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Old Dog Fib Trading - EURUSD

  • #161
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:25pm Oct 5, 2010 1:25pm
Here is what I think you can follow as a set of rules....

Each day there are two lines on your chart....a pivot and a sentiment. These number are based on calculations provided by Old Dog. When the Sentiment is higher than the pivot, the bias is up and when the Sentiment is lower than the pivot, the bias is down.

As far as taking trades, you first must determine if you want to consider the bias. Yesterday there were two winning sell trades. If you let bias influence you decision, you would have passed on these trades and had no trades.

Today, bias is still up....so you would have taken both buy trades and ignored the sell trade, if you are letting sentiment affect your decision.

I am suggesting you trade with the bias...but there will be lots of trades in the other direction that you pass on when doing this.

Think of the template as a tool. Sometimes your decisions will result in a losing trade...that's trading. Pick an approach and follow it.

That is why we are developing the EA, so we might do a thorough backtesting of a couple of these strategies. A visual inspection of the trades indicates, to me, that trading with the sentiment is a winning strategy.

Consider this strategy #1 and there are two ways to play it.

There are other strategies that will develop as we move along.

Cheers
CanuckCT


Quoting ES Trader
Thanks. Dumb me should have known. But if I had taken break out short at 3649 I would have lost. Am I right?
  • #162
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:26pm Oct 5, 2010 1:26pm
As long as it is absolutely unclear how the base line and phase gap are being calculated, I decided to use a bit different approach.
My phase gap is the average range of last 20 days and the last day pivot always marks 50 % of the phase.
Today, ADR(20) was 144 pips, so my phase was 72 pips above and below the daily pivot. Traded the break of 38.2% and banked 80 pips on EU and 75 pips on EY.
Sorry to be a bit off topic. Just wanted to show that the main idea can be used in different ways. Every trader has to find his/her own way instead of blindly following anyone else's approach.

By the way: I have had some doubts about using 99-100 pips as a phase gap for October instead of 127 one month earlier. The problem is that October is usually a very good month for trading. With good trends and volatility. So, I find it not too logical to reduce the phase gap for October. It should be vice versa. So, I stick to ADR(20) that I understand better.
Attached Images
  • #163
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:32pm Oct 5, 2010 1:32pm
Quoting fratelli
Hi All

Here some quistion I have

1. In old ABO thread there was a rule about entry at BO level + 7pips...
1. no
2. see my previous post
3. I would suggest 40 pips....but this is just my view. Sometimes the risk/reward is not great.
4. You can use pivot to trade if you like and develop a strategy around that. If you come up with something, you might report back.
5. No, there is no such rule here.

Cheers
CanuckCT
  • #164
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:32pm Oct 5, 2010 1:32pm
Quoting ES Trader
Above Pivot. Check it out again
Pivot 3694
Breakout to sell 3656

Im not sure what you meant, but CanuckCT explained what i meant with considering sentiment. Personaly i use this indie instead of pivots in combination with my trading system, so i dont take every trade, just the ones that agree on both sides.
  • #165
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:42pm Oct 5, 2010 1:42pm
Good stuff...the notion that each pair will fill it's average daily range is a valid one. Using 38.2 up and down to get you in, I like that. Easy every day to set it up and trade it. And easy to apply to many pairs.

Cheers
CanuckCT

Quoting Indrek
As long as it is absolutely unclear how the base line and phase gap are...
  • #166
  • Oct 5, 2010 1:51pm Oct 5, 2010 1:51pm
Quoting CanuckCT
Good stuff...the notion that each pair will fill it's average daily range is a valid one. Using 38.2 up and down to get you in, I like that. Easy easy day to set it up and trade it. And easy to apply to many pairs.

