Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

Weakening and devaluing your currency is the latest rage on the world market scene. Looks like the Bank of England might win that game the way today is unfolding. Got some GU and GY longs, but am down from hundreds of pips to just a few on the next dip. Did take some profits previously, but opted to leave 75% vested ... over to the forex gods for now or BE. Done for the day.

manawi..hope u can believe..chart never lie...

Bingo!!!!
Anyone else take the trade?

The trend is my friend ( part II ) :

http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/6...300920108h.jpg

Your charts are pretty but you've said nothing about what you're expecting nor what your trend was when you first posted, and you've now repeated that. I'm sure 100% of forum viewers feel the same way. Just FYI.

On the markets, we're into NY & Chicago lunch-hour, and we're not likely to break the last low BUT - didn't realize - Helicopter Ben is up again at 2:30 EST. Whether or not GU & GY hold will be up to him and what the S&P and DOW interpret from him. Would be great if he could capitalize on some so-so US data lately and the USD demand we're seeing today. But Ben's track record isn't that good. USDJPY almost looks like it want to do a retrace beyond that last UTL. Would also be good timing for BoJ/MoF to capitalize & spur things onwards with intervention, start of the month, etc, plus, save some face, and not have all their previous work get thrown to the wind. Further waiting on their part really underlines to everyone they have no clue what they're doing.

Not a given though that a positive Ben that would propell GU & GY. But alas, I'm sure the big boys have something more exciting and wallet-draining-to-many in mind. VSA seems to be telling me there's no demand for sterling.

Sterling looks on edge as the NY afternoon moves on. GU, GY are correlated with the S&P - put the charts up side by side and you can see. No sense of what Ben may add here. If the equity plunge protection program doesn't work (ie., stocks go down), it looks like it could be one of those 300 pip kabooms, that we get 2-4 times a year on this pair. Retraces up still look very sold - it really looks precarious. No demand from the bar movement IMHO. Currently at 1.5675, 130.9. UJ fairly steady at 83.44.

Any thoughts about the wisdom of laddering in Buy Entry orders in case one is not in front of the computer for BOJ blast off?

I wouldn't do it without being in front of the PC, or on MT4 Windows Mobile. (The latter is free, just need a Windows Phone & data plan).

Things are too precarious IMHO between Ben, the sterling selloff and a complete lack of consistency or planning by BoJ, and other nebulous unknown facts. Again, not saying they need to intervene, but announce a yen-negative measure, and then followup on it. Heck, western politicians do it all the time, without even trying!

What I was saying about messy correlations: S&P rallying back and sterling yens trending down.

Thanks Bel, good advice ... I know someone who lost 6 figures once while taking a shower.

I was thinking of placing Buy Entry orders above daily resistance lines and move them down with PA.

Yes never lie! , im so upset i knew about this big fall for GU but cant talk it out or benifit it as every other math setup point to 195 / 16

Thanks for the compliments.

1) It seems in the last couple of days that GBP is the loser in the contest for currency devaluation. Hence, I had absolutely no understanding for the GBP strength lately ( especially in retrospective of BOE´s Posen´s comments about the need for a second round of QE )
2) BOJ will be hesitant to act "DECISIVELY" like they did a couple of days ago. The political response didn´t wait too long. The US and Europe have not been amused about the "lone cowboy" style of BOJ.
3) My charts shows a mixture of standard deviations, Fibonacci and additionally some long term SMA´s.
4) 8h hour charts "purify" the noise in the market.
5) Time frame analysis allows for fine tuning of entries and exits.
6) I have been short since 132.49. It was a simple 60 min closing price entry as 8h SMA ( 20 ) was unable to be broken to the upside.
7) Adding to position as long as 60 min closing price below prior candle / bar closing price.
8) Observing 8 hour chart for confirmation of trend.
9) Exit strategy : if prior 60 min candle / bar high is "pentrated" close 1/3 of position. Otherwise trend is your friend.


