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Old Dog Fib Trading - EURUSD

  • #261
  • Oct 9, 2010 8:00am Oct 9, 2010 8:00am
Quoting BarneyDog
Skyzer,

Agreed and why we are asking if OD came post some steps to his strategy.

OD, hope you can take a few minutes of your time and help us out, again.

Thanks in advance.

BD
BD, maybe I was little overexcited yesterday, after whole week watching

the screen, sorry. I was thinking and sleeping at the same time

What I think is this. Those lines are IMPORTANT to Identify your profit

taking or SL areas, which is already big deal. But trades must be

taking on some other events, rather than simple line crossing.

Or At least need to add something and have both events happened

like ADX crossing (just an example) + line crossing..

Lets think together on this. I'm sure there is something..

2 Problems I Identify when trading

1) Most of the times there is only 1-2 good setups withing 24 hours, all others

are just a noise and more likely will lead to loss

2) When you take your trade you never know if this is 10 pip trade or

100 pip move, no way to Identify that. How many times it goes up 10 pips

then down 20 pips, and then up 100 pips. So? Need decent Stop Loss

And Trailing capabilities (before entering trade) as well some kind of EA.

I have one, BUT, that EA doesn't have Magic Number as most of them.

Working very good though I add 5-digit capability, so you don't have

to worry about extra zeros with 5 digit brokers

Here it is.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 HIDDEN TP_TS_SL_EA_Fv_5d.mq4   5 KB | 437 downloads
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #262
  • Oct 9, 2010 8:49am Oct 9, 2010 8:49am
Quoting SkyzerFX
...Need decent Stop Loss
And Trailing capabilities (before entering trade) as well some kind of EA.
I have one, BUT, that EA doesn't have Magic Number as most of them.
Working very good though I add 5-digit capability, so you don't have
to worry about extra zeros with 5 digit brokers
Here it is.
Thx Skyzer.
This is very simplified version of SteveHopwood's fabulous "MPTM" EA.
But it works great for what you need it for.

Just a note: the TrailingStop and TrailingStep inputs are still expressed in "Point" units, not in true pips.
I have fixed that -- attached.
I also added a "slippage" input (was set to "5", which is 0.5 pips on 5D brokr).

Just so that everyone here can use it for what it's worth.
Will trail any open orders on the pair where you drop it.
Nothing fancy, that's all we need...

SQ
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 HIDDEN TP_TS_SL_EA_Fv_5d.mq4   4 KB | 447 downloads
  • #263
  • Oct 9, 2010 8:56am Oct 9, 2010 8:56am
I'm here at Future Shop Electronics Store...checking out the new 27 inch iMAC, really cool. So, I'll chime in on this....I sure hope there is no one that loses any cash....but with all the new traders going "oh wow"...regretably that looks like where it's heading.
Cheers
CanuckCT

Quoting Indrek
The other thread is a typical scam setup as already pointed out. Hope, it will be binned soon.
  • #264
  • Oct 9, 2010 9:39am Oct 9, 2010 9:39am
Quoting squalou

Just a note: the TrailingStop and TrailingStep inputs are still expressed in "Point" units, not in true pips.
I have fixed that -- attached.
I also added a "slippage" input (was set to "5", which is 0.5 pips on 5D brokr).

SQ

Thanks a lot SQ!
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  • #265
  • Oct 10, 2010 5:51am Oct 10, 2010 5:51am
Quoting BarneyDog
Skyzer,

Agreed and why we are asking if OD came post some steps to his strategy.

OD, hope you can take a few minutes of your time and help us out, again.

Thanks in advance.

BD



There is a very old story about an American who visited the ancient English university town of Oxford. He was particluarly taken with the fabulous lawns in the quads of the colleges - they are as perfect as snooker tables.

The American said, "Geez, I godda get me one of these back home!". So he asked the old groundsman how he could get a perfect lawn for himself. The old man said, "Well, sir, it's very easy. You just find a nice piece of flat ground. You rake it to get all the stones out and then you plant the grass seed and wait for it to grow. Then you roll it and mow it, roll and mow, roll and mow for a thousand years...".


The moral of this story, guys, is that nothing worth having can be gained quickly. This is certainly true in Forex.

I think some confusion may have arisen (which is my fault) as this thread contains two trading methods:

METHOD A is suitable for beginners. It is a simple, mechanical breakout system based on my old calculator and a set of lines at significant price points. All the hard work has been done for you in the excellent indicators kindly provided by Squalou and Guru. CanuckCT has refined this system and described it very clearly on the thread and shown that it can be quite profitable if traded sensibly.

