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  • #10,921
  • Oct 5, 2010 2:36pm Oct 5, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Here are two links regarding this issue (I'm guessing that zero hedge might have a more colorful take on this)...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Strong....html?x=0&.v=1

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...mortgages.html

This could be a dumb question, but are we sure that these loans are to Swiss banks? Couldn't it be a Hungarian or Romanian bank that agreed to take out the loan in a foreign currency?
Not sure I can answer this but my understanding is that as the base currency is Swiss Francs the original debt will be with a Swiss bank.

But the mortgagee will owe a Hungarian bank who will have borrowed Francs from a Swiss bank.

As long as the Hungarian bank doesn't go bust the Swiss bank will be ok.

Of course if all the Hugarian mortgagees default everyone has a problem.

IMHO this is Europes/Switzerlands sub-prime and it'll blow soon. And it's not just E Europe, there are bigger problems in the PIIGS countries.
  • #10,922
  • Oct 5, 2010 2:43pm Oct 5, 2010 2:43pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Here are two links regarding this issue (I'm guessing that zero hedge might have a more colorful take on this)...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Strong....html?x=0&.v=1

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...mortgages.html

This could be a dumb question, but are we sure that these loans are to Swiss banks? Couldn't it be a Hungarian or Romanian bank that agreed to take out the loan in a foreign currency?
Could be either or both mate in reality, I have not really scratched the surface too deep on this issue. Certainly a very valid point you raise and not something a Swiss bank stock holder would be happy to generalize about

I guess though either way it's a painful issue for their exporters. I hope their banks aren't involved however given UBS' history of risk management I am sure they are neck deep in it some how.

The one that interests me in the article is the amount outstanding to non-bank lenders who if anything like in the UK and in Australia are the lending co-ops that buy cheap money OS and then loan it back into their home markets. Only problem is they're often better at selling to Joe public than arbitrage.......

Those types will normally lend directly both due to their size and wanting to compete at an edge over their domestic banks competitors. Wherever the least regulation exists I am sure the most silly buggers has been occurring.

Whoever is left holding the kid for those loans is the one with the continence issues.

Off topic - the AUDNZD trade you've been watching, did you sell that at the 1.30 level or are you still watching it. I am a bit late in the game now but looks like it will make sense with the RBA on the brakes at the moment.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wil...trash-swiss-ec
  • #10,923
  • Oct 5, 2010 2:57pm Oct 5, 2010 2:57pm
Just a thought about some of the political comments mentioned earlier. I think that we are responsible for our own destiny. We make choices for ourselves-be it voting or what career we follow, what education we get etc. I have made choices all my life, even giving up my freedom to serve in the military. Honestly, it sucked at times but I am a big boy and dealt with the sometimes shitty hand that was dealt (usmc).

What I don't need is government creeping in and making decisions for me as a citizen. I know what's best for me. If I screw up-it's on me. That's what many people have died for in this country. To allow me to pursue what makes me happy as long as I don't shit all over people doing it. lol

Now I left a gov job-yes I was payed with taxpayer money-to pursue my own destiny. I'm proud of that and have since gained a whole new respect for private companies etc. Now as far as trading is concerned, I am tired of this nanny state telling me what I can and can't do with my money. I really don't use 50 to 1 leverage, but I detest the thought of being restricted.
I really can't think of one thing the gov is good at regulating. Most things the gov handles are ripe with waste, fraud, abuse.

Now I did not say ALL, there is surely something I can't think of and I do not have all the answers.
I am tired of crooked politicians on both sides selling the same thing to their sheep.

hahahahahaha!!! I went off on a tangent. Sorry Chris.

