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Nanningbob 4h trading system ver. 5.0

  • #2,581
  • Oct 2, 2010 7:08pm Oct 2, 2010 7:08pm
Quoting odysseus11
toothman,
I believe if you set the input AlertsOnCurrent=TRUE the alarm will go off if the TMA band is breached the moment that it happens. If set to false it only goes off if price CLOSES above/below the band, which I personally have found to be stronger signals.

Bob, excellent using the MA and entering only after it turns, to further eliminate the chance of entering the wrong direction at a run.

The important parameter with the TMA indi is the ATR setting...watch it visually at settings u can play with (higher value = further out bands)...the...
Thanks ody, I'll try it.
  • #2,582
  • Oct 2, 2010 7:09pm Oct 2, 2010 7:09pm
Quoting Radio
not sure that I completely understand the new 6.0 but bob said use #5 which is entry on a 1x3 cross...on my "test" demo I loaded the new indicator and made a template for it. the foreground is red so I will not get confused I guess. Looking for a sell here on EU. also have loaded the #5 on eg, euchf, nu, uj, au, eucad, uscad, euaud, ej, uschf....
http://i688.photobucket.com/albums/v...tronaut/10.gif
Please remember this is just something new I spotted last week. The idea is only about 4 or 5 days old so give it time to be learned (for Steve thats learnt)
  • #2,583
  • Oct 2, 2010 7:15pm Oct 2, 2010 7:15pm
Quoting SWelsh
I was turned on to Bob's system by a trader I trust and I am fascinated by it. I have tested his system for over a month and have actually traded a similar system quite successfully since 6/1/10 (real money). I understand the entry but I am confused about exit. If I get into trouble, should I use the 2.4.2.4 method or the 1.1.3.3 method of re-buying? And I've noticed that sometimes there are losing trades reported. Is there a point where you stop using 2.4.2.4 or 1.1.3.3 and just take a big loss? I have searched the thread and can't find the answer....
I explain the 2.4.2 but I use the 1.1.3. Your DD is lower with the 1.1.3 and it is easier to recover. Yes there are times you take the loss. I just did finally decided I am not going to fight the EURO resurgance. Fundamentally I saw no end to this run soon so I took my losses. The problem I was having is the whole market is running and that is extremely unusual. I am used to having a currency or two run every month but the profits from other trades were offsetting the losses. That did not happen the last 10 days so I ate it. I have had to do that 3 times in the last year but his one was the nastiest.
  • #2,584
  • Oct 2, 2010 7:24pm Oct 2, 2010 7:24pm
Everyone testing the new TMA bands variant to Bobs system, I want to point out a nuance to the TMA indi that MUST be taken into account that does not occur on BB...

The TMA bands *DO* shift over time in reaction to the pricing. To say they repaint is not accurate, and the creator of the TMA bands indi (Mladen) is a genius and will flip out if you tell him it repaints - it doesnt, but it shifts somewhat as prices change. And in truth, on a 4H TF and with the cycle input set high (I think the default is 56) the bands curve after-the-fact only modestly not severely, so it is not a deal-killer, but something to be aware of. The fact is, in hindsight after the bands have shifted slightly with the pricing, the bands will look 100% perfect and like the holy grail, when in fact in real time it will take a pretty severe price deviation to cause a band piercing if u have the ATR setting at pretty far out as it should be, THEN when the price reverses direction the past bands WILL adjust and curve toward the new direction and it will look like there was a much more clear signal than their was in real time when it happened. Those of you who have used the COG indicator will know exactly what I am talking about - but that indi DOES repaint, and radically so. This one with the right settings just adjusts but in a slow and slight manner, nothing that should cause a problem in actual real time trading use - has worked amazingly well for me.

