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  • #181
  • Sep 29, 2010 10:14am Sep 29, 2010 10:14am
latly i have always a little problem with the Support and Resistance and Shos Basic Method

I took the 1. trade long with a tp at 1.3620 . That oned i think was OK .
But the 2. Trade, very strong support but looking at keltner Channel it looks to me like a short entry using Shos basic Method.
So i closed with 8 pips gain

What do u all think about this?


MJurban
Attached Image
  • #182
  • Sep 29, 2010 10:32am Sep 29, 2010 10:32am
Quoting MJurban
latly i have always a little problem with the Support and Resistance and Shos Basic Method

I took the 1. trade long with a tp at 1.3620 . That oned i think was OK .
But the 2. Trade, very strong support but looking at keltner Channel it looks to me like a short entry using Shos basic Method.
So i closed with 8 pips gain

What do u all think about this?


MJurban
1) You wrote "what is stronger?"
Sho has said many times "Momentum exceeds everything".
But let us BE AWARE of zones that POTENTIALLY could cause a reaction.


2) You wrote "So i closed with 8 pips gain. What do u all think about this?"
You won 8 pips. Be happy . Eric gets many 8 pip trades and finishes with a net profit of 50+ on many days.

Let's not forget that nothing is certain in trading. No method, no supply or demand zone. We can look at charts afterwards and find many reasons why we should or should not have done this and that. Many a fool can do that . There is even nothing wrong with losing a trade. It's a cost of doing business ...whether you are an trader, butcher, truck driver or lawyer - we have business costs. As traders, we are in a probability business ...just like the casino. We will NEVER win every trade.

Well done on your winning trades!

Rob
  • #183
  • Sep 29, 2010 11:09am Sep 29, 2010 11:09am
priceaction,
thanks for answer. You are so right, i always want something solide to stick to, but in trading we have to take what market offers you.
  • #184
  • Sep 29, 2010 3:22pm Sep 29, 2010 3:22pm
I want to thank Rob for allowing me to comment in this thread. There is a lot of fluff on FF but this thread is very good, imho. Seiden does a great job explaining supply/demand and ways to quantify. I have poured through, and continue to do so, the recordings and documents about how Seiden approaches s/d. I am also a little fortunate to have someone who knows exactly where Seiden is coming from in regards to s/d.

There is a chart of the GU attached. I shorted this market. Why? Weekly and Daily were at a quantified supply area. The weekly did not poke the BB but the daily has. My sell zone was a previous area and an order to sell was at the bottom line with the stop above. My profit target is clear and at a quantified demand area.

Did get some juice on the trade as you can see. However, was taken out on a spike up (not on this attachment but you can see it on your charts) and price dropped to my target...to the pip...without me. I did buy at the target, following the uptrend on the daily right into the the congestion area that you can see on the 30 minute. Outstanding r/r as was the short.

Upon assessing the failed short after, it was a nice rally,base drop that I was wanting to short when price arrived at the area again...which it did. The issue is the stop was above the base.....but below the spike (3:00 pm EDT, 30 minute chart, Aug 10). Above the spike would have been a 60 pip risk for 128 reward. Still decent although 1-3 is what Seiden uses.

So, in the end, I am happy with picking out the levels, the reason for the short but not with the stop selection. Hindsight is either use the high of the spike or skip the trade due to the r-r. Perhaps, as I continue to refine I will stick to the daily trend and save the trend change for later.

Love some comments from those who understand this approach.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #185
  • Sep 29, 2010 4:24pm Sep 29, 2010 4:24pm
Quoting priceaction
Mat,

Knowing where possible supply and demand zones are does not mean that you are trading a method. It's simply being aware of what is on the charts. Just like knowing that a daily pin, 4hr upward channel or 1hr flag exists.

You can trade at the zones (as taught by Sam Seiden and others) or between the zones (as taught be Sho). Sho has taught trading between the zones (that is what his ZONE ATTACK is) but he couldn't teach that without knowing where the zones are

Am I making sense?

As with any business, "be a specialist"...
I think its great that people are exploring ways to trade with supply/demand zones in this thread. But, lets not forget that its important to understand the logic.

Firstly, it is wrong to compare Sho's levels of supply and demand to Seiden's. What Sho identifies as supply and demand is not the same as a Seiden level which are based purely on Seiden's probability enhancers. If they do not meet the crieria, it is not a level. You have to understand the definition of a supply/demand level to increase the probability of the trade working out. That is an edge. This is what Seiden teaches. Know and understand the difference, it is very important.