Some general rules ( I like rules ) :
- never invest more than 30 % margin / equity ratio.
- be aggressive when you are in a winning streak
- never invest when your risk / reward is > 1
- tomorrow is another day, you don´t have to be 24 hours invested
- a real rocknrolla wants the fu...ing lot

Exit @131.08 1/3 position, rest short.

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/7843/gj60min.jpg

Quote:
Originally Posted by ukdaytrader http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
And like a magical magnet 131.05 approaches....
Wonder if the BoJ will fight this one or let the inevitible happen...?

I agree....131.30/131.00 and possible as far as 130.45. Daily close will have a big influence from here where we are heading.....139 or 129.. and of course the the ever presence of BOJ intervention....should I forget


Yes...Ukdaytrader......nice call

..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=232319

Let's take a look at where we are on GBPUSD. I will admit I was looking for a breach of 1.592 to 1.6. The market dynamics changed significantly on Thursday, and a number of fundamental sterling specific issues occurred, so we went down.

Weekly - The weekly chart with a fib of the 2009 1.7 high and late 2008 driven disasterous 1.35 low puts today's PA close just above/at the 61.8% 1.569 line, which is also good support. Note the pink circle highlighted area in 3Q09 where 1.569 and the associated fib provided support. For three weeks.

The yellow top trendline has validity with 3 area touch points (first one is mid-Nov 2009). With last weeks PA and todays, it would appear penetration has been attempted. The bounce and bullish rise of the 50% fib is indicative. Failure today to the 1.6x zone resulted in a 250 pip fall, and falure to rise above. A similarly violent rejection took place 7-8 weeks ago. Conclusion: Closes above 1.569/1.572 remain very bullish for GBPUSD. Closes above 1.527 remain moderately bullish.

Daily - A fib of the rise from 1.422 to 1.599 shows the retrace to 61.8% of the rise at 1.532 confirming bullish intent. The rise from 1.53 since Mid September has been strong. Price has firmly cleared and bounced off 1.55 support. 1.59 also exhibits resistance.

H4 - Fibbing yesterday's failed high of 1.5922 down to 1.5296 gives us a price rest and so far reasonable bounce at the 61.8% fib of 1.569 - we've shown that's strong support in the past. Also, note the yellow lower trend line and bounce; even hitting the next purple trend line and bouncing would retain bullishness IMO.

Looking forward to Friday PA, I would expect a visit to the 74.4% fib or the 1.577 or 50% of the Thursday fall from 1.592. UK PMI due out and will obvisously have whipsaw potential; expectations are for a failure. If so, 1.558 should form the lower support.

Elsewhere, USD strength and USDJPY buying is reported. That's a sentiment shift that may stick. Looking at my USDJPY chart, it's possible it may break upwards & retrace beyond the LTL it's been abiding by since Sept 15, intervention day.

U.K. Sept. manufacturing PMI 53.4 vs. 53.7 in Aug

is enough long for GU ?
EU just hit the channel HTL on weekly!
advise please

went short with stop on the high 15878
good luck

That was one hell of a shake-out yesterday. Too bad it run many stops, incl. my own, but have thankfully made it back today, as I'd been buying on the way down. In hindsight, I shouldn't have been buying up below 1.59 - those are the ones that got run. Had some other longs, which were thankfully spared.

Cable moving quickly and has reach within 50 pips of Thursday's 1.592 high. Was going to add that if it can get through 1.585 resistance (also weekly 38.2% support) and reach for the 23% 1.5863 fib, it's bullishness is confirmed, and we stand heading for new highs. That LTL that Maanawi, Geppy, some others and I pointed out has done it's job; a 2-day graph would show a lovely rejection.

Word was yesterday's month end activity was the selling of billions of sterling to buy euros and send to the new Brussels mothership.

We're now into a congestion/supply zone so hard to say where/when next. 1.586 looks like it's been wicked into for now. We need a fundamental catalyst to launch us further now hopefully the US news will do so, in combination with diversification out of USD into sterling, euro, etc. Or not. Good luck to all .. catching some winks here.

USDJPY into new post intervention lows ... now, if only the BoJ knew what they were doing ... !