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Old Dog Fib Trading - EURUSD

  • #201
  • Oct 6, 2010 4:56pm Oct 6, 2010 4:56pm
An update around 5:45 pm EDT:


Price is up,
potentially take buy above Blue 76.4 or Blue 100.0 or
sell below Red 76.4 or Red 100.

Target could beBlue or Red 150.0.

SL could be Blue 26.4 or Red 26.4.

---Also, not sure this belongs in this thread.---
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5.10.2010 ny close 545 pm edt.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #202
  • Oct 6, 2010 5:37pm Oct 6, 2010 5:37pm
I think this question is on the wrong thread.

Cheers
CanuckCT

Quoting neltonbenke
Is that correct? I use the phase where prices are at the moment?
  • #203
  • Oct 6, 2010 5:54pm Oct 6, 2010 5:54pm
[Quote = CanuckCT; 4078334] Eu acho que essa questão é no segmento incorreto.

Saúde
CanuckCT [/ quote]

Ok deleted, sorry!
  • #204
  • Oct 6, 2010 6:23pm Oct 6, 2010 6:23pm
Quoting neltonbenke
[Quote = CanuckCT; 4078334] Eu acho que essa questão é no segmento incorreto.

Saúde
CanuckCT [/ quote]

Ok deleted, sorry!
No problem...I just don't want this thread to begin to provide support for the Abonnaci thread. That would be a full time job.
Cheers
CanuckCT
  • #205
  • Oct 6, 2010 6:36pm Oct 6, 2010 6:36pm
Quoting CanuckCT
If there is anyone who has any EA programming skills, can you send me a PM. I have reached out to a few people...and everyone is so busy. Thanks.
Cheers
CanuckCT
Putting together an EA for this would be very simple as my understanding is that we are just doing trades at the indicated breakout levels with a TP of target 1 or 2 and a fixed SL (as per the trade boxes shown on my indicator)

This can be achieved by creating pending orders at the start of each day, BUT ...

I think there is more tweeking required first with respect to entry/exit points. Some buy trades are showing up below the opening price which to me means something is not quite right. Also, I believe that the trades should be more dynamic (as discussed with OD earlier)

We should also decide if trades should be taken multiple times. By this I mean the following scenario ...
The first buy breakout is triggered and wins.
The price then drops back to below the entry point of the buy.
Do we take a 2nd buy on the way down?
Do we wait for a close below the entry point to create a new pending order?
Do we wait for it to cross the pivot instead?

All of these strategies have merits and can actually work very well.
  • #206
  • Oct 6, 2010 6:46pm Oct 6, 2010 6:46pm
Quoting Old_Dog
The calc is just a simple least-squares linear regression over the recent past using matrix differential linear algebra
Quoting Old_Dog
Just secondary school maths...
I must have been away that day

So I will be the first to admit that I have no idea how to translate this into a calculation which will provide the various constants in our existing trade calculations.

But thinking about this logically, wouldn't entry and exit points just be aligned somehow with the phases relative to close (or even just the phases themselves. I understand the whole COD concept but if the phases don't change for a month, why should we be limited to a daily closing value? Just throwing it out there for discussion)
  • #207
  • Oct 7, 2010 1:55am Oct 7, 2010 1:55am
Quoting theGuru
I must have been away that day

So I will be the first to admit that I have no idea how to translate this into a calculation which will provide the various constants in our existing trade calculations.

But thinking about this logically, wouldn't entry and exit points just be aligned somehow with the phases relative to close (or even just the phases themselves. I understand the whole COD concept but if the phases don't change for a month, why should we be limited to a daily closing value? Just throwing it out there for discussion)

I "probably" was there... but "surely" forgot about it since then

OldDog, you are fantastic!
Are you using Matlab to get those resolved ?

What we want here is this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Least_squares

And the commonly used algorithm to solve that is the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levenbe...ardt_algorithm

for which a reference C implementation can be found here:

http://www.ics.forth.gr/~lourakis/levmar/

An excellent math page about multiple linear regression theory, but it's in french (couldn't find the equivalent in english)

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/R%C3%A9...9aire_multiple

Another good resource for C coders (easily adapted to C#), which has algos for multiple linear regression too (and many more):

http://www.nrbook.com/c/


Now we have our challenges:
-1- code the least-squares multiple linear regression into mq4...
-2- find what values we are going to feed it with !!!


SQ
  • #208
  • Oct 7, 2010 4:38am Oct 7, 2010 4:38am
Quoting squalou
I "probably" was there... but "surely" forgot about it since then

OldDog, you are fantastic!
Are you using Matlab to get those resolved ?


Now we have our challenges:
-1- code the least-squares multiple linear regression into mq4...
-2- find what values we are going to feed it with !!!


