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GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

  • #621
  • Oct 7, 2010 1:02pm Oct 7, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting Stocky Monk
Until the daily/ 4hr stops making higher highs or starts forming lower lows there no reason not to assume upside potential to 1.68 medium to long term.

I want to say thank you to Condor45 for keeping the interesting posts flowing in my absence...nice work mate

Stocky
You are more than welcome – although I feel guilty of hogging the thread somewhat.

Flowing – yes, somewhat akin to that which I hope to see again come next week when back in the Okavango Delta. I do hope that the authorities have finally installed those signal aerials that I ask for each year – I have to live with no coverage for the Blackberry, a most shocking situation.

Good shout about those single prints.

1.68... looking at something similar:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=232372

Hmm, does price action show the hunt for a better entry for the push tomorrow post-NFP / reaction to the predictions of GS today, or something a little more prolonged – say Friday the 15th with Ben Bernanke?

Oh, the tangled webs of suspicion that one weaves when trying to take it all in.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #622
  • Oct 7, 2010 1:40pm Oct 7, 2010 1:40pm
Stocky... good you are back. personally I have been away due to my wedding which took place over the weekend.
came back to watch one of my nursed trades hit tp today at 1.6.

once again, thanks to all contributing to this thread. i am learning to trade from intra day to medium term holding of open positions. can't believe that i can hold a position for 3 weeks targeting a particular price level... and today, trade hit tp with +570 pips.
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  • #623
  • Oct 7, 2010 7:33pm Oct 7, 2010 7:33pm
Quoting pkimnyc
getting very close to the first target area.
i would be cautious for double top scenario at that level,
but so far, potential further upside looks promising.
touch down on first target.
today candle formed doji, does not mean it's a reversal.
aiming for 2nd target with lowest entry.
should have plenty of time to get out if things get dicey.
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  • #624
  • Oct 8, 2010 5:50am Oct 8, 2010 5:50am
Quoting 50d
Stocky... good you are back. personally I have been away due to my wedding which took place over the weekend.
came back to watch one of my nursed trades hit tp today at 1.6.

once again, thanks to all contributing to this thread. i am learning to trade from intra day to medium term holding of open positions. can't believe that i can hold a position for 3 weeks targeting a particular price level... and today, trade hit tp with +570 pips.
Hi 50d,

Well done on holding that position....great work ....

Incase you dont already, remember to trail your stop on the medium term positions and lock in profit along the way.

Stocky
  • #625
  • Oct 8, 2010 6:26am Oct 8, 2010 6:26am
Thanks for the analysis, Stocky. I was surprised you set potential reversal target to 1.57xx but on closer examination we haven't had a daily close above August's 1.5940 and to me that is a clue that we could be in for some retracement. In proper economist parlance "possibly somewhat". Or in Manchester: "I haven't got a clue". I too was lucky and held longs right to 1.6. Let's hope the negative price action is merely some profit taking and the NFP sets us trundling again.

By the way, Stocky, remind me to get an invitation to Condor's for dinner. Surely sounds like an impressive effort. I tell you what, British cuisine has come on leaps and bounds in the last 20 years as my recent experience in Bordeaux was uninspiring but interesting - old fashioned I'd say. The best meal we had was at a bistro owned by an Irish guy. The wine was fabulous everywhere, though.
Gone to a better place
  • #626
  • Oct 8, 2010 6:33am Oct 8, 2010 6:33am
By the way, is anyone noticing the weekly range of GBP/JPY? Historically the tightest ever, by my calculation. Like a pipe bomb. The range is less than 2 X the weekly ATR(200) which could lead to some good trades in the near future.
Gone to a better place
  • #627
  • Oct 8, 2010 7:58am Oct 8, 2010 7:58am
Quoting smikester
Thanks for the analysis, Stocky. I was surprised you set potential reversal target to 1.57xx but on closer examination we haven't had a daily close above August's 1.5940 and to me that is a clue that we could be in for some retracement. In proper economist parlance "possibly somewhat". Or in Manchester: "I haven't got a clue". I too was lucky and held longs right to 1.6. Let's hope the negative price action is merely some profit taking and the NFP sets us trundling again.

By the way, Stocky, remind me to get an invitation to Condor's for dinner....
Hi Smikester,

Glad you got in on some nice long positions aswell....it hasnt been easy holding them for me by any means but paitence has paid well in this case.

