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  • #541
  • Sep 24, 2010 6:30pm Sep 24, 2010 6:30pm
Quoting Zr-fx
Maybe it is overconfidence in the system. I think this is what I have felt and I've only done this for a month. But already I have seen trades come back into the black after a big hole so feel over confident that it will always come back, which not always true. Classic armature problem.
Like I said before, I am struggling with this:

1. Do I trade lots of little tiny one's, make 30 pips, work my way out of them, get the occasional 60, 70 pipper, then BE on L2+ ||| OR, ||| do I trade the longer trend and settle in. If I am wrong, let my L2 pick up a couple hundred bucks etc..

2. How to remain aggressive when drawdown is higher than you like. You have to keep shootin down those pips mechanically, indiscriminately, otherwise you don't pay for your losses... COURAGE.

hahaha.. You wouldn't think #2 is my problem after looking at my test account DD. I am pushing my limits mentally with that account. Picked up 1100+- pips on that account this week which pays for my EURUSD and AUDUSD losses. Had I cowered, I wouldn't have done it.
We are our own best indicator.
  • #542
  • Sep 24, 2010 6:32pm Sep 24, 2010 6:32pm
Quoting astral77
Please observe, One is a Big UK criminal who does you for 9 pips as soon as you open a trade, the other one is a smaller cyprus criminal who does you for a whopping 25 pip. I tested 3 other cyprus criminals and they were the same. It is a classic case of "BUYER BE AWARE".

kind regards
This is a good point though Astral. I will pay much closer personal attention to those things in the future. I just took for granted that these guys were actually somewhat honest. Do you believe that... Crazy I know...
We are our own best indicator.
  • #543
  • Sep 24, 2010 9:21pm Sep 24, 2010 9:21pm
i'm not pledging for these guys but the thing is, they keep their word with "fixed" spreads. This is why i don't even touch these exotic pairs with such large spreads.

http://www.tadawulfx.com/public/trad...s/spreads.html

win some loose some, atleast you don't get to pay outrageous swap rates. eur/nzd even has a spread of 30 hehe.
  • #544
  • Sep 24, 2010 9:32pm Sep 24, 2010 9:32pm
This week +204.9pips....and drawdown 1725.6pips
  • #545
  • Sep 25, 2010 4:47am Sep 25, 2010 4:47am
Quoting bluemele

2. How to remain aggressive when drawdown is higher than you like. You have to keep shootin down those pips mechanically, indiscriminately, otherwise you don't pay for your losses... COURAGE.
I see what you mean here Bluemele. This week with my DD hitting 20% I was very hesitant taking more trades and wanting to focus on getting the DD down. I can see you saying "20% !? This is nothing compared to my $¥%"

But your point is valid. Do we keep taking the trades or take it a bit easy. In one way taking the trades may bring pips that helps the overall position. On the other hand is it taking too much risk?

I think it is down to the personal level of risk tolerance.
  • #546
  • Sep 25, 2010 11:47am Sep 25, 2010 11:47am
Quoting shag3doo
i'm not pledging for these guys but the thing is, they keep their word with "fixed" spreads. This is why i don't even touch these exotic pairs with such large spreads.

http://www.tadawulfx.com/public/trad...s/spreads.html

win some loose some, atleast you don't get to pay outrageous swap rates. eur/nzd even has a spread of 30 hehe.
Spread doesn't matter if they are saying EURUSD is at 1.0 and everyone else is saying EURUSD is at 2!

That is the point. Spreads are important, but price feeds can be so different and weighted on the side of the trend to where you will lose anytime they decide to change the price feed. In other words, they manipulate the price feed to their benefit. It makes stop hunting easier.

If you are a broker, and you make money by taking the other side. You see that 1,000 orders are just north of the last high and if you bought up to that point with Stop Limits (short) and then let the air out of the keg, what would happen. You profit off those 1,000 orders because WE took the other side and the broker enjoys the benefits.

That is why you sometimes see price jump JUST over the top and then run back down super fast. Happened twice on EURUSD and AUDUSD. I am not saying brokers are the only people who do this, but people who can see the orders, (i.e. big banks, hedge funds, others).