SQ
Hard work ahead.
  • #209
  • Oct 7, 2010 4:41am Oct 7, 2010 4:41am
Quoting squalou
I "probably" was there... but "surely" forgot about it since then

OldDog, you are fantastic!
Are you using Matlab to get those resolved ?
My dear Squalou

I recognise you clearly as a fellow Jedi as the Force is very strong with you!

You have understood the optimisation required completely and I do indeed use Matlab. Solving the required set of equations is just one command in Matlab, but I fear will be rather harder in MQ4.

Although matrix inversion is the obvious route, it is extremely painful to code. I suggest a Ridders-type forwards-and-backwards minimisation approach which, while less efficient, is not so much code.

But I leave the serious coding decisions to your good self.

Very best regards

Old Dog
  • #210
  • Edited 6:35am Oct 7, 2010 5:05am | Edited 6:35am
Maybe it's not done in MT4....phover has an excellent piece of work outside MT4 and works in conjunction with it. Food for thought.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=252692

Cheers
CanuckCT
  • #211
  • Oct 7, 2010 6:15am Oct 7, 2010 6:15am
Quoting Old_Dog
My dear Squalou

I recognise you clearly as a fellow Jedi as the Force is very strong with you!

You have understood the optimisation required completely and I do indeed use Matlab....

I like that kind of challenge... it is less boring than coding the same EA variations ever and ever again ....


What we can do while i (and others if you feel like it...) try to figure out how to code the multiple linear regression thingie, is to determine the data that we are going to feed the algo with...

OldDog, you are the best person here who knows what data where fed to obtain your Pivot, Sentiment, BO and Target levels, right ?...
If i may...


SQ.
  • #212
  • Oct 7, 2010 7:08am Oct 7, 2010 7:08am
Squalou and Guru,

I am not sure if this can be done, but is it possible to have something in the indicator that determines how MANY phases will be drawn?

I want to try and look to targets which are sometimes well away from the current price. I also want to draw some other fibs that will start higher.

However at the moment, both indicators are only as high as the current phase and not beyond that.

It's no problem if this can not be done, as I will draw them in manually, but it woudl really be handy. Even if the default is to draw 2/3 phases above the current one.

Is it possible?

Regards

Lee
  • #213
  • Edited 7:24am Oct 7, 2010 7:13am | Edited 7:24am
Guys

For all of you who have PM'd and emailed me, please remember that while we are up to our arses in alligators (programming linear algebra optimisations etc), the original objective was to drain the swamp (make a few pips!).

The basic idea here is very simple:

(1) Use some magic computations (many ways to do this, eg Bobi, OD, fudomyo, etc) to draw a VERY FEW magic lines where the market has a VERY STRONG CHANCE of reacting. I would suggest an absolute maximum of 6 lines on the entire chart, say 3 above and 3 below the current price. As Skyzer says, we do not want a chart like a zebra with lines every 10 pips! It is untradable.

(2) Interpret simple Price Action near those lines to make trading decisions.

That's it. As CanuckCT will testify, as he and I were chatting live yesterday, I had a line 1.3779 where I went long. My next line was at 1.3939 for my TP. I was basically calling the top at 3939.

In fact the market top yesterday was 1.3945. I made 160 pips but I was robbed of 6 pips http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...m/big_grin.gif.

Did you notice how the market kept bouncing off 3939 all evening?

The 0800 (GMT+3) bar was a perfect hammer off 3939. Then at 0900 came the volatility breakout, and so we go to the next line...

Properly interpreted PA on its own will win you 6 or 7 out of 10 trades. Properly interpreted PA near significant levels will win you 14/15 trades. Couple that with R:R of 1:4+ and you don't even need to do the sums to see what you can achieve.

Keep it simple, guys!!

Best regards

Old Dog
Attached Image
  • #214
  • Oct 7, 2010 7:59am Oct 7, 2010 7:59am
Thanks Old dog for your clear example, but is these numbers from your same calculation you provided earlier

Hello guru/sql

Please can you explain, old dog was saying in the forum just now as he had a line in 1.3779 and next line was 1.3939 and he made 160 pips, how come neither guru or sq indicator have these lines?

The whole point of using these indicators using old dogs calculation is for these special numbers?
  • #215
  • Oct 7, 2010 8:13am Oct 7, 2010 8:13am
Quoting Old_Dog
Guys

For all of you who have PM'd and emailed me, please remember that while we are up to our arses in alligators (programming linear algebra optimisations etc), the original objective was to drain the swamp (make a few pips!).

The basic idea here is very simple:

(1) Use some magic computations (many ways to do this, eg Bobi, OD, fudomyo, etc) to draw a VERY FEW magic lines where the market has a VERY STRONG CHANCE of reacting. I would suggest an absolute maximum of 6 lines on the entire chart,...
Old Dog,

Very impressive! Im sure im not the only person who your ideas have had a very positive effect on and leading me to explore more into how key prices are giving us a good road map for the days trading.

