Winsor's 5 Expert Advisors in Real Time

September 27, 2010 Update

After a rise of 330 pips, the EURUSD is currently consolidating. Leah has six open trades with 3 buys, and 3 sells. It is floating with 227 pips profit. Since May 21, 2010, Leah has racked up more than 3,657 pips and is about to break the +4,000 pips profit barrier. See attached chart.

Have fun trading manually boys as I am off to bed.


http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...Leahsept27.png

September 28, 2010 Update

The Conference Board’s sentiment index a.k.a. US Consumer Confidence declined in September to 48.5 and is the weakest level since February 2010. Poor outlook for jobs and wages cause the American consumers to lose confidence in September. Mounting foreclosures, unemployment, lack of confidence will depress the housing market for the rest of the year. Guess what, things are looking pretty bad right now until the next new release.

Remember to take all the fundamental news with a grain of salt as these factors are only for long term trading. It will only take one good new to change the momentum in currency trading; hence, prepare to switch your hat at moment notice. If you are trading on the fundamental, stick to it. As for the technical and the chartists, look at your charts and don’t follow the news. As for me, I follow the news to observe the bigger picture, but I let my automated trading systems take care of the trades. I should stop here as I am seeing double words and letters. The Neo Citran night time is kicking in. Attached is the screen capture of Jasmine’s account. We have three open buy trades with floating profits of $405 and our present equity is $15,360.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...mineSept28.png

September 29, 2010 Update

Gentlemen, I hope that everyone is well. If you have been keeping up with my trading systems, you would notice that Jasmine is attempting to break $5,500 profit barrier and Leah broke the $4,000 profit barrier today. Attached is a snap shot of Leah’s account with 4 EURUSD sell trades with $74 floating profit. As a reminder, 1 pip = $1 for mini account trading.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...Leahsept29.png

September 30, 2010 Update

Hello Boys,

It is amazing as October is here. Below are the trading results of my five expert advisors since May 21, 2010 (4+ months).

Haley = +573 pips, 286 trades
Jasmine = +5,383 pips, 394 trades
Leah = +3,949 pips, 345 trades
Mellisa = -2,575 pips, 280 trades
Sienna = -794 pips, 536 trades

If you haven’t downloaded my software, below is the link again. The installation takes 30 seconds.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...EX_dot_COM.zip
1) Download the zip file onto your desktop
2) Unzip the file and follow the README text file.

The MQL5 automated trading championship 2010 competition will commence on October 4th and will end on December 24th 2010. I am not participating in the competition because I don’t think that it is safe to submit my codes. Let’s see how my five software compared to the champion in terms of pips gain. As you are aware, I am not a big fan of compounding returns. I have done it here where I took $500 and turn it into $46.9 trillion after 33,648 trades. It is not real as I have not seen a forex trader who started with $500 and is richer than Warren Buffett.

http://www.myfxbook.com/strategies/c...compounded/272

I understand that it is boring to target only 35% return per year. Making money should be boring. If it is too exciting, it is gambling and not trading.

As a reminder to the new followers, there is a quick reference guide to the five trading system.

Haley trades GBPUSD, max 6 trades, max SL 120 pips, max TP 280 pips
Jasmine trades EURUSD, max 6 trades, max SL 100 pips, max TP 260 pips
Leah trades EURUSD, max 7 trades, max SL 100 pips, max TP 240 pips
Mellisa trades USDCHF, max 10 trades, max SL 120 pips, max TP 260 pips
Sienna trades EURUSD, max 8 trades, max SL 120 pips, max TP 280 pips

October 1, 2010 Update

It is rather uncanny that Jasmine trading system is on fire. It is attempting to break the +6,000 pips profit. First it was the stock market bubble, then came the real estate bubble, and now Jasmine trading system is rising without any retracement. Words of warning, what goes up quickly will also go down quick. My target is only 35% per annum and anything beyond that is a bonus. Don’t expect Jasmine to go up forever without going through some drawdown in the future.