Having said all that, I have personally found the TMA piercings on 4H TF with long cycle length to be nothing short of amazing regardless, and if you just use that indi as one component as Bob explains, I think it may well become an improvement. As Bob says, time will tell, but it has worked for me for a couple months now - I had it running as an overlay on the 5.3 system and it literally DID keep me out of many of the DD plagued trades that nearly broke several people (and even the ones I did take I got at a true extreme and got out with great profits at the midline), and I think it *WILL* allow us to see lower DD and therefore be able to use lower leverage ultimately and used with a breakout system too.. I guess one final word of caution is that because the past bands adjust, backtests are not 100% reliable. This needs to be forward tested.

Odysseus
forexfusiondotcom
  • #2,585
  • Oct 2, 2010 7:30pm Oct 2, 2010 7:30pm
Quoting odysseus11
Everyone testing the new TMA bands variant to Bobs system, I want to point out a nuance to the TMA indi that MUST be taken into account that does not occur on BB...

The TMA bands *DO* shift over time in reaction to the pricing. To say they repaint is not accurate, and the creator of the TMA bands indi (Mladen) is a genius and will flip out if you tell them it repaints. And in truth, on a 4H TF and with the cycle input set high (I think the default is 56) the bands curve after-the-fact only modestly, so it is not a deal-killer, but something to...
Good explanation. MA indicators are that, moving, that is not repainting a whole different concept. When you use indicators on higher TF the signals are still valid at the time because by the time they change you are done with the trade. That the positions have changed a week later is irrelevant because it no longer matters. The signal is given, price breaks through the MA or BB line and the trade is commenced for better or worse. We have had this debate before.
  • #2,586
  • Oct 2, 2010 8:13pm Oct 2, 2010 8:13pm
Quoting nanningbob
I explain the 2.4.2 but I use the 1.1.3. Your DD is lower with the 1.1.3 and...
I have been testing the GBPJPY since 2008 and have been able to get out of trouble effectively (GBPJPY is my favorite). But regarding your post, if I re-buy using the 1.1.3, buying every 200 pips, at what point do I take the loss? If I get to the 3rd level, that's 600 pips. Do I get out at the 4th level (800 pips) or do I close my first trade and keep buying? This is where I am most unsure.
  • #2,587
  • Oct 2, 2010 8:25pm Oct 2, 2010 8:25pm
Quoting odysseus11
Everyone testing the new TMA bands variant to Bobs system, I want to point out a nuance to the TMA indi that MUST be taken into account that does not occur on BB...

The TMA bands *DO* shift over time in reaction to the pricing. To say they repaint is not accurate, and the creator of the TMA bands indi (Mladen) is a genius and will flip out if you tell him it repaints - it doesnt, but it shifts somewhat as prices change. And in truth, on a 4H TF and with the cycle input set high (I think the default is 56) the bands curve after-the-fact only modestly...
Thanks for that ody. For those interested, run this on the strategy tester and you can watch the extent of shift on the bands. Not that much, I agree.
  • #2,588
  • Oct 2, 2010 9:44pm Oct 2, 2010 9:44pm
To make sure everyone understands we will not be changing the 5.0 strategy but those that are interested in a USA strategy we will be calling 6.0 we will start a new thread after all the EAs for that system test out and we have some test data. But I did think the TMA would help this system. So please do not get confused by this new data.
  • #2,589
  • Edited 1:27am Oct 3, 2010 1:14am | Edited 1:27am
Quoting Toothman
Thanks for that ody. For those interested, run this on the strategy tester and you can watch the extent of shift on the bands. Not that much, I agree.
Well, either I have to be negative Nancy or I am just not using this properly. At first glance, I was like wow! Then I ran the LFH simulator on it and watched the bands shift.

Well, 'not that much' isn't a phrase that I would probably use. It seems to match almost exactly with the existing system from what I have tracked. I have reviewed about 10 different currencies from several months back to a few years back on some. On the big runs, it seems to not help any if I am applying the rules properly.

1. Once price breaks upper/lower band then set on proper EA.

2. Once 2x7 cross occurs take respective trade etc..

3. TP (40 pips, 10 pips???)

Here is a chart attached on EURUSD since this last run and the red lines are where the price exceeded the band originally and then price came back down and 'violated' the 7MA for short entries.