Cheers
CanuckCT
I would not be sure about many pairs. They may behave too differently. I trade only EU and EY, so I know that these two respect pivots and fibs equally very well. At the same time, GU has had not much logics during last months or even longer period.
  • #167
  • Oct 5, 2010 2:41pm Oct 5, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting Indrek
There are tons of different indicators for that. The simpliest is the default ATR indicator.
Ok thanks, nevermind, I found few
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #168
  • Oct 5, 2010 2:49pm Oct 5, 2010 2:49pm
Quoting zznbrm
Indrek,

Does this indicator follow your criteria:

Gray line - day open
White line - day pivot (based upon 1700 NY time daily open)
Aqua lines - Top/bottom of phase from pivot (ADR(20) used)
Red lines - 38.2 and 61.8 fibs

I'll delete this post in a few hours as to not take away from the original intend of this thread.
This is what I use for pivots. I draw the phase border lines and fibs "by hand".
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 SDX-TzPivots.mq4   23 KB | 470 downloads
  • #169
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:17pm Oct 5, 2010 3:17pm
Quoting CanuckCT
Here is what I think you can follow as a set of rules....

Each day there are two lines on your chart....a pivot and a sentiment....
Thank you very much for explaining in detail. Appreciate very much.
  • #170
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:08pm Oct 5, 2010 4:08pm
Quoting CanuckCT
Hi Squalou,
Given that the base level is now a calculation, I was surprised that it only works with EU and GU. Should it work with other pairs?
Cheers
CanuckCT

i had locked the indi to only EU and GU as these where the only ones for which we initially had figures.
But now that we have formulas, we can apply them to any instrument, of course.
At least for the Phase levels and Ranges.

However, i don't think we can apply OldDog's BO/Targets formulas, as these where specifically "optimized" for EU.

i'll "unlock" the indi and post a new version.

SQ
  • #171
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:11pm Oct 5, 2010 4:11pm
Agree....we may be able to optimize for other pairs. I'd like to try EJ.

Cheers
CanuckCT

Quoting squalou
i had locked the indi to only EU and GU as these where the only ones for which we initially had figures.
But now that we have formulas, we can apply them to any instrument, of course.
At least for the Phase levels and Ranges.

However, i don't think we can apply OldDog's BO/Targets formulas, as these where specifically "optimized" for EU.

i'll "unlock" the indi and post a new version.

SQ
  • #172
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:17pm Oct 5, 2010 4:17pm
Quoting CanuckCT
Agree....we may be able to optimize for other pairs. I'd like to try EJ.

Cheers
CanuckCT
Maybe it's a good Idea to optimize it for EURUSD only for now

and when

it's near perfect, think about other pairs as extra. Heck, If you can

surely sweep pips from single pair, I don't think you need anything else.

IMHO.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #173
  • Oct 5, 2010 6:19pm Oct 5, 2010 6:19pm
The internet is a wonderful resource....how did we ever get along without it.

Attached is an article from Fibonacci Trader...it's old, but relevant.

It talks about creating fib zones to trade in and around.

I'm attaching two indicators...one is an exe file but the other is not and it does the same calculations.

My request is the creation of an indicator that will draw these zones by selecting either daily, weekly or monthly data.

Me thinks this is a way to create a baseline using fibs.

The pic below shows the the levels based on prior day. If we use monthly data, it will be based on prior month...and I bet one of those lines can be our base value.

Attached Image


What's old is new again.

Cheers
CanuckCT
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf FTJ14.pdf   524 KB | 759 downloads
File Type: mq4 Fib SR.mq4   3 KB | 649 downloads
File Type: ex4 HPFZ.ex4   15 KB | 534 downloads
  • #174
  • Oct 5, 2010 6:30pm Oct 5, 2010 6:30pm
Now that I am able to post again (thanks Twee for taking the time to listen to my side of situation and agree that I did indeed have a case against the suspension and infraction), here is my version of an indicator that I have been working on during the course of these threads.

Please note that my indicators, especially in situations like this where there are several possible routes, may look complicated but this is only because I try to provide for all possabilities which means needing lots of options.

For those who simply want to see 'suggested' trades based on OldDogs calculator and the BaseLine calculation provided in the spreadsheet earlier, just place the indicator on your chart with the defaults. (NB: Remember this is designed for FXPro but should work similarly on any GMT+3 broker, but your figures may be different. There is nothing we can do to get around this.)

