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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #19,581
  • Edited 11:17am Oct 8, 2010 10:33am | Edited 11:17am
Hi Friends,

have you ever heard a Squawk box session from this year flash crash. Unbelievable. ...

Inserted Video
  • #19,582
  • Oct 8, 2010 11:12am Oct 8, 2010 11:12am
Quoting Setebos
Spikes massacre across the board. QE2 is now a notch away from being guaranteed.

Hi together,

that was a real heavy action.
Was watching a webinar at that time about how to trade the NFP.
Was very interesting and that guy made it really good.
He was listenintg to an real time news feed, that I was able to hear too.

So from my observations it was not a large scale stop sweeping, but real market action:
First disappointing US figs -> EURUSD jumped up heavily

a few minutes later Member of the ECB was talking on the wires, that the EUR is much to strong at the moment -> EURUSD was running down.

After that the market was taking a breath and did some thinking about what had happened in the last 45 minutes -> Market went back to the prices from before the US Figs ...

After all a good understandable market action ;-)

BTW: Does anyone know about a good source for a FX audio news feed?
Need only a feed, where all the headlines are read in real time ...

Cu,
MaMood
  • #19,583
  • Edited 4:04pm Oct 8, 2010 11:35am | Edited 4:04pm
Quoting MaMood
Hey - good morning Friends of the Dance!

What's going on here?
no one posting?
No one trading?

What a lazy community ....
Was hoping for a more vital trading community here.

What's about reactivating the TAF Lounge, so that we can chat about our TAF based trading without having a guilty conscience because of "hijacking" fti's thread with topics he may not like very much ...

Is that an issue for you?
Should we do so?
Or is there just no interest in discussing our daily trading/dancing?

Regards,
MaMood
Hi MaMood and all

"I was born here and I here also die".
I'm still discovering new and new in the FTI learning.I passed a few detours and mutations are dangerous for me.
When FTI writes, so writes 30 years experience, and a lot of treasure hidden between the words.Now the last treasure, which showed the FTI is the relationship between the kingdoms, beautiful ....
I sometimes go to visit TAF lounge

PS How's the competition? (how do you it in competition?)


Rgs
  • #19,584
  • Oct 8, 2010 12:05pm Oct 8, 2010 12:05pm
Hi Niels,

it was probably these guys that you have been listening to:

http://ransquawk.com/

Hope this helps.

Rgrds
S

Quoting MaMood
Hi together,

that was a real heavy action.
Was watching a webinar at that time about how to trade the NFP.
Was very interesting and that guy made it really good.
He was listenintg to an real time news feed, that I was able to hear too.

So from my observations it was not a large scale stop sweeping, but real market action:
First disappointing US figs -> EURUSD jumped up heavily

a few minutes later Member of the ECB was talking on the wires, that the EUR is much to strong at the moment -> EURUSD was running down.

After that the market was...
  • #19,585
  • Oct 9, 2010 7:06am Oct 9, 2010 7:06am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends,

have you ever heard a Squawk box session from this year flash crash. Unbelievable. ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mC4t...filepage#at=23

Hi MM,
I don't ever recall seeing price move faster than on that day, a very intense day.

All quiet on the weekend meetings' front thus far, maybe its time to offer up some USD support..


good trading and rgds,
  • #19,586
  • Oct 9, 2010 8:38am Oct 9, 2010 8:38am
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6980CI20101009

Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said on Friday that finance leaders from the Group of Seven nations agreed at a meeting that excessive and disorderly foreign exchange movements are undesirable.

Noda added that he believed he had gained the understanding of his G7 counterparts regarding Japan's stance on currency market intervention during an informal dinner meeting.

"We did not discuss anything about the future, but I believe we've gained understanding on our basic stance," Noda told reporters after the meeting

Investors remain on full alert for further intervention by Japan as an unexpected drop in U.S. payrolls data pushed the dollar to a fresh 15-year low against the yen on Friday.

Noda said his explanation of Japan's currency intervention did not draw any response from other G7 members, but added "various views" were exchanged on currency rate matters.

