed it is. When I find myself having to type eurusd a number of times in a text I usually replace it with fiber because it's just easier (I'm a speedwriter so ease of writing is an issue when choosing what specific words to use, I like to keep a constantly high speed, typing eurusd just feel slow and 'wrong' LOL).
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #143
  • Oct 16, 2010 3:53pm Oct 16, 2010 3:53pm
Bug and or Vantage, on this jpeg I've marked a H/L/LH sequence that matches up with TM & BB from last friday 15th of OCT on EUR/USD. In the US session.

Is this more or less what you look for before entry?

And where would either of you place your entry?

Also I use, "zig zag fractal A," indicator to help point out the H/L/LH sequences, is there a better way of spotting them?
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  • #144
  • Oct 16, 2010 5:36pm Oct 16, 2010 5:36pm
Quoting KumoDragon
Bug and or Vantage, on this jpeg I've marked a H/L/LH sequence that matches up with TM & BB from last friday 15th of OCT on EUR/USD. In the US session.

Is this more or less what you look for before entry?

And where would either of you place your entry?

Also I use, "zig zag fractal A," indicator to help point out the H/L/LH sequences, is there a better way of spotting them?
except that red bar after the lower high was the bar opening 830 am est just when a whole slew of economic releases were being reported and TM didnt go red with a bar below it until the 8:40 est bar. stop would have needed to be about 20-25 pips to put it above R1.
  • #145
  • Oct 16, 2010 5:46pm Oct 16, 2010 5:46pm
Quoting simpletrades
except that red bar after the lower high was the bar opening 830 am est just when a whole slew of economic releases were being reported and TM didnt go red with a bar below it until the 8:40 est bar. stop would have needed to be about 20-25 pips to put it above R1.
Yes, I know about the news coming out at that time. But, regardless of news thats the set up for TM + H/L/LH set up right?
  • #146
  • Oct 16, 2010 5:59pm Oct 16, 2010 5:59pm
Quoting KumoDragon
Yes, I know about the news coming out at that time. But, regardless of news thats the set up for TM + H/L/LH set up right?
hlh is just an add in vantage uses, its not really paulus' system i dont think, but regardless, the short is after price goes below TM.
  • #147
  • Oct 16, 2010 6:11pm Oct 16, 2010 6:11pm
Quoting simpletrades
hlh is just an add in vantage uses, its not really paulus' system i dont think, but regardless, the short is after price goes below TM.
Yes, I know it's not in paulus original method. It just seems that if you just blindly enter on the change of the TM and it happens to be a ranging day you could get screwed pretty quick.
  • #148
  • Oct 17, 2010 2:30am Oct 17, 2010 2:30am
Quoting KumoDragon
I'm familiar with looking for H/L/H sequence through using sonic. ( Stopped using that because there were some good trade because of it, but also a lot of fakeouts)

My questions would be when do you enter using trendmagic and H/L/H, do you wait for it to pass to the other side of TM or just when it looks like a continuation from a lower high (short) or higher low (long).

Also when it hits the lower high, how do you know its not just going to continue upward? Or are you just using the direction of the TM + the higher low as your bias?
I don't want this thread to become a hl/lh thread when there are several (including mine) but very briefly: FO/LO each are likely to have reversals around half an hour in, 7.30 gmt and 8.30 gmt. I look to trade hl/lh's and 2b trades in that time frame exactly as per my thread. Once LO range has been broken hopefully the LO head fake has played its hand and the session range will follow. From there its follow TM as per Paulus with hl/lh's. If 8-10 gmt is quiet then you guessed it the move is likely to happen around 11-1pm gmt. If London range decent then around 11-1 gmt it might well consolidate around its extremes waiting for early US to chip in.

Does this happen every day, of course not, does it happen often enough to build a method around (like Paulus' here) yes. So you can take something like this and some knowledge of likely times of moves in the market and build a method. Always remembering that if you have entered on right side of trend and you've had a test of direction (a hl/lh) and trend resumes again the odds are put that little bit better in your favour.

