What's it all about, Alfie?

I know, I have started a number of threads with different systems.

My trading has improved with each attempt and I am consistently profitable at present.

The open forum allowing feedback and input from traders is invaluable.

So, here we go again. Maybe we can take things to another level once again.

This is very neat and clean. Thanks to guernica for tip on the alf indi. I've never seen anything quite like it.

Previously I was relying on an ema channel, a 21 sma and an 8 ema to identify trends, entries and exits. Alf does away for the need for all of that, and gives more precise signals.

Originally this thread was started on systems, but I don't think it is quite ready yet. We'll call journals home for a while...

Feel free to post. Welcome input, feedback, comments....

This is not a scalping system, there is no reason that I see that someone couldn't adapt it for scalping, but I am looking for short, medium and long term positions.

I like to mark the main trend on the weekly chart so that it bleeds through to the day chart. I do this by finding where price action closes above alf for long or below alf for short and placing a color coded rectangle over the area, dark red for short and dark blue for long. This shows a color field on lower time frames.

There are two entry signals using alf and confirming with macd. I like to check out obv also just to make sure there is volume in the right direction. There is a 200ema on the template. I like to just keep an eye on it as it acts as strong s/r. If I look at lower time frames I look for proximity to the 200ema and also the Wood pivots, and other s/r. Just try to see if there are clues, maybe a pattern is developing, or a trendline is being tested. Whatever. But the main signal is alf/macd.

entries long:
1. in a blue field when pa closes above alf or has pulled back to alf and touched alf and then closed up and macd and signal line have crossed up. Obv confirms. (continuation)
2. in a red field if alf turns up and pa action closes above alf and macd
confirms. Obv confirms. (reversal)

exits long: (I open 2 positions)
in blue or red field
Initial stop on entry for both positions is just below alf or the previous candle so if that is too
much risk I might pass up entry for that trade.
1st position after 25 pips or more. stop for 2nd position placed b/e +
spread.
2nd position trailing stop follows alf - spread.

For short just the reverse of long...

That's pretty much it.

The 1st gif is a forward test of EU on the day chart on the simulator that shows how the trades look. The 2nd gif is the weekly chart with the alf crossings marked.

I have been trading micro with excellent results.

I don't know everything. Learning everyday. But this is the best yet. Let's see where it goes.

Not precise enough yet for an ea but it could be ready at some point if Taiyakixz is willing. I think the problems we ran into with bad signals during consolidations with the original Jivadragon may be absent or at least greatly minimized with alf. Time will tell. No stone unturned...

hello, excuse me but color fiels does not appear, is an indicator missing
thanks

Hi, no indi missing.
that I do manually on the weekly. It will be different for each pair.

erm,what time frame for this system?

Greetings.
I mark trend using alf on the weekly
Trade on the day chart.
Look for at least 25 pips for first target...
try to catch the big one....
I'll trade anything!!!
lately USDTRY has been fantastic. margin a little costly, but well worth it...USDMXN very good too. Never thought I would be comfortable trading exotics, but they can be great.
NZDUSD has come through, and so has EURCHF...
got bounced out of GU a few times so a little too volatile for me right now...

What do you consider confirmation on OBV?

Thanks

OBV takes some getting used to. It's very subtle but once you get familiar with it is very very useful.
If there is a divergence that would make me hesitate to jump in even if it looks like a big move is about to begin. Which means if price is going up and obv is going down.
Or if recent high for price is higher than last high but obv recent high is less than previous obv high.

There is no exact value like oversold/overbought etc, just an eyeball estimate of how things match up. Is the money following the move? Follow the money.

this system is good!
u can earn profit of 150 to 400 in 1 week easily if theres a big move,
can add multiple trade when it cross alf and come back,works great^^

The second picture's red line means it come down to alf and enter again after go backadd 1 more trade again. Issit like this in the rule?

It is a good system, isn't it!!
I am amazed at how simple it really is.
All those Wood pivot lines on the day chart can get confusing. I usually delete the indi if I am looking at day or week. I like to check Wood pivot on lower time frames. I watch the 15 min a lot.