EU surged on the payroll data but then lost all of its gains quickly and failed to make a higher high. Which could be explained by profit taking ahead of G7 or maybe a pause is developing in this massive rally.

Dollar shorts reached 30.5 billion from 22.5 billion. Highest since 2008.
  • #19,587
  • Oct 10, 2010 9:53am Oct 10, 2010 9:53am
Did anyone see Wall Street: Money never sleeps?
Folks at Goldman Sachs are surely not happy with it
  • #19,588
  • Oct 10, 2010 12:47pm Oct 10, 2010 12:47pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends,

have you ever heard a Squawk box session from this year flash crash. Unbelievable. ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mC4t...filepage#at=23
Sounds like a horse racing commentator and auctioneer put together.
  • #19,589
  • Oct 10, 2010 1:57pm Oct 10, 2010 1:57pm
Quoting Setebos
Hi Niels,

it was probably these guys that you have been listening to:

http://ransquawk.com/

Hope this helps.

Rgrds
S
Hi Stan,

thanx for the info.
Will check them out.

Hope your trading is going well!

Regarding Money never sleeps: I'm very keen to watch it as soon as it has started here in our cinemas. Loved the first part very very much. Seems I have to patient some more days, till it is tarting here in germany ...

CU,
Niels
  • #19,590
  • Oct 10, 2010 2:03pm Oct 10, 2010 2:03pm
Quoting Zoran
Sounds like a horse racing commentator and auctioneer put together.

Hi Zoran,

See your nick from time to time in the bottom line of this thread.
Hope you are doing well.

I have never heard the "noise" from such a squawk box. But now I can understand what the good old pit traders are missing, when they have to move on to on electronic trading platform. This kind of "surrounding" sound givey you a real good impression about the markete sentiment, dynamic or call it panic level.

This discovery was very inspiring for me.
Have to ponder about, how I can take an advantage out of such a service ....

All the best!

Niels
  • #19,591
  • Oct 10, 2010 2:14pm Oct 10, 2010 2:14pm
Quoting Gro
Hi MaMood and all

"I was born here and I here also die".
I'm still discovering new and new in the FTI learning.I passed a few detours and mutations are dangerous for me.
When FTI writes, so writes 30 years experience, and a lot of treasure hidden between the words.Now the last treasure, which showed the FTI is the relationship between the kingdoms, beautiful ....
I sometimes go to visit TAF lounge

PS How's the competition? (how do you it in competition?)


Rgs
Hi Gro,

I know very well, what you are talking about.
This thread finally was the reason for registering with FF and it has opened my eyes for the details behind the curtain, when trading FX.

What I'm missing here is the possibility to discuss the market action with some fellow traders, that are trading following the same rules. It was very inspiring for me to follow a live webinar with video and sound connection last friday. Things can be explained so much easier, when watching the same charts and talking (not writing) to each other. Guess fti was looking for something similiar, when ha brought up that currensee.com topic some weeks ago.

However - will do some research in this direction. My main goal is to find a platform to build up a traders community on, that is beyond keyboard based chatting and posting ...

I'll keep you informed, what ever my findings wiil be.
May be time is not ready for doing such a step.

And it should be by no means a replacment for this threat or a kind of headhunting for senior TAF members. It should be a more convienient, more comprehensive, more intuitive addon to this thread. More interactive. Easier for giving explanantions and much less time consuming, as it is, when typing posting here ....

CU,
MaMood
  • #19,592
  • Oct 10, 2010 3:27pm Oct 10, 2010 3:27pm
Wow - that is an opening gap:

EURUSD 13992/85
from 13930 friday night.

USDJPY 8203/8190


Some figures out of the recent COT report:

http://www.pivotfarm.com/blog/wp-con.../2010/10/1.jpg
http://www.pivotfarm.com/blog/wp-con.../2010/10/2.jpg

http://www.pivotfarm.com/blog/wp-con.../2010/10/3.jpg

http://www.pivotfarm.com/blog/wp-con.../2010/10/4.jpg


Here is the full article:

http://www.pivotfarm.com/blog/2010/1...ng-analysis-4/
  • #19,593
  • Edited 9:22pm Oct 10, 2010 7:44pm | Edited 9:22pm
Everywhere I turn you hear talk of buying gold, gold , gold.

