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Support/Resistance trading questions

  • #21
  • Oct 8, 2010 7:20pm Oct 8, 2010 7:20pm
  •  Czech
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: You Don't Know What You Don't Know | 111 Posts
Crucial, let me preface this by saying we all have our own reasons for posting. My reason is so that people like you can come around and tell me why I'm an idiot. And if you can prove it then I actually got something worthwhile from all this. So don't take me the wrong way

I absolutely agree that just because someone did research does not automatically make something a strong argument. (though i will say ANY study at least makes an attempt to prove something beyond what we can only assume is conjecture (which is not to say that I don't think you're profitable)) But yes, results can be interpreted differently and manipulated. You have to draw your own conclusions based on how any study was performed, what data was used, etc. I intentionally left a map of where the study could be found so that people could form their own opinion on it. I'm not trying to say that trading pure TA on a short time frame is impossible, and your success may be a tribute to that, but I am saying that numbers speak louder than words.

I apologize if i came off as saying that i was indisputably correct in my assertions.

I'm not aware of any worthwhile studies in particular that say "lower TF have higher statistical advantage over bigger TF" but I would love to read some and figure out WHY they came up with that result and learn from it. Please feel free to link to some.

There are thousands of people on these boards with tons of different opinions. I'd rather form MY opinions based on empirical data, taken for what it's worth, rather than the small subset of market data and forum posters that i (or most) have access to. It's easy for some one to say I'm an idiot but it's hard (for me) to take it seriously when its backed up with "in MY personal opinion".




Quoting slack
This is 100% BS. You realize that every single tick/order in the market is a result of someone, somewhere voluntarily pressing the Buy or Sell button? By definition, this means every pip movement has a meaning/intent and can be analyzed either individually or in aggregate.
You realize that this has nothing to do with what we're talking about. (I'm sure you also realize that price can tick when liquidity is pulled). Also, the definition of WHAT exactly? You could analyze the corn in my crap but that doesn't mean it will tell you when I'm shitting next (or maybe it does??).
Quote
I cannot figure out how to trade off a tick chart, but I'm not going to say it's full of "noise" due to my lack of skill.
You've continued to miss the point. If you're gonna take a stab at me at least pay attention and try to make it relevant.
  • #22
  • Oct 8, 2010 8:35pm Oct 8, 2010 8:35pm
Czech,

I laugh at the funny side of things and not at people. If you've read most of my post there are usually laughter within the post. It's hard to communicate effectively with the right context of emotions in writing, even with the help of emoticons (things can be perceived differently).

I'm not here to bust nor prove anyone of being an idiot, because everyone is an idiot (including me) to a certain degree.

Basically, I disagreed with what you posted... nothing more, nothing less... just an opposing opinion. It has nothing to do with anyone's level of intelligence... I laugh at the funny side of things (the crazy dynamics of life) and not at people.

Humor on the other hand can be also be mis-interpreted, whilst other may find it funny, others may be offended. So please take my sense of humor lightheartedly.
  • #23
  • Oct 8, 2010 9:40pm Oct 8, 2010 9:40pm
Quoting Czech
You realize that this has nothing to do with what we're talking about. (I'm sure you also realize that price can tick when liquidity is pulled). Also, the definition of WHAT exactly? You could analyze the corn in my crap but that doesn't mean it will tell you when I'm shitting next (or maybe it does??).
You are the one that used the word "noise." I'm not sure if that came from Daniel, Anna or ? But, whenever words like that (overbought/oversold, too), it's a telltale sign of cluelessness.

Without identifying and segrating your data studies within the four market phases; all of which require different techniques/strategies, all research is just pissing in the wind.

BTW, analyzing ones crap (human or animal) can tell you a great deal. People have been doing it for thousands of years.
  • #24
  • Edited 9:05am Oct 10, 2010 8:33am | Edited 9:05am
  •  Czech
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: You Don't Know What You Don't Know | 111 Posts
Quoting Slack
You are the one that used the word "noise." I'm not sure if that came from Daniel, Anna or ? But, whenever words like that (overbought/oversold, too), it's a telltale sign of cluelessness.

Without identifying and segregating your data studies within the four market phases; all of which require different techniques/strategies, all research is just pissing in the wind.

BTW, analyzing ones crap (human or animal) can tell you a great deal. People have been doing it for thousands of years.
Slack, sadly, this has turned into an argument of who is more clueless. I say the short time-frame is noisy for reasons i already spelled out: thousands of participants all doing their own thing, many of which have the ability to move the market. (please note that noisy does NOT equal random) A large time frame is the aggregate of all these events; no, one participant will make a noticeable impact. Ultimately the larger time frames are controlled by slower moving macroeconomic factors.

Maybe short time frames are not noisy for you, you're either psychic or getting inside information from every major market participant. Either way its irrelevant to everyone else.


