Aox's 2010 Journal

I think I can feel the floor shaking on this pair. Next week is going to be nice for the yen versus the Eur. Double top forming on the 15 min chart as I write this journal. 200 pips easy. If i'm wrong it won't be the first time. But I got a good feeling about this one.

Price has retraced back to the location of the 3sma on the weekly chart that I transposed onto my hourly chart with my take profit line. As I had hoped, If price gets to ahead of the 3 sma on larger timeframes it tends to retrace back to that level before it continues or reverses. However My focus is on the level of the 3 sma is and that will be may target. The pair remained bullishish on Friday and I could have been long like some but as long as I feel a pull back may occur I will not trade counter my opinion until I'm proven wrong.

A hammer has formed right on the take profit area on the 15 minute chart so maybe all is right with the Eur/Yen once again?

Three positions now closed
113.685 closed at 113288- 40 pips
113424 closed at 113150 - 32 pips
113406 closed at 113207 - 23 pips

Nice man
Keep it going

Entered at 114091 Exited at 113767- gain 30+ pips. A textbook looking morning star at a support level prompted my exit.

Entered at 113882 exited at 113645- 28 pip gain. Very ugly price action on this trade at the time. but, it served its purpose.

Three positions opened at :
114138
114168
114145

Target was the 1618 extension at 11401. Target hit for combined 40 pip gain

On the 24th I noticed something on the weekly chart that caught my attention and really should not have because it really went against every thing traders are taught and told we should not do and that is go against a strong uptrend especially during and/or shortly after an intervention by the BOJ no less. But interventions are not what they used to be. Did not do the swissy much good a little while back. Anyway.

Look at a four hour chart of the eur/yen and it is plain to see the weakness the upper wicks show. The 3 ma on the weekly chart had price move away from it and pull back to it. It was playing tag all week so far. Yes the uptrend was and is there but to try to jump on board this bull trend this week only to have it push back on me was not my idea of a good time. Be patient and let the moves exhaust themselves and trade the pull backs on the lower timeframes was my strategy this week and thankfully is has worked out. I set a target this week for 200 pips on only short trades. I have 193 and I am thankful for that. Stay humble think positive and be patient.

Good trading to all, and to all a good night My @ss is tired. Goin to bed.

Later Yall.

Price has hit a lower trend line with a bullish angle with what seems to be a hammer. I closed one position and moved my stop loss to break even on the 2nd position.

1st position opened at 113705 and closed at 113219- 58 pip gain
2nd position opened at 113686 and closed at 113308- 45 pip gain

103 pip gain

I decided to close both positions afterall, I have hit the bottom of a bull channel that can be seen on the 4 hour chart. The euro session opens in a few minutes I'd rather be on the sidelines to see how things set up.

The hammer that prompte my exit out of my short was just to good to pass up. so I studied the charts and saw some good things. I went long with two positions.

1st 113206 and the 2nd at 113297. I will close both trades. I do not want to babysit any trades at this time of the week since we are at resistance on the daily chart within a sideways channel and I will not hold over the w/e. If it by chance break the daily SW channela nd then I'll plan based on that.

1st trade close at 113813 for 72 pips and closed at 113861 for a gain of 67 pips' total pips gain 139 pips.

great , Keep going on

entered at 113868 closed at 114065- 23 pip loss

Entered this short trade on the 60 min chart and fell back to the 5 min to manage. Tiny pip gain but break out of the flag gave me the cajones to lay a little mor risk than usual. Closed prior to my target getting hit.

Entered at 114164 exited at 114095- 8 pip gain

Price well exceeded my target. Well, Today is just getting started. Better luck next time.

The gap is evident on the 5 and 1 minute charts at the 10 AM open. It has yet to be filled and it occured at 1.38226 price level. Pair is currently trading at 1.39014. I expect this gap to be filled at somepoint between Asian and the Eur session. 70 or so pip retrace needed for the fill to happen so a strong technical reverse is what I'm looking for maybe even a trendline. the 55 and 200 ema's on the weekly chart tell me that a push higher will not happen without a pullback at somepoint.

Any ideas. Thanks

I'm hoping to hold onto this trade until it fills the gap made on November 25th at 1.3244. My entry price was such that I will set at b/e and monitor the price action.

Hello Aox. As I mentioned in our conversation, here is the foundation of my trading method. Keep in mind that I rely heavily on Weekly and Monthly pivots, Fibs and trend lines though they may not be appear on the sample charts. To minimize the clutter on the chart and really focus on the system's main parts.

What I have on the charts are two ema's (12 & 26), TSR 10 (works like a 5 ema but better in my opinion), trend bar and RSI of multiple time frames.

Multiple time frames work well but I tend to use it more on 15 minute charts if only to have more trades to choose from.

Buy side- ema's must be angled and apart with TSR giving a buy signal. Trend bar and rsi should be in agreement. However, When I scalp a few pips I rely more on the momentum of the signal to push price a minimum of 5 to 10 pips. Anything more than that I rely on all of the aspects of the system that I listed in the first portion of this post.

Sell side- ema's open and angled down with TSR giving a Sell signal. The rest is pretty much the same and buying the price.

This is a simple system that works well when applied with patience and strict money rules. Exits can be at a pre-determined price, and in some cases it will possible to set your trade to b/e and then trail stop or use the changing of the tsr against your trade to signal an exit.

Just wanted to share a couple of trades with you. Thanks.

I've closed my day trades on the aud/usd pair though I remain bearish on this pair till it closes the gap formed back on November 28th I'd like to get a better entry without giving back any profit I earned today. Price is now traing between the weekly M2 and the daily M1. Moving averages and TSR all pointing down on the 60 min chart with trend bar clearly bearish. The 50 sma is still flat and has not turned down on the 60 min chart.

I'll await the Asain session to form a trade plan that I hope works around a retracement back to the Weekly M2 for resistance.

There are several reasons why I am throwing my hat into the ring and betting on a temporary reversal on the aud/usd pair on the 30 min chart and I will go to break even so that I will either get stopped out without a loss or price will reach my 1st target of 30 pips.

1) price reached just short of the all important 1.00 level that also has the 200 extension fib next to it.

2) The 10 TSR is riding outside the upper Bollinger Band which in itsself tells me that a reversal to at least a technical level is to follow and the lower band is flat/closing. A breakout of this size should have seen the lower band spread apart as is the upper band.

3) The 200 SMA is horizontal on the 30 Min chart

4) and lastly the RSI is below 50 in the daily chart.