Now for those who want to things a little differently, take a look at the options and apply a little comon sense to what they should be set to.
Eg: There is a different way to calculate the baseline using various Fib lines (which I personally believe is more likely to be the 'Bobbi way'). To use this method set FibBaseline=TRUE.
If you want to specify a Phase Range instead of calculating it, set PhaseOverride=# of pips (such as 127 if you think the range should still be 127 this month)
If you want to use (what I believe is) Bobbi's calculator results instead of OldDogs, set ODCalcs=FALSE. NB: Although I believe my version of Bobbi's calc are close, there are situations where they will not match to within 1 pip.

Other options include the ability to turn various bits on (TRUE) and off (FALSE) and all are logically named ...
ShowPhases - the various phase lines
ShowDailyLines - the results of the calculated levels either OD's or Bobbi's
ShowComment - a big nasty comment with all the claculations
ShowCalcTrades - 'suggested' trades, color coded based on sentiment. 'Good' means 'with the sentiment', 'Bad' means against it.

Finally, the last 3 usefull options are ...
BreakRate - number of pips past a particular line before a trade box is drawn (ie how meny pips must a line be broken by before the trade goes in)
MinimumTP - if a trade results in less than this # of pips profit, the 2nd target line will be used as TP instead of the 1st
SLRate - to show a trade box indicating StopLoss. NB: when these boxes overlap, things can start looking ugly
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Abonacci Pivots7.0.ex4   50 KB | 1,083 downloads
  • #175
  • Oct 5, 2010 6:35pm Oct 5, 2010 6:35pm
Good work guru...as usual.
Cheers
CanuckCT
  • #176
  • Oct 5, 2010 6:40pm Oct 5, 2010 6:40pm
OldDog .. I have a question about your calculations...

We know that the formulae is (a*x)+(b*y) where x and y are close and MV respectively and a and b are contants.

Now, given that the range is variable, shouldn't the constants differ relative to the range?

eg if close if 25pips away from MV, then you will be given a trade worth z pips. But z will be the same regardless of whether the range is 50pips or 150pips. Surely if the range is going to be greater, then the expected trade target should also be bigger?
  • #177
  • Oct 5, 2010 6:54pm Oct 5, 2010 6:54pm
Quoting CanuckCT
I've applied a fib to the NY close, using 1/2 of the 44 day range as the swing. The 161.8 extension would suggest we've met out daily range to the upside. M15 now has inside bar....so that price action has me wary of upside move. A move below 1.3790 and I'll be looking to sell.

We did print a new high for the week....for what that's worth.

Here is my chart.

Cheers
CanuckCT

Attachment
Just another take.
Magenta lines = Weekly Fib
Blue and Red Fibs = Based on previous day's ATR(22)=144/2=72 pips up and 72 pips down from NY close

Will post resulting PA tomorrow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5.10.2010 ny close.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #178
  • Oct 5, 2010 7:22pm Oct 5, 2010 7:22pm
I have similar fibs on mine also.

Cheers
CanuckCT

Quoting BarneyDog
Just another take.
Magenta lines = Weekly Fib
Blue and Red Fibs = Based on previous day's ATR(22)=144/2=72 pips up and 72 pips down from NY close

Will post resulting PA tomorrow.
  • #179
  • Oct 5, 2010 7:23pm Oct 5, 2010 7:23pm
Hi Guru,
Thank you for this great indicator. Does it need any routine (Monthly, daily,..etc.) updates or inputs of Baselines, Phase ranges,..etc. or does thie keep updating itself continuously?
Thanks,

Quoting theGuru
Now that I am able to post again (thanks Twee for taking the time to listen to my side of situation and agree that I did indeed have a case against the suspension and infraction), here is my version of an indicator that I have been working on during the course of these threads.

Please note that my indicators, especially in situations like this where there are several possible routes, may look complicated but this is only because I try to provide for all possabilities which means needing lots of options.

For those who simply want to see 'suggested'...
"As Kids we believe Anything is Possible; the Trick is to never forget it!"
  • #180
  • Oct 5, 2010 7:25pm Oct 5, 2010 7:25pm
Quoting teemo
Hi Guru,
Thank you for this great indicator. Does it need any routine (Monthly, daily,..etc.) updates or inputs of Baselines, Phase ranges,..etc. or does thie keep updating itself continuously?
Thanks,
No updates required. Will update every day and every month forever.

Whether the calculations continue to be relavent day after day and month after month ... that's a different story
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