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There are no secret patterns and there will never be one

  • #101
  • Sep 28, 2010 9:38pm Sep 28, 2010 9:38pm
Quoting witsnpips
it's not that interesting.
Hi witsnpips

Negative comments by all means are also welcome. Interesting or not, it shows you paid attention to posts which means you have read some or all of my post and I hope you can either: Correct me if I am wrong or reinforce my point to fore-coming visitors

Thank you for taking your time and please, share with us your experience.

*regarding issues to so called "negative comments". I don't want to raise hateful comments between members. This thread is for learning, not commercial (I have seen good threads being destoryed by a long chain of hate messages).

MYSELF HAVE NO CREDIBILITY TO DEFEND AGAINST (I AM NOT CHARGING ANYONE ANYTHING, I DON'T NEED CREDIBILITY!!).

I HOPE ALL MEMBER OF THIS THREAD COULD ALSO DO THE SAME NO MATTER WHEN SOMEONE OFFENDED YOU WITH THEIR OPINION. (UNLESS YOU ARE A COMMERCIAL MEMBER WHO NEED TO PROTECT YOUR INCOME)

And witsnpip, this message is not directed at you, but for all the different opinions to come in the future

Good trading to you all
Life is a school for the soul
  • #102
  • Edited 10:22pm Sep 28, 2010 10:19pm | Edited 10:22pm
HEY!!!! CHARTS!!! CHARTS!!!!!

* WHEN I SAY TRAP THE LITTLE MOUSE IN THE BOX, IT IS NOT THE BOX SHOWN ON THE CHART!!!! THATS THE DAY'S HIGH AND LOW BOX!!!! DON'T GET CONFUSED!!!!!
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Life is a school for the soul
  • #103
  • Sep 28, 2010 10:36pm Sep 28, 2010 10:36pm
Very nice thread you have here going on, I like this way of thinking about the market, the elephants aren't waiting for some MA crossover to enter the market.

Also the price action for GBP/USD on monday, will you say that was a trading day especially for dealers ? same as the price action for EUR/USD in the london session today, dealers gunning stops below 1.3400 and then when important news came out at 10.00 am EST the elephants entered the market and that caused another dollar sell off.

And at 9.00 EST MPC Member Posen Spoke and what he said was considered dovish and there was a GBP sell off.
  • #104
  • Sep 28, 2010 10:44pm Sep 28, 2010 10:44pm
Quoting eurotrash
Exactly. I'm of the opinion that if you want to last long term, you need to know why you're doing what you're doing...
Just my opinion.
Love it!
It is simple things like this that wake up your mind and keep us thinking in the right direction.
thanks eurotrash I've almost forgot to keep asking myself the why you are doing and what you are doing part.
How can I ever be successful If I do not understand my objectives.
"never enter a battle without knowing your objectives" - AOW
and trade is a life long battle.
"sometimes wrong actions can occur with the right thoughts,
but wrong thoughts can never cause the right actions"
maybe I shall pay more attention to the one in the mirror every morning and ask these questions before I start trading...
  • #105
  • Edited 11:07pm Sep 28, 2010 10:55pm | Edited 11:07pm
Quoting Lasker
Very nice thread you have here going on, I like this way of thinking about the market, the elephants aren't waiting for some MA crossover to enter the market.

Also the price action for GBP/USD on monday, will you say that was a trading day especially for dealers ? same as the price action for EUR/USD in the london session today, dealers gunning stops below 1.3400 and then when important news came out at 10.00 am EST the elephants entered the market and that caused another dollar sell off.

And at 9.00 EST MPC Member Posen Spoke and what he said...
Hi Lasker

Yes, you are going the right way. But becareful on trying to analysis the news. (e.g. IS IT BEARISH OR BULLISH??) It tends to blind you to stick with one side of the trade. In fact, if it was bad news, but the products goes up, if the conditions are right, you should be buying into it. You always have to assume the big money knows best, even if they get it wrong, they WILL MOVE THE MARKET.

Now you also need POWER TO OBSERVE, RISK MANAGEMENT and TRADE MANAGEMENT combined to use a known edge.
Life is a school for the soul
  • #106
  • Sep 28, 2010 10:58pm Sep 28, 2010 10:58pm
Hi esuffw,

Very interesting thread, i am not sure that i understand you well, what i learn from this to try understanding the market in my own way. Whether how i make decision to entry or exit i must understand why i do it and not because my indicators, TL or anything else tell me that. It seems to be very hard work for me, but will try to understand.

