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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #19,541
  • Oct 4, 2010 6:50am Oct 4, 2010 6:50am
Quoting MaMood
Hi,
back from lunch again.

Just a short update of the contest.
The leading has made now $375K out off $100K.
And I have made -6% so far.
Seems that I'm one of his hardest competitor.
I'm chasing him hard
Hi, MaMood.
I've been in your shoes, I know exactly what you mean. I've traded my contest account with the mindset(a little bit more aggressive) I have when trading my live account and it doesn't work I end up positive with 50%-70% profit after one month and the winner of the contest has 500% - 1000% profit

The last contest account got obliterated by just a few swings on the hourly chart, because of the urge to chase the profit pecentages required for the win
  • #19,542
  • Oct 4, 2010 7:26am Oct 4, 2010 7:26am
Quoting MyTbo
Hi, MaMood.
I've been in your shoes, I know exactly what you mean. I've traded my contest account with the mindset(a little bit more aggressive) I have when trading my live account and it doesn't work I end up positive with 50%-70% profit after one month and the winner of the contest has 500% - 1000% profit

The last contest account got obliterated by just a few swings on the hourly chart, because of the urge to chase the profit pecentages required for the win
Hi MyTbo,

glad that at least one other TAF trader has tried such a crazy adventure.
Will be very curious, if my account will survive the first day ...

  • #19,543
  • Oct 4, 2010 7:32am Oct 4, 2010 7:32am
Quoting MaMood
Hi,
back from lunch again.

Just a short update of the contest.
The leading has made now $375K out off $100K.
And I have made -6% so far.
Seems that I'm one of his hardest competitor.
I'm chasing him hard
Hi MaMood

Attention in competition, "can go wrong trader mindset"
My personal experience ... then heavy repair.

Rgs
  • #19,544
  • Oct 4, 2010 7:49am Oct 4, 2010 7:49am
Quoting Gro
Hi MaMood

Attention in competition, "can go wrong trader mindset"
My personal experience ... then heavy repair.

Rgs

Hi Gro,

thanx for taking care.
Yeah - I know what you are talking about.
I do not take it very seriuos. It's more like playing with Playstation or WII.
Finally it will show how tightened my mindset already has become.

Cu,
MaMood
  • #19,545
  • Oct 4, 2010 7:56am Oct 4, 2010 7:56am
Hi again,

if you want to take a look on my contest-account while trading, please send me a PM. Iwill send you the credentials then.

Warning: It's not for educational purposes!!!
It'S just for fun.
And may be to test the possiblity for watching/transmitting some live sessions in the future ...

Cu,
MaMood
  • #19,546
  • Oct 4, 2010 8:00am Oct 4, 2010 8:00am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Gro,

thanx for taking care.
Yeah - I know what you are talking about.
I do not take it very seriuos. It's more like playing with Playstation or WII.
Finally it will show how tightened my mindset already has become.

Cu,
MaMood
Do you remember how FTI said the virtual combat game? "get at least bruise"
  • #19,547
  • Oct 4, 2010 8:03am Oct 4, 2010 8:03am
Quoting Gro
Do you remember how FTI said the virtual combat game? "at least have bruises"
No, unfortunately I can't remember that he has spoken about it.
But I have to say, that I do by far not know his teachings so well than you. Sometimes I think you have stored the whole thread in your brain ...

Thanx again, Gro!
  • #19,548
  • Oct 4, 2010 8:10am Oct 4, 2010 8:10am
Quoting MaMood
No, unfortunately I can't remember that he has spoken about it.
But I have to say, that I do by far not know his teachings so well than you. Sometimes I think you have stored the whole thread in your brain ...

Thanx again, Gro!
what brain, please? :nerd: ............
  • #19,549
  • Oct 4, 2010 8:25am Oct 4, 2010 8:25am
I think I have to do my maths again ....

We have strated with $100K, leverage 1:100.
The leader has already $37Mio.
Seems has setup nearly all his capital in one trade and was lucky ....

Strange....
  • #19,550
  • Oct 4, 2010 8:36am Oct 4, 2010 8:36am
Quoting MaMood
I think I have to do my maths again ....

We have strated with $100K, leverage 1:100.
The leader has already $37Mio.
Seems has setup nearly all his capital in one trade and was lucky ....

Strange....
Yes, the input is either-or, then the profit is used to increase positions.Of course, you have several accounts (preferably whole family) ... it's the big fiddle
  • #19,551
  • Oct 4, 2010 8:41am Oct 4, 2010 8:41am
Quoting Gro
Yes, the input is either-or, then the profit is used to increase positions.Of course, you have several accounts (preferably whole family) ... it's the big fiddle
Hmmh - so there is still a chance for me.
The second one has had 30Mio too, but is fallen down to 160K now.

If you want to take a look yourself, here is the link for the ranking.

http://forexgp.migbank.com/index.php?lng=en
  • #19,552
  • Edited 2:50pm Oct 4, 2010 8:50am | Edited 2:50pm
Quoting MaMood
Hmmh - so there is still a chance for me.
The second one has had 30Mio too, but is fallen down to 160K now.

If you want to take a look yourself, here is the link for the ranking.

http://forexgp.migbank.com/index.php?lng=en
ya ya divided into four parts account = two rescue.Trade and the daily trend, of either it works or not.If you cancel your account,then open a new account on someone else's.Have fun

Inserted Video
  • #19,553
  • Oct 6, 2010 12:36am Oct 6, 2010 12:36am
Hi guys, I'm still a bit behind on this thread, but I am learning to dance the rhythm. I can feel most tops and bottoms, which is great on trends (higher waves than last one w/ strong thrusts). I have several questions:

When I feel that the wave is falling back on me and I have a scout in, do I pull him out and wait for the retrace? I assume so.