Trade with wisdoms.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...asmineOct1.png

This is where I'd be taking a little profit off. If you take a little at each new high water mark, eventually you might be able to pull your initial funds out without shrinking the account. Of course your compounding will suffer, but if the unthinkable happens (system goes south, broker goes belly-up, etc.) you'll still be in good shape.

Good work so far.

Billflet,

Thank you for contributing to the thread as you bring credibility to my 5 trading systems. I agree with you, sometime you will need to take some money off the table and put it into your pocket. These five trading systems have a maximum drawdown of 4,000 pips; hence, if a system goes south beyond 4,000 pips then it would automatically shut down. Do you like this fail safe system that I have in place?

Regarding compounding lot size, I am still working on a solution. It is too dangerous; hence, I am still sticking to my goal of 35% return per year.

October 4, 2010 Update

Recent survey estimated that North American has approximately 3.1 millionaires worth $10,700 billion while Asia Pacific and Europe have 3 millionaires worth $19,200 billion. Millionaires are defined as people with net financial wealth of more than one million, excluding their primary residence. Source: A&A Economic Digest, October 2010. I guess that North America is still the best place to live the American dream.

Let’s get back to our trading system Leah. After a long runs up in the EURUSD, it is going through some retracement at the moment. Leah currently has six open trades: two sell and four buy with a maximum stop loss of 100 pips and a maximum take profit of 240 pips. Within the last four months, Leah has surpassed its target of 35% per annum. Leah’s current profit is at 37.8% with 122 floating pips.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...0/LeahOct4.png

October 5, 2010 Update

What else is new? Japan’s central bank has trimmed its interest rates to “near-zero” i.e. between 0% and 0.1% to stimulate the country economy. The IMF worries over the fragile global financial system. The jobs market is slow.

It is funny how you read the head lines. In one day, you get all the bad news, and it does not matter where you read. The next day some good news comes out, and the market rejoices. A good analogy of the market is a baby. A baby cries but he is instantaneously happy when you give him a bottle or pick him up. Are the speculators like babies? Give them one piece of good news, they will drive the market up regardless of previous bad news. I never understood fundamental trading; hence, I will stick to technical trading where I excel.

First it was Jasmine breaking the $5,000 profit and now Leah is on its way. Leah’s account balance stands at $14,172 with $620 floating profit, see attached chart. I like expert advisors because they are not trading signals. They are actual trades, which are not open for interpretation. I understand that some of you don’t want to give up the adrenaline rush of trading. My suggestion is to have two trading accounts: one for automated trading and one for manual trading. This way you can have your cake and eat it too.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...0/LeahOct5.png

October 6, 2010 Update

Leah has been doing phenomenon during the past few weeks. Looking at Leah’s last seven trades, we got six winners and one loser. All of the six winning trades were buy trades and the one losing trade was a sell trade. Jasmine and Leah are trending systems; hence, when there is a continuous raise or fall in the EURUSD, these two systems tend to do extremely well. The total gain for the last seven trades was $1,224 or 1,224 pips, see attached chart. Don’t expect this type of return every month as the market does not trend up every month. Learn to budget and save some pips for the raining months.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...0/LeahOct6.png

October 7, 2010 Update

Today Canada joined the rest of the world in stating that the yuan is under value. Basically, China is keeping its currency artificially low in order to aids its exporters. In August of this year, China’s trade surplus reached in access of $20 billion, a bit lower than its July surplus of $29 billion. This trade surplus is not something new. The US began running a trade surplus with China since 1985. The nation with trade surplus tends to have a saving surplus; hence, there are a lot of Chinese billionaires. In recent weeks both US and Europe have criticized Chinas over its undervalued yuan.

This reminds me of 16th century, where China’s role in the global economy led to the influx of massive amounts of silver from the new world. Back then Europeans bought Chinese goods with silver and much of its originated from the mines of Spanish America. The British wanted to expand trading relation and wanted to use something else beside silver that they could trade for Chinese goods. Opium was the solution and the British was successful in reversing the flow of silver from China. Opium was the silver bullet back then. Do you want to guess on the next silver bullet that is going to bring the down the Chinese economy? 100 points will be rewarded to Gryffindor if you are able to identify the solution.