NFP's just out worse than expected which should help us rise now...Im not convinced our rejection at 1.6019 is over yet.....although we have printed higher than the previous swing high in august we havent closed above yet...I think we will see 1.61 area or at least another spike through resistance at 1.60 before heading lower....I have pick 1.5750/ 5660 area as potential retrace area as it is the daily 38.2fib /50fib of the rise since september and strong daily support.

Whats this about dinner at condors????lol is he a chef??? is that why he travels the world..lol?? where my invite??haha

Stocky
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  • #628
  • Oct 8, 2010 9:35am Oct 8, 2010 9:35am
Quoting 50d
Stocky... good you are back. personally I have been away due to my wedding which took place over the weekend.
came back to watch one of my nursed trades hit tp today at 1.6.

once again, thanks to all contributing to this thread. i am learning to trade from intra day to medium term holding of open positions. can't believe that i can hold a position for 3 weeks targeting a particular price level... and today, trade hit tp with +570 pips.
Forgot to say earlier...congratulations on getting married. That long trade should allow for a room upgrade on the honeymoon..lol Im biting the dust in January..lol

Stocky
  • #629
  • Oct 8, 2010 10:06am Oct 8, 2010 10:06am
Have a good weekend all!!

Stocky
  • #630
  • Oct 8, 2010 10:25am Oct 8, 2010 10:25am
Quoting 50d
I have been away due to my wedding
Haha! Congratulations! Enjoy life. Sorry I did not read your post properly.

Happy Friday everyone.
Gone to a better place
  • #631
  • Oct 8, 2010 11:42pm Oct 8, 2010 11:42pm
Quoting sinner-
I would be happy to buy some GBP at 1.6 if we had a weekly close above there....
Let's see what happens next week!
  • #632
  • Oct 9, 2010 12:02pm Oct 9, 2010 12:02pm
Quoting 50d
will be intresting to see what happens in the triangle shown with the arrow next week. A retrace MAY happen and 5750ish may act as support. In my little experience and understanding, this week is closing as what i regards as a bullish force candle and a break from the descending trendline will mean an attack on 1.6 and above. For sure, the bulls are in control for now.

... still bullish in my opinion
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  • #633
  • Oct 9, 2010 12:16pm Oct 9, 2010 12:16pm
Thanks guys for the wishes. I will be away most of next week with my wife... still on honeymoon mode.
As per the charts, i attach a GU weekly chart. i posted a weekly chart 2 weeks ago and expected 5750 to provide aupport for an attack on 1.6... good to observe that the scenario played out and 1.6 was reached to close my trade but price declined after clearing stops at that level. Me thinks this is an initial reaction and in my lil experience, my expectations next week is that 1.6 will be reached/breached.

my expectations is that "probably" 1.64 fib confluence area may be the next target. based on this my intraday strategy will be to go long GU as good setups arise ... more of buying dips. It will be intresting to see what happens on the daily chart as price has reached the 61.8 fib and theres a pin bar off that level... this may suggest some pull back before reaching/ breaching the 1.6 level.

Once again, thanks to all the seniors in this thread, i have learnt a lot form you guys. i hope to improve as i trade alongside.
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  • #634
  • Oct 15, 2010 12:47am Oct 15, 2010 12:47am
Hi guys,

Quiet in here. I have been busy writing code for the robot, which is very promising.

I direct your attention to the story of The Battle of Thermopylae, which I have not regaled for some time, since January of this year as I recall when the DX was trading at equivalent price levels to todays.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3812

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Try and spot the "crucial" zone mentioned in the above post in the fresh chart.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Thermopylae
  • #635
  • Oct 15, 2010 2:23am Oct 15, 2010 2:23am
gmea Sinner! Interesting analogy and thank you for posting the chart and the battle picture. Where it falls down slightly is the Greeks fighting against the Euro. Or maybe not...
Gone to a better place
  • #636
  • Oct 18, 2010 9:46am Oct 18, 2010 9:46am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Hi All,

I have posted a few charts showing my current veiws on GU....We are at last year daily range support (5916/ 1.6036) now acting as resistance. I expect us to spike through this area after forming a distribution around the 1.60 zone maybe to the top of the 4hr channel and form a higher daily high before retracing and exiting last years daily range....the daily and 4hr chart probably explains it better. If we can break above 1.6036 and hold next target is 1.6262 daily hig vol resistance.

Until the daily/ 4hr stops making higher highs or...
Follow on from previous post...