On sept 27 2010-sept 28 I watched the market fall into a 50ish pip range. This is where I have the most trouble trading FTI's methodology because his method is trend trading. I saw a double top forming and so I waited for confirmation. The volatility slowed, a quick thrust up happened and the price fell quickly towards the downside. I decided that this was a good sell point IF the trend were down. But it isn't. What followed was price bouncing from major s/r and a break towards the large trend direction at the end of the day.

Would you guys trade this range (Does FTI have a pip range/volatility benchmark of when not to trade. I think he uses 3min 7max run ups and downs as his criteria. Unfortunately in a range you hardly get a 7 bar run and any 3 bar run is very likely to fall on the next bar)? How do you time it? Are the sequences the same? Do you assume the trend is the same as when it entered the range or do you use the dynamic real-time (last few waves in your range) waves to predict the direction?

From what I noticed, every time the price would make a higher wave, it would seem to go up for a bit and then crash below the high of the previous wave (in an uptrend). This behavior is interesting, does it happen frequently?

I tend to exit when the volatility points in the opposite direction when the bar I'm watching easily falls beneath the last one, falls below its close (if the bar is small), watch for engulfing patterns or at the 50% point. Is this generally correct?

Thanks
  • #19,554
  • Oct 6, 2010 6:13am Oct 6, 2010 6:13am
Ive been following this thread for a fair few months and find it exceedingly interesting, however whenever u try and put it into practise i almost always buy/sell the given currency the very second it turns around, i was wondering if anyone could put some advice my way concerning this problem?
  • #19,555
  • Oct 6, 2010 7:20am Oct 6, 2010 7:20am
Quoting MaMood
Hmmh - so there is still a chance for me.
The second one has had 30Mio too, but is fallen down to 160K now.

If you want to take a look yourself, here is the link for the ranking.

http://forexgp.migbank.com/index.php?lng=en
your lady o first choice is in heavy intervention territory - this may be your chance to catch up
  • #19,556
  • Oct 6, 2010 8:20am Oct 6, 2010 8:20am
Quoting Twofx
Ive been following this thread for a fair few months and find it exceedingly interesting, however whenever u try and put it into practise i almost always buy/sell the given currency the very second it turns around, i was wondering if anyone could put some advice my way concerning this problem?
next time u feel like doing a buy , do a sell instead ... what u have is timing problem ...
once u practice the contrarian approach , ur timing will dramatically improves...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #19,557
  • Oct 6, 2010 12:12pm Oct 6, 2010 12:12pm
Quoting fullperson
Hi guys, I'm still a bit behind on this thread, but I am learning to dance the rhythm. I can feel most tops and bottoms, which is great on trends (higher waves than last one w/ strong thrusts). I have several questions:

When I feel that the wave is falling back on me and I have a scout in, do I pull him out and wait for the retrace? I assume so.

On sept 27 2010-sept 28 I watched the market fall into a 50ish pip range. This is where I have the most trouble trading FTI's methodology because his method is trend trading. I saw a double top forming...
Hi fullperson

I have been trying to instigate fti's approach for the last 12 months so therefore I am not qualified to give any advice. However, since no one else has replied I will make a few comments.

I do not know what time-frame you are trading but I try to feel the market using the 5minute 1 Hour and Daily chart and sometimes even the 1 minute. But mainly the 5 minute.

I have found that many many hours of trading are required to progress in this quest to feel the market. Therefore I trade a very small account with very small troop sizes.

In order to grasp fti's approach I have been reading and re-reading the first 200 pages of this thread. I now try not to be too rigid in my approach to certain situations because no two situations are exactly the same in the markets. For me, the beauty of this approach is that I have tended to develop my own flexibility to what happens in the market and have gradually eliminated rigid rules which were hindering my progress.

I don't look for set rules with fti's method. Rather, I try to develop a workable method for ME that is derived from his teachings.

I hope that others more qualified may find the time to assist you further with your quest.

Best Wishes
With wisdom comes humility. With humility comes wisdom!
  • #19,558
  • Oct 6, 2010 2:38pm Oct 6, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting fullperson
Hi guys, I'm still a bit behind on this thread, but I am learning to dance the rhythm. I can feel most tops and bottoms, which is great on trends (higher waves than last one w/ strong thrusts). I have several questions:

When I feel that the wave is falling back on me and I have a scout in, do I pull him out and wait for the retrace? I assume so.

On sept 27 2010-sept 28 I watched the market fall into a 50ish pip range. This is where I have the most trouble trading FTI's methodology because his method is trend trading. I saw a double top forming...
Hi fullperson

Why scout? - scout are You in the market ...
Where scout? - time windows open ...
Where scout out? - if you do not fight ...
Why 5min. chart? and why 3 candles in average 7 (15-35min.)?, process between the banks, you've read? ...

I think that you have wrong read the thread and market is a very hard teacher

Rgs
  • #19,559
  • Oct 6, 2010 7:40pm Oct 6, 2010 7:40pm
hey all been extremely busy with family affairs and unable to trade as I would like to. I look forward to reading over the posts that were added since I was last here.
  • #19,560
  • Oct 6, 2010 8:36pm Oct 6, 2010 8:36pm
Thanks, I'm only on page 250 so I have a ways to go. Not sure what you mean by the "time window" or "process" but I think that's because fti has not gone over that in the first 250 pages yet (right?)

I will have to continue reading, this is a very long thread. I will try to pm you guys instead, I don't want to add filler to his thread.
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