Old Dog Fib Trading - EURUSD

It may help to identify the session NY. You just adjust the schedule of sessions based on your MT4, or access the link and adjust accordingly.
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/fxmarkethours/

I-sessions now NY

Great work canuck.. this is kind of approach is well appriciated in this forum community rather than hidden formula. Thanks goes to old dog too.. ..

nice work..

Presumably everything the indicator draws can have its colors changed. So if you wanted no fibs, you could change the color to "none".

I am posting another indicator with two functions, you can see and compare the two. In this you can even disappear with this rectangle and leave only the contour

Just subscribing, everything looks great fellows, thanks.

Hi all,

sooooo...
Here is my first attempt for this indicator that we are all waiting for...

Put it to your experts/indicators folder, compile with MetaEditor, or shutdown+reload MT4 (auto-compiles whatever is "new").

August, September and October levels are hardcoded, maybe we'll be able to add december (and beyond) as well...

Special Thanks:
- to Aebab for having shared his system and opened a whole new vision in trading
- to OldDog who revealed his 25-years winning Calculator
- to CanuckCT for opening the new thread
- to future contributors who do not have their names here yet,
but i know some names that could be added here soon if they mind contributing so this thread can survive in december...


Let's see what this first attempt looks like, give me your remarks, and we'll go forward!

What it has now:
- Aebab's Phases and mid (yellow) fibs, as in the Script i posted in Aebab's thread,
- OldDog calculation breakout levels for each day:
- blue "Pivot" line
- 2 green "stripes" for the 2 high (buy) breakout+target zones
- 2 pink "stripes" for the 2 low (sell) breakout+target zones
- i did NOT draw the "sentiment" line yet; Shall I ?
- i removed the "74pips Closing Fib" that were in the script -- irrelevant at this stage of the indicator development; the code is still there, so we can easily reactivate it in the future.


- it is not yet optimized... so it will redraw ALL phases of ALL months every time it detects a new phase has formed...


Sorry Canuck, i just thought those stripes would be visually more attractive than thick lines.
I may be wrong, but it does look nice on my chart!
Be sure to use a light (white) background again -- no black.

- make sure you have adjusted "NY_Close_hour" according to your brokerz timezone, it is currently set to "23" which is for GMT+2/DST;


What is unsure as of now:
- i don't know yet if it will follow price action properly for extending the Phases when price breaks out to a new Phase up or down;
- i don't know if it will properly draw the new daily OldDog zones when NY closing bell rings...
This is because markets are closed now, so i can't feed the indicator with new ticks until monday...


Remarks wellcome!


A possible way of trading this:
- open 2 buystop trades and 2 sellstop trades at the beginning of the day: one for each "stripe";
- go out to work, bar, sailing, whatever,
- come back at NY close, and enjoy your banked pips!

Questions:
- what SL ?
- TP: 2 options (at least):
- option 1: set TP to the Target of each stripe;
- option 2: set TP of BOTH trades to Target2, and TRAIL Trade1 once it has reached TP1, so that you bank the pips between stripe1 and stripe2... (now: what trail distance ?...)

Just a thought...

SQ

Very good, thank you, unfortunately only on Sunday to test. Hugs

Hey Squalou,
An excellent start!
Cheers
CanuckCT

My initial thoughts....

Sunday Data

Not sure what to do with that extra hour or two on Sunday on some brokers...my thinking is to have an option to include this with Monday. So Friday's NY close would be used and Sunday would be treated at extras hours on Monday.

Three strategies

I think there are at least 3 trading strategies in play here. Here is how I see it.

Old Dog Targets

This is what you have now...I wouldn't change it...except maybe to put a price label somewhere on the top and bottom of those green and pink areas and to provide whatever Old Dog thinks is appropriate.

NYCloseBreakoutFib

There is a 74 pip fib breakout from NY close...initially, this number could be entered manually but someone had provided a suggestion of how it is derived....so can automate this...may want to leave room for that.

A pic of that looks like this



Some rules of what to do with this will follow from someone I hope.

ReversalFib

This is an entire trading strategy on it's own...one I never spent much time on. But here goes. Anyone feel free to correct me.

Draw blue fib from 23.6 phase above to 50% fib in current phase. Draw a second blue fib from 23.6 fib in current phase to 50% fib in phase below. Now draw a third fib from the 100% on the top fib to the 61.8% level on the bottom fib...reversals are at the 38.2 level on the third fib...boxes I've highlighted.

Two ways to deal with change in direction....for now I've drawn the same fibs for the previous phase which was below the current phase....and marked the 38 fib level as well.

There is one more way to draw that lower fib...but that can be later if necessary.

A picture is much easier to understand...so here is is.



Confusion
To have these three strategies on one chart creates confusion. I suggest the indicator only allow one of the three on a single chart.
1 - Old Dog
2 - NY Fib breakout
3 - Reversal Fib

Then everyone can pick their poison....and 3 EURUSD charts is not asking for too much to look at. Maybe a static label at the top that indicates what trading strategy the indicator is displaying.

With the 3 strategies, lots of reasons to trade. Like someone said...put enough fibs on a chart and something is likely to hit.

2.368 Phases

I believe there was a thought that if 2.368 phases for the month were met, then price would continue to at least Phase 4. So that seems to be a prominent level for us to consider and should be here somewhere regardless of which of the 3 strategies is displaying.