So we are looking for hl/lh's on the correct side of TM, if the hl/lh occurs on a TM cross thats also fine, but make no mistake we're looking for hl/lh's ie the test and confirmation of trend.

Hope this helps, if unclear perhaps discussion better served on a hl/lh thread and keeping this for TM trades.
  • #149
  • Oct 17, 2010 2:51am Oct 17, 2010 2:51am
Quoting KumoDragon
1. Short loss: Had just got up TM and BB were red and price was close to it, so I got in short. Almost as soon as I got in both turned blue so I got out.

2. Long BE: Got in right after both tm and bb turned blue. Waited for the news. Could have taken +50 but instead I put trade at BE and was stopped out.

3. Long loss: The hammer before my entry made it look like it was just a higher low to me, so I got back in after my stop out at BE. It of course then tottally reversed.

4. short loss: TM & BB turned red and had a big candle going through...
Hi Kumo
Your trades:
1) Its definitely a lh but price doesn't go 1 pip below the candle. That alone would have failed my final requirement. This little trick will save you some losing trades, honest.
3) In and around news will do that at times. Nothing you can do.
4 and 5) Price action has moved much too far to get in, on the sell that last large candle is from 6061 to 6025, much to big and increases your stop and risk level much too much. I get worried at 15+ pip candles.
6) Again a very large candle closing on RN, both very dangerous. Price doesn't go 1 pip lower below 1.60 but the size of candle, RN both would have kept me out.

Hope this helps a little.
  • #150
  • Oct 17, 2010 3:49am Oct 17, 2010 3:49am
Quoting Indrek
Here is my trade from the same period. It was a nice catch because I was not expecting such a bearish move.

did u go long after the breakout, then slap with a stop loss.
since the trend is heading south now, u then go short and ride the trend down?
  • #151
  • Oct 17, 2010 4:26am Oct 17, 2010 4:26am
Quoting KumoDragon
Bug and or Vantage, on this jpeg I've marked a H/L/LH sequence that matches up with TM & BB from last friday 15th of OCT on EUR/USD. In the US session.

Is this more or less what you look for before entry?

And where would either of you place your entry?

Also I use, "zig zag fractal A," indicator to help point out the H/L/LH sequences, is there a better way of spotting them?

I just eyeball.

Same eur chart, left arrow, clear lh but TM hasn't turned around yet.

2nd from left. There is a lh close on 4075, that prob would be a losing entry with a small stop. Price then tries for 1.41 fails for a nice lh trade below the RN. So if you count this as a -12 ish and a + whatever but bigger than 12.

3rd arrow from left, I definitely would not have let this go to a losing trade from prob close to +20 up.

The x has now made a higher high from prev trade so its a difficult sell to make.

Right arrow down another lh that works nicely but perhaps late in session.

All the sells have nice lh's, entry candles have little/small lower wicks, none of set up candles are overly large.

You decide on your own stop, take profit levels, or whether you'll follow system. Entry 1 pip or so below the set up candle you identify as the lh.
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  • #152
  • Oct 17, 2010 7:36am Oct 17, 2010 7:36am
Quoting kedridder
did u go long after the breakout, then slap with a stop loss.
since the trend is heading south now, u then go short and ride the trend down?
Unfortunately, I missed the previous long trade possibility. If I took it, I would exit manually at the close of the huge candle taking 45-50 pips. Not wise to risk with retracement or reversal.
  • #153
  • Oct 18, 2010 3:24am Oct 18, 2010 3:24am
There were a couple of earlier lh trades, we got this one, exited +24 when move below 50 level stalled. Due to size of session run didn't want to wait for TM to poss get hit, that type of exit is typical of our trades.
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  • #154
  • Oct 18, 2010 5:18am Oct 18, 2010 5:18am
Quoting kedridder
did u go long after the breakout, then slap with a stop loss.
since the trend is heading south now, u then go short and ride the trend down?
This is exactly what I do. If a trade gives you 50 pips in a spike, TAKE IT! Use your judgment, you are trading your money. I have closed NUMEROUS trades just like this while using TM. When market is trending, use it to ride the wave, move your stops and wait. If during a news event it gives you 50 PIPS in a spike...TAKE IT and wait for the next signal. Jeez that's 50 pips you lost!
  • #155
  • Oct 18, 2010 6:04am Oct 18, 2010 6:04am
Quoting Colostarr
This is exactly what I do. If a trade gives you 50 pips in a spike, TAKE IT! Use your judgment, you are trading your money. I have closed NUMEROUS trades just like this while using TM. When market is trending, use it to ride the wave, move your stops and wait. If during a news event it gives you 50 PIPS in a spike...TAKE IT and wait for the next signal. Jeez that's 50 pips you lost!