Secondly, Sho muddies the water with regards to understanding supply and demand compared to what this thread attempts to study. He acknowledges that they exist but chooses to use the keltner channel that is not based on supply/demand but a mathematical calculation. He also acknowledges that supply and demand exist but chooses to trade in between those levels thus increasing his risk.

I thought this thread was based on Seiden's supply/demand levels since all the resources at the start of the thread indicated that way. I and another contributor correctly clarified that his levels are defined by his probability enhancers. To bring up Sho's work and to even compare it to Seiden's is probably going to confuse quite a few people when they are two very different techniques and market logic.
  • #186
  • Sep 29, 2010 4:34pm Sep 29, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting priceaction

Let's not forget that nothing is certain in trading. No method, no supply or demand zone. We can look at charts afterwards and find many reasons why we should or should not have done this and that. Many a fool can do that . There is even nothing wrong with losing a trade. It's a cost of doing business ...whether you are an trader, butcher, truck driver or lawyer - we have business costs. As traders, we are in a probability business ...just like the casino. We will NEVER win every trade.
Very wise words. So lets take it to the next level. We are going to lose trades, that is inevitable, so we need good money management to make sure are losses are smaller than are wins over the long term. Your entry is only half the battle for creating your edge. Without a well defined Money Management/Risk Management/Trade Management plan, your interpretation of the market for entry is a complete waste of time.
  • #187
  • Sep 29, 2010 7:24pm Sep 29, 2010 7:24pm
Hello guys/girls
hope everyone is making lots of pips...
didnt wanted to post here but somehow i am..
just cheking Robs(price action) thread, and what i can see is lot of people have missunderstanding that i teach something..actually i dont ...

I just showed some people how i do trade.it took me years to make my own methood.. i just blended..

yes my methood is bit meshy musshy(whatever you want you can call it,i dont care). i just need to make the money from the market..this is what trading is all about..

you will use my methood my style
it doesnt mean you will get da same results ..
its my own way i do... 1 day you will find your own way if you stick with this business...
.
sam is a good guy and i know he knows his stufff... does it mean you will be the best one after learning his stuff,you will trade like him-

No way,may be you will be better than him but not like him...he showed you his way,how he does and how he understand markets...you just take those info and make your own path...

each moment,each setup is unique eventhough we see the same setups...
its all depends on the person who trades the setup and how he trades....

i can bet with any1 i will trade the same setup as you but your result will be diffrent.. may be you will get better result than mine..

what i am telling now many will disagree with me but i dont care...

yes market is created by supply and demand...but when its comes to trading and making money from the market its not only understading of supply and demand, ...there is many things to do..
there is many do and many dont...

in this journey you will find lots of good and many many bad info..
just try to filter out those bad info with each step.. you will get there.. its your hard work, comitment,experiance will take you there...


if i did hurt any body with my words i apologise for that..and i never wanted..
i wish you all,, all the best..soon you will find your own way...
will visit sometime to see your works guys...

Regards
sho
  • #188
  • Sep 30, 2010 12:31am Sep 30, 2010 12:31am
Quoting trade price
Hello guys/girls
hope everyone is making lots of pips...
didnt wanted to post here but somehow i am..
just cheking Robs(price action) thread, and what i can see is lot of people have missunderstanding that i teach something..actually i dont ...

I just showed some people...
Hey Sho,

Good to see you here. A number of us miss your regular posts.

When people seek knowledge (in anything) and others share their knowledge, it is human nature for the student to think "I learned from them" or "they taught me".

Whilst you say you "don't teach", like it or not, you will always be seen as the guy who taught some people a lot about trading; and I shall always be grateful for what I learned from you.

Thanks for sharing more words of wisdom.

Rob
  • #189
  • Sep 30, 2010 12:42am Sep 30, 2010 12:42am
Quoting Porkpie
Firstly, it is wrong to compare Sho's levels of supply and demand to Seiden's. What Sho identifies as supply and demand is not the same as a Seiden level which are based purely on Seiden's probability enhancers. If they do not meet the crieria, it is not a level....
There has been no comparison made. There has only been a clear and concise statement that the methods differ.

There are no "Sho's levels of supply and demand" or "Seiden's levels of supply and demand". There are only the market's levels of supply and demand.

There are different ways to trade supply and demand. Just as there are different ways to trade a pin bar. Seiden has his own way, but this is not a thread about Sam Seiden. If you want that, I suggest you start one.