This matches up almost exactly with my other indicators?

I guess I need some clarification.

As far as 'repainting' or not, this is one of those tomatoe/tomato--potatoe/potato debates. Regardless, the thing is not in the same condition it was when you made the trade.. As a trader you need to be aware of that...

Oh, something else I noticed that seems to making a big difference. The Squalou version of the MACD doesn't match the original MACD from 4.0 system (which I believe we all knew), but you will find that the regular MACD would have kept you out of some serious issues.

Some months we will lose. I am trying to figure out how to trade those darn breakouts via trendline (ala David) or BB breakouts. Hedging isn't a bad idea if you can limit your stops, but it seems if you are back in ranging markets you will lose quite a bit.

Who knows where this EURO will go! 2.00!!!

EDIT: Red MA = 7, YELLOW MA = 2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We are our own best indicator.
  • #2,590
  • Oct 3, 2010 1:22am Oct 3, 2010 1:22am
One thing that seems to work better, is to wait for the 2MA to come outside of the bands first. From reading the EA, it seems to not be setup for this, but maybe that is what is supposed to happen?

If you have LFH, go back to October 22 - 25th 2008 or so on a few currencies. You will see what I mean.
We are our own best indicator.
  • #2,591
  • Oct 3, 2010 1:42am Oct 3, 2010 1:42am
Here is the AUD/USD from this last month.

This is considering that the 2MA broke outside the band, then price came through the 7MA. I imagine due to the trajectory that just price breaking the band would have been about the same.

You can see that this is very similar to what we alread did.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: test2.jpg Size: 153 KB
We are our own best indicator.
  • #2,592
  • Oct 3, 2010 5:56am Oct 3, 2010 5:56am
Quoting nanningbob
Please remember this is just something new I spotted last week. The idea is only about 4 or 5 days old so give it time to be learned (for Steve thats learnt)
I am from South Carolina so learnt I get....so let's study on it for a bit.
  • #2,593
  • Oct 3, 2010 6:24am Oct 3, 2010 6:24am
Quoting SWelsh
I have been testing the GBPJPY since 2008 and have been able to get out of trouble effectively (GBPJPY is my favorite). But regarding your post, if I re-buy using the 1.1.3, buying every 200 pips, at what point do I take the loss? If I get to the 3rd level, that's 600 pips. Do I get out at the 4th level (800 pips) or do I close my first trade and keep buying? This is where I am most unsure.
L1 is 0, L2 is around 200, L3 is around 400. I usually will take my loss around 4-500 depending on how I think the market is going and look for my best spot to enter my new L3 or what I call L4. The object is to limit your loss at 4-500 pips. I rarely go more than 500 on a trade. The purpose is to not get into martingale situations where you are endangering your account or severly damaging it. It is a line in the sand saying thats it I am not going any deeper. My experience has been that if I do that then, yes I take some losses, but I can recover quickly from them. You should never be over 600 pips in the hole, if you are, you are just afraid of taking losse and shouldnt be trading.Twice now in the last year I have felt the market was just out of control and I took a big loss but all the other times they were calculated with the profits I was making. This month happen to be the second time I have done that just take the loss and sit out. I went to Bei Hai and now I am back getting ready for the new USA regs. I have definitely decided not to go with a foreign company now after I felt I was badly taken advantage of my FXSOL UK. So that is my position. Dont martingale, take your losses when needed and if the market is crazy drop out and take a break until it settles down again.
  • #2,594
  • Oct 3, 2010 7:34am Oct 3, 2010 7:34am
Quoting bluemele
Well, either I have to be negative Nancy or I am just not using this properly....
Some months we will lose. I am trying to figure out how to trade those darn breakouts

Here's how I may deal with those "darn" breakouts. I may trade this TMA indicator only with the trend. When TMA lines are flat or angled up, only look for buy setups. When TMA lines are flat or angled down, only look for sell setups. During a long strong trend like the current AUD/USD run, if you were only looking to buy(since TMA lines were flat or angled up) there were two setups (price and 7MA broke the bottom TMA line) that would have pocketed 100 pips each if you were using a straight 100TP/100SL. There were no more buy setups the rest of the run so no harm done by not trading.
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  • #2,595
  • Oct 3, 2010 9:00am Oct 3, 2010 9:00am
[quote=bluemele;4067159]Yes, funny how you think something painful makes you money in the end.