No really hard and fast rules at this point. If it were an ea in the development everything would have to be pin-point precision. But we are manually trading right now and learning as we go.
Whatever works and can be repeated can become part of a strategy.

By the way, anyone who can trade USDTRY with their broker account might want to check it out. IF USDTRY breaks support and it seems highly likely within the next little while, it's not like USD is about get stronger anytime soon, there is a 3000 pip drop possible without any support at all.

Q1.What stop loss you use?
because (picture1),it went back very high and drop back and it make me lost 89 pips

picture 2 is something we should watch out,rite?
obv turn up,macd still down,pa to alf still a little space,it might be reversal.

In the end, it amazed me again and again,
I played 6 Trade and earned over 600~700 pips.
Thats amazing!

yes, that I have been watching and it appears to be consistent.
say in blue zone alf turns down and pa closes below, look at macd does it confirm? turning down, crossing, etc, what about obv, losing money? most likely not a retrace but the start of a reversal. alf turning down is major event, alf isn't volatile like other indis, now its up now it's down, when alf turns it's a major event and if everything else is in line, then blue zone is getting ready to turn red...

I am really excited about this. Let's see how consolidations are dealt with. Almost any system no matter how crude or inaccurate can show nice profit in big trending market. It is the consolidations and false signals that kill the trader. I think we have the right combination of pa, trend finder (alf), and supportive indis to keep us out of consolidations.

I follow 20 different pairs so if some are consolidating I can just let them work it out and trade something else that is trending.

Happy to see you appreciating the potential here. Welcome aboard.

On that bad entry short, I wouldn't have entered short there. After such a huge move down there is bound to be some consolidation and maybe even a retrace, also you seem to have spotted the obv divergence and alf flattening out. All signs not to enter a trade there.
A big part of success is learning to wait for the right signals. If the strategy is good we can have faith in it. We won't feel like we have to get in right now because maybe we are going to miss a move and then pay the price for uncontrolled impulsive trading.
That is why I watch so many pairs looking for just the right entries. This is the day chart we are trading.

There's the weekly of USDTRY. Sitting on support. A break below means 3000 pips. Not all in one day of course. But that could be great fun over the course of several weeks. Any US QE would be like a trap door opening.. It's fair to expect some retracing before a descent. sitting on strong support this is also the 200ema, doesn't show on my chart here (not enough data in the history probably).

Maybe a little over enthusiastic. Seems like the market place is retracing or stalled in almost every pair. Good time not to enter a trade.
But.... went ahead with short USDCAD. Will probably have to ride out a bit of dd.
Mental stop just above swing high 1.0403
target, support + spread. 1.0105..
Most likely will visit 1.0 again at some point.
Didn't pay close enough attention to macd on the 30 m and 1h. If I had I would have seen macd was turning up... and could have waited for a better entry short.
I really don't want to sell another bottom...
Just should have waited to trade anything.
USDCAD is trading sideways for few weeks.
Will hold and count on USD weakness to bring things down eventually.
alf is slightly down and obv not showing signs of big buyers.
that macd should have caught my attention, even on the day macd is pretty far below 0 even though macd has crossed slightly below the signal.
just not the best entry I could have waited for, just impatience.
Impatience can be expensive. Will wait and see.

>>>2010/10/04 05:52:58 USD/CAD TECHS: We Are Looking to Sell Rallies at 1.3400<<<
Came over the news wire.
I don't see the pair retracing that far...

USDCAD consolidating a bit.
Failed at the trend line for the 4th time.
So let's see.
A poor entry but the trend is down. The benefit of trading only with a trend. Even is if the entry is not quite right, the trend will continue at some point.
We're not there yet, but looks okay so far.
US data in 7 mins.

update:
entered short too early,
riding out dd
always a little nerve-racking
butting up against resistance trend line 3rd or 4th test
main trend down...

update
okay!!
London turned it around
Again the benefit of trading with the major trend.
Even if the entry isn't quite right on, eventually it will come around..
I'm not getting the party hats out yet, but this is a good start to the right direction...

update
back to where we started pretty much
looking for a drop to 8/5/10 low and then 4/21/10 low
still no party hats just yet.
Forex can do anything...
But looking very good.

i am still waiting wuth u
gl