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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #19,461
  • Sep 30, 2010 1:45am Sep 30, 2010 1:45am
Quoting maheswara
can mamood or anyone gives me mt4 simple script for buy/sell n closing all positions , my station died , currently using my old laptop ...
thanks

Good morning Friends!

@Maheswara: Do you still need that script?
If so, please give me a call on skype.

CU,
MaMood
  • #19,462
  • Sep 30, 2010 1:49am Sep 30, 2010 1:49am
Quoting gart
Hi MaMood,

You are very ambitious trader. It's very inspiring.
Have just read your Blotter wanted to ask a question about TP
but I already answered
I looked for a moment and wish you a successful trading tomorrow

CU
gart

Good Morning Gart,

thanx for your kinds words!

I just try to shift my odds of trading successfully in my favour.
As a former IT specialist it is relative easy for me create some helpful tools, that support my way of trading optimal ...

Cu,
MaMood
  • #19,463
  • Sep 30, 2010 2:00am Sep 30, 2010 2:00am
Quoting MaMood
Good morning Friends!

@Maheswara: Do you still need that script?
If so, please give me a call on skype.

CU,
MaMood
hey mamood ,
no i figured my own script didnt work cos i hadnt enabled live trading ,lol
all good now,thanks
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #19,464
  • Sep 30, 2010 2:04am Sep 30, 2010 2:04am
Quoting maheswara
hey mamood ,
no i figured my own script didnt work cos i hadnt enabled live trading ,lol
all good now,thanks

Ok fine.
Good to hear :-)
  • #19,465
  • Sep 30, 2010 2:24am Sep 30, 2010 2:24am

Just for info:

USD/JPY: Fix Demand But Exporters In Thereafter

USD/JPY fell off from a pre-Tokyo fix high of 83.81 on Japanese exporter sales. More offers still eyed from around 84.00, trail higher. Stops below presumed option barriers at 83.50 taken out. Bids ahead of more barriers tipped at 83.25 hold for now. Talk barriers trail lower in 25-increments. Stops large sub-83.00 and 82.75. (hi)
Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)
  • #19,466
  • Sep 30, 2010 2:32am Sep 30, 2010 2:32am
Hey,

found that in the FF news area.

It's the recent positioning of reatil traders.
Unfortunatley I do not know how many traders are used for the statistic ...


http://www.pivotfarm.com/blog/wp-con...ian-300910.gif
  • #19,467
  • Sep 30, 2010 2:50am Sep 30, 2010 2:50am
Good morning Niels,

Oanda have similar tool in their website based on their own client base. Unfortunately even though they have one of the largest client bases in the retails business it is still a gnat compared to the institutional side which drives the market. On top of that each time I have tried to use that tool for any type of reference it turned out to be wrong (the 95% curse in action I guess, lol) So my take is that as long as it gives the retailers' sentiment I wouldn't pay any attention to it as given the success statistics of retail FX it's probably wrong. Which brings the question - maybe use it in an inverted manner taking opposite positions?

Rgrds
S


Quoting MaMood
Hey,

found that in the FF news area.

It's the recent positioning of reatil traders.
Unfortunatley I do not know how many traders are used for the statistic ...


http://www.pivotfarm.com/blog/wp-con...ian-300910.gif
  • #19,468
  • Sep 30, 2010 3:24am Sep 30, 2010 3:24am
Quoting MaMood
Hey,

found that in the FF news area.

It's the recent positioning of reatil traders.
Unfortunatley I do not know how many traders are used for the statistic ...


http://www.pivotfarm.com/blog/wp-con...ian-300910.gif
Looks like the majority of reatail traders are trading against major trends and trying to pick major tops and bottoms, as always. Nothing bad in that if your account can withstand -1000 pips floating DD
  • #19,469
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:07am Sep 30, 2010 4:07am
Quoting Setebos
Good morning Niels,

Oanda have similar tool in their website based on their own client base. Unfortunately even though they have one of the largest client bases in the retails business it is still a gnat compared to the institutional side which drives the market. On top of that each time I have tried to use that tool for any type of reference it turned out to be wrong (the 95% curse in action I guess, lol) So my take is that as long as it gives the retailers' sentiment I wouldn't pay any attention to it as given the success statistics of...
Hi Stan,

the author of article that included this grapgic was going exactly that way: He says when there are more than 66% of the retailers with positions in one direction, just take the other direction ;-)



BTW: Here is the link for your reference:

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=258362
  • #19,470
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:12am Sep 30, 2010 4:12am
Just for info:


2010.09.30 11:09:35 Japan MOF Sakurai: MOF Will Take Decisive Forex Steps If Needed

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--A Japanese vice finance minister said Thursday that Japan's government will take "decisive steps" to curb the yen's appreciation, and that he hoped the Bank of Japan will also introduce additional monetary easing at its policy board meeting next week to counter the rising domestic currency.
"As the prime minister (Naoto Kan) has said, the Kan administration will take decisive steps to correct the yen's strength," said Mitsuru Sakurai, a recently appointed senior vice finance minister, at a regular news conference.
-By Takashi Nakamichi, Dow Jones Newswires; 813-6269-2781; [email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 30, 2010 05:09 ET (09:09 GMT)

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Ciw Dung included ;-)
  • #19,471
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:31am Sep 30, 2010 4:31am
Thx, it seems we're all on the same page on the subject

Btw just had a look at Oanda's data on the subject -it's very close to what's been presented in that article - the author probably consolidated and averaged all the data he could find. Anyway, it's amusing but still not my cup of tea.
Your lady of first choice looks very hairy today - is she treating you well?