Thanks for thread to show me what i missed til now.
  • #107
  • Sep 28, 2010 11:26pm Sep 28, 2010 11:26pm
Quoting esuffw
Hi Lasker

Yes, you are going the right way. But becareful on trying to analysis the news. (e.g. IS IT BEARISH OR BULLISH??) It tends to blind you to stick with one side of the trade. In fact, if it was bad news, but the products goes up, if the conditions are right, you should be buying into it. You always have to assume the big money knows best, even if they get it wrong, they WILL MOVE THE MARKET.

Now you also need POWER TO OBSERVE, RISK MANAGEMENT and TRADE MANAGEMENT combined to use a known edge.
Thank you esuffw, you're right, sometimes it's not crystal clear how the big money will react, especially in these times when sometimes the market mood is risk appetite, sometimes it is safe haven flows, I have seen bad economic data coming out of the US and saw the USD strengthened because of the safe haven flows for example.

As the POWER TO OBSERVE that's a key element that I have to work on a lot as well as the patience to wait for the big moves.

I have to say again that this is a very refreshing thread and I'm looking forward to pick some gems in here
  • #108
  • Sep 29, 2010 1:36am Sep 29, 2010 1:36am
Quoting Lasker
Thank you esuffw, you're right, sometimes it's not crystal clear how the big money will react, especially in these times when sometimes the market mood is risk appetite, sometimes it is safe haven flows, I have seen bad economic data coming out of the US and saw the USD strengthened because of the safe haven flows for example.

As the POWER TO OBSERVE that's a key element that I have to work on a lot as well as the patience to wait for the big moves.

I have to say again that this is a very refreshing thread and I'm looking forward to pick some...
I'm not picking on you, just making an observation. The need for humans to explain things in hindsight is a tendency that is not really helpful in trading. If you do it long enough, it will infect your thinking in the now, because you'll start to think you're smart enough to figure out what the banks are doing. You can't possibly know what they will do, so don't fall into this dead-end way of thinking.
  • #109
  • Sep 29, 2010 3:53am Sep 29, 2010 3:53am
Quoting Dopey
I'm not picking on you, just making an observation. The need for humans to explain things in hindsight is a tendency that is not really helpful in trading. If you do it long enough, it will infect your thinking in the now, because you'll start to think you're smart enough to figure out what the banks are doing. You can't possibly know what they will do, so don't fall into this dead-end way of thinking.
Thx Dopey for the reinforcement

There is a saying here.

You either DIG right into the action and get infrount of everyone (another word - be the insiders), or you STAY RIGHT OUT and observe (no expectation analysis, but just going with the flow).
Life is a school for the soul
  • #110
  • Sep 29, 2010 3:58am Sep 29, 2010 3:58am
Quoting Lasker
Thank you esuffw, you're right, sometimes it's not crystal clear how the big money will react, especially in these times when sometimes the market mood is risk appetite, sometimes it is safe haven flows, I have seen bad economic data coming out of the US and saw the USD strengthened because of the safe haven flows for example.

As the POWER TO OBSERVE that's a key element that I have to work on a lot as well as the patience to wait for the big moves.

I have to say again that this is a very refreshing thread and I'm looking forward to pick some...
Hi Lasker

The power of OBSERVATION is what we can do best. Leave the big news decisions to the big boys.

Remember, we are PEGGYBACK'ING. That, is all.

I am glad I helped
Life is a school for the soul
  • #111
  • Sep 29, 2010 4:06am Sep 29, 2010 4:06am
Quoting JPTrader
Hi esuffw,

Very interesting thread, i am not sure that i understand you well, what i learn from this to try understanding the market in my own way. Whether how i make decision to entry or exit i must understand why i do it and not because my indicators, TL or anything else tell me that. It seems to be very hard work for me, but will try to understand.

Thanks for thread to show me what i missed til now.
Thx JPTrader

Make yourself feel at home. Be sure to ask anything that you don't understand openly. There are many good people on FF who will be willing to help.