Enough of the trivia as it will not pay for our new Lexus. Let’s look at Jasmine trading systems. Since May 21, 2010, it made over 400 trades. Roughly, 210 trades were long trades, and 195 trades were short trades. Our system is well balanced as it has a similar number of buy and sell trades. We started our account with $10,000, and today it is at $16,322 trading one mini lot, see attached chart. This is 60% return in four and a half month, see attached chart. When someone makes 20 - 30 trades and is still profitable, he may be lucky. It takes skills and a trading edge to be profitable after 400 trades. There is no secret to our success: our maximum stop loss is 100 pips and our maximum take profit is 260 pips. Repetition is the mother learning: cutting your losses short and letting your profits run.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...asmineOct7.png

October 10, 2010 Update

If you are living in the US, your Thanksgiving Day is in November. In Canada, we celebrate our Thanksgiving in October. Canada is geographically further north than the US; hence, our harvest season arrives earlier than the American harvest season. Previously, we celebrated our Thanksgiving in either late October or early November, but it was moved to the second Monday in October to avoid having Thanksgiving and Remembrance Day (November 11) in the same week. Even though Thanksgiving was declared a national holiday in 1879, it was moved for convenience. Life is all about convenience. For those of you that are still hanging onto your trading indicators, sooner or later, you will move toward expert advisors because of convenience. Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated.

If you don’t see the benefits of expert advisors, you will never use them. Let’s have a look at our Jasmine trading system. We are six open EURUSD buy trades with 146 pips floating profits, see attached chart. Four and a half month ago, we started our account with $10,000, and we now stand at $16,067, a 60% gain. This is 6,000 pips gain, and if it were compounded, it would make a world of different in our results. As you're aware, I am not a big fan of compounding; hence, we will continue our fixed lot trading.

Wishing everyone a Thanksgiving filled with joys, warmth, and happiness.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...smineOct10.png

October 11, 2010 Update

According to the BBC business report, the record low for the dollar is 79.75 yen back in April 1995. Will we see this level again in the next few months? Not if the Bank of Japan has its way. A few weeks ago, BoJ sold the USDJPY in order to weaken the value of the yen vs. the US dollar. It did not work as the USDJPY continued to go north. It is like baseball, where BoJ will get several attempts before striking out.

Due to the Bank of Japan frequent momentary intervention, it is the reason why I don’t trade the USDJPY. I developed 5 expert advisors trading the 3 majors EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDCHF and avoided the USDJPY. I think that 5 expert advisors are enough. In today update, Jasmine is currently in 6 open EURUSD sell trades with a floating profit of +372 pips, see attached chart. Subsystems 1 & 3 got into the sell trades on October 11, 2010 at 04:00 and are floating with +120 pips each. As always, for Jasmine our maximum stop loss is 100 pips, and our maximum take profit is 260 pips.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...smineOct11.png

October 12, 2010 Update

Many of you as wrote to me asking which trading systems to use in your live accounts. So here is my generic answer that I am giving everyone.

My trading style is swing trading, with the principle of cutting my losses short and letting my profits run. Each of my trades is placed with a maximum stop loss of 120 pips and a maximum take profit of 280 pips. With my trading strategy, I only require 45% winning percentage to be profitable in Forex trading. When you see one of my trading systems winning, DO NOT ENTER! My best advice is that after a string of winning trades, a trading system will give some profits back to the market; hence, don't enter during a string of winning trades. Enter only when a system is LOSING or going through some drawdown. During a drawdown, a system has already absorbed some of the losses; hence, you will benefit more on the upswing.

My second strategy to trading is diversification. I have developed five trading systems with low correlation to each other, i.e. all five trading systems are not supposed to win at the same time, and all five trading systems are not supposed to lose at the same time. Using these five trading systems, I create an investment portfolio to generate the highest expected return for a given degree of risk. It is the overall of the portfolio performance that I am going after not the individual trading system. The point is to make money in any market conditions based on the net performance of the portfolio. Avoid picking multiple trading systems that tend to perform well together during the same period. As the market turns, these trading systems may also perform poorly at the same time. It is better to develop a balance portfolio instead of a bipolar performance portfolio.