METHOD B is my own system that, perhaps with hindsight, I shouldn't have posted as it is causing confusion. This is not a beginners system, as it requires experience and judgement which you can only obtain through time and effort - perhaps years of screentime. And experience and judgement cannot be coded easily into an indicator or EA, so don't expect an indy any time soon!

All the details of implementing and trading my Method B are very clearly described in my recent posts. I have held nothing back and there is no "secret". If you want to implement my method, do as follows:

(a) Take a clean chart and drop on Fudomyo's template. You will get 57 lines on the chart, 19 monthly, 19 weekly and 19 daily.

(b) IMHO, this is too many lines to trade. I want a maximum of 4 lines. If you look at the recent EU chart (attached) you will see that where I very accurately called Wednesday's top at 3939 and Thursday's top at 4027, several of Fudo's lines coincide exactly. His calculations are almost identical to mine so he has saved me the job of writing an indicator for you!

(c) OK, so how do we throw away 53 of the 57 lines to be left with just the few that will matter? Here is where you have to do the hard work. As I have explained in several recent posts (in detail, with charts) you need to look back over the recent history on the daily and weekly charts, and identify which lines align with significant price action. This takes time, effort and practice. No short cuts!!

(d) If you do this and throw away all the lines that have no significance, you will have a chart identical to mine. If you then trade these few lines, using PA to guide your trades, you will be able to do what I do.

That's it. No secret. Just hard work and years of practice. Sorry!

Best regards and good luck.

Old Dog
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fudo1.JPG Size: 45 KB
  • #266
  • Oct 10, 2010 6:36am Oct 10, 2010 6:36am
Hello Old Dog
Thanks for your time and explanations. Sorry for these tiring questions again. One thing is difficult for me to understand. We want a simple method FROM which you started with 6 lines and you want us to start with 57 and bottle down to 6 each day.

How many do you start with to end up with 6 (50 or 10). Do you think it is a easy for us to spend hours to eliminate 57 to 6?

I have spent 5 years watching price action and I am sure people know watch price action, Any indicator can weekly or monthly like camirally works, but it is how you select which camiralla lines to trade is the secret of success.

Instead of making us rely on an indicator, would you mind spending some time for us to explanation of your calculation on how you achieved the top and bottom you mentioned earlier which would make everything easier for everyone. Which is something we can follow for our future analysis. First your inital calculation to get the lines(I am sure it is not 57) and then your analysis set up for filtering those lines.

Quote
I have heard 100000 times,every expert say spot resistence and support and trade price action in those lines.

Quote
But question we all learning traders ask is which resistence and support!!!

Hope you would not mind my questions!
  • #267
  • Oct 10, 2010 9:06am Oct 10, 2010 9:06am
Quoting adler
How many do you start with to end up with 6 (50 or 10). Do you think it is a easy for us to spend hours to eliminate 57 to 6?
It won't take you hours. With practice it will take you minutes! http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...im/winking.gif

Just use some common sense here! Obviously you can eliminate immediately those lines that are hundreds of pips away from the market as the price is not likely to get there for a few days. But remember, even if you have 4 lines on the chart, you need some more "in reserve". In a very trendy month like Setember, the price just went up. So as lines fall off the bottom of the chart, others can be put in at the top.

Quoting adler
Instead of making us rely on an indicator, would you mind spending some time for us to explanation of your calculation on how you achieved the top and bottom you mentioned earlier which would make everything easier for everyone. Which is something we can follow for our future analysis. First your inital calculation to get the lines(I am sure it is not 57) and then your analysis set up for filtering...
I usually start with a dozen or so lines, calculated from the same numbers Fudo uses:

Quoting fudomyo
Originally Posted by Fudomyo http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
(they're simple to put into whichever Pivot indicator you like)

Cheers http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif

Range = high - low;
H4 = close + (Range * 1.1/2.0);
H3 = close + (Range * 1.1/4.0);
H2 = close + (Range * 1.1/6.0);
H1 = close + (Range * 1.1/12.0);

L1 = close - (Range * 1.1/12.0);
L2 = close - (Range * 1.1/6.0);
L3 = close - (Range * 1.1/4.0);
L4 = close - (Range * 1.1/2.0);
For example, range of the week before last was around 428 pips. Put that in the H4 formula above and you get a line around 1.4027.