How about that yen?
  • #10,924
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:40pm Oct 5, 2010 3:40pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Off topic - the AUDNZD trade you've been watching, did you sell that at the 1.30 level or are you still watching it. I am a bit late in the game now but looks like it will make sense with the RBA on the brakes at the moment.
Yup - sold at 1.3023 and have watched my gains evaporate over the last few hours. Might get stopped out, might not... I guess we'll see.
  • #10,925
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:11pm Oct 5, 2010 4:11pm
Quoting InfinitySL
LOL - this again? So I assume that you're smart enough to determine who is smart enough to vote? The landed gentry can guide this nation back to it's heritage of plantations & slaves? It amazes me that people bemoan the "liberal elite" when it is this type of drivel that is true elitism...

"The peasants revolted"...I love the language & implied superiority in these last two posts. Bravo gentlemen, Bravo!
Never said "I was smart enough" or someone "has to be smart enough".

It is pretty simple, you don't pay into the system, you don't get a say in how the money is spent.

We are at a tipping point. And the BS needs to end. A family with 2 parents and 3 kids, doesn't take a vote of 5 to decide if money is spent on toys or the electric bill.

Kudos to Margaret Thatcher for trying. Of course the peasants revolted, they can just get "free govt. money" to pay for their "I refuse to work" life.
  • #10,926
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:25pm Oct 5, 2010 4:25pm
Stock markets are rising while the unemployed keep getting larger. How long can companies profit in this kind of environment? Not too long I would think. In the 30's we saw several countries try to protect themselves at the expense of others. Perhaps Japan was the first one to try and go it alone.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...h-falters.html
  • #10,927
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:28pm Oct 5, 2010 4:28pm
Quoting stewrigh
Not sure I can answer this but my understanding is that as the base currency is Swiss Francs the original debt will be with a Swiss bank.

But the mortgagee will owe a Hungarian bank who will have borrowed Francs from a Swiss bank.

As long as the Hungarian bank doesn't go bust the Swiss bank will be ok.

Of course if all the Hugarian mortgagees default everyone has a problem.

IMHO this is Europes/Switzerlands sub-prime and it'll blow soon. And it's not just E Europe, there are bigger problems in the PIIGS countries.
Would this be the same Hungary that recently hinted that it might not be able to pay of it's debts in the bond markets?

The Swiss are screwed, and rightfully so. I don't trust the neutral anyway. lol
  • #10,928
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:35pm Oct 5, 2010 4:35pm
Quoting clockwork71
Stock markets are rising while the unemployed keep getting larger. How long can companies profit in this kind of environment? Not too long I would think. In the 30's we saw several countries try to protect themselves at the expense of others. Perhaps Japan was the first one to try and go it alone.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...h-falters.html
I am almost wondering if the stock market isn't moving up, in future expections of the Republicans sweeping in November and then the tax cuts being extendd.

And then if the tax cuts are let to expire, the stock market will crash back down to a Dow of around 8,000 again.
  • #10,929
  • Oct 5, 2010 5:03pm Oct 5, 2010 5:03pm
Quoting calderone
Just a thought about some of the political comments mentioned earlier. I think that we are responsible for our own destiny. We make choices for ourselves-be it voting or what career we follow, what education we get etc. I have made choices all my life, even giving up my freedom to serve in the military. Honestly, it sucked at times but I am a big boy and dealt with the sometimes shitty hand that was dealt (usmc).

What I don't need is government creeping in and making decisions for me as a citizen. I know what's best for me. If I screw up-it's...
The saddest part here mate is that those who have worked hard, followed the rules and been good citizens are now watching the purchasing power of their savings evaporate along with the value of their homes as Bernanke and Timmaaayyy debase the USD in a bid to steal what little the middle class have left.

That is perhaps the biggest travesty in all of this. You can't even keep your savings in your own country now without your government working out a way to bleed them from you.

I am in my 30's and have plenty of years ahead of me but for those my parents age who can't just figure they will work another 15-20 years to provide for themselves into their retirement, that's not fair...

I am surprised people aren't in the streets over this in the US. They are across Europe and they aren't getting stiffed half as bad.
  • #10,930
  • Oct 5, 2010 5:21pm Oct 5, 2010 5:21pm
Quoting unlv_tj
I am almost wondering if the stock market isn't moving up, in future expections of the Republicans sweeping in November and then the tax cuts being extendd.

