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Old Dog Fib Trading - EURUSD

  • #41
  • Oct 2, 2010 8:26am Oct 2, 2010 8:26am
Quoting Old_Dog
Hello,
To help those who are coding the indicators for us over the weekend, this post contains the detailed instructions on computing the phase gap by my method.
Quote
Hello,

To help those who are coding the indicators for us over the weekend, this post contains the detailed instructions on computing the phase gap by my method.
...
Quote
(3) Say it is Sept 1 today and we want the Sept value. Look back over the ATR(44) curve and find the PEAK value over the last 2 months. On my chart with my GMT+3 broker, this occurred on 1 July with a value of 0.0186 or 186 pips.
...
Quote
(5) Now it is a fact that 1 standard deviation contains 68.3% of the data on a bell-curve. So we multiply 186 pips by 0.683 and we get 127 pips as the phase gap.
...
Quote
This can now be added very easily by the coders to indicators, templates and EA's for the benefit of all.

Best regards

Old Dog
veeeeeeeeeery cool Old Dog!
Simplicity for all...

Thanks again, gonna put that into music!


Last step now: how to determine the BaseLevel...

SQ
  • #42
  • Oct 2, 2010 8:38am Oct 2, 2010 8:38am
Thank you Old_Dog for revealing the phase gap mistery!


@squalou
Yes that was it, i put the indie in to wrong folder (again)...sorry.
  • #43
  • Oct 2, 2010 9:15am Oct 2, 2010 9:15am
Quoting Old_Dog
Hello,


This can now be added very easily by the coders to indicators, templates and EA's for the benefit of all.

Best regards

Old Dog
Old Dog .. You're the guy, veeeeeery good. We lack only the BaseLevel, but I saw someone here that has, perhaps it arises. Let the fight. Hugs
  • #44
  • Oct 2, 2010 9:24am Oct 2, 2010 9:24am
here are the Range values as calculated using OldDog fomulae:


2010.10.02 16:11:55 sqAbonacciOldDogLevels-indi-sep-oct2010 EURUSD,H1: OldDogRange for 2010.10.01=99.6p
2010.10.02 16:11:55 sqAbonacciOldDogLevels-indi-sep-oct2010 EURUSD,H1: OldDogRange for 2010.09.01=127.7p
2010.10.02 16:11:55 sqAbonacciOldDogLevels-indi-sep-oct2010 EURUSD,H1: OldDogRange for 2010.08.01=127.7p
2010.10.02 16:11:55 sqAbonacciOldDogLevels-indi-sep-oct2010 EURUSD,H1: OldDogRange for 2010.07.01=127.1p

As you can see, this is very close to Aebab figures for Aug and Sep.
Even July has 127p as well.

Now, depending on how we round these values, we would either get 127,127,127,99, or 127,128,128,100.

Does this matter so much ?

If i keep the actual range value as calculated above instead of rounding it up or down, i get a Phase.8Up for September at 1.3666 (127.7p) instead of 1.3661 (127.0p).
Only 5 pips in 8 phases.
slightly more than HALF a pip per Phase.
Is that so important ?...

I'll keep the exact value for now.


Out of curiosity, i ran it on GBPUSD:

2010.10.02 16:30:59 sqAbonacciOldDogLevels-indi-sep-oct2010 GBPUSD,H1: OldDogRange for 2010.10.01=124.5p
2010.10.02 16:30:59 sqAbonacciOldDogLevels-indi-sep-oct2010 GBPUSD,H1: OldDogRange for 2010.09.01=124.5p
2010.10.02 16:30:59 sqAbonacciOldDogLevels-indi-sep-oct2010 GBPUSD,H1: OldDogRange for 2010.08.01=119.9p
2010.10.02 16:30:59 sqAbonacciOldDogLevels-indi-sep-oct2010 GBPUSD,H1: OldDogRange for 2010.07.01=111.1p
2010.10.02 16:30:59 sqAbonacciOldDogLevels-indi-sep-oct2010 GBPUSD,H1: OldDogRange for 2010.06.01=115.1p


SQ
  • #45
  • Oct 2, 2010 9:35am Oct 2, 2010 9:35am
We must be vigilant if we use the phase 100 pips, we've already reached 100% of phase current and phase if we use 127 pips 11 are still missing.
I believe that the month of October is less volatile than in September. I put two graphs to track which stage is the most acceptable.
  • #46
  • Oct 2, 2010 9:48am Oct 2, 2010 9:48am
stimpy
Temporarily Suspended by Senior Member

yes we did find the formula. well i did....

we never claimed we were from your system.

and the base is 3675 not 3673.

as i sent to you at 16:25 GMT 30/08/10 on skype - you can check

"[30/09/2010 17:02:48] francisfinley: 367# 355# 342#"

which was

3929
3802
3675
3548
3421

in 127 phases - getting to your 82 was done by your hand or is that half the story?