Regarding your trading decisions, it takes a lot of practise and understanding. It is very hard work and I hope you find strength to overcome the difficulties to come. Just make sure you only risk Demo money to start with.

Take care
Life is a school for the soul
  • #112
  • Sep 29, 2010 4:45am Sep 29, 2010 4:45am
has anyone read the book WRITTEN BY JESSE LIVERMORE? NOT THE ONE ABOUT HIM, BUT ONE HE PICKED UP THE PEN AND WROTE?

"How to trade in stocks" by jesse livermore

Have a search, there, he provided you will a good reference point. Pay attention to what he does after he entered and how he realize he should be sitting and observe most of the time, not trading.
Life is a school for the soul
  • #113
  • Sep 29, 2010 4:50am Sep 29, 2010 4:50am
Quoting Venice
Hi nub. Looks like esuff summed up (and in a much better way)

I would like to reflect upon the idea that Market makers seek liquidity. Why is this? Think about it. A general underlying fundamental point of liquidity is that volume is present. Security/Currency can be sold/bought without having to wait for the matching buyer/seller. Guess who makes money on the spreads? Market makers. They seek out these levels because it will make them the most money. More people buying and selling means more profits from spreads. They even figure they can be...
i like this post better than your previous one. esuffw spoke clearer still though
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #114
  • Edited 5:45am Sep 29, 2010 5:33am | Edited 5:45am
Quoting esuffw
WHEN A POINT OF INTREST BECOMES WELL KNOWN, ITS ACCURACY WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME MORE RANDOM THEN BEFORE. THIS IS DUE TO THE LIQUID/PROFIT HUNGRY MAMMOTHS ARE IN CONTROL ALL FOR THE SAKE OF LIQUIDITY.
Excellent post that many people will never understand completely

Anyway, about the last point quoted above. This depends. I would even claim that in many cases it's the vice versa - the more visible the point the easier it's to know the liquidity is hiding there and [I'm sure some people don't understand the full effect of this but think about it] when the massive stop cascade get triggered... boom! I love those moments

(edit: and by the way this is from one of those nasty mechanical traders who let their computers trade their "secret patterns" for them)
  • #115
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:42am Sep 29, 2010 5:42am
Hey Esuff just wondering WHATS WITH THE RED BOLDED CAPS MAN?
Time hides Nothing
  • #116
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:55am Sep 29, 2010 5:55am
blood colour
  • #117
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:58am Sep 29, 2010 5:58am
Quoting mikkom
Excellent post that many people will never understand completely

Anyway, about the last point quoted above. This depends. I would even claim that in many cases it's the vice versa - the more visible the point the easier it's to know the liquidity is hiding there and [I'm sure some people don't understand the full effect of this but think about it] when the massive stop cascade get triggered... boom! I love those moments

(edit: and by the way this is from one of those nasty mechanical traders who let their computers trade their...
Thx mikkom

I see you are a hunter. Glad to have you here, please feel free to share more of your thoughts. I am sure many visitors would want to hear it.

Good trading to you
Life is a school for the soul
  • #118
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:59am Sep 29, 2010 5:59am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hey Esuff just wondering WHATS WITH THE RED BOLDED CAPS MAN?
To high light main points. Sometimes I write too much.
Life is a school for the soul
  • #119
  • Sep 29, 2010 10:15am Sep 29, 2010 10:15am
Some words of wisdom from Mr.Livermore to turn the trading table around. Remember, he was a man who made equivalent 1billion USD by trading his own account only.

HAVE FEAR OF YOUR LOSSES - leads you to cut it short

HAVE GREED IN YOUR PROFITS - leads you to go risky only when winning (Will use some green, too much blood as "Sim" said.)

Very boring day with a lot of sitting. I don't know if I could write a lot, mind is numb.

PLEASE, someone inspire me to shake something out!
Life is a school for the soul
  • #120
  • Edited 11:10am Sep 29, 2010 10:28am | Edited 11:10am
What a nice thread.....Ill be watching this closely.....weeeeee

Esuffw...if you dont mind, Im gona jump in with some thoughts and texts files......Good luck in your quest for truth

This is something everyone should read:
The role of winners and losers of zero sum game

Ill drop some thoughts about this text later....if someone reads the damn pdf....(and everyone here should)
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Zerosum.pdf   80 KB | 1,023 downloads
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