And then if the tax cuts are let to expire, the stock market will crash back down to a Dow of around 8,000 again.
Check out any graph you can find showing the stock market valued in Gold terms and you can see that it isn't really going up at all.

It's falling, it's just denominated in the wrong unit of measurement.

Pretty scary stuff. While this treasury purchase program continues, billions of newly printed money will flow from the primary dealers into the markets chasing yield. Hence the moves up in the US markets from NY open till 11am most days of the past 3-4 weeks. That's when they're buying these treasuries through the POMO program.

This article shows that this Fed program is one of the few sources of fund inflows at the moment (if insiders are selling at these rates, why should fund managers and retail investors be any different - within reason of course):
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ins...-buying-2341-1

I don't think the USD will become monopoly money and everyone should go long log cabins, ammunition and cans of beans - BUT, I do think the USD will continue lower until we see trade protectionism/tariffs brought against the Chinese by the US and the slowdown finally hitting Europe. The Europeans are still trying to remove stimulus from their system in the face of slowing growth. For this reason alone there's still hope for the US while Europe manages to deny they're in more sh#t than a toilet duck.

The chinese can try selling ships to Greece all they want but without the US consumer, a freely floating Yuan would likely end up falling rather than rising as their primary export market closes up shop. If there is anyone left in Washington not asleep at the wheel they need to get all protectionist on China's a$$ asap, you'll here the property bubble explode there from Ohio.
  • #10,931
  • Oct 5, 2010 5:40pm Oct 5, 2010 5:40pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Check out any graph you can find showing the stock market valued in Gold terms and you can see that it isn't really going up at all.

It's falling, it's just denominated in the wrong unit of measurement.

Pretty scary stuff. While this treasury purchase program continues, billions of newly printed money will flow from the primary dealers into the markets chasing yield. Hence the moves up in the US markets from NY open till 11am most days of the past 3-4 weeks. That's when they're buying these treasuries through the POMO program.

This article shows...
This is a truly great post in the fact that it points out that not everything needs to be measured in USD. (or GBP for that matter.) The truth is that all things are really measured in gold once you break it down. And he is right - stocks aren't doing s#$t.

I never really did understand the need to own gold in an environment where the USD goes down. Let's say it implodes.....

Would you rather own gold, or wheat?

Of course during Armageddon, there will be morons gathering gold. But if you have to feed yourself, what are you going to do? Pay a gold coin for wheat? How are you getting your change back? lol

Just a thought.
  • #10,932
  • Oct 5, 2010 5:42pm Oct 5, 2010 5:42pm
Quoting 4xAddict
The saddest part here mate is that those who have worked hard, followed the rules and been good citizens are now watching the purchasing power of their savings evaporate along with the value of their homes as Bernanke and Timmaaayyy debase the USD in a bid to steal what little the middle class have left.

That is perhaps the biggest travesty in all of this. You can't even keep your savings in your own country now without your government working out a way to bleed them from you.

I am in my 30's and have plenty of years ahead of me but for those...
Yep. The Baby Boomers are in deep sh*t. I think we have major issues because of that....

The USA will have to get off the dole. The public is so concerned with what's free, they don't understand that nothing is truly free.
  • #10,933
  • Oct 5, 2010 5:50pm Oct 5, 2010 5:50pm
November Soybeans - great example of a triangle break out....
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  • #10,934
  • Oct 5, 2010 6:09pm Oct 5, 2010 6:09pm
Quoting clockwork71
Would this be the same Hungary that recently hinted that it might not be able to pay of it's debts in the bond markets?

The Swiss are screwed, and rightfully so. I don't trust the neutral anyway. lol
Maybe so, but the reason the Swissie is also regarded as a safe-haven currency has a lot to do with the amount of gold they have in reserve.

