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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #19,681
  • Oct 15, 2010 2:30am Oct 15, 2010 2:30am
Sorry, it's me again:

A rumour that China and the US might have struck a deal whereby China allows the CNY to appreciate at a faster rate in return for "less aggressive" US QE spurred some short USD covering yesterday, helping deflate GBP/USD by nearly a cent from an 8-month European morning high of 1.6067. Dow Jones reports that the US Treasury "is likely" to delay today's scheduled release of its semi-annual currency report, "portraying the delay as a way to give China further time to work out policy changes". [...]

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)
  • #19,682
  • Oct 15, 2010 4:22am Oct 15, 2010 4:22am
Hmmh - seems to be a one man show here.
But who cares ...

Do you this feature of FF?

http://www.forexfactory.com/sentiment.php#chart

Well - for sure nothing to rely on.
But a nice gimmick ...
  • #19,683
  • Oct 15, 2010 5:12am Oct 15, 2010 5:12am
Quoting MaMood
Hmmh - seems to be a one man show here.
But who cares ...
No worries, I enjoy the show.

Do you use this feature of FF? No, but it shows that forex is a zero sum game. (For every winner there is a loser).

Hope you are making some pips. Finding it hard work today. Started a couple of attacks, but they did not feel right, so closed them for break even or small loss. Still up 0.31% for the day so I that is better than a loss.

Out now and will have a late lunch, and will wait and see that the NY session brings.

Kind regards to all. Ray
  • #19,684
  • Oct 15, 2010 5:42am Oct 15, 2010 5:42am
Quoting MaMood
Hmmh - seems to be a one man show here.
But who cares ...

Do you this feature of FF?

http://www.forexfactory.com/sentiment.php#chart

Well - for sure nothing to rely on.
But a nice gimmick ...
Hi MaMood,

One man show is way better than no man show.

I don't use that FF feature but it does look nice.

Own brokerage is a hard work but it is doable of course. Maybe FTI is still interested..

Nice to see you are "back" & trading.

Regards,
  • #19,685
  • Oct 15, 2010 5:43am Oct 15, 2010 5:43am
Hey Niels,

seem the factory is full of surprises these days
Still, like you said - nothing to rely on.
Markets in lethargy today, seems everyone is waiting for the news after yesterdays horrid numbers from the US.
Howz your new style getting on? Did you get used to trading a few pairs at once?

Best
S

Quoting MaMood
Hmmh - seems to be a one man show here.
But who cares ...

Do you this feature of FF?

http://www.forexfactory.com/sentiment.php#chart

Well - for sure nothing to rely on.
But a nice gimmick ...
  • #19,686
  • Oct 15, 2010 7:08am Oct 15, 2010 7:08am
Ready for some energetic 30 minutes?
Am prepared to snipe what ever Heli and the Figs will show on the battlefield.

I expect incresing vola in the next 7 minutes and then for 30 minutes ...

Good success out there!

Cu,
MaMood

Edit: BTW the 3 kgds seem to be in sync for the last few hours. So it will probably get a pure "market driven" action without any external/disturbing forces ...
  • #19,687
  • Oct 15, 2010 7:31am Oct 15, 2010 7:31am
Oanda is down again. At least I have made some pips today and am not in a trade at the moment.

All the best for those trading the news and after. Ray
  • #19,688
  • Oct 15, 2010 7:49am Oct 15, 2010 7:49am
maybe it's time to drop oanda
  • #19,689
  • Oct 15, 2010 7:55am Oct 15, 2010 7:55am
Wow wow wow - that mas impulsive.
After all I tend to USD long for the time being.

Bad thing that oanda is down.
I'm using their news feed for backup reasons and it is down too.

In such times I have the option to chose real market orders with my broker. So I'll get a guaranted fill, but of course the prices are sometims not exact what I see on my screen. But I love this mode, because I do not get requotes or off-quotes errors any longer ....
  • #19,690
  • Oct 15, 2010 8:03am Oct 15, 2010 8:03am
Thanx USD - that was a fine move down.
Was trading with heavy load.

