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vsa with Malcolm

  • #5,221
  • Oct 5, 2010 2:51pm Oct 5, 2010 2:51pm
Quoting tfflyer
UC buy one more time.

Best,
Tom
hi tom,

did you closed your 2nd one ?

cheers... already 70s.. great
  • #5,222
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:01pm Oct 5, 2010 3:01pm
Not yet, if this will come back to BE -> i will close.

Best,
Tom



Quoting bruceli
hi tom,

did you closed your 2nd one ?

cheers... already 70s.. great
  • #5,223
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:14pm Oct 5, 2010 3:14pm
i used dukas' mt4, and today's volume is really very high ?

note: i've checked ibfx daily volumes, and after 5th of july, daily volumes almost triples the left side, so , i left ibfx.

so , what i want to say is that, if we assume , we are at the top, and if the volume abnormally higher, then, i supposed, although today is a green day, the widespread may point weakness...

besides, when i saw Mr Tom's message about Swiss Franc, i checked also daily, and i was shocked. becuase, we are almost at the level of 2-3 years ago, where historical bottom happened... so, what's next :S

cheers..
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  • #5,224
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:21pm Oct 5, 2010 3:21pm
Ok Guys so here why i think we could see another up move tomorrow.

1. We see a huge shakeout today folled by a nice upmove, this was right on a support line/previous market low.

2. After we see large upmove market goes 'sideways' and moves along with reducing volume.

3. also any down move seems to be being defended in the 15860 area.

4. I did label Buyers with a question mark as im not sure, the bar previous is a wide spread up high vol next bar down however the bar down is on considerable volume. Next bar is slightly smaller with smaller vol but still high.....i believe this was 'preliminary buying' before another small down move to buy more.

5. as you can see we do have some old tops to clear above but, there is alot of hV areas below which could act as support or it may be pushed into that to allow more buying. (they are not all on my chart)

It will be intresting to see what happens over asia however ill be asleep by then LOL.
So im looking to some buying and a testing into todays POC for a buy in London. Any SOS will be good.

As always any critisisms are welcome.
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  • #5,225
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:22pm Oct 5, 2010 3:22pm
Quoting tfflyer
Not yet, if this will come back to BE -> i will close.

Best,
Tom
i got it Tom,

meantime, also today's usd-chf volume is higher than at least previous 20 days. even, today volume seems doubled yesterday...

0,9634 was on march of 2008. only 10 pips lower than today's low...

cheers..
  • #5,226
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:22pm Oct 5, 2010 3:22pm
Yes, my blue line on my chart is that level what You are talking.

Best,
Tom

Quoting bruceli
.....

besides, when i saw Mr Tom's message about Swiss Franc, i checked also daily, and i was shocked. becuase, we are almost at the level of 2-3 years ago, where historical bottom happened... so, what's next :S

cheers..
  • #5,227
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:24pm Oct 5, 2010 3:24pm
I am interested to know - is USD economic so bad or so good that price is at the same level like in 2008 ...

We will see

Best,
Tom



Quoting bruceli
i got it Tom,

meantime, also today's usd-chf volume is higher than at least previous 20 days. even, today volume seems doubled yesterday...

0,9634 was on march of 2008. only 10 pips lower than today's low...

cheers..
  • #5,228
  • Oct 5, 2010 3:59pm Oct 5, 2010 3:59pm
Quoting tfflyer
I am interested to know - is USD economic so bad or so good that price is at the same level like in 2008 ...

We will see

Best,
Tom
they have unlimited greens for chinese ....


dow should be at least around 6000... it is still too high... lol
  • #5,229
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:05pm Oct 5, 2010 4:05pm
as i read just few min ago, richies started buying golds of tones even..

and jpmorgan, hsbc opened their special gold rooms again after 90s.

and in 10 years, it can be around 2000 usd

people have the double bottom fear.. so so...

and i only know my1-5-15 min charts..
  • #5,230
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:18pm Oct 5, 2010 4:18pm
Quoting bruceli
i used dukas' mt4, and today's volume is really very high ?

note: i've checked ibfx daily volumes, and after 5th of july, daily volumes almost triples the left side, so , i left ibfx.
IBFX volumes are bigger since they migrated all accounts from 4 digit to 5 digit.
So this is visible and has impact to us on higher TFs, but no more on smaller ones.

Anyway, be aware, and Mal has already told this, that daily (and maybe H4? Not sure) volumes on MT4 brokers are not so much reliable, not so much like esignal.
So, bottom of line, higher TFs aren't so good to be analyzed in MT4, whatever the broker is.

Edit:
I'm supposed to be free for the rest of the week, so I may be around to trade, from tomorrow on - let's see what the market brings us.
  • #5,231
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:39pm Oct 5, 2010 4:39pm
Comapip, malc, thanks for the advice, will be uploading more charts soon.
  • #5,232
  • Oct 5, 2010 4:46pm Oct 5, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting tonirai
IBFX volumes are bigger since they migrated all accounts from 4 digit to 5 digit.
So this is visible and has impact to us on higher TFs, but no more on smaller ones.

