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Amyc Trade Journal

  • #841
  • Edited 10:09pm Sep 19, 2010 5:45pm | Edited 10:09pm
AU should be down into 9280 this week, from there I would like to see it continue lower but there is an incomplete chart pattern from last week which could easily see it swing back to 95. I am holding some shorts from 9450 but I was hoping to see 9490 on Friday, not getting this puts a larger down move in doubt for now.
  • #842
  • Sep 19, 2010 10:11pm Sep 19, 2010 10:11pm
Eu did not move down far enough on friday for a short this week. Have exited my shorts from Friday at +100 pips. Target upside for this week is 1.3198.

AU looks to be heading to 9490, will short if it gets there.
  • #843
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:52am Sep 20, 2010 5:52am
Hi, Amy

What charting package do you use to draw those pivot and target lines? Or is it hand-drawn by manual calculation?

Thanks
  • #844
  • Sep 20, 2010 10:23am Sep 20, 2010 10:23am
Quoting amyc
Eu did not move down far enough on friday for a short this week. Have exited my shorts from Friday at +100 pips. Target upside for this week is 1.3198.

AU looks to be heading to 9490, will short if it gets there.
Hi Amy,
Have you gone short on AU now or do you see it going up some more?Thanks.
  • #845
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:41pm Sep 20, 2010 5:41pm
Quoting bravester
Hi Amy,
Have you gone short on AU now or do you see it going up some more?Thanks.
My short orders got triggered at 9490, if the next 4hr bar closes below 9468 then I will be holding down into 9280. If not then I will expect to be stopped out. Stops 9505.
  • #846
  • Sep 20, 2010 5:41pm Sep 20, 2010 5:41pm
Quoting Oshawa
Hi, Amy

What charting package do you use to draw those pivot and target lines? Or is it hand-drawn by manual calculation?

Thanks

Hi Oshawa

All the charts are drawn using Fibonacci trader.
  • #847
  • Sep 20, 2010 6:56pm Sep 20, 2010 6:56pm
Quoting amyc
My short orders got triggered at 9490, if the next 4hr bar closes below 9468 then I will be holding down into 9280. If not then I will expect to be stopped out. Stops 9505.
Amy, mind posting a chart for this? I am amazing by your accuracy here.
Dr. C
  • #848
  • Sep 20, 2010 8:16pm Sep 20, 2010 8:16pm
Quoting cvcamper
Amy, mind posting a chart for this? I am amazing by your accuracy here.
160 pip range bar chart. As soon as price was above 9284 last week I knew there wasn't going to be a top until it moved into the next 160 pip bar top with a blue resistance.
There is a 90% chance that price will touch 9280 this week, that target combined with the 4hr close below 9468 means it should go down i think. But the move down so far is not far enough to rule out a double top at 9498 first.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 17 KB
  • #849
  • Sep 21, 2010 5:03am Sep 21, 2010 5:03am
Quoting amyc
160 pip range bar chart. As soon as price was above 9284 last week I knew there wasn't going to be a top until it moved into the next 160 pip bar top with a blue resistance.
There is a 90% chance that price will touch 9280 this week, that target combined with the 4hr close below 9468 means it should go down i think. But the move down so far is not far enough to rule out a double top at 9498 first.
Hi, Amy. How did you define probability of 90%? And how did you determine whether it should be 80 or 140 or 160 pips range bar? Thanks.
  • #850
  • Sep 22, 2010 12:38am Sep 22, 2010 12:38am
Hi Amy,
What;s next up for the AUD? Thanks.
  • #851
  • Oct 6, 2010 10:45pm Oct 6, 2010 10:45pm
Quoting bravester
Hi Amy,
What;s next up for the AUD? Thanks.
A spectacular correction from either 9850 or 9944. All my charts show the same, especially dow weekly, I would be very cautious on the longs next week. Dow could move as far as 10030 by the end of October.
  • #852
  • Oct 6, 2010 11:03pm Oct 6, 2010 11:03pm
Quoting amyc
A spectacular correction from either 9850 or 9944. All my charts show the same, especially dow weekly, I would be very cautious on the longs next week. Dow could move as far as 10030 by the end of October.
If this is going to be the top that was probably it just then at 9846. If not stops at 9865.
  • #853
  • Oct 6, 2010 11:07pm Oct 6, 2010 11:07pm
Quoting amyc
If this is going to be the top that was probably it just then at 9846. If not stops at 9865.
I concur.

I am looking for a weekly swing to around .945
Dr. C
  • #854
  • Oct 6, 2010 11:09pm Oct 6, 2010 11:09pm
Quoting cvcamper
I concur.

I am looking for a weekly swing to around .945
If it goes down it will go down hard, probably till around the 26/27th October. I don't have a number in mind just a timeframe. After that we may see a run for parity.
  • #855
  • Oct 7, 2010 6:06pm Oct 7, 2010 6:06pm
Tricky top to pick. EU and GU look like they have found a very tidy top and dx a very tidy bottom, but AU and the S&P look like they will move higher on Friday. The bounce off 1147 for the S&P was very bullish and should mean a friday close on or near the highs.
  • #856
  • Oct 8, 2010 7:20am Oct 8, 2010 7:20am
Quoting amyc
Tricky top to pick. EU and GU look like they have found a very tidy top and dx a very tidy bottom, but AU and the S&P look like they will move higher on Friday. The bounce off 1147 for the S&P was very bullish and should mean a friday close on or near the highs.
Hi, Amy. When you have some spare moments and are in the mood, would you mind explaining a bit more about your methodology, or point me to some other sources for reading? I've read your explanation posted in mid-May, but am yet to be able to do it based on that. Thanks.
  • #857
  • Oct 10, 2010 6:02pm Oct 10, 2010 6:02pm
Quoting Oshawa
Hi, Amy. When you have some spare moments and are in the mood, would you mind explaining a bit more about your methodology, or point me to some other sources for reading? I've read your explanation posted in mid-May, but am yet to be able to do it based on that. Thanks.
Other than writing the book myself I really can't help you, basically what I have done is taken a set of lines and developed a strategy on how price moves between them. The lines can be anything you choose, I chose fib levels but they can be ma's or whatever you know best. Then look for repeating patterns that you can trade with some statistical advantage.


This journal was never designed to be a teaching service or a signal service, it was done purely for selfish reasons to improve my own trading. That goal has been achieved and on that note I am going to close the journal.
  • #858
  • Oct 10, 2010 6:21pm Oct 10, 2010 6:21pm
Hi Amy, I hope you reconsider closing the journal. I for one value your analysis and hope it continues whether its here on another forum within FF
  • #859
  • Oct 11, 2010 12:17am Oct 11, 2010 12:17am
Amy

I am very disappointed to read of your decision - as a relative newcomer to forex, I have been learning a lot from following your posts. The facility here on Forex factory of being able to monitor successful traders strategies and trades is second to none and so many of us have learnt so much as a result. Someday I would hope to be able to help, in return, those newbies struggling to come to terms with this business. I respect your decision but you will genuinely be a big miss.
Best regards

Bill
  • #860
  • Oct 11, 2010 7:25pm Oct 11, 2010 7:25pm
Quoting amyc
That goal has been achieved and on that note I am going to close the journal.
hey amy..... kinda keep to myself when it comes to comments but will venture out here......

//---

truely happy to hear your goal was achieved, it has been interesting and enjoyable reading.......

wish ya the best............h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
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