Switzerland has the 4th largest gold reserves(after US EU and IMF). The key difference tho is that there aren't nearly as many Swiss francs as there are dollars or Euros, so they have a de-facto gold backed currency.
  • #10,935
  • Oct 5, 2010 6:13pm Oct 5, 2010 6:13pm
Quoting 4xAddict
The saddest part here mate is that those who have worked hard, followed the rules and been good citizens are now watching the purchasing power of their savings evaporate along with the value of their homes as Bernanke and Timmaaayyy debase the USD in a bid to steal what little the middle class have left.

That is perhaps the biggest travesty in all of this. You can't even keep your savings in your own country now without your government working out a way to bleed them from you.

I am in my 30's and have plenty of years ahead of me but for those...
I don't think all the sh** has hit the fan yet, for people to fully know the consequences. Look at how many 20 and 30 years olds in the USA still live off credit cards and have below $0 networth and start having families. This in the blatent face of everything going on.

All in all the American public is so over worked, under-sexed/under-happy, they don't have time to focus on important things.

And by the time the sh** does hit the fan, it will be far too late to do anything about it. My life sucks, I live like a bum, I save every penny I make, I have been programming computers for over 10 years, and work on the weekends STILL to this day washing dishes. Why would I go through all that hell? Because it is better than the hell that I would go through if I didn't do it.
  • #10,936
  • Oct 5, 2010 6:50pm Oct 5, 2010 6:50pm
Quoting stewrigh
Maybe so, but the reason the Swissie is also regarded as a safe-haven currency has a lot to do with the amount of gold they have in reserve.

Switzerland has the 4th largest gold reserves(after US EU and IMF). The key difference tho is that there aren't nearly as many Swiss francs as there are dollars or Euros, so they have a de-facto gold backed currency.
Good point. We should invade.
  • #10,937
  • Oct 5, 2010 6:52pm Oct 5, 2010 6:52pm
Check this out, the CFTC makes FCM's and Brokers announce trading results by the quarter now. I have an account at IBFX that I play with, and they sent me this as part of an email. It's public disclosure I would suppose, so I feel ok to post it here. If not, they'll get over it. And if they don't - I will....

Notice how none of the quarters say 95% losers.
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  • #10,938
  • Oct 5, 2010 7:56pm Oct 5, 2010 7:56pm
Quoting clockwork71
Check this out, the CFTC makes FCM's and Brokers announce trading results by the quarter now. I have an account at IBFX that I play with, and they sent me this as part of an email. It's public disclosure I would suppose, so I feel ok to post it here. If not, they'll get over it. And if they don't - I will....

Notice how none of the quarters say 95% losers.
Hmm.. those are interesting stats indeed. Does every broker have to release that? I wonder if certain brokers have better stats than others?

Here's an explanation (just making this up, have no numbers to back it up) Perhaps the 'ol 95% rule we always hear getting bandied about is "over the long run" (how you define the long run is anyone's guess). So basically the 33% that are profitable in that one quarter...How many of THOSE people are profitable the next quarter? Of course it works the other way too - of the 70% that lost in one quarter, how did they do the next quarter (or for the year?).

You might also wonder, What % of traders were profitable all 4 quarters in a year, how many 3/4, 2/4, 1/4 or 0/4... Also there's the magnitude of profitability -- The guys who were profitable, perhaps they made 10% while the guys who were unprofitable blew up their accounts...Who knows.

All the same, interesting stats and some good food for thought.
  • #10,939
  • Oct 5, 2010 10:58pm Oct 5, 2010 10:58pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Hmm.. those are interesting stats indeed....

Agreed. I know that some months I scraped by and got a .1% return. It's still profitable, but hardly worth writing home about!
  • #10,940
  • Oct 6, 2010 1:39am Oct 6, 2010 1:39am
Quoting InfinitySL

Here's an explanation (just making this up, have no numbers to back it up) Perhaps the 'ol 95% rule we always hear getting bandied about
If I remember correctly, the 95% failure rate was derived a study performed at a futures trading group, in a study done back in the late 80's.

I could look into it further for something more concrete.

But as far as I understand it, that single study has been quoted into infinity and beyond.
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