NY 5pm Fibs

Introduction:

(Take a look at Page # 11, Post #167 for an update - Expirement 3 .... if you want to get to it.....some changes have been made....if you want a history...keep reading below.)

This is an Experiment
Trade at your own risk
See the attachment below
Please feel free to add your thoughts

Indicator:

CanuckCT has created an indicator.

Indicator is attached below. Indicator is a work in process.... Indicator is painting fibs back in time for visual testing of the Entries, TPs and SLs.

Anchor Pivot is calculated at the 5pm EDT Open Candle, UTC_GMT 21
To shift, use positive numbers only.

Keep on 1HR View

Download Indicator and use the following (this is Experiment 2)
BTP = 100
BE = 50
BSL = 0
STP = 100
SE = 50
SSL = 0
BSL, SSL and Open labels will overlap

You need to understand how I initially created the Blue and Red Fibs so that you can put in the correct Fib information.
The indicator will replace the Setup Steps below.
Post #5 really shows the Blue and Red Fibs expanded.
Fibs are generated long (Blue) and short (Red).
(You can use your own Fib %.)(Goal is to manage risk first and then take profit.)

Reading through the first four pages is worth your while to see how this has evolved....wont take long.

Short Description:

Use fibs based on the NY Close and the Daily ATR(22)/2, rounded up.

(Experiment 1 ... not as profitable as orignally thought.)
Blue Fib:
TP at 150
Buy at 76.4
SL at 23.6

Red Fib:
SL at 23.6
Sell at 76.4
TP at 150


(Experiment 2 ... much more profitable then Experiment 1.)

TP at Blue 100
Buy at Blue 50
SL at Blue 0

SL at Red 0
Sell at Red 50
TP at Red 100

MM:

1. Trade at your own risk
2. Modify Buy, Sell, SL, TP and Lots based on calculating how much you can afford to lose based on your Trading Objectives, and Trading Plan
3. Modify Buy, Sell, SL, TP and Lots based on Trend

Trend:

1. Use the 1 Hr View
2. Squeeze the View
3. Determine your perception of the Trend
4. Suggestion, fib the previous week with your favorite fibs or numbers
4.1 Put the 0 fib at the high or the low in the direction of the Trend
4.2 If the previous week's close is > the open, Trend is Up
4.3 If the previous week's close is < the open, Trend is Down
4.4 If the previous week's close is = to the open, use fib from 2 week's ago

Setup:

Indicator replaces the following Setup steps.

1. Calculate the Daily ATR(22) -- keep it simple and use the ATR based on your broker's day
2. Divide the result by 2
3. Use the Fib Tool with your favorite Fibs or numbers
4. You will need 2 Fib Tools.

5. Color code the up Fib Tool Blue
5. Edit the Fib Tool Properties Parameters Tab
6. Put the (( sum of the 5pm Open Price + the Daily ATR(22)/2 )) into the highest value box
7. Put the 5pm Open Price in the lowest value box

8. Color code the down Fib Tool Red
9. Edit the Fib Tool Properties Parameters Tab
10. Put the 5pm Open Price in the highest value box
11. Put the (( sum of the 5pm Open Price - the Daily ATR(22)/2 )) into the lowest value box

12. 5pm EDT = 21 UTC GMT
13. Demo Broker is PMG Best
14. Fib tool is the only tool needed
15. Other Fib lines in the attached are Weekly and based on 2008.7.11 to 2008.10.24
16. Other indicators are ATR in PIPs, i-5days, P4L Clock, PivotPoints MultiTimeframe and an indicator used to shade time based on an indicator created by Accrete
16.1 I use the hourly view and the ATR(22) on the hourly screen shows the hourly average for the past 22 hours. I switch to the Daily view to get the Daily ATR(22)
17. If you'd like the indicators, please search for them in FF
18. Remember, all you need is the Fib Tool and to know when 5pm EDT, and eventually, 5pm EST occurs. You don't need CanuckCT's indicator.

Comments:

1. I'd like to see if trading from 5pm EDT and eventually 5pm EST, based on the above or a modification of the above, can be profitable
2. I don't trade this method, yet ... the Buy at 50, TP at 100, SL at 0 and the Sell at 50, TP at 100, SL at 0 has been proving profitable
3. Trade at your own risk. CanuckCT and I are not responsible for your wins or losses
4. Thanks go out to many FF members - 2005 to present

Some thoughts:

EU Trend has been up for some time.
EU Weekly trend from last week has been up.
Price has retraced to the Weekly 38.2 fib and broken above 0 or 100 depending on how you draw your fibs.
Price has reached 127.2 of last weeks fib.

