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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #19,601
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:32am Oct 11, 2010 2:32am
Ok - here we are.
Now we have fullfilled out obligatory part of PA and are open for what ever is going to show up now ...

Stay nimble.
Market is not clear if it should go for QEII or with "to strong EURO" idea ...
  • #19,602
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:38am Oct 11, 2010 2:38am
Hmmmh - just foir info:

0730 GMT [Dow Jones] Aggregate net USD positions fell to nearly an all-time low, according to Credit Agricole's summary of the latest speculative data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. However, positioning in the EUR is well below its all-time highs. This, the bank says, supports "the view that rather than speculative investors, it is central banks that are pushing the EUR higher." ([email protected])
Contact us in London. +44-20-7842-9464 [email protected]

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible COw Dung included ;-)
  • #19,603
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:18am Oct 11, 2010 3:18am
I was training hard last week with friends who went yesterday to competition, what is in package of QEII what are their plans. all the best
  • #19,604
  • Oct 11, 2010 4:17am Oct 11, 2010 4:17am
Hi again,

closing my trading for today.
Market is much to slow and directionless.
Have done some small dancing steps so far.
Started out with scouts in all three pairs, but took USDJPY and Cable out of the battle. Focussed only on EURUSD. The dance was realtively easy, because EURUSD and EURJPY have been pretty nice in sync, and from my observations EURJPY was the leading pair. So I used a forth pair with my three kingdoms. Still learning to ge a feeling for the money flow ...

I'm happy with my profits and will enjoy the afternoon with my littel son and hopefully some sunshine out there in the garden ...

CU,
MaMood
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2010-10-11_London.pdf   21 KB | 811 downloads
  • #19,605
  • Oct 11, 2010 4:59am Oct 11, 2010 4:59am
Quoting MaMood
Hi again,

closing my trading for today.
Market is much to slow and directionless.
Have done some small dancing steps so far.
Started out with scouts in all three pairs, but took USDJPY and Cable out of the battle. Focussed only on EURUSD. The dance was realtively easy, because EURUSD and EURJPY have been pretty nice in sync, and from my observations EURJPY was the leading pair. So I used a forth pair with my three kingdoms. Still learning to ge a feeling for the money flow ...

I'm happy with my profits and will enjoy the afternoon with my littel...
Wow. Thank you for sharing MaMood.
-Question : How do you manage those big-positions? For example that with 9,13lot ? It is a fast scalp or do you manage some extra bigger rescue positions if this failed?
-I can open my Oanda account on twoo computers. It worked when i have orders at one, they appear also at the second comp. If it work at more computers and ip-adress, we can establish one practising account and open it and watch senior trading...
Regards
  • #19,606
  • Edited 7:35am Oct 11, 2010 7:01am | Edited 7:35am
Quoting Fana
Wow. Thank you for sharing MaMood.
-Question : How do you manage those big-positions? For example that with 9,13lot ? It is a fast scalp or do you manage some extra bigger rescue positions if this failed?
-I can open my Oanda account on twoo computers. It worked when i have orders at one, they appear also at the second comp. If it work at more computers and ip-adress, we can establish one practising account and open it and watch senior trading...
Regards
Hi Fana!

Have not read anything from you for a long time. Hope things are going well for you!

Especially the postion you are asking for was part of a rescue sequence:
It started with the short scout (0.1) from yesterday. I have thrown in my first rescue troops at 08:20 with 0.98 lots. The recue was planned for 5.5 pips (You can see it, when checking my TP. You know I'm timing my rescues for very few pips of retracement only). As this attempt was not successful, I send in the next level at 08:22 with 3.62 lots (again for 5.5 pips TP). And 3 minutes later I send in my next level (the positions, you were asking for) with TP 13977.
As you can see, the strongest rescue level was taken out by reaching it's TP at 08:37. The next level was reached at 08:38. Because my rescue was done, I took out the smallest recue level and the scout with small losses as well.

After that I was not clear about the direction to trade. As a result I sent in a EURUSD long and a short scout at the same time at 08:38. When there is no action in the market and I do not expect any major moves, I choose such a MO from time to time. It serves so the main purpose of the scout, to focus on the market and to gather a feeling what is going on or might come up soon.

However - at 09:22 I deployed an additional short (rescue-)scout. Took both out with small profits at 09:39. Than there was some momentum to the north. I send in long recue (0.75 lots) at 09:39 and took it out at 09:42 (small profit), when the momentum was turning to the south again.

After that I started a new long approach. I added troops at 10:35 and took it out at 10:42 (small profit). The momentum was looking promising and I sent in attack troops again at 10:42 (1.84 lots). But timing was bad. As a result I deployed 6.05 lots at 10:53. Rescue was succesful. Have taken last level out (151 profit). Scout and attack troops still in. Then there was a good appotunity for a new rescue. Sent in 8.1 lots at 11:02. Rescue was successful at 11:03 (203 Profit).

