vsa with Malcolm

Seems the crazy movements is down to month end, quarter end, and Japanese fiscal half year end. There was expectation for certain flows, based on forecasts, but when they didn't materialise, eur, aud and gbp has positions unwound.

This from forexlive puts it far more eloquently ..

These month-end fixings are maddening. Every bank puts out their forecasts based on sophisticated models and HAGS (hairy-assed guesses) and they all turn out to be wrong…
The buck was in demand as started to become clear in the run up to the fixing and sent the market scrambling to offload EUR, GBP and AUD and buy the greenback.
EUR/USD has fallen back to the 1.36 level while cable is threatening 1.5700. AUD is down to 0.9660.
Stornger GDP, Chicago PMI and KC Fed are all contributing to the market pushing back expectations of QE in November.

Oh boy, thank God I was/am on night shift for 2 nights, making me sleep through the day, cause seems everybody is having a hard time... which mean I would probably also, if I would be up and trading

I would laugh so hard if all of this was reversed! I mean just based on charts: clearly there was a lot of fighting. Up moves being sold, down moves being bought, new highs that made no sense (late US session/asia), shakeouts reversed into new highs to just slam everything down again. That to me looks like catch weak longs, make more longs come in, catch weak longs again. If that's the case, then any down moves are meaningless (mid-long term) and the only way to go is up. But looking at charts all day is giving me a brainache.

If we look at today's EU and GU, nothing major is broken yet. All supports are working, it's just a matter of one's capital and SL. To any big boy (not really any one person, but sm) who trades long-term, this wouldn't even bother him. It's just that small money is getting worried. Who knows, maybe it's just some profit taking, or just to confuse everyone to go short and then take out all shorts?

And fundamentals are crap for a long time now. So much talk about Greece, EU, the fall of USD, a single global currency, bringing down Wall Street... European Union is still here today, nothing has changed. Greece is still around, U.S. is still here, Wall Street I imagine is quite happy, no single currency... The only ones that got hurt are little guys who were fed bs and made dumb decisions.

What hasn't changed is that we know when news comes out and that's when to expect volatility. We can trade during news or avoid it. That's just preference.

Anyway, what this beating around the bush means. I'm still bullish and no one's gonna stop me I noticed quite a few people had a change of heart. It's not even the end of the trading day. Give Bernanke a chance to destroy USD

I had trades when PA was JUST like today. I got burned, the price went back up, then down again just to fool me twice. That was maybe in two days. After that it rallied like crazy.

Anyway, if anyone's feeling rushed to trade and not to miss a trade, better go to sleep or just step away from trading and come back another day. You may be surprised.

Please excuse the wall of text!

everything makes more sense than we care to admit...

help needed: anyone there knows how i can have 10m charts and 8h charts on MT4? thanks in advance.

hapipipin

i will be unloading a long i am in and probably shorting at 30 depending on PA. have another long at be that i will leave running in case we go higher (the upper white lines). although bull is far from dead i finally several descending angles making sense...

let's c what it brings us...


PS 25 is safer. need to bank some.

Sir Jim,
what's the significance of 107?
i think if we go below 109 - 111 from here, there must be something terribly wrong (bad news, whatever)

look for period converter or periodcon indicator

ah but I got my 40 pip .... no moving average method required just yet ..lol

the way the market are moving today looks distribution ish and eu daily i noted yesterday looked weak , now 60 min looks really weak.

I am looking to sell any rallies till 1.3550 tested. Right now just hit a sell 1.3620

will do so.

many green pips for u on that trade

major signs of sellers up here... could get choppy action as tops typically area after such a storng up move.

red line holding it...

maybe tomorrow we see some decent stopping vol on the up moves to shows us that bears are in charge.

somehow if this turns out to be the healthy retrace i am curious to see how bull (who are STRONG) will react to it. i know this is only guessing but i see the retrace with strong up moves...

hapipipin

E/J failing inside top on the 4 hr.

Jim

thanks jim

ej is in ascending channel and the daily shows high vol coming off the bottom. This to me looks like a shakeout and strength.

Could this be 3 strikes and out. Cant say all I/T's come thru, but this has had 3 tries at the 114 level, and it now looks like it may be formng a lower high. I am in with a realatively short stop, about 40 pips, and would like to see 112.90 level go down. I think the downside is phenomenal. We shall see.

Jim

Zero sum game in gu this week

If current levels hold we might see new highs or it might slip to 1.5530 before lift off.

Hopefully the knocks will be compensated on a substantial move up

Come on London, be patriotic! But there's still quite a bit of selling on 5m. Breaking 1.575 would be good though.

yesterdays huge drop could have been the result of a distribution phase. im anticipating further downward movement.

Arrived home from night shift a bit too late, but still got in long in GU after the break of 1.5750... moved SL to BE early, so even if it will move higher, I might be stopped.
For now, price is drifting between +10 and +20, at daily pivot, and having trouble to go higher.
Anyway, I'll have to go to sleep soon, so if it doesn't stop me before, I'll set a TP around 1.5810 and let it run.
(news in 38 min).