Price is retracing from weekly 127.2 fib and weekly R1

Attachment shows ATR(22) on the E/U Daily = 143/2 = 71.5, round up to 72

Attachment shows the Fib from 2008.7.11 to 2009.10.24

Had to squeeze the view to show both fibs and showing where price is around 11:45 pm EDT

Attached is a squeezed view of the 1 hr screen with a weekly fib, 0 at the top.
Note the retracement to the 38.2 fib and note the Red R1 Weekly Pivot.

We are told that the pro's calculate Risk first and then calculate the Reward.

Currently,
I'm willing to Risk a retracement of 52.80% (Red Vertical Line), based on a Sell Entry at 76.40% to obtain a Reward on an extention of 73.60% (Blue Vertical Line), based on a TP at 150% and a SL at 23.60%...whether going Long or Short.

The second attachment shows that we had a buy that did not take profit, and it hit the SL. Blue Fib 76.4 was the Buy Entry, and Blue Fib 23.6 was the SL.

Will weekly fibs play a role in determining our daily buys or sells?

Do we just take buys if the weekly trend is up?

If the weekly trend is up and a retracement trade is taken, should the TP be less then the red 150%?

Will daily fibs play a role in determine our daily buys or sells?

What if the current day results in a Daily Inside Bar, would we use the previous day's fib for the following trading day?

What if no trades are taken by the next days NY close, do we cancel the trade?

Daily Fib pulled after the fact in an attempt to see if the Daily Fib could affect our TP Targets.

The Black Fib measures yesterdays PA and it shows yesterdays PA reached yesterday's Daily Fib at 150.00%.

Yesterday's Black Fib at 150.00% matches the Blue Up Fib at 123.60%

Let's see what happens.

Use fibs based on the NY Close and the Daily ATR(22)/2.
Buy at 76.4
Sell at 150
SL at 23.6
Fibs are generated long and short.

Daily Fib pulled up.

Let's see what happens.

Use fibs based on the NY Close and the Daily ATR(22)/2.
Buy at 76.4
Sell at 150
SL at 23.6
Fibs are generated long and short.

Daily Fib pulled down.

There is a loss, Red Fib, that entered at 76.4%, and did not make the 150.0% TP, but did hit the Red 23.6% SL.

There is a loss, Blue Fib, that entered at 76.4%, and did not make the 150.0% TP, but did hit the Red 23.6% SL.

Price has been fluctuating around the Weekly R1 Pivot.

Hi BarneyDog,

As you know I've been tinkering with something similar. So will be watching here to see if I can contribute in some way. Here is what I've been watching all week. So it's interesting that I find your thread.

I've been taking the Old DOg pivot point and applying a fib up and down from that point rather than the close...using 1/2 of the 22 day ATR. Actually I've rounded to about 75 pips....as it's just an observation at this time.



Cheers
CanuckCT

The way I've been thinking to play it it buying on the 23 fib....stop at the pivot...and on the touch of each fib...move stop to the prior fib. After stopped out, needs to return to pivot to reset. Simply a way to play the breakout from the pivot.
Cheers
CanuckCT

CCT:

You were the inspiration to start this thread.

BD

see prior post...enter on 23 fib...or 76, depending how you draw it
Cheers
CanuckCT

Buy on 23.6, TP at next fib (38.2), SL at Pivot
Sell at 23.6, TP at next fib (38.2), SL at Pivot

Yes?

Not a lot of room for PA.

(After rereading your post, I miss understood)

Buy on 23.6, SL at 0, TP = Move SL to 23.6 when PA hits 38.6, and let PA hit 23.6 as a SL.
TP = then Move SL to 38.6 when PA hits 50.0, and let PA hit 38.6 as a SL.
TP = then Move SL to 50.0 when PA hits 61.8, and let PA hit 38.6 as a SL.

Is that a better understanding?

I was thinking like this...

Buy at 23 fib
Stop at pivot
Prive moves 38 fib
Move to BE
Price moves to 50 fib
Move stop to 38 fib
Price moves to 61 fib
Stop to 50 fib
etc

So you are always moving your stop based on the fib levels...no TP.

Not sure if valid approach....just watching at the moment.

Cheers
CanuckCT

Here would be the trades for the first four days of the week...I'll post Friday in a minute. Blue is either a winning or BE trade. Orange a loser...I have one marked in wrong color.

After looking at your 1st chart, what about:

Entry at 61.8, SL at 0, TP = move SL to 61.8 when 78.6 is hit, then move SL to 78.6 when 88.2 is hit, then move SL to 88.2 when 78.6 is hit, then move SL to 100 when 88.6 is hit, then move SL to 100 when 111.8 is it.