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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #19,481
  • Oct 1, 2010 2:56am Oct 1, 2010 2:56am
Hi again,

trying to dance the 1.37 boggey this morning.
Very exhausting to listen to that music.

But it makes fun and some good pips also ;-)

Anyone else dancing?
  • #19,482
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:03am Oct 1, 2010 3:03am
Hi MaMood,
Hi all,

We can dance 3748
M1 if you create a second leg of our lady
  • #19,483
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:06am Oct 1, 2010 3:06am
attention please - Battlestations!
  • #19,484
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:07am Oct 1, 2010 3:07am
Quoting MaMood
Hi again,

trying to dance the 1.37 boggey this morning.
Very exhausting to listen to that music.

But it makes fun and some good pips also ;-)

Anyone else dancing?
Hi, MaMood

I'm just hanging to my big rider, I not dacing yet. I might get in for some scalping trades for foraging foreign capital, as I did yesterday. MaMood how's it going with your new European lady, be careful, your Japanese girl might get jealous
  • #19,485
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:09am Oct 1, 2010 3:09am
Quoting gart
Hi MaMood,
Hi all,

We can dance 3748
M1 if you create a second leg of our lady
Hi Gart!

Hmmh - I'm sure I will close out my attack, when the momentum after the first break of 3700 will calm down.
If there are many stops above to fuel a big jump - I have no idea.
We will see, what she wants to give to us ...

Be aware of the GB figs in 20 minutes ....
  • #19,486
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:26am Oct 1, 2010 3:26am
Attack out at 3710 ...
Waiting for news and a little "reversal" now
  • #19,487
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:27am Oct 1, 2010 3:27am
Quoting MaMood
Attack out at 3710 ...
Waiting for news and a little "reversal" now
  • #19,488
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:46am Oct 1, 2010 3:46am
Short cable from 15805
Very short term sniping only ...
  • #19,489
  • Oct 1, 2010 3:52am Oct 1, 2010 3:52am
cable squarred out with very small profit..
to much distraction for me at the moment to babysit another trade.

Need to focus on EURUSD only.
Much mor action there
  • #19,490
  • Oct 1, 2010 4:03am Oct 1, 2010 4:03am
Quoting MaMood
cable squarred out with very small profit..
to much distraction for me at the moment to babysit another trade.

Need to focus on EURUSD only.
Much mor action there
but it is worth to remember the words (Auxesis) and practice, practice, practice:

"3 Kingdoms, 4 Sovereigns, U/J E/U G/U, base is the Dollar..... doesn't matter how you build your butterfly, use different pairs if you like as long as they are inter related. You don't have to trade all at the same time, just go with the flow between the 3, one will be stronger or weaker than the others, in relation to the direction of the base . Use that to your advantage in the ebb and flow."

  • #19,491
  • Oct 1, 2010 4:35am Oct 1, 2010 4:35am
Hi Gart,

hope you have gathered some more EU long pips.
I'm out for lunch now.
Will be back later.

CU,
MaMood
  • #19,492
  • Oct 1, 2010 4:53am Oct 1, 2010 4:53am
Happy trading day everyone. Thought I'd stop by to say hi, looks like MaMood has been very busy keeping the thread alive and making pips, nice job! I am sitting with several long euro trades this morning, and will head for the sidelines soon. Can't quite wrap my head around the gbp right now so steering clear of it for now. Good trading everyone!
  • #19,493
  • Oct 1, 2010 4:53am Oct 1, 2010 4:53am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Gart,

hope you have gathered some more EU long pips.
I'm out for lunch now.
Will be back later.

CU,
MaMood
Hi MaMood,

yes, and just closed my short.
CU
gart
  • #19,494
  • Oct 1, 2010 7:10am Oct 1, 2010 7:10am
Quoting gart
but it is worth to remember the words (Auxesis) and practice, practice, practice:

"3 Kingdoms, 4 Sovereigns, U/J E/U G/U, base is the Dollar..... doesn't matter how you build your butterfly, use different pairs if you like as long as they are inter related. You don't have to trade all at the same time, just go with the flow between the 3, one will be stronger or weaker than the others, in relation to the direction of the base . Use that to your advantage in the ebb and flow."

Gart,

"3 Kingdoms, 4 Sovereigns, U/J E/U G/U, base is the Dollar.......... You don't have to trade all at the same time, just go with the flow between the 3, one will be stronger or weaker than the others, in relation to the direction of the base . Use that to your advantage in the ebb and flow."