BTW I agree that analyzing my crap will tell you a great deal about what i ate in the past. Still it has no bearing on my intentions in the future. To continue the metaphor, If you'd like to study MY crap in particular, you're going to have to take your best guess from the septic tank because i crap anonymously. (in retrospect i wish i started with a nicer comparison)

edit: I'm definitely interested to see why short time frames are not noisy for you and/or your deflection.
  • #25
  • Oct 10, 2010 11:57am Oct 10, 2010 11:57am
Quoting Czech
I'm definitely interested to see why short time frames are not noisy
Look at this Daily chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example A.png Size: 18 KB


Can you see how it is not noisy and it is a lovely movement?

Now, compare this chart (example A) to this 1 Minute chart (example B)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example B.png Size: 25 KB


Can you see how noisy chart B compared to chart A?

OK Czech, did you notice how I removed (edited) the price and time from chart A and B? (go and look again)

Czech, I lied...
Chart A is NOT a Daily chart.
Chart B is NOT a 1 minute chart.




Here are the Un-edited charts... No BS.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Un-edited 1minute.png Size: 105 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Un-edited weekly.png Size: 112 KB


If you remove price and time, the graph is 98% identical. When you add price and time, people will see things differently according to their subjective beliefs and bias.

Someone with my experience can spot a 1 minute chart even without time and price. That's because I know that a 1M chart has around 5-15% of its candlestick bar not having any wicks during New York and London Session. Whilst on Asian session, 1M candlestick bars can produce up to 40% having no wicks.

Knowing such detailed things come from experience... heck, I dream of graphs and candlesticks in my sleep
  • #26
  • Edited 1:23pm Oct 10, 2010 1:05pm | Edited 1:23pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
That's because I know that a 1M chart has around 5-15% of its candlestick bar not having any wicks during New York and London Session. Whilst on Asian session, 1M candlestick bars can produce up to 40% having no wicks.
Nice stats, thanks. It's rare to get something that concrete and useful in chart drawing.
Sounds like wicks'd be more around news, or try to balance later. I'm wondering how you've used the facts in the past.
  • #27
  • Edited 7:13pm Oct 10, 2010 6:50pm | Edited 7:13pm
  •  Czech
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: You Don't Know What You Don't Know | 111 Posts
Let me try to explain with an example

Usually for a daily chart to move X% requires 4 hours (or whatever) of shared sentiment (or otherwise a very large amount of money). For a tick chart to move that same percentage may require only one rouge trader to place a large order(a relativity small amount of money). This trader i am calling noise. He was trading as a hedge for some other transaction, paying no attention to TA. To make that same move on a large time frame requires many traders to trade in sync for an extended period of time. This is hardly my subjective belief. Since the larger time frame is an aggregation of all these small orders it's less likely one (or a small group of) trader(s) will have a significant impact on the market (or that they would all happen to be making this seemingly random trade at the same time). This is why I say a small time frame is noisy. I've never said/thought that different time frames necessarily looked different (i certainly can't tell in most cases), but one cherry picked chart used as an example doesn't really prove anything anyway.
  • #28
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:04am Oct 11, 2010 2:04am
Quoting Czech
Usually for a daily chart to move X% requires 4 hours (or whatever) of shared sentiment (or otherwise a very large amount of money). For a tick chart to move that same percentage may require only one rouge trader to place a large order(a relativity small amount of money). This trader i am calling noise. He was trading as a hedge for some other transaction, paying no attention to TA....
"Wood floats, metal sinks. We should make our boats out of wood." Anonymous (year 1)
Theory sounds good, but reality is different. So does your argument, it sounds good, but reality is different. I'm not saying that your arguments are wrong. I'm saying that your argument goes far deeper than you think.

I don't have the energy to counter-argue your point of view. I will happily exit this argument to seem not to have enough evidence for my arguments (though I voluntarily refuse to put any more energy into this argument). I am happy to lose this bout to everyone's eye All I wish is that your point of view make you load of pips and money I'll be happy with that.

This topic is derailing, so I reiterate that I agree with Slack, Turveyd and Billfet's stance on the issue.

Quoting Czech
... but one cherry picked chart used as an example doesn't really prove anything anyway.http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...ell_anyone.gif
Cherry Picked!?.... a weekly chart from 1995 right through 2010... which chart did you want me to pick?

Quoting ha-pattern
Nice stats, thanks. It's rare to get something that concrete and useful in chart drawing.
Sounds like wicks'd be more around news, or try to balance later. I'm wondering how you've used the facts in the past.
I don't deal with wicks so I disregard them.
  • #29
  • Edited 5:32pm Oct 11, 2010 8:33am | Edited 5:32pm
Quoting Czech
Let me try to explain with an example

only one rogue trader to place a large order He was trading as a hedge for some other transaction, paying no attention to TA.
Nobody pays attention to TA, TA pays attention to the chart. There's an infinite number of TA styles. Perhaps and only on occasion, a bunch of them may go to about the same place on occasion or some *?%$ hot-shot analyst is listened to.
Far more important is having some idea of the underlying flow of the chart, which all TA (and FA) styles aspire to (only not order flow, since it is the underlying flow, so it'd be how well a method projects directly from the flow).