Anyway, be aware, and Mal has already told this, that daily (and maybe H4? Not sure) volumes on MT4 brokers are not so much reliable, not so much like esignal.
So, bottom of line, higher TFs aren't so good to be analyzed in MT4, whatever the broker is.

Edit:
I'm supposed to be free for the rest of the week, so I may be around to trade, from tomorrow on - let's see what the...
thanks you very much for this info.. see you tomorrow...
  • #5,233
  • Oct 6, 2010 12:35am Oct 6, 2010 12:35am
Good morning every one :
this morning gold prices jumped to all time historical price against dollar 1349.7 $/oz . it has moved up more than 100 pips in Asian session .
i think this is a major sign of dollar weakness .
  • #5,234
  • Oct 6, 2010 1:07am Oct 6, 2010 1:07am
Hey guys,

Looking at the E/U 30 mins here. Trying to figure whats goin on in the background over the asian session. Finding it hard to pick out whether it is accumulating or distributing..... ?
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  • #5,235
  • Edited 2:35am Oct 6, 2010 1:15am | Edited 2:35am
So far sellers come at the top of the range, buyers come in at the bottom. A bit more selling pressure than buying. But that's maybe to get better prices. EU daily suggests it wants to go higher, but there still is a possibility of a test of 1.378.

Anyway, the trend is clearly UP, so no selling for me.

Update: GU is being a total @$$; waiting for US session.
  • #5,236
  • Oct 6, 2010 3:41am Oct 6, 2010 3:41am
Here are a couple of ways that VSA can be confusing. please help shed some light on these setups so we don't fall for them. here are my humble readings-

1. looked like selling: 1. price squat on slightly less vol, followed by 2. pin bar type of candle (not an upthrust bar) at 3. TL.

REALITY: hidden selling absorbed. tricky... (it got me)
REMEDY: keep lower TFs in view at all times to watch for NS


2. ND, NS, ND, NS....typical daytime market.

REMEDY: play the range or ignore EST 3pm-6pm signals. come back later & note the progression of NS vs ND after say ~7pm identify NS or ND as, prefer with-trend signal.
BETTER: enter only at prev. tops or bottoms with VSA as confirmation
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  • #5,237
  • Edited 5:38am Oct 6, 2010 3:53am | Edited 5:38am
My 14th VSA Trade (Live).

Executed Order.
EUR/USD - Short
Date: 5-Oct-10
Time: Alpari 11:00
Entry: 1.3768
Initial SL: 1.3798 (-30 pips) (Near Recent Upthrust )
Initial TP: 1.3738 (+30 pips)

Reasons:
Note the Red vertical line, the bar after this line is my signal bar.
Background Weakness. 3 UpBars with Buyer Climax HighVol Stop Vol, UpThrust, No Demand (doji).
Enter on Break Low of ND.
Hull green on M15, Hull green on H1.


Attached:
M15
Entry (small Yellow horizontal line),
Initial SL (small Red horizontal line),
Initial TP (small Green horizontal line).

I will inform of exit result no matter it is profit or loss.

Final Result.
The above order hit SL: 1.3798 ( -30 pips).

** Please comment on analysis.

Trade Management:
- Actually thought trade going my way, enter extra lot. Wrong move!
- Just hit SL.

Please comment on how to improve this trade ??
Why I am seeing Sellers ??
How come I did not see the Buyers here ??
Where are the Buyers ??
How to differentiate the Buyers versus the Sellers ??

Thanks,
FB.

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  • #5,238
  • Oct 6, 2010 3:54am Oct 6, 2010 3:54am
I could be wrong but it looks like sellers coming in around 1.3865-70 area

30 min unable to close above 1.3860

should be good for maybe 50, we'll see..

tight stop, bull far from dead.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Mind over matter..I don't mind and you don't matter.
  • #5,239
  • Oct 6, 2010 4:00am Oct 6, 2010 4:00am
ok only a learner here too but i see the red candle after your first down arrow has high vol and closes in the middle, still buyers. then prices is supported off the low of that bar.
  • #5,240
  • Oct 6, 2010 4:22am Oct 6, 2010 4:22am
Quoting djarum11
Here are a couple of ways that VSA can be confusing. please help shed some light on these setups so we don't fall for them. here are my humble readings-

1. looked like selling: 1. price squat on slightly less vol, followed by 2. pin bar type of candle (not an upthrust bar) at 3. TL....
What looked like selling might have been stops or whatever that were at s/r area. Took a while to absorb them to continue. You even had a trendline there. High volume is necessary to break through supply/demand areas because usually orders are pending there.

Lower TFs can give you a more detailed and sometimes messy view of what's going on. Today's GU was just stupid. Went long for 5 pips each time... Anyway, the best entry, not knowing what would happen after, was the very bottom of the chart. Relatively low risk, about 30 pips stop, 50 pip initial target. For me at least.
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