That is why retail traders are at a disadvantage. SOOOOO.... If a banks price feed is off 10 pips, it sure makes it easier to make it their and goof up their clients...
We are our own best indicator.
  • #547
  • Sep 25, 2010 11:56am Sep 25, 2010 11:56am
Quoting Zr-fx
I see what you mean here Bluemele. This week with my DD hitting 20% I was very hesitant taking more trades and wanting to focus on getting the DD down. I can see you saying "20% !? This is nothing compared to my $¥%"

But your point is valid. Do we keep taking the trades or take it a bit easy. In one way taking the trades may bring pips that helps the overall position. On the other hand is it taking too much risk?

I think it is down to the personal level of risk tolerance.
I think the key is to learn from these big runs and move your lot sizes to a point where you would never fear.

Even though you have a 20% DD, what is the chances that they all go bad! It took a long ways to get here! I highly doubt no retrace will occur, it would be the first in the annals of trading.

So, if 20% is your limit (which is mine on a larger account), then you need to take a week like last week and say, OK, how can I use this 20% threshold to equate on this week MAX etc...

YOU HAVE TO HAVE DRAWDOWN OTHERWISE YOU MAKE NO $$$. Everyone wants the pure profit easy plays, but without months like this, trading wouldn't be possible. I have to lose money to make more money. That is the tradeoff. It isn't all win/win.

I am happy to make a donation to the market gods as it will repay me 10 fold.

I think if you focus on DD%, you are staring at the wrong target. I think the focus should be on $$/equity.

If a business starts losing money because of a bad manufacturing defect in ONE of it's products, does it stop all business and focus on that bad product?

Toyota for example.... NOPE. They don't. They need to good little elf's work to pay for the bad little elf's work.

My 1K account is @ 50% DD. I would never do that on a larger account (which I am getting ready to build up to just under 100k) and my goals is < 20% even during the worst of times.

If I lose 10%-15%-20% of that account, then so be it. That is what business and investing does sometimes. I used to lose 50K on a house that I couldn't sell, so what is that....? Times are hard and cash is more valuable to feed our families and I have lost too many K's to want to lose more.

The 20% loss is temporary and it would be recovered within 1-1.5-2 months.... That sucks, but man, I don't know of another way to make good $$$.

One way too is to just hedge your bad trades and come back to them in 2 weeks and trade the rest of the pairs. DO this when DD% >= 10% etc...

Or, move your lot sizes down small enough to where it would never reach 20%



Like my example before, I don't see how I could lose 20% a month, I really don't. The only way is if I do what the guy on the other thread said about putting in a stop for everything. That is a great way to lose a large amount. And if you put in a basket % of 5% to stop, then A) you aren't trading very much and risking little and hence your returns will be nothing or B) you will get hit a LOT and your returns will be very small.

Just my 2 pips.
We are our own best indicator.
  • #548
  • Sep 25, 2010 3:03pm Sep 25, 2010 3:03pm
Another brilliant post Bluemele

Quoting bluemele
YOU HAVE TO HAVE DRAWDOWN OTHERWISE YOU MAKE NO $$$.

If a business starts losing money because of a bad manufacturing defect in ONE of it's products, does it stop all business and focus on that bad product?
  • #549
  • Sep 25, 2010 3:22pm Sep 25, 2010 3:22pm
Quoting Taiyakixz
This week +204.9pips....and drawdown 1725.6pips
If you have ever heard the saying, "Misery loves company"... Well, you have lots of it! hahahaha....

This will be over and people will be rejoicing how they "GOT OUT OF THAT XXX/XXX pair that has been haunting them" etc...

Then, a few weeks from now, we will all be crying in our beer again about how xxx/xxx is bothering us... haha...

I guess we need drama!
We are our own best indicator.
  • #550
  • Sep 25, 2010 3:31pm Sep 25, 2010 3:31pm
Quoting bluemele
If you have ever heard the saying, "Misery loves company"... Well, you have lots of it! hahahaha....

This will be over and people will be rejoicing how they "GOT OUT OF THAT XXX/XXX pair that has been haunting them" etc...

Then, a few weeks from now, we will all be crying in our beer again about how xxx/xxx is bothering us... haha...

I guess we need drama!
If I remember correctly then back in 1998 the USDJPY dropped 2,600 points in 3 days and didnt retrace for 9 weeks.

However, I dont think that is likely to happen again but imagine it did on several highly positive correlated pairs which you had open.