Rgrds
S


Quoting MaMood
Hi Stan,

the author of article that included this grapgic was going exactly that way: He says when there are more than 66% of the retailers with positions in one direction, just take the other direction ;-)



BTW: Here is the link for your reference:

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=258362
  • #19,472
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:36am Sep 30, 2010 4:36am
Hi again,

many of you have asked me: How do you know when to flip.

Here is a very clear example.
I was EURUSD short.
But I flipped @13640 to save my book.
After the moe slowed down I squarred out @13667
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-tick_2010-09-30_1132.jpg Size: 59 KB
  • #19,473
  • Sep 30, 2010 5:57am Sep 30, 2010 5:57am
mamood are you trading tick charts now?
  • #19,474
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:37am Sep 30, 2010 6:37am
Quoting eraptheman
mamood are you trading tick charts now?

Hi eraptheman,

no, I'm still on M5 as main trading chart.
Using this very short timeframes only for detecting upcoming momentum.
If you see how strong such a jump looks like on a very short timeframe, you can be realtively sure, that there is some momentum for a good amount of pips.

Especially when trading against the main trend the good old saying "time is money" is very relevant for me ....

CU,
MaMood
  • #19,475
  • Sep 30, 2010 7:58am Sep 30, 2010 7:58am
Quoting MaMood
Hi eraptheman,

no, I'm still on M5 as main trading chart.
Using this very short timeframes only for detecting upcoming momentum.
If you see how strong such a jump looks like on a very short timeframe, you can be realtively sure, that there is some momentum for a good amount of pips.

Especially when trading against the main trend the good old saying "time is money" is very relevant for me ....

CU,
MaMood
interesting to see usd/jpy near the pre-intervention price level..
  • #19,476
  • Sep 30, 2010 8:14am Sep 30, 2010 8:14am
I bet those sentiment statistics are directly copied from Oanda's open position ratios. They are almost identical and I even posted that in the news item when it was released hehe.

Acting like its something new and revolutionary lol on their website.

And yes the statistics should be used in a contrarian manner as discussed by the author of the stats and owner of Oanda.

I think it was posted before but he discusses the stats in his mini book too.

It's too big to attach directly but anyways here ya go:

http://www.olsenblog.com/wp-content/..._Trade_5.2.pdf

I think this MO is difficult when one has limited time to trade with the rescuing and stuff. But maybe I am not understanding the process well enough. It just feels odd to add to losers. Mamood's scalping mode seems to be the only viable way for those with only hour or two to trade.

Seems like the best pairs to trade would be the strongest vs. weakest because cleanest trending and least retracements.
  • #19,477
  • Sep 30, 2010 9:35am Sep 30, 2010 9:35am
Quoting Deusomega
I bet those sentiment statistics are directly copied from Oanda's open position ratios. They are almost identical and I even posted that in the news item when it was released hehe.

Acting like its something new and revolutionary lol on their website.

And yes the statistics should be used in a contrarian manner as discussed by the author of the stats and owner of Oanda.

I think it was posted before but he discusses the stats in his mini book too.

It's too big to attach directly but anyways here ya go:

http://www.olsenblog.com/wp-content/..._Trade_5.2.pdf...
Thankyou for the link,read it all ,seems to be what we are being taught.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #19,478
  • Sep 30, 2010 1:57pm Sep 30, 2010 1:57pm
Quoting paul1
Thankyou for the link,read it all ,seems to be what we are being taught.
Yes I see you notice the similarities as well .
  • #19,479
  • Oct 1, 2010 12:58am Oct 1, 2010 12:58am
Good Morning Friends!


Just for info:

* 01 Oct 10: 05:07 GMT (SGA) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows - PM Wen to give "vote of confidence" in Greece; support Euro
Euro to find more support from China? Both on FX reserves diversification related demand, and also on "vote of confidence" from China. With it demand for Eurozone bonds, Greek bonds as well. Premier Wen Jiabao will give a "vote of confidence" in Greece's economy when he visits and will also offer practical actions to support Europe's unsteady economic recovery. Chinese Ambassador to Greece Luo Linquan told Xinhua. He says Premier Wen is taking practical actions to support Greece Euro and EU. On FX, not surprised to hear of more Chinese investment in Eurozone bonds - and euro = "practical actions"? EUR/USD edging up to 1.3665-66, eye yest 5-m highs of 1.3684, then 1.3700 on back of "practical action" from China. EUR/JPY back up at 114.00-03, eye 2-m highs of 114.23. USD/JPY at 83.47-50, bids at 83.00-20 - talks of Kampo, offers 83.80-84.00.WL

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cor Dung included ;-)
  • #19,480
  • Oct 1, 2010 1:50am Oct 1, 2010 1:50am
Quoting MaMood
Good Morning Friends!


Just for info:

[indent]* 01 Oct 10: 05:07 GMT (SGA) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows - PM Wen to give "vote of confidence" in Greece; support Euro
[i]Euro to find more support from China? Both on FX reserves diversification related demand, and also on "vote of confidence" from China. With it demand for Eurozone bonds, Greek bonds as well. Premier Wen Jiabao will give a "vote of confidence" in Greece's economy when he visits and will also offer practical actions to support Europe's unsteady economic...
Thanks for the info MaMood
China is always looking around for a currency to pump up. They have been warned by USA(even USA took some serious measures) and Japan, so maybe it's time to go for the euro officially. In my opinion, a good part of the pupmig process has been done before this announcement.

Regards, MyTbo
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