That's all I have for now.

Very nice work Squalou.

Cheers
CanuckCT

I have had a couple of people indicating they have been able to calculate the base level and the phases...so hopefully that information will be forthcoming soon.
Cheers
CanuckCT

Yes.

For now, can you also draw a vertical line on the last bar of the NY close....and then a horizontal line at the closing price that displays only on the current day.

That will allow for some debugging of the calculations.

Cheers
CanuckCT

Hello,

I have used, and written, many indicators over the years that require daily data, and this whole stupid business of Sundays causes endless problems!

Some indy's have an "IgnoreSunday" flag which sometimes doesn't work.

The simple fact is, the FX market is open for EXACTLY five days, 0000 on Monday to 2359 on Friday.

So, in the UK for example, it appears to open at 2100 or 2200 (GMT/BST) and other times elsewhere.

This is why I will only EVER use data from a broker with a GMT+3 feed. Then there is never a "Sunday". The market opens 0000 Monday and closes Friday.

Although I trade thru a spread bet house (there is no tax whatever in the UK on trading like this), I always use a proper GMT+3 broker for reference purposes.

IMPORTANT: You have all seen that I tend to confirm trades (and certainly estimate risk for MM purposes) using Price Action.

Of course, hourly and faster candles should be pretty much the same everywhere, but H4 and Daily candles are NOT THE SAME if the broker time offset is different! You get MUCH BETTER price action signals on a GMT+3 broker!

Be wary of using PA on high speed charts. The longer the TF, the more accurate the PA (in general).


Regards

Old Dog

Guys,

This strategy is certainly extensible to other pairs, but only those that behave in a "technical" way.

EU works fine - it has to as it is so large and liquid. EU is 70% of the FX market!

Cable (GU) is also excellent, as it is the most "technical" of the pairs. I don't know why this is, but it just is.

Personally, I trade only EU and GU.

I would love this stragegy to work on the really volatile pairs like GBPJPY as it would make money even faster! But it doesn't work. Believe me, I have tried!

Bobi also talked about using his ideas on Oil (WTI in most brokers). I cannot get this to work as Oil is (a) too volatile and (b) too manipulated a market.

Best regards

Old Dog

PS. When I say "It doesn't work", what I mean is "I can't get it to work". That doesn't mean it can't be done. It just means that I can't do it....

Hi...

Seeking your permission Squalou...

I have just changed only the "color" for black background... hope you wouldn't mind.

TQ & Cheers !

Thats great to hear!



@squalou

good job on the indies! Just one question..When i switch the TF the MT ask me if i want to stop the indicator. Should i open a new chart for each TF i need?

[quote = Old_Dog ; 4066711 ] Olá,

O simples fato é , o mercado Forex é aberto por exatamente cinco dias , 0000 a 2359 na segunda-feira sexta-feira.

Embora o comércio através de uma casa de apostas espalhados (não há qualquer imposto no Reino Unido no comércio como este) , eu uso sempre um bom corretor GMT +3 para fins de referência .

Old Dog [/ quote]

I think we need to establish a rule for the system as there is a big difference between brookers

Hello,

To help those who are coding the indicators for us over the weekend, this post contains the detailed instructions on computing the phase gap by my method.

I have to say, I have some serious concerns about Bobi's method.

As it happens, for Sept he and I got the same result of 127 pips. Then for October, he posted that he had calculated a value of 82 pips, but then for some vague reasons he "didn't like the answer" and arbitrarily changed it back to 127.

Phase gap must, by definition, be a function of volatility, which is itself stochastic. We cannot expect the same phase gap in a slow month (like Oct usually is) as in a trending month (like Sept usually is).

Anyway, here is my method in detail:

(1) Open a clean EURUSD D1 chart.

(2) We are going to measure volatility using Average True Range (ATR). So from the Indicator menu select ATR and add an ATR(44) to your chart. Why 44, I hear you say! Because there is an average of 22 trading days per month and I take the last two months.

(3) Say it is Sept 1 today and we want the Sept value. Look back over the ATR(44) curve and find the PEAK value over the last 2 months. On my chart with my GMT+3 broker, this occurred on 1 July with a value of 0.0186 or 186 pips.

(4) Now imagine drawing the PDF histogram of the ATR in this interval. You will get a bell-curve. (OK, volatility is not Normally distributed as it exhibits some heteroskedasticity, but the Normal assumption is near enough for our purposes). The 186 pip PEAK value will lie at each end.

(5) Now it is a fact that 1 standard deviation contains 68.3% of the data on a bell-curve. So we multiply 186 pips by 0.683 and we get 127 pips as the phase gap.

The October phase gap is not the same in my system!

My peak ATR value in Aug/Sept is 0.0146 or 146 pips. Taking 68.3% of this gives me 100 pips as the phase gap for October.

I suspect Bobi's first results were nearer the truth! In general, we would not expect as much volatility in October as in September.

This can now be added very easily by the coders to indicators, templates and EA's for the benefit of all.

Best regards

Old Dog

How do we calculate the Monthly Base line to start the Fibonacci line?

Thanks,
Prakash

strange... never seen that before....

ahhh... perhaps you put theat indicator in your experts/scripts folder ?
This one is an indicator, not a script anymore.
Should land in experts/indicators instead...

sq