Well - I guess it is not easy to follow, when it is written in hindsight and you have no chance to see the candles moving in sync with my steps.
It may help to know, that I follow every little move, when market is calm/dead like today. But that enforces me to be very very nimble, because Im trading large positions with in only a few pips move. Means I have to flip or kill very very soon, when something going against me.
Hope it gives you a lttle idea, what I have done this morning.

CU,
MaMood

Edit: I should add, that this morning I was using the M15 chart for "long term" trend.
M5 for "mid term" trend and M1 respectively tick charts for my timing and gathering information about momentum and dynamic. So all in all my dancing is somethiong close to scalping, but based on fti's principles.
  • #19,607
  • Oct 11, 2010 8:21am Oct 11, 2010 8:21am
Hey guys I need your advice. Today my lectures started after like 5 months and we have so so so so boring profs I couldn be there with such a nice weather and I cant listen to topics I really dont care. I am at a point of my life where I do like 3-4 hrs sports a day, improving every day, but I dont want to go to competitions, as there u get injured and ur ass kicked in taekwondo. But as u know if no results there is no money. So now I am without money, I dont like my education, fx account is doing bad, as I have sql and sports, so I dont have tht much time and freshness for it, so I'm 20 yrs old and I really dnt know how my future is gonna be :S:S:S:S:S:grin: I thinjk the best would be If I could go to mars to a totaly different life, where ppl would do just what they love to do and contribute and help population. all the best
  • #19,608
  • Oct 11, 2010 8:55am Oct 11, 2010 8:55am
Hi Friends,

reading a compilation of this thread, that was done by Maheswara some time ago. Thx again for doing all that work!!! (BTW, you can find it easily, when checking the attachments of this thread unsing the little icon of a paper clip above).

However - just want to refresh the following snippet of fti's teachings:

[...]
For dealers, its a different game, because when markets are going up in a BEAR market, customers keep making them short,
their book keeps getting bigger short, but their average cost of being short keeps going up.
all they have to do is to wait for the trend to enforce and
when the market returns to the point where the buying started ,
he would make nearly the amount of money that made him short in the first place.

For this to happen, he has to have a book big enough to accommodate the customer base.
AND as the market swings back towards the start point, he has to ascertain that his book of shorts, be kept constant.
This is because on the way down the customers will be making him long.
So by constantly covering back to back on the way down he maintains his book short.
So for the dealer, as long as he maintains his poise in the direction of the markets major trend,
he will always make "scalp money", guaranteed.

His modus operandi, is to "duck and move quickly"
so as to have a better average on the up swing towards stops to maximise his shorting near the top of the swing.
This scenerio is most effective if there are stop near levels where he has a large order to sell,
where he can help the customer sell OB and "kill the sitting duck stops" in the same blow.
Another senerio is where by the heavy selling is CB levels or specific sell zones,
where many teir 1 are ready to pounch on the buyers.
You must understand that only tier 1 and some big tier 2 will have this advantage.

This is the reason, why you have rubber band snap backs in the direction of trend directions,
and slow puffy moves counter trend.
Am I making any sense to anyone here?

So we use daily trend as the direction to build book size and short charts to make market for retraces.
Do discuss this on this trread, no questions are silly, just discuss until it becomes clear.
Don't understand !, argue until you understand.
Fight if you must, I will not complain.

YOU MUST GET THE CONCEPT OF MARKET STRUCTURE RIGHT TO UNDERSTAND THE CHARTS.

[...]

  • #19,609
  • Oct 11, 2010 9:05am Oct 11, 2010 9:05am
Hi all

Some spammer with ip address 115.52.246.253 has hijacked my gmail account and is spamming everyone who I have ever mailed. Please do not open these emails, but delete them immediately if you have received one today. They are not from me!

If anyone knows how I can stop them from doing this in the future please pm me on ff.

Sorry for any inconvenience.

kind regards
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #19,610
  • Oct 11, 2010 9:09am Oct 11, 2010 9:09am
Quoting DutchAngel
Hi all

Some spammer with ip address 115.52.246.253 has hijacked my gmail account and is spamming everyone who I have ever mailed. Please do not open these emails, but delete them immediately if you have received one today. They are not from me!

If anyone knows how I can stop them from doing this in the future please pm me on ff.

Sorry for any inconvenience.

kind regards

Aaah ok - thanx for explanation and warning!
Have no idea what can be done ...
Good luck in your fight against these guys.

CU,
Niels
  • #19,611
  • Oct 11, 2010 9:38am Oct 11, 2010 9:38am
Quoting DutchAngel
Hi all

Some spammer with ip address 115.52.246.253 has hijacked my gmail account and is spamming everyone who I have ever mailed. Please do not open these emails, but delete them immediately if you have received one today. They are not from me!

If anyone knows how I can stop them from doing this in the future please pm me on ff.