POST #1231 ABBONACCI


If anyone of us have contacts with him, maybe he tell BaseLevel formula.
  • #47
  • Oct 2, 2010 10:23am Oct 2, 2010 10:23am
I have a spreadsheet that calculates the base...it will be several hours before I can get to it to review. Film at 11
Cheers
CanuckCT
  • #48
  • Oct 2, 2010 11:19am Oct 2, 2010 11:19am
Quoting Old_Dog
Cable (GU) is also excellent, as it is the most "technical" of the pairs. I don't know why this is, but it just is.
the most fiat currency, i love it too....our whole economy is finance since manufacturing was outsource,, so that could have the effect of making GU the most technical, just my opinion

nice logic OD regarding being weary of the phase gap calculations. imo bobi's behaviour regarding the switching from 82 to 127 was quite telling
  • #49
  • Oct 2, 2010 11:49am Oct 2, 2010 11:49am
It would be nice when we refine that script, if someone actually

create Screenshot of that template

and point out where are those Buy/Sell TP levels

Too many lines/levels can lead into confusion.

Thank you.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #50
  • Oct 2, 2010 12:01pm Oct 2, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting CanuckCT
I have a spreadsheet that calculates the base...it will be several hours before I can get to it to review. Film at 11
Cheers
CanuckCT

If possible post it to us
  • #51
  • Oct 3, 2010 2:53am Oct 3, 2010 2:53am
Here is a version of the indi that will draw daily BO and TP lines and prices on top of the green/pink OldDog zones...
And it also draws a vert live at "today NY Close" to spot when the show is on...
And the Sentiment in green.

I found out that OldDog's formulaes for low BO2 and Target2 where switched...
I put them back in the correct order.

I also let the EXACT Phase Range values as calculated with ATR(daily,44,last 2 months), meaning 127.7p for august and september, and 99.6p for october.
Although the chart will show the nearest rounded value (128/100).


SQ
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 sqAbonacciOldDogLevels-indi-sep-oct2010.mq4   22 KB | 445 downloads
File Type: ex4 sqAbonacciOldDogLevels-indi-sep-oct2010.ex4   17 KB | 371 downloads
  • #52
  • Oct 3, 2010 3:03am Oct 3, 2010 3:03am
I played a little with OldDog calc:
If you run it with "1 0" and then with "0 1", you 'll see appear the factors of OldDog's formulae for each output...



Inserted Code
>"OldDog Levels Calculator.exe" 1 0 

TRADING LEVELS CALCULATOR.
Version 5.3.2  21/02/2005.
Copyright (C)2005 Old Dog.

     0.67470
0.67430     0.25020
     0.67350


          0.33490
          0.66760
     0.33360
     0.35190
0.67430
     0.29660
     0.33280
          0.32860
          0.33200
Inserted Code
>"OldDog Levels Calculator.exe" 0 1

TRADING LEVELS CALCULATOR.
Version 5.3.2  21/02/2005.
Copyright (C)2005 Old Dog.

     0.32800
0.32550     0.75100
     0.32340


          0.67450
          0.33940
     0.66960
     0.64890
0.32550
     0.69730
     0.66320
          0.66480
          0.65850
As you can see, the low BO2 and TP2 ARE reversed in OldDog's calc.
I don't know why...

OldDog, any thoughts ?


If Aebab's calculator also uses a linear formulae for his outputs, then we should be able to reveal the coefficients with the same method...
I did not try yet...


SQ
  • #53
  • Oct 3, 2010 7:27am Oct 3, 2010 7:27am
Has anyone had any confirmation on how the second and third set of fibs are drawn in a falling market?