Fridays announcement on further QE measures for the U.S gave the spike through to 1.6067 upto 1.61 which I have been waiting for....we saw major selling by the institutions into the high volume which is a strong indication for a retracement down to 5700/5750 again and possibly even the all important 5471 monthly level which played a major role in GU bouncing higher on the daily in Sept '10.

The market is anticipating further 100bln QE action for the UK given the US have already announced there intentions hence the market top we have formed at 1.61/1.6067 and selling pressure currently being seen....I’m still bullish on GU medium/long term until I see a daily Lower Low forming i.e. below 5320. I see the data announcement regarding the deficit and QE by the chancellor tomorrow as a fuel injection for us to retrace as it will generally give a bearish knee jerk reaction in my opinion. Although I am still bullish I have closed all medium term Long positions from the 5470/1.5680 area given the ultra high vol Pinbars on the 4hr and hourly after Fridays news announcement... I have no intentions to give profit back to the market through this retrace hence I am flat for the moment and will continue to scalp until I see a good medium term setup....I will be looking to re-entering around the highlighted areas once clear 4 hr/ daily reversal signal have been given with VSA confirmation.

I have attached a few charts:

Daily: Shows the upward channel we have been in is showing clear signs of weakness. We have had daily candles closing outside the channel support on the 12th and 13th Oct which turned out to be fakeouts but nonetheless still signs of weakness in this upmove. Today’s candle trades below the channel support and I will be looking for us to pullback towards the 50%/38.2 fib of the selloff since Friday which is also channel support now resistance....a retest of this area as resistance 5940/80 would be a good platform for NY and Asia to push us lower.

4HR: Shows a clearer chart of the daily upward channel and also highlights the ultra high vol Pinbar formed on the Friday 1300GMT candle.
VSA: 0900GMT candle was a high vol churn, 1300GMT candle was a climax Pinbar....this is a classic topping signal seen at the top of a upmove...given it has occurred on a 4hr chart makes it even more important.

1hr: shows double top pattern and a series of Pinbars.....

All this info coupled with the data tomorrow puts the odds on a strong retracement hence why I am out of all positions other than intraday scalps.

Tradewell.

Stocky
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  • #637
  • Oct 19, 2010 8:46am Oct 19, 2010 8:46am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Follow on from previous post...

Fridays announcement on further QE measures for the U.S gave the spike through to 1.6067 upto 1.61 which I have been waiting for....we saw major selling by the institutions into the high volume which is a strong indication for a retracement down to 5700/5750 again and possibly even the all important 5471 monthly level which played a major role in GU bouncing higher on the daily in Sept '10.
So we have traded down to 5700 area without hardly a pullback...I expect some reversal or retracement around this level....we have single prints located below 5700 at 5680 and 5643.....A spike down to clear them would be a good target for those short from yesterday 5920 area. Not a necessity they are cleared but a good possiblility.

A break of the 5min trendline would also be a good sign for a reversal here.

Stocky
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  • #638
  • Edited 10:49am Oct 19, 2010 10:38am | Edited 10:49am
2 consecutive Climax down bars followed by a high volume churn at 1.57 indicating demand entering....Early signs for a retracement. I would expect Asia and NY traders to push price up 5850 area (61.8 fib) so they can sell at a discount tomorrow prior to the chancellors review on spending and budget cuts.

Stocky
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  • #639
  • Oct 20, 2010 6:10pm Oct 20, 2010 6:10pm
GMAE traders.

Absolutely beautiful trading since the week began. Equities flashcrashed, glad I stayed out of there!

Interested to hear the thoughts of the crowd on the UK proposed budget cuts:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11579979

specifically in reference to EURGBP and GBPUSD.

Is Osborne standing in front of a train called mathematical certainty? Or is this exactly the sort of touch medicine the UK economy needs?

Mish seems to approve, though with very little commentary as to the key issue: too little too late, or a stitch in time?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-of-favor.html
  • #640
  • Edited 5:11am Oct 21, 2010 4:58am | Edited 5:11am
Our lack lustre spending review which, far from offering any positive whatsoever, revealed a government and banking sector banjaxed by debt and bereft of ideas. What these cuts will achieve is higher unemployment and industrial unrest. Margaret Thatcher would approve, but this time round we have no family silver to sell. The only positive I can see will be the devaluation of the pound - hopefully stimulating our export prospects.

We had a daily close above the crucial 1.6 S/R level but now we see a double top formed on the daily, with bearish divergence:

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Gone to a better place
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