Read the 1st post carefully, and keep this thread to "learning about supply and demand". Not how you think the thread should be.

Rob
  • #190
  • Sep 30, 2010 2:09am Sep 30, 2010 2:09am
Hi Rob

Please accept my humble apologies for starting this SD and SR debate.

I never intended to offend you or Sho.

I have great admiration for both of you sharing your knowledge with us.

  • #191
  • Sep 30, 2010 6:00am Sep 30, 2010 6:00am
Entry: 1.3670
SL: 1.3702
1st Target: 1.3560
2nd Target: 1.3420
3rd Target: Trailing Stop

Have I jinxed it by posting on here... ROFL. Weekly supply level and 1st target with 3:1 R/R which is also just above the 4hr demand level. Surely this one will work out for me!

Also looking at the following pairs for swing trades -

USDJPY (Where BoJ last intervened)
USDCHF (Low of March 2008)
AUDNZD (High April 2010)

My order entry missed GBPAUD by 5 pips... oh well, sheet happens!

I wish you success with your trading!
  • #192
  • Sep 30, 2010 9:59am Sep 30, 2010 9:59am
GBPAUD - Well, it was at a low! Look at the monthly chart for this pair!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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GBPUSD - Saw this and couldn't resist the buy when we visited the previous demand zone as pointed out by Rob!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 100930_gu_m15.PNG Size: 33 KB


I will take my 3:1 on the GBPAUD trade for my 1st runner and then take it from there!

GBPUSD is more of an intraday trade and I need to just cash in some pips!
  • #193
  • Sep 30, 2010 10:15am Sep 30, 2010 10:15am
Quoting bbakker
GBPAUD - Well, it was at a low! Look at the monthly chart for this pair!

Attachment

GBPUSD - Saw this and couldn't resist the buy when we visited the previous demand zone as pointed out by Rob!

Attachment

I will take my 3:1 on the GBPAUD trade for my 1st runner and then take it from there!

GBPUSD is more of an intraday trade and I need to just cash in some pips!
Hey Brian,

Good call on the Euro.

I must admit I went long GBPUSD at the demand zone but closed out for a small profit and am now short at 1.5753. Looks like this is one demand zone that won't fight off the strong downward momentum.

Rob
  • #194
  • Sep 30, 2010 10:29am Sep 30, 2010 10:29am
Quoting trade price
Hello guys/girls
hope everyone is making lots of pips...
didnt wanted to post here but somehow i am..
just cheking Robs(price action) thread, and what i can see is lot of people have missunderstanding that i teach something..actually i dont ...

[b][color=DarkRed]I just showed some people...
totally agree with you Sho.... a trader NEEDS to work a STRATEGY that works for his PERSONALITY and Risk tolerance.... it impossible to teach anyone the way ONE or i or you trade... because we can have rules..BUT i also BREAK them..so in essence ,LEARN what works for you and STICK with it..
i know ROB..the Guy is a great individual..who loves to trade and also HELP in anyway he can..
Sorry no charts..but i wanted to express my view...NOW back to the CAVE !!

baz
  • #195
  • Sep 30, 2010 1:22pm Sep 30, 2010 1:22pm
Hello folks...

I passed on the GU retrace (see circles) as, for me, the area to the left already saw a drop and probability scoring was not in the favor for that. As well, the origin was a rally base rally move which is lower in the probability scale.

My buy zone has a nice rally out of the area after spending very little time and is clearly returning to the area with some gusto. Was a stellar move north from there.

As for the EU...short at 3652 as, scrolling far left, there is a great quantified supply area that it bounced from. Target is the area market buy zone. Was a rally base rally but price took off from that area quite nice.

Will see how they play out and I continue to tighten down my rules and what, for me, is a supply demand area. So far, I think many of the levels I have chosen have many of the enhancers built in.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #196
  • Sep 30, 2010 1:58pm Sep 30, 2010 1:58pm
Further to my post above....as I looked back at the chart..the top line of the buy zone should have been at the origin of the move up.....it wasn't. 5672, which is where the basing ended, was the proper level (basically the close of the green base candle..blue circle). Price poked down to THAT level with an extra pip....while my entry sat just below. The ship may have sailed on this move for me. I will leave the order there until price does it thing from this level. Superb level it appears at the moment.
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  • #197
  • Edited 4:01pm Oct 1, 2010 2:58pm | Edited 4:01pm
Quoting priceaction
Hey Brian,

Good call on the Euro.