Currently, all the fibs are being drawn from top downwards, is this the case when we fall below the starting monthly pivot?

Does it not stand to reason that these should be reversed?

Also.... On another note, does anyone currently in this group re-calculate on an intraday basis?

Some of the best results I have had have come from recalculating on a swing high or low (retraces). This ties in nicely with my current strategy, so I can understand if many have not done it.

Regards

Lee
  • #54
  • Oct 3, 2010 7:33am Oct 3, 2010 7:33am
Hi Lee,

Perhaps you could expand a little on how you use the recalc...something based on recent swing hi and lo does makes some sense as it reflect current price action.

One of the points of the point of the thread is to discuss some options, and that is one we have not yet discussed.

Cheers
CanuckCT

Quoting leemonk
Has anyone had any confirmation on how the second and third set of fibs are drawn in a falling market?

Currently, all the fibs are being drawn from top downwards, is this the case when we fall below the starting monthly pivot?

Does it not stand to reason that these should be reversed?

Also.... On another note, does anyone currently in this group re-calculate on an intraday basis?

Some of the best results I have had have come from recalculating on a swing high or low (retraces). This ties in nicely with my current strategy, so I can understand...
  • #55
  • Oct 3, 2010 7:34am Oct 3, 2010 7:34am
Quoting leemonk
Has anyone had any confirmation on how the second and third set of fibs are drawn in a falling market?

Currently, all the fibs are being drawn from top downwards, is this the case when we fall below the starting monthly pivot?

Does it not stand to reason that these should be reversed?
Makes sense...care to post a pic?
Cheers
CanuckCT
  • #56
  • Oct 3, 2010 7:41am Oct 3, 2010 7:41am
Try prior month hi-lo divide by 10, there is your NY breakout range pip value for the month. Seems arbitrary enough!
Cheers
CanuckCT

Quoting CanuckCT

NYCloseBreakoutFib

There is a 74 pip fib breakout from NY close...initially, this number could be entered manually but someone had provided a suggestion of how it is derived....so can automate this...may want to leave room for that.

A pic of that looks like this

Attachment

Some rules of what to do with this will follow from someone I hope.
  • #57
  • Oct 3, 2010 8:07am Oct 3, 2010 8:07am
Quoting CanuckCT
Makes sense...care to post a pic?
Cheers
CanuckCT

I don't have any pictures or examples to post, but as you will see from Bobi's original post. The only examples given show all fibs being drawn from top to bottom which, as we have moved through this market, is all we have had to do, we have not dropped into a negative phase since he released this.

However, there has been no indication from anyone (at least that I have seen) which says they should or should not be drawn the same way.

Now we are in a new month, we are VERY close (or we were ) to the baseline. We (meaning all of us) are assuming they are drawn the same way, from top down, but is that the case?

It's more a case of just being aware of it than anything else. The answer may already be out there.......

It doesnt make much difference to the lines, but it will to the figures we look for breaks and reversals of.

Regards

Lee
  • #58
  • Oct 3, 2010 8:13am Oct 3, 2010 8:13am
Quoting squalou
Here is a version of the indi that will draw daily BO and TP lines and prices on top of the green/pink OldDog zones...
And it also draws a vert live at "today NY Close" to spot when the show is on...
And the Sentiment in green.
Thank you SQ, I think other parameter should be in place there

"GMT_Offset"

Because on my screen it shown lines at 23 GMT and my broker has

GMT + 2, so those lines should be drawn 2 hours earlier.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #59
  • Oct 3, 2010 8:36am Oct 3, 2010 8:36am
Hi Lee,
Nothing here seems to be related to what this thread is about. Do you post in the wrong place?
Cheers
CanuckCT

Quoting leemonk
Hey,

No surprise that I wasn't the only one going over this on a Sunday

I'll post a chart below. I have squeezed 4 trades into, so I am not sure how it will look.

But in short, when this was first brought to my attention. We discussed that this would be an ideal 'tool' and at first, it wasn't much more than that.

We would take entries based on our own strategy, which is a combination of PA, MA's from EOhater (and continued by Kenneth Lee) and from CII divergance from Madici and Islanders thread.

These three strategies work well as they are...
  • #60
  • Oct 3, 2010 8:38am Oct 3, 2010 8:38am
Out of interest..... anyone read the new updated first post from Bobi?
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