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Attachments: There are no secret patterns and there will never be one
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There are no secret patterns and there will never be one

  • #61
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:36pm Sep 27, 2010 3:36pm
Quoting esuffw
You might find the BEST pattern which best describes a market phenomena, but use it without the understanding of the market phenomena is dangerous!

AGAIN, CHANGE + LACK OF UNDERSTANDING -----> LIKELY FAILURE WITHOUT EVEN KNOWING WHY -----> UNABLE TO ANALYSIS FAILURE -----> UNABLE TO ADOPT AND IMPROVE -----> DIE OUT
Exactly. I'm of the opinion that if you want to last long term, you need to know why you're doing what you're doing. If a certain market pattern or characteristic is making you money, great. But if you don't know why it's working, you won't know why it's not working when it starts failing - you won't know whether it's just a temporary losing streak but the underlying concept is solid, or whether there has been a change in the market that affects your pattern; you won't know whether to ride it out or tweak your strategy (and what part to tweak) for changing market conditions or dump it altogether; and you can never really have "faith" in the soundness of your pattern or market characteristic since you don't understand it and don't know if you're simply riding some luck or what. Just my opinion.
  • #62
  • Sep 27, 2010 5:17pm Sep 27, 2010 5:17pm
Quoting esuffw
THE FLOW IS HIDDEN WITHIN EACH BAR.



As I said before