I cant imagine sitting on that much -DD

  • #551
  • Sep 25, 2010 10:28pm Sep 25, 2010 10:28pm
Quoting scooby-doo
If I remember correctly then back in 1998 the USDJPY dropped 2,600 points in 3 days and didnt retrace for 9 weeks.

However, I dont think that is likely to happen again but imagine it did on several highly positive correlated pairs which you had open.

I cant imagine sitting on that much -DD

Yup, it could happen. I think the difference was the Asian Tiger got shot, and I was actually in Korea the day it happened. It is a funny memory as when I went to the bank before flying out and to exchange my Korean Won back to $$, I was yelling at the lady saying you ripped me off! Then, when I got to Japan I informed the lady that she was mistaken when she gave me so much more than what I was supposed to get the next day. If it wasn't for that, I don't think I could have afforded my 3 weeks in Japan drinking 1000 Yen American beers!

2600 pips

most likely entry would be at about 350 pips already into the move

L2 = 550 pips

L3 = 750 pips

L4 = 1000 pips (UGHHH)

L5 = 1300 pips (UGGGGGGHHH) HEDGE!!!! Too much news.....

The thing I don't see right now except that the US wants a weak dollar (maybe they are manipulating it?) for obvious reasons.... What news is causing this. This isn't a run 500 pips a day type deal either.

Of course Sept - Nov tend to be pretty good moving months right...
We are our own best indicator.
  • #552
  • Sep 27, 2010 4:21am Sep 27, 2010 4:21am
Hi guys

This thread has been quiet for a while!

Last week has been very interesting. Made some silly mistakes and saw almost every trade go the opposite way.

I suppose I'm lucky that I started about 5 weeks ago and had profits already. I feel sorry for anyone who started last week and jumped straight into the deep end. All I can say is that it is not always like that. Last week was quite rough compared to previously so stick with it.

Last week I banked a net of 126.9 pips. Equity increased by 1.2%. Current DD 18%.

I decided not to close my L1 on EU that I posted about last week. May be I should but looking at my total position I have decided to take the risk.

Fairly slow start of the week as usual. Closed a couple of trades this morning for about 68 pips total.

Growth curve and current trades attached.

Hope this week is easier and we can get rid of some of the problematic trades.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Growth.JPG Size: 50 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Panel.JPG Size: 88 KB
  • #553
  • Sep 27, 2010 7:43am Sep 27, 2010 7:43am
Quoting Zr-fx
Hi guys

This thread has been quiet for a while!

Last week has been very interesting. Made some silly mistakes and saw almost every trade go the opposite way.

I suppose I'm lucky that I started about 5 weeks ago and had profits already. I feel sorry for anyone who started last week and jumped straight into the deep end. All I can say is that it is not always like that. Last week was quite rough compared to previously so stick with it.

Last week I banked a net of 126.9 pips. Equity increased by 1.2%. Current DD 18%.

I decided not...
Yes, seems like everything I touched went the other way. Even last night. The trades I closed all went for pips, while the trades I held just -pips. Tough couple of weeks for me on this. When the tide turns though, I have to be ready and willing to catch the pips.

18% isn't too bad, but getting up there to be a little intimidating.

I closed out 1 of my higher level EURUSD trades for a small profit, but only part of it, so thinking we may have some more up.

It would be nice to get a reverse and I am wondering if the news out today all day will have that impact. Sometimes it just needs a little something to loosen the damn crack a little more and booooshhhhshshshshs.......
We are our own best indicator.
  • #554
  • Sep 27, 2010 10:21pm Sep 27, 2010 10:21pm
Interesting bands consolidating!

I wonder what Phanti would think about this....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pic.gif Size: 31 KB
We are our own best indicator.
  • #555
  • Sep 28, 2010 2:49am Sep 28, 2010 2:49am
almost every pair seems to have retraced...

question is do we bail out because of possible recession?

AXA said double dip recession is unlikely (don't know how credible these guys are)

or do we stick with the trade in hopes of some good news from the feds?
  • #556
  • Sep 28, 2010 3:35am Sep 28, 2010 3:35am
Quoting shag3doo
almost every pair seems to have retraced...

question is do we bail out because of possible recession?