Do you understand this concept?

regards,
  • #19,495
  • Oct 1, 2010 7:44am Oct 1, 2010 7:44am
Careful now.
Maybe we see the 1.36xx again ...
  • #19,496
  • Oct 1, 2010 7:50am Oct 1, 2010 7:50am
Hi Dutchangel!

Nice suprise to see your nick in this thread again.
Hope everything is fine.

CU,
MaMood
  • #19,497
  • Oct 1, 2010 8:30am Oct 1, 2010 8:30am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Dutchangel!

Nice suprise to see your nick in this thread again.
Hope everything is fine.

CU,
MaMood
Hi MaMood

You caught me lurking again! Things are all good on this side and I have started taking a couple of trades again this week, but dancing shoes a bit dusty still.

Nice to see lots of posts here!

kind regards
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #19,498
  • Edited 8:47am Oct 1, 2010 8:35am | Edited 8:47am
Quoting auxesis
Gart,

"3 Kingdoms, 4 Sovereigns, U/J E/U G/U, base is the Dollar.......... You don't have to trade all at the same time, just go with the flow between the 3, one will be stronger or weaker than the others, in relation to the direction of the base . Use that to your advantage in the ebb and flow."

Do you understand this concept?

regards,
Hi John,

let me try to describe the concept in my own words.
It will not be that smooth and with didactical value add as your explanations, but it will force me to think that concept to an end. And of course I expect some comments, if I got it right. .....

3 kingdoms 4 sovereigns - with this three pairs we have the 3 major pairs covered. I guess that more than 85% (??) of FX transactions are done in it.

Means that if one pair does the a significant move, the other two will react in some way. The pairs are connected through the common pair USD. The directions of the other 2 pairs should show up like the quotient
is defining it. If so, we are speacking of "3kgds are in sync". Then we have a good scenario for following the money flow through the 3 pairs.

If the 3 kgds do not behave as the quotient is predicting, we say the 3kgds are not in sync. The market is somehow weird.

We should trade the strongest moving pair and have an eye on the others, to see if they are backing the move, or if they are showing upcoming momentum slow down or trend change or ....

Observing the 3 Kgds gives me very often the feeling like they are connect by a rubber band. Means it is not a direct fixed 1:1 correlation between them. But as long as they are in sync they follow like a elastic rubber band would do.

There is another opportunity building up on the 3 kgds: We can easiuly hedge our exposure in one pair with positions in one of the other pairs (We have to chose the "opposite" one).

Ok - thats my understanding of the 3 kgds in short.
Have to copme to an end, cause Wall Street steps into my charts now .....


Edit: Have to add, that the synchronity of the 3 kgds can be disturbed in may ways. Let me just throw in the headwords Risk Aversion, Save Haven, Gold, etc ....
  • #19,499
  • Oct 1, 2010 8:39am Oct 1, 2010 8:39am
Quoting auxesis
Gart,

"3 Kingdoms, 4 Sovereigns, U/J E/U G/U, base is the Dollar.......... You don't have to trade all at the same time, just go with the flow between the 3, one will be stronger or weaker than the others, in relation to the direction of the base . Use that to your advantage in the ebb and flow."

Do you understand this concept?

regards,
Auxesis,

Yes, I understand the concept. Reply to Mamood may not be accurate (my poor english )
I use to move from kingdom to kingdom depending on the situation.
I go by the overall balance of my account. Do not stay married to one of the kingdom
and does not begin simultaneously in other battles. Sometimes, I realize that saving
in a different realm than the battle commenced. Where I have a greater chance of victory
"in relation to the direction of the base"

regards,
  • #19,500
  • Oct 1, 2010 8:42am Oct 1, 2010 8:42am
Just for info:


[...]
LONDON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - The euro rose broadly on Friday, hitting a six-month high against the dollar as Asian central banks were seen selling the U.S. currency for euros to rebalance their books and helped by technical triggers.
Market players said Asian central banks bought dollars versus local currencies in Asian hours, and subsequently were seen selling the greenback to rebalance their reserve portfolios by buying euros.
The euro extended gains after breaking above an option barrier at $1.3700 as speculative players bought into the pair, with talk of a digital option at $1.3750 set to expire at the New York cut at 1400 GMT pushing it to $1.3763, its highest since mid-March.
[...]

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