May I ask how close are your lines to the ones that have been created on Squalous's indi?

Appreciate what your doing here guys.

Regards

Rump.
  • #216
  • Edited 8:27am Oct 7, 2010 8:22am | Edited 8:27am
Quoting adler
Please can you explain, old dog was saying in the forum just now as he had a line in 1.3779 and next line was 1.3939 and he made 160 pips, how come neither guru or sq indicator have these lines?
Guys,

These lines are NOT in the current indicators, so please don't hassle Squalou or Guru for them. This is a brand new idea that is still in development. For me, it represents the logical ultimate extension of the levels/PA ideas I have used for years.

I have just closed off my trades for the day and am off out. While trading, I was in live chat with CanuckCT and LeeMonk. I am doing this because I believe it is very important for the credibility of this thread that these kind of claims can be independently verified by respected traders.

I called the TP at 1.40275, see chart.

The high for the day (thus far) is 1.40280, so we were accurate to 0.5 pip. Robbed again! http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...m/big_grin.gif

This has now worked for 2 days in a row. But two days is not proof of concept. Just cause for optimism.

Please don't ask for details yet.

Chart attached.

Best regards

Old Dog
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #217
  • Oct 7, 2010 8:31am Oct 7, 2010 8:31am
A few people have sent me e-mails or PMs regarding what to do, so I'll post my take on what is here on this thread.

Squalou's Indicator
This indicator was the initial indicator using the Old Dog breakout strategy that uses the NY close and Old Dogs pivot calculations and related breakout trades. That was the setup that caught my eye as one that seemed to be profitable. This is the one I use at the moment for my trades.

Guru's Indicator
Guru's indicator is a bit more complex. It calculates a baseline using fibs or a calculation that is provided earlier on this thread. It then does breakout calculations based on Old Dog calculations or his interpretation of the Abonacci calculator and by default he uses a 7 pip buffer for the breakout zone.

So, that's four choices with Guru's indicator....(yes, I am watching all four out of curiosity)
Fib Baseline, Old Dog breakouts
Calculated Baseline, Old Dog Targets
Calculated Baseline, Calculated Targets
Fib Baseline, Calculated Targets

So with these tools, there is likely a breakout strategy somewhere that might work for you. Whether it stands the test of time will be for you to judge. Old Dog has indicated his calculations were optimized in 2005. take that for what it's worth.

You will not have a 100% wins. You will have losses. But you also need a number of trades to evaluate.

So I have summarized the results since October 1...a very small timeframe, for the different settings. You can't trade them all...well I guess you could with good money management.

The point is, there is enough here to give you an edge, I believe, if you are having trouble with price action.

My two cents.

Rough calculations since October 1, 2010

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-10-07_1020.png Size: 30 KB


I'm not going to build you any templates...that you'll need to do on your own.

Cheers
CanuckCT
  • #218
  • Oct 7, 2010 8:33am Oct 7, 2010 8:33am
Two days....and a top was called with me. So, is a work in progress...please don't keep pushing for how...just enjoy the tools already here.

Cheers
CanuckCT

Quoting Old_Dog
Guys,

These lines are NOT in the current indicators, so please don't hassle Squalou or Guru for them....
  • #219
  • Oct 7, 2010 8:36am Oct 7, 2010 8:36am
Quoting Old_Dog
I have just closed off my trades for the day and am off out. While trading, I was in live chat with CanuckCT and LeeMonk.

I can varify that OD's targets were given to me well in advance of price action and he was even kind enough to send me some pics...... of the charts.

In relation to keeping the credability in the thread............ I think there may have been to many "Hell yeahs", "woop woops" and a few swear words in the chat to do that

On a serious note. This advanced system looks incredibly good......... even on OIL!

Regards

Lee
  • #220
  • Oct 7, 2010 8:39am Oct 7, 2010 8:39am
Quoting adler
Thanks Old dog for your clear example, but is these numbers from your same calculation you provided earlier

Hello guru/sql

Please can you explain, old dog was saying in the forum just now as he had a line in 1.3779 and next line was 1.3939 and he made 160 pips, how come neither guru or sq indicator have these lines?

The whole point of using these indicators using old dogs calculation is for these special numbers?
Adler,

OD and I have been chatting about these SR lines. The point of the post was to demonstrate that if you look for the correct PA around these lines, then the trades should present themselves well.

Clearly OD has some very good levels, but he won't trade them without PA....... ask him.

You should get decent PA off the current set of lines too and if you see price acting around a certain level at differnt times of the day, then it may be worth looking at why.... throwing some fibs on etc etc...... if its a key area that regularly works, then you can take advantage of it.

Regards

Lee
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