I must admit I went long GBPUSD at the demand zone but closed out for a small profit and am now short at 1.5753. Looks like this is one demand zone that won't fight off the strong downward momentum.

Rob
I got near to my 3:1 target and I close out 1/3. Left other 2 free trades but got stopped out this morning. Still made profit on it and looking to short again around 1.3787-1.3839. Got some nice longs on it today to get to the aforementioned weekly supply zone and DIX is running into a demand level.

I am praying for a nice 50 pip novice gap up to 1.3825 which would be a beautiful Sunday opening bonus that I will take without a shadow of doubt, maybe with a retrace target back to 1.3660, if we break 1.3715. BB on h4 is piercing too so this will be an All Star Event if that does happen, so can't wait for Sunday opening!

Still in the GBPAUD but scaled out to take a profit and make this a free trade. We are at yearly lows here with a triple bottom on the monthly so October will be crucial for this pair.

I find with swing trading of the higher timeframes, a good way of reducing your losses is by identifying entries which give you a good 2:1 or 3:1 as initial target and closing a 1/3 with up to a 1:1 profit and which gives you 2 free runners. Fast entry into the zones like EURUSD did yesterday gives you the path of least resistance back and one of the odds enhancers.

I took small profit on the GBPUSD yesterday as it came back. With day trading you just have to take your 10, 20, 30 pip profits as they come and be quicker on moving the SL to BE. It looked like a move up was possible again, but it quickly turned. Again I use multiple lots with day trading which gives you more flexibility. My trade preference is to go all in and then scale out.

Took my USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDNZD orders off the table, but will definitely have a look at the extreme areas including AUDUSD for some swing trades on these pairs next week!
  • #198
  • Oct 3, 2010 8:43am Oct 3, 2010 8:43am
Quoting bbakker
I am praying for a nice 50 pip novice gap up to 1.3825 which would be a beautiful Sunday opening bonus that I will take without a shadow of doubt, maybe with a retrace target back to 1.3660, if we break 1.3715. BB on h4 is piercing too so this will be an All Star Event if that does happen, so can't wait for Sunday opening!
I revised my target back to 1.3590 using my FXCM account which has my preferred h4 candles.
  • #199
  • Oct 4, 2010 9:42am Oct 4, 2010 9:42am
Rob's status on his profile is as follows -

Since 2007 I have usually been quite active in ForexFactory. I have learned a lot and given back some.

These days I trade for a living. Other than some management consultancy business (which I am fading out of), trading is what pays the bills.

I am increasing my trade size and I need to be 100% focused to ensure I trade according to my plan. So I have cut out emails, TV and Forums during my core trading hours. Whilst all these things can be entertaining, they create noise, which is not what I want, especially when I aim to trade with a clear mind, relaxed and in full control of trading, to ensure I trade my plan. Entertainment is good, but I am separating that from my business.

I will be around FF, but just much less than previously and certainly not during my morning and afternoon trading sessions: 09:00 to 12:00 and 14:00 to 17:00 Central European Time.

You can follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/consultfx

Trade safe, and remember that an edge that suits you, is just the beginning.

Rob

-------------------------

I completely understand why Rob has taken this decision and I am sure that I am speaking for everyone when I wish him success with his trading.

I am sure Rob won't mind if I continue this thread of his and continue where he left off. My charts are not as clear as his and I might look to change it to make it clearer for everyone.

I will only be posting my higher timeframe (h4) swing trades with my analysis, but the principles are the same on the lower timeframes, although you will need to be more aggressive with your profit taking. Remember, that you need to see clear profit targets BEFORE you take the trade with at least a 2:1 R/R ratio. If you can't see them, don't take the trade!

If you also are trading using demand and supply zones, please go ahead and post your charts.
  • #200
  • Oct 4, 2010 9:49am Oct 4, 2010 9:49am
Quoting bbakker
I am praying for a nice 50 pip novice gap up to 1.3825 which would be a beautiful Sunday opening bonus that I will take without a shadow of doubt, maybe with a retrace target back to 1.3660, if we break 1.3715. BB on h4 is piercing too so this will be an All Star Event if that does happen, so can't wait for Sunday opening!
1.3660 - darn... 5 pips out... lol! Don't worry, I cashed 1/3 and the other 2/3 are now free trades. I hope some of you got a little piece of this action on Sunday opening!

1.3722 is holding well as resistance, so now we need to see a break of 1.3665 and my next TP will be 1.3580 or close to it!
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