Thats very good! cool 50 PIPS there.
For your own strategy, does the BB MACD play a part here?
  • #156
  • Oct 18, 2010 8:50am Oct 18, 2010 8:50am
Quoting kedridder
Thats very good! cool 50 PIPS there.
For your own strategy, does the BB MACD play a part here?
Rarely...from my experience in this forum, people try to learn a new system and stick to it to the very letter. Which is good, but use judgement. I love to set and forget, and I take the greed factor OUT of my exit strategy. If I see a setup, I take it, if the pair SPIKES (actually took a 100 pip bearish move on Friday!), I close the trade and put the pips in my bank. If it trends in a favorable direction, I move the stops in accordance with the entry instructions, if the stop hits, it hits, if not not I keep moving it until it does get hit. The system is so simple, it is designed to minimize your losses and maximize your profits. If you get a signal, take it, if it spikes close it, if not move your stops until you get stopped out (K.I.S.S). Be happy with the PIPS you get, but you must also be happy with the PIPS you lose. To answer your question, I use the BB MACD for entry (per the instructions), I use my head for the exit. I've lost 2 trades (-8 pips) last week, I banked well over 400 exiting when it felt good using TM for entry. I took one trade today +12 pips, which takes me to 11 consecutive wins using TM since Monday last. Choose your entries carefully, and NEVER give back pips TAKE THEM!. This is strictly my method and in no way am I trying to circumvent the creators strategies. Trend Magic is a phenomenal system! I've been trading live for 5 years now, this is by far the easiest and most profitable system I've seen in those five years! Just keep it Simple!
  • #157
  • Oct 18, 2010 8:55am Oct 18, 2010 8:55am
I have a question about moving the Stop as per the first post.

We move the stop to the last plateau (straight sidways line) the TM creates when that plateau can no longer be changed by a move of the TM?

So, right now I'm in long trade.

A plateau was created, then TM moved up creating a " backwards L," so the plateau can no longer change direction. This is the point I'd reset my SL?

Or only until another plateau is created above it?
  • #158
  • Oct 18, 2010 8:57am Oct 18, 2010 8:57am
Quoting Colostarr
Rarely...from my experience in this forum, people try to learn a new system and stick to it to the very letter. Which is good, but use judgement. I love to set and forget, and I take the greed factor OUT of my exit strategy. If I see a setup, I take it, if the pair SPIKES (actually took a 100 pip bearish move on Friday!), I close the trade and put the pips in my bank. If it trends in a favorable direction, I move the stops in accordance with the entry instructions, if the stop hits, it hits, if not not I keep moving it until it does get hit. The...
Do you think you could post some charts of your entries and why you took them? I would like to see.
  • #159
  • Oct 18, 2010 9:08am Oct 18, 2010 9:08am
Quoting Colostarr
I took one trade today +12 pips, which takes me to 11 consecutive wins using TM since Monday last. Trend Magic is a phenomenal system! I've been trading live for 5 years now, this is by far the easiest and most profitable system I've seen in those five years! Just keep it Simple!
Very nice, Mrs V and I haven't had a losing trade yet when our normal hl/lh entries line up with TM/bbmacd in the week or so we're used. Early days yet but thats a solid position to start off with.
  • #160
  • Oct 18, 2010 9:18am Oct 18, 2010 9:18am
Oh to the person that had a bad losing day trading the TM crosses, have a look at the trades Paulus posted on page 1. Whether by luck or flaw each trade had a few things in common. 5 min hl/lh's, set up candles weren't overly large, entry candle had little/no wick in direction of trade.
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