Attached is a snapshot of Leah account. We are up +$4,782 and are floating with +$112 profit. I am off to my evening conference and am looking forward to make more connections.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal.../LeahOct12.png

October 13, 2010 Update

Here is the deal, if the US unemployment remained too high or prices too low, the Federal Reserve will step in to provide additional momentary policy accommodation i.e. printing more money. This is done to stimulate the US economy and to keep interest rate ultra low. What does this mean for US investors or Global investors? They will invest in higher yielding currencies and avoid US currency due to its ultra low yield. As you can see today the EURUSD hit 1.4001 and then retraced back to 1.39129. If the second monetary easing is to take place, we may see the EURUSD going up to 1.4500. Tomorrow news can come out, and it may change the outlook all together.

I hope that you are keeping track of all these fundamental news, since they are contradictory at times. Technical traders have it easy as they only need to read their charts to see if the trend is moving up or down. Fundamentalists must gather all the news and then add weight factors to analyze their impacts. As for me and my army of followers, we look at our balance and equity from our expert advisors’ trades once or twice a day, and we are good. We read the news or look at the charts because we are curious to see what is going on in the world. As of today, our Jasmine trading system is at +$6,683 profit. It is currently in 3 EURUSD buy trades and 2 sell trades with $107 floating profit. As always for Jasmine trading system, our maximum stop loss is $100 and our maximum take profit is $260, see attached chart. I guess the people trading with expert advisors like us have the easiest tasks.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...smineOct13.png

October 14, 2010 Update

Mr. Masoud Mir-Kazemi, minister of Iranian Petroleum will become the president of OPEC on January 1, 2011. As most of you are aware OPEC stands for Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries which make up of twelve countries Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Venezuela. We are all familiar with the term “drug cartel” and OPEC is the “oil cartel”. OPEC nations own more than 60% of world’s oil reserves, and account for more than 30% of world’s old production. This allowed them to wield considerable control over the price of oil in the global market. Thanks to the discovery and development of large oil reserves in Alaska, North Sea, Canada, Gulf of Mexico, and Russia, OPEC’s ability to control the price of oil has weaken but they still can influence the oil price by setting their daily oil production target.

One day maybe there are enough users of my five trading systems that we can form a “Forex Cartel”. Jasmine automated trading system has been performing extremely well; hence, more followers will come onboard to use our trading systems. Currently, Jasmine net profit stands at $6,841 (68% return) or 6,841 pips in less than 5 months. Will this perform continue to last month over month? Not a chance but let appreciate the moment and enjoy the ride. Jasmine has three open trades: 1 EURUSD buy trade and 2 EURUSD sell trades for a floating profit of +104 pips, see attached chart.

Look for our mid month performance report for tomorrow. Cheers.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...smineOct14.png

October 15, 2010 Update

Below are the trading results of my five expert advisors since May 21, 2010 (five months).

Haley = +779 pips (7.8%) with 313 trades
Jasmine = +6,817 pips (68.2%) with 442 trades
Leah = +4,700 pips (47.0%) with 388 trades
Mellisa = -2,325 pips (-23.3%) with 319 trades
Sienna = -706 pips (-7.1%) with 605 trades

If you haven’t downloaded my software, below is the link again. The installation takes 30 seconds.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...EX_dot_COM.zip
1) Download the zip file onto your desktop
2) Unzip the file and follow the README text file.

Please make a post and vote for “Test Drive Winsor’s 5 Trading Systems” thread.

 

1. If you have made money trading with my five trading systems, make a post and let me know.
2. If you have lost money trading with my five trading systems, also make a post and rant at me.
3. If this is your first exposure to my five trading systems, make a post and say hi.