Sorry for any inconvenience.

kind regards
Hi DutchAngel

I have no experience with gmail, but gmail should have the function "report spam" = administrator should then block the IP address.

Rgs
  • #19,612
  • Oct 11, 2010 9:49am Oct 11, 2010 9:49am
Attention - Battlestations.
May be that's the only action during NY session for today!
  • #19,613
  • Oct 11, 2010 10:12am Oct 11, 2010 10:12am
Quoting Gro
Hi DutchAngel

I have no experience with gmail, but gmail should have the function "report spam" = administrator should then block the IP address.

Rgs
Hi Gro

I think I have solved the problem. A secondary email of mine was hijacked first and everytime I changed my password in gmail, a notification was sent through to the secondary mail. The hacker then had immediate access again to my gmail account. I now have stopped notifications going through to the secondary email acc and have changed my password for the fifth time today.

This should be the end of it.

Again I apologise for any confusion or inconvenience.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #19,614
  • Oct 11, 2010 10:26am Oct 11, 2010 10:26am
Quoting DutchAngel
...
I think I have solved the problem. A secondary email of mine was hijacked first and everytime I changed my password in gmail, a notification was sent through to the secondary mail. The hacker then had immediate access again to my gmail account....
....
Had the same experience recently.
i changed my password too. hopefully that's the end of our ordeal.

Hope u & your family are doing well!
  • #19,615
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:27pm Oct 11, 2010 2:27pm
Quoting Fana
Hello Lilpip. Interesting to watch Gold climbing...
What about the price in shops? Forex gold is 1lot....100troy onces...(1 troy o is 31.1035 g) of gold. Now $135400 ? is one lot as i think... Good to be a goldfinder now...

3.110 Kg is $135400
1Kg is $43536

1g is approximatelly $43 now.

And in Brno, they are buying it for $25...in shops... now i know why
just seen your post.
as far as your local shops, dont forget your silver its priced at a better value.
If I remember right I believe it cost about $18.00 an ounce just to cover the cost of mining it, practically dirt cheap.

whatchin how this 3882 area responds at the moment.
  • #19,616
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:45pm Oct 11, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting DutchAngel
Hi Gro

I think I have solved the problem. A secondary email of mine was hijacked first and everytime I changed my password in gmail, a notification was sent through to the secondary mail. The hacker then had immediate access again to my gmail account. I now have stopped notifications going through to the secondary email acc and have changed my password for the fifth time today.

This should be the end of it.

Again I apologise for any confusion or inconvenience.
... the problem is solved
  • #19,617
  • Oct 11, 2010 4:49pm Oct 11, 2010 4:49pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends,

reading a compilation of this thread, that was done by Maheswara some time ago. Thx again for doing all that work!!! (BTW, you can find it easily, when checking the attachments of this thread unsing the little icon of a paper clip above).

However - just want to refresh the following snippet of fti's teachings:
[indent][...]
For dealers, its a different game, because when markets are going up in a BEAR market, customers keep making them short,
[size=3][FONT=Times...
corresponding to Mr. Shakespeare, harmony...

Music to hear, why heart is thou music sadly?
Sweets with sweets war not, joy delights in joy:
Why love ist thou that which thou receiv'st not gladly,
Or else receive ist with pleasure thine annoy?
If the true concord of well-tuned sounds,
By unions married, do offend thine ear,
They do but sweetly chide thee, who confounds
In singleness the parts that thou shouldst bear.
Mark how one string, sweet husband to another,
Strikes each in each by mutual ordering;
Resembling sire and child and happy mother,
Who, all in one, one pleasing note do sing:
Whose speechless song being many, seeming one,
Sings this to thee: 'Thou single wilt prove none.
  • #19,618
  • Oct 12, 2010 1:40am Oct 12, 2010 1:40am
Good Morning Friends of the Dance!

Just for info:

0615 GMT [Dow Jones] Large EUR/USD sell stops stand at 1.3790, says Singapore dealer; adds pair tumbled to low of 1.3819 from 1.3862 in past half hour as EUR/JPY fell to 113.12 from 113.60 on strong euro sales by hedge funds, commodity trading advisers. EUR/USD last 1.3837. ([email protected])

Asian regional markets mostly lower;
Nikkei down 2.1%,
S&P/ASX off 1.7%,
Shanghai Composite +0.9%,
HSI down 0.5%,
STI 0.2% lower,
KLCI down 0.1%,
NZX-50 0.1% down,
Kospi down 1.2%,
Taiex down 1.1%,
SET off 0.3%,
Sensex down 0.9%.

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included!
  • #19,619
  • Oct 12, 2010 2:26am Oct 12, 2010 2:26am
On the wires at the moment:

ECB Noyer: Upside Risk To Inflation very limited
  • #19,620
  • Oct 12, 2010 2:44am Oct 12, 2010 2:44am
Today is the anniversary of when Columbus discovered America (1492)
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