How do you know it's one rogue trader? The order flow would have to be (almost) completely transparent and continuously studied. A one-order, one-minute bar could mean lots of things, from a huge, broken-up order on its last leg, to only the amount of volume a trader is willing to show.
I say going from only a chart, which is information-poor, to the order flow and make a conclusion such as you did is backwards. Placing order flow language on the chart without knowing (almost) exactly about that order seems as good as doing TA more precisely.

Thirdly, a smaller-TF chart means a more exact place the entire chart turns. Yes, it may usually take more than one 1' candle to give impetus to pivot the chart; only, no cookie-cutter time frame will ever exactly reflect how this is done.

Then again, finding the/a right turning point and why in the 1'TF is extremely tough; this is all I do, and I've yet to make it. Thus, I can see why your argument would be persuasive.
The ideal would be to do the higher and lower TF's, only, given my own experience with the 1', it's unlikely most would advance beyond crude renditions heavily weighted toward averages or single reasons. So, averaging from the get-go with using only higher TF's makes sense.

In conclusion, I agree your overall point is sound. And, time spent elsewhere, such as on how one trades, makes more sense.
Also, I just looked at an earlier post of yours, which says "I, myself, trade a short time frame. I didn't say it couldn't be done I said different time frames present different opportunities."
So, I guess you were thinking through the different opportunity a higher TF offers. As a counternote, I'm offering a 1' (and, perhaps, smaller) TF'er's POV.
  • #30
  • Oct 11, 2010 4:26pm Oct 11, 2010 4:26pm
wow.
Join the forums and learn how to lose.

I remember now, why I stopped reading these forums.

TIME FRAMES. the tick chart makes the M1 the M1 makes the M5 etc.

Time frames are irrelevant. No wonder why MT5 has more Timeframes. lol

" to keep everyone bickering, Losing, and clueless"
  • #31
  • Edited 5:14pm Oct 11, 2010 5:03pm | Edited 5:14pm
  •  Czech
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: You Don't Know What You Don't Know | 111 Posts
Quoting Ipndasno
wow.
Join the forums and learn how to lose.

I remember now, why I stopped reading these forums.

TIME FRAMES. the tick chart makes the M1 the M1 makes the M5 etc.

Time frames are irrelevant. No wonder why MT5 has more Timeframes. lol

" to keep everyone bickering, Losing, and clueless"
This is truly groundbreaking. Re-read the thread a few times and you may eventually grasp the concepts we're discussing. If i remember correctly you were in the process of turning 1k into 1 billion (in four years) so I'm not really sure why you're reading the forums again either, you ought to be quite busy with that.

ha-pattern thanks for posting I'll talk to you tomorrow unless i find some time tonight.

crucial, i wish it weren't so. I didn't come on here to win an argument. I came here to better my understanding! If you ever muster up the energy feel free to pm me if not post here. It does take an annoying amount of energy to try to explain things over the internet in a way that can be easily understood by many, so i understand where you're coming from.
  • #32
  • Oct 11, 2010 8:12pm Oct 11, 2010 8:12pm
Quoting beehivesjoe
Hey I have a few questions. I've been reading several different things about support and resistance....
Think of support and resistance in these terms Supply and Demand

1. Supply = selling or unloading longs or shorting if you well hence more of the currency is at disposed at particular levels. This is considered resistance

2. Demand = buying pressure, alot of buying going on at this level and price gradually rises

these areas become common, they are used and abused. But number one lesson you need to learn

Supply and demand levels are MEANT TO BE BROKEN!!! BE VARY WARY ON TRADING THIS IF YOU DONT HAVE A GOOD EYE ON THE MARKET AND WHERE TO PLACE YOUR CHART.

Respect the time frame you are on if you are trading these levels.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #33
  • Last Post: Sep 14, 2013 2:26am Sep 14, 2013 2:26am
It is a quite "old" post, but the discussion (a little bit hot) give me much inspiration.

the weekly chart shown in one post and the 1 minute chart shown in the same post shows that the price action "purely technical" has no difference in different time frames.

HOWEVER, in the time frame as 1H or H4 or daily, the price action has another meaning that the PA in lower TFs could not give. The PA in these timeframes (1H H4 daily) agrees with the fundamentals. for me ,this is the inspiration this post shows to me.

1min chart is full of noise or not, I don't know. I know it follows some rules of nature that I could not discover and in which I am not interest to discover. But the charts of 1H H4 daily and even weekly, as they agree with the reactions of the fundamentals from the most important portion of human beings who trade, the charts in these TFs will give more easy-reading and more reliable prediction capability, which is an edge for profitable trading.

Thanks for some content from this post!

shunfeng
The candle pattern is the signal, the inevitability behind it is the key.
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