My bilance for Heli & Figs:
Made 16 trades on alll 3 pairs.
5 losers
11 winners
Accumulated loss: -3700 EUR
Accumulated win: +9330 EUR

So I'm more than happy with this friday.

And my nervs are ready for the weekend and a fresh cup of coffee ....

Wish you all the best!

CU later,
MaMood
  • #19,691
  • Oct 15, 2010 8:04am Oct 15, 2010 8:04am
That's it party's over. QE2? maybe but not so much, let the correction begin.
  • #19,692
  • Oct 15, 2010 8:42am Oct 15, 2010 8:42am
Quoting auxesis
That's it party's over. QE2? maybe but not so much, let the correction begin.
Those who bought high before Oanda locking platform can't see tomorrow's daylight
  • #19,693
  • Edited 9:50am Oct 15, 2010 9:17am | Edited 9:50am
Quoting auxesis
That's it party's over. QE2? maybe but not so much, let the correction begin.
hehe, did you guys see the 10-20pip spike when Bernanke mentioned QE? Since nothing followed it started to climb down.. and slowly accelerated.

It was fun and very easy to follow. This time, lol.
  • #19,694
  • Oct 15, 2010 9:22am Oct 15, 2010 9:22am
Wow - thanx to a trailing stop my EURUSD took nearly the complete distance down from 41 to 40. Hope fti will not kill me that I have used such tools when I was away ....

  • #19,695
  • Oct 15, 2010 9:32am Oct 15, 2010 9:32am
Again, Oand locked platform. Those sold at low need strong holding power if they wish to see tomorrow's daylight
  • #19,696
  • Oct 15, 2010 9:37am Oct 15, 2010 9:37am
This friday actiopn is somehow very similiar to the last NFP session:
First it went up strongly with high momentum-
Then it went down heavily.
And finally it went up again and reached the levels from before the first move.

Have my Crystal ball not at hand, but i doubt that that will happen today again. If so, we have to reach ~ 14090 again ....

I'm preparing for the next short attack ...
  • #19,697
  • Oct 15, 2010 10:07am Oct 15, 2010 10:07am
Had problems with Oanda today. Down 4% today but it could have been alot worst. I actually closed the all positions when in profit, but their plateform started having problems. It came on later and I tried a small trade this time and the same thing happen. Profit turns into a loss.
Atleast I am not trading now. Feel sorry for those with open trades and can not manage them. Oanda was still downwhen I started writing this.

I have a small account with interbankfx. I will try them next time when there is news and see if they are better.

Looking forward to next week to recover. Hope others here did not have too many problems today. Ray
  • #19,698
  • Oct 15, 2010 1:07pm Oct 15, 2010 1:07pm
Quoting 1234
Had problems with Oanda today. Down 4% today but it could have been alot worst. I actually closed the all positions when in profit, but their plateform started having problems. It came on later and I tried a small trade this time and the same thing happen. Profit turns into a loss.
Atleast I am not trading now. Feel sorry for those with open trades and can not manage them. Oanda was still downwhen I started writing this.

I have a small account with interbankfx. I will try them next time when there is news and see if they are better.

Looking...
Hi Ray,

sad to hear about yours and others oanda probs.
Is there nothing you can do when you call up their service people?
Hopefully you can manage to get some money back or at least some goodies (better spreads like the institutional clients for some weeks or seomthing like that ...)

Wish you good fortune if you are going to try it!

CU,
Niels
  • #19,699
  • Oct 16, 2010 8:16am Oct 16, 2010 8:16am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends,

because I got several PM's in the last 3 weeks, what charts I have opened on my screen - here is my trading desk. Hope you can read everything. But you are welcome to ask.

I'm using no indicators, except
- 60 minute MA
- e special MTF version of standard deviation
- Pivot lines.

My main trading charts are in the middle of the screen with M5 charts of 3 kgds

Have fun ....
nice set up.
In see the cunductor is keeping up with the flow of the symphony.
  • #19,700
  • Oct 16, 2010 8:40am Oct 16, 2010 8:40am
As the symphony plays next week, I will be watching how she responds to the 3993 area with extra interest.
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