AXA said double dip recession is unlikely (don't know how credible these guys are)

or do we stick with the trade in hopes of some good news from the feds?
Yes this is the question, bail out or stick with it. Problem is no one can answer as it depends on the person's tolerance of risk. There has been some retracement but not enough and it seemes to be moving back up again so it's not clear yet.

If the retracement means I can get out at BE then I will not hesitate to close. But for now it all depends on your situation. My DD is hovering around 20% with biggest being EU with L1 on -550pips (down from -650 last week) so I've decided to wait and see.
  • #557
  • Sep 28, 2010 3:40am Sep 28, 2010 3:40am
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Released on 9/27/2010 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2010
Prior >>>>>> Actual

Level0 >>>>>> Minus-0.53


The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators(pdf) of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

When the CFNAI-MA3 value moves below –0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun.
  • #558
  • Sep 28, 2010 7:52am Sep 28, 2010 7:52am
Thanks for the update Scoobs.

ZR FX you are not alone, I think everyone is in a wait and see situation to see what is going to happen. I would close my positions if there is a big enough retrace to reach BE. Very much exposed to USD pairs and all the signs point to even a weaker USD, which bad news for me. At present I am not doing many NB trades unless it looks extremely safe and even then I use a SL. I know this is not within the rules, however, in this trending market I am not going to risk it till the time that markets settle down and we get some degree of normalcy returning.

This is a very sound system and I will stick with it for the foreseeable future, however, we are going through a turbulent times and not only this system but any indicator based system is impotent at such times. Bloomberg just reported that the Brazilian finance minister has said we are entering a period of currency wars. All the countries want weaker currencies to boost their exports but you can not have all currencies being weak. IMHO the wise move is to trade small with hard SL and TPS till such time that we have a bit of stability restored. In the meantime if you want something to keep you busy you may want to check out David`s 4h scalping thread.

kind regards
  • #559
  • Sep 28, 2010 2:42pm Sep 28, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting astral77
Thanks for the update Scoobs.

[color=black][font=Verdana]ZR FX you are not alone, I think everyone is in a wait and see situation to see what is going to happen. I would close my positions if there is a big enough retrace to reach BE. Very much exposed to USD pairs and all the signs point to even a weaker USD, which bad news for me. At present I am not doing many NB trades unless it looks extremely safe and even then I use a SL. I know this is not within the rules, however, in this trending market I...
My plan is just to stick with it. If I lose, I lose. If I lose too much, then I am betting too much.

I will make it back next month. It is usually when I feel like giving up is when the retrace occurs.

Astral is smart. Not a bad plan at all!

USD is eating all of us up and so now is it seems CAD!

Started as a AUD problem, then USD, then CAD!

sheeshhhhh..... I feel beat up, so it must be time to retrace.

What I have been doing is using trend lines for my exits on my higher level trades.

Yesterday I went short on EURUSD and AUDUSD at the top! WOOOHOOO....

I picked up about 70-80 pips on each retrace and exited. I then planted my reentries below the trendline break. However, that worked beautifully, I got greedy and moved my stop entries before my FUTURES trading to just below both those currencies and I got entered and it went on a tear!

I am still up the pips and in the same place pretty much, but man, it would have been nice to not have been in that move up! haha...

I have now exited my L1, L2 on both AUDUSD and EURUSD. (HEDGED).

I am unhedging and rehedging (costs just a little bit to do and trying to make some progress there)

If I time it well, then my hedges will not be entered and I will then retrace and hit BE. All about timing. I am using the 1HR chat for such.

I just entered short again on the EURUSD and AUDUSD. AUD is paying off, not EUR...
We are our own best indicator.
  • #560
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:15pm Sep 28, 2010 5:15pm
Quoting bluemele
My plan is just to stick with it. If I lose, I lose. If I lose too much, then I am betting too much.

I will make it back next month. It is usually when I feel like giving up is when the retrace occurs.
Boy, what a day!! Talk about butt-kicking. I went out late morning thinking that EUR is finally breaking, got back about 4 o'clock to find all hell had broken loose.

I closed EU L1 at -750 pips, or . My biggest -ve trade to date. Remaining DD is about -28%.

I will stick with the recovery plan and see how it goes. My next L1 on the line would be AU.

It is Live trading but with £1k. I look at this as training for when I start trading £10k or more.

Good night everyone. Get a good sleep. No one knows what tomorrow will bring.

Z
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