I dont get it, myself I think silver is the better deal and thats what ive been mostly buying.
Even the performance has been better.

whatever the case I hope all have been tucking some gold or silver away.

http://jsmineset.com/2010/10/09/the-...pital-markets/

note taken e/u 3980 -90 area.

shes back so lets see what she wants to do around that 80 area.

scout in @ 78
  • #19,594
  • Edited Oct 11, 2010 1:01am Oct 10, 2010 11:34pm | Edited Oct 11, 2010 1:01am
Quoting lilpip
Everywhere I turn you hear talk of buying gold, gold , gold.

I dont get it, myself I think silver is the better deal and thats what ive been mostly buying.
Even the performance has been better.

whatever the case I hope all have been tucking some gold or silver away.

http://jsmineset.com/2010/10/09/the-...pital-markets/

note taken e/u 3980 -90 area.

shes back so lets see what she wants to do around that 80 area.

scout in @ 78
Hello Lilpip. Interesting to watch Gold climbing...
What about the price in shops? Forex gold is 1lot....100troy onces...(1 troy o is 31.1035 g) of gold. Now $135400 ? is one lot as i think... Good to be a goldfinder now...

3.110 Kg is $135400
1Kg is $43536

1g is approximatelly $43 now.

And in Brno, they are buying it for $25...in shops... now i know why
  • #19,595
  • Oct 11, 2010 1:18am Oct 11, 2010 1:18am
Good morning friends of the Dance!

That will be most probably a very calm monday. Bank holidays in US, JP and CA. Will use the time to do some research about the Squawk box thingy. Will try it out ...

Wish you all a good start into this week!

CU,
MaMood
  • #19,596
  • Oct 11, 2010 1:30am Oct 11, 2010 1:30am
Some hints about recent sentiment:

Asian regional markets mostly up;
S&P/ASX +0.3%,
Shanghai Composite +1.9%,
HSI +1.2%,
STI +0.2%,
KLCI +0.3%,
NZX-50 flat,
Kospi off 0.4%,
Taiex down 0.8%,
SET +1.1%,
Sensex +0.4%.
Japan markets shut for holiday.
  • #19,597
  • Oct 11, 2010 1:48am Oct 11, 2010 1:48am
Have you seen this article?
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=260339

Interesting - some ECB memebers are thinking publically that the EUR is much to strong at the moment. Some other ECB memebers are thinking loud, that there should be some rate hikes in the EU ...
  • #19,598
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:01am Oct 11, 2010 2:01am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Gro,

I know very well, what you are talking about.
This thread finally was the reason for registering with FF and it has opened my eyes for the details behind the curtain, when trading FX.

What I'm missing here is the possibility to discuss the market action with...
Hi MaMood

I then like to join.My idea is a virtual trading room.No tips and trade ideas but "the more eyes see more" (I mean "every eye in another currency pair")

Rgs
  • #19,599
  • Edited 2:26am Oct 11, 2010 2:07am | Edited 2:26am
Quoting MaMood
Have you seen this article?
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=260339

Interesting - some ECB memebers are thinking publically that the EUR is much to strong at the moment. Some other ECB memebers are thinking loud, that there should be some rate hikes in the EU ...
Am surprised that they have taken this long ....now how long before they act?
Such a funny thing about strong currencies ....no country wants one (exporting countries that is )

Not sure any will act without the other's approval ...all those cb's will be in bed together by now...

Anyway, that should not be of any importance ...we just move with the flow ....but it is still interesting to watch the ebb and flow of the so called 'power brokers' ...
  • #19,600
  • Oct 11, 2010 2:19am Oct 11, 2010 2:19am
Seems EURUSD is running for a gap close first.
Means it may dip down to 13930x
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