October 18, 2010 Update

We haven’t covered Haley automated trading system for a while; hence, let’s talk about it today. Haley started trading with $10,000 on May 21, 2010. It did well in the beginning as it reached $12,000 within two months. Like all mechanical trading systems, it went through a period of drawdown. It dropped from $12,000 to $11,000, to $10,000, and then to $9,500. Most followers would shunt Haley or jumped off its bandwagon due to its $2,500 drawdown. This is the normal fear reaction of the Forex traders; hence, 95% of retail traders are not profitable.

The normal greed reaction of the forex trader is to jump onto a winning system after it has gone through a string of winning trades. It is impossible to time the market or predict the performance of a trading system. It is best to determine your trading objective and stick with your game plan for at least six months. Don’t waver too early and avoid jumping from one trading system to another. Currently, Haley is at $10,755 with $155 floating profit, see attached chart. Give Haley one year and it will hit the $13,500 goal.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...HaleyOct18.png

October 19, 2010 Update



1) Our maximum stop loss limited our losses to 100 pips else it could have been much worse.

2) This is the reason why we use fixed lot instead of compounding lots. Using compounding lot size, our losses would have been much worse.

3) Risk and reward go together in trading. During the past five months, Jasmine has gained 6,500 pips, and this is its reward. The 680-pip drawdown is part of its risk. It is impossible to have 100% winning trading system without any risks.

4) If you believe in a trading system, you must stick with it for 6 six months. Whenever you are committed to a trading system, it is best to stick with it. Jumping onto a system when it is winning and jumping off a system when it is losing is the norm. This is one of the reasons when 95% of traders failed in forex trading. You must learn to resist this temptation.

5) This is the reason why you should avoid trading a system when it is winning. After a winning streak experienced by Jasmine, it is bound to hit a snag.

6) The best time to enter a trading system is when it is losing or going through a drawdown. Wait for Jasmine to drop another 500 pips to 1,000 pips, and then you enter. This way the system has absorbed some of the losses, and you will have a greater potential on the upswing.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...smineOct19.png

October 20, 2010 Update

After a string of losses, most traders would shut down their computers and take a few days off. For great traders, we would brush aside their losses and start anew the next day. Unfortunately, in Forex there is no next day as the market runs 24 hours per day. The best thing about algorithm trading is that the computer does not know that its last 7 trades were unprofitable. It has no fear and will continue to trade the market without quitting or taking a break. It is business as normal and the software continues to monitor the market looking for opportunities. Can you model yourself like software without any emotional attachment or break?

The majority of traders will start doubting themselves and their methods after 7 consecutive trades. Some traders will start going back to their historical charts and begin to modify their methods. It is impossible to fine tune a method that would eliminate all your losses and yet most traders will always search for the Holy Grail after a string of losing trades. In algorithm trading, losses and drawdown are determined and accepted. You cannot have a trading system that is 100% profitable. You can still be profitable with 20% winning system. Have you heard of Angel investors? These are smart people with lots of money. For every ten companies that they invest in: on average six companies would go belly up, two to three companies would break even, and one or two companies would be the big winner. If these are smart and rich people, why can’t they hire the best advisors to ensure that all their investments are 100% winners? The point here is to stop looking for the Holy Grail and start focusing more on your psychology and money management.

There may not be anything wrong with your trading strategy. You have to realize that different trading strategies are required for different market conditions. For instance, in a bullish market, you go with the trend and buy. In a bearish market, you can also go with trend and sell. In a sideway market, you may adopt the fading strategy where you sell when the price is high and buy when the price is low. At times, it is impossible to tell whether it is a bullish market or a sideway market so which strategy do you adopt? This is the reason why I have six subsystems in Jasmine: two for the up trend, two for the down trend and two for the sideway market. For human, it is hard to keep track of different trading strategies at one time but this is extremely easy with a computer.

Presently, Jasmine has jumped back into the EURUSD market with 4 buy trades. It is currently floating with +422 pips, see attached. The take away from this post: 1) losses affect traders but not computers 2) computer does not quit or requires losing break 3) there is no Holy Grail strategy 4) Different strategies are required for different market conditions 5) human can trade with only one strategy while a computer can trade with multiple strategies simultaneously.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...smineOct20.png