You can also use standard fib pivots etc. All the formulas you need are on these forums and other web sites.

Regards

Old Dog
  • #268
  • Oct 10, 2010 9:56am Oct 10, 2010 9:56am
Ok, this is my first time posting and I hope I can help out.
I've been trading this method for over 10 years, nothing new here..
I've been to the other thread where this guys thinks he created something. I can tell you straight on, that's not true. this very system is been used for a while, and taught by many companies out there, I had the pleasure of learning this system with some firm that I believe is the best out there, and perhaps, Mrs Abon....ccci did the same.. having that said. what this guy did and I give him credit for that. is find the structure and order of movement, which also is known. by the way.
.
I can tell you , that my own calculator has almost similar values of OD calc and Abona........cci...... dude....

Having bunch of lines is confusing as traders still don't know which line to buy and which one to sell..

it's starts, like this guys...

Pro-money decides to buy and they buy, then they must sell and they sell... the order of the daily cycle. is simply ( BUY DAY..... then Sell Day to take profit, and then they SELL SHORT again and then they BUY to Cover... thats the cycle you need to focus on.. if you knew where in the cycle you are......life would be easy..
before I go on and do blah blah blah many things ... I will post here monday's
Possiblities for you to evaluate, if you like what you see. I will tell you guys how
... there are other methods called anchors... I will explain that later...
first. EURUSD is bullish and must reach 1.42sss before any turn to the downside, we call that wave 2 extension. I"m not talking about elliot waves or gann........
On Monday.. Price will retrace back down toward 1.3900 and very possbily 1.3870
main buying point on program trading 1.3870 ( BUY PROGRAM, SELL PROGRAM) you can google that........
EU daily moves are either 100 or 125 pips daily. a quick scan at the chart and you can add 100 to the low and 125 to the low, that should project the turn point....
also 100 minus high and 125 minus high... try it.. guys.......

why 1.3870??????
well the sentiment is bullish toward 1.42...... right??
pro money dosen't like to drive price against them when buying... they will first advertise selling on the wire to entice traders to sell, and pro money buy all supplies...then turn market back up..in what we call Mark up and take profit phase.

so before market goes up, it first must pullback for buying opp........



Monday's levels

Upper Limit 1.3900 1.3950 1.4037 if breaks 1.4066 and 1.42ssss
Pivotal 1.3870
Lower Limit 1.3835 1.3805

this is monday's road map and possible exention toward Wed....
If market opens higher on monday's that means price will retrace....back down toward 1.3870sss
if market opens lower... will first continue lower toward 1.39sss and then bounce back up..

Good Trading for all of you.
  • #269
  • Oct 10, 2010 10:30am Oct 10, 2010 10:30am
Quoting franktrade
Monday's levels

Upper Limit 1.3900 1.3950 1.4037 if breaks 1.4066 and 1.42ssss
Pivotal 1.3870
Lower Limit 1.3835 1.3805

this is monday's road map and possible exention toward Wed....
If market opens higher on monday's that means price will retrace....back down toward 1.3870sss
if market opens lower... will first continue lower toward 1.39sss and then bounce back up..
Better to keep in mind that Japan, US and Canada will have a bank holiday tomorrow. Should be a very slow day.
  • #270
  • Oct 10, 2010 10:42am Oct 10, 2010 10:42am
then levels will work the next biz day
  • #271
  • Oct 10, 2010 11:07am Oct 10, 2010 11:07am
What are your intentions here?

This was what you posted in the other thread?

"I 'm new to this forex thing. I guess I got alot to learn.
I did blew 2 accts so far...
let's see if this acct holds ...."
  • #272
  • Oct 10, 2010 11:25am Oct 10, 2010 11:25am
Quoting rumpfunk
What are your intentions here?

This was what you posted in the other thread?

"I 'm new to this forex thing. I guess I got alot to learn.
I did blew 2 accts so far...
let's see if this acct holds ...."
I think, Twee will sort out who this guy is.
  • #273
  • Oct 10, 2010 11:36am Oct 10, 2010 11:36am
Quoting franktrade

Monday's levels

Upper Limit 1.3900 1.3950 1.4037 if breaks 1.4066 and 1.42ssss
 Pivotal 1.3870
Lower Limit 1.3835 1.3805

this is monday's road map and possible exention toward Wed....
If market opens higher on monday's that means price will retrace....back down toward 1.3870sss
if market opens lower... will first continue lower toward 1.39sss and then bounce back up..