I was being aggressive (usually not the case for me) and it has cost me this month, but I will make it back. The reason I did so well with NB 4.0 was that I stuck to the rules of the meter signal and the minimum ReEntries. I noticed on this system the focus was to take more Secondaries contingent upon the BB.
---
Can you post NB 4.0 here or the link.

Thanks,

Edd
  • #2,596
  • Oct 3, 2010 10:46am Oct 3, 2010 10:46am
Quoting Toothman
Some months we will lose....
Ok, I still don't understand, because this is my logic. Please don't take this as criticism, but I don't 'get it'.

You take the trades WITH the trend. If you look at the attached, your 2nd entry doesn't break the bands and the TMA (which I am guessing stands for triple moving average?) is FLAT, but then you are taking the trade on the break of the upper TMA line?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: test3.jpg Size: 77 KB
We are our own best indicator.
  • #2,597
  • Oct 3, 2010 10:49am Oct 3, 2010 10:49am
[quote=Edd Ganuelas;4067875]
Quoting bluemele
Yes, funny how you think something painful makes you money in the end.

I was being aggressive (usually not the case for me) and it has cost me this month, but I will make it back. The reason I did so well with NB 4.0 was that I stuck to the rules of the meter signal and the minimum ReEntries. I noticed on this system the focus was to take more Secondaries contingent upon the BB.
---
Can you post NB 4.0 here or the link.

Thanks,

Edd
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=169309
We are our own best indicator.
  • #2,598
  • Oct 3, 2010 11:03am Oct 3, 2010 11:03am
I have found that on 4h TF the ATRMultiplier parameter needs to be set at 2.5 not the default of 2.0

If you keep it at the default, you still get too many "false positive" signals.

In actual use for me, a setting of 2.5 keeps me out of many strong-trend trades (such as most of those AUD/USD trades) and the ones it DOES take u only take on a strong close well outside the bands, and then do a TP at the midline.

That how I have been using it and it HAS keep me out of runs in real-life trading. Try looking at it with 2.5 setting

Odysseus
forexfusiondotcom
  • #2,599
  • Oct 3, 2010 11:19am Oct 3, 2010 11:19am
Quoting odysseus11
I have found that on 4h TF the ATRMultiplier parameter needs to be set at 2.5 not the default of 2.0

If you keep it at the default, you still get too many "false positive" signals.

In actual use for me, a setting of 2.5 keeps me out of many strong-trend trades (such as most of those AUD/USD trades) and the ones it DOES take u only take on a strong close well outside the bands, and then do a TP at the midline.

That how I have been using it and it HAS keep me out of runs in real-life trading. Try looking at it with 2.5 setting

Odysseus...
Ok, I just ran it on 2.5 and it looks a bit better on about 70% of the runs, but on the 1st -3rd of Sept, you still end up in that run on AUDUSD.

Unless your TP is < 10 pips.

It doesn't hit the midpoint and there are 3 possible entry points.

My rules were:

TMA 2.5
2MA has to move outside of upper band
2x7 cross for entry.
We are our own best indicator.
  • #2,600
  • Oct 3, 2010 12:07pm Oct 3, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting bluemele
Ok, I still don't understand, because this is my logic. Please don't take this as criticism, but I don't 'get it'.

You take the trades WITH the trend. If you look at the attached, your 2nd entry doesn't break the bands and the TMA (which I am guessing stands for triple moving average?) is FLAT, but then you are taking the trade on the break of the upper TMA line?
Hey Blue,
On both trades price and 7MA breaks the lower bands and the bands are flat or angled up at the time so I'd turn the buy EA on in both spots.
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