Good Trading for all of you.
Any discussion we might have here in regards to levels to watch is welcome....I think that's what a lot of people miss about trading...they aren't watching any levels at all. Some discussion about how/why those levels are important is most welcome. And no magic calculators...even better!!

Cheers
CanuckCT

EDIT - that was a quick suspension! What's up with that?
  • #274
  • Oct 10, 2010 11:43am Oct 10, 2010 11:43am
Quoting rumpfunk
What are your intentions here?

This was what you posted in the other thread?

"I 'm new to this forex thing. I guess I got alot to learn.
I did blew 2 accts so far...
let's see if this acct holds ...."
I missed that as I've not been visiting that other thread very much.......either been trading forex for 10 years or new...can't be both.

So what's up Twee?

Cheers
CanuckCT
  • #275
  • Oct 10, 2010 11:46am Oct 10, 2010 11:46am
Quoting Indrek
Better to keep in mind that Japan, US and Canada will have a bank holiday tomorrow. Should be a very slow day.
Good time for BOJ to strike on USDJPY while liquidity is low

Intervention could get better results
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  • #276
  • Oct 10, 2010 11:46am Oct 10, 2010 11:46am
Quoting CanuckCT
I missed that as I've not been visiting that other thread very much.......either been trading forex for 10 years or new...can't be both.

So what's up Twee?

Cheers
CanuckCT
The other thread is moving quickly to the expected direction - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1933

"this system is worth paying for..."
  • #277
  • Oct 10, 2010 12:02pm Oct 10, 2010 12:02pm
Guys,

Ive just been looking back over the first indicator Sqalou gave us (the one OD describes as the beginners strategy) would the levels shown be correct to be able to backtest it?

it seems like there would be quite a few losses if so.

I will continue to watch this week though as last week it proved to be very good.

Regards

Rump.
  • #278
  • Edited 7:29pm Oct 10, 2010 1:04pm | Edited 7:29pm
Quoting CanuckCT
Any discussion we might have here in regards to levels to watch is welcome....I think that's what a lot of people miss about trading...they aren't watching any levels at all. Some discussion about how/why those levels are important is most welcome. And no magic calculators...even better!!

Cheers
CanuckCT

EDIT - that was a quick suspension! What's up with that?
I was sending a message to Twee and I must have checked the suspend box on the post I was on. This was by accident and a complete mistake. I sent a message to Twee about my mistake and also would like to apologize for it here. Hopefully, Twee will get it corrected quickly. !!!

PS, I tried to send a apology to FrankTrade, but his PMs are turned off.

Edit Well multiple user-names, So all's well that ends well. hmmm
  • #279
  • Edited 2:58pm Oct 10, 2010 2:08pm | Edited 2:58pm
Quoting rumpfunk
Guys,

Ive just been looking back over the first indicator Sqalou gave us (the one OD describes as the beginners strategy) would the levels shown be correct to be able to backtest it?
There should be more than 2 lines, If it is Resistance or Support this

doesn't mean it cannot be broken any direction.. Simply it has to mean,

if broken, then next price target come in play. And if fist line of

support/resistance would be broken or not?

Question still remains: "Should I buy or should I sell"???

How this is more than 50% chance so far I cannot see it.

To translate everything above: There is some important levels, if broken

PA will take it to the next level of support or Resistance and if Not

broken then price will range, it doesn't look as easy decision to me.

Some traders just playing simple Daily Pivot, Sell below, Buy above..

We also have to define what "broken" means??? 2 pips, 10 pips?

Hard to say.. (up to now, for me broken means candle should close above R level /below S level and it could be anything 10-40+ pips

mainly depends on what TF we are talking about)

P.S.

Playing line crossings: either Fib, or Trend Lines, or Moving averages, never been easy..

If that was working, then any of us could simply place Few Moving averages (Fast/Slow) and play crossings, but

there is SO MANY FALSE crossings that you most certainty going to lose more than win...

Could be that OD making money not because of those lines, but because of his huge experience as a trader (or Both), many

of those traders simply trading bare charts.. If you doesn't use glasses by now, I guess you gonna be trading

right, when you need one.
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  • #280
  • Edited 5:24am Oct 11, 2010 2:43am | Edited 5:24am
Quoting Old_Dog
It won't take you hours....
Thanks Old Dog much better now, So for daily lines you use previous weekly range and previous day close and can I assume for weekly lines you use, monthly range and previous week close and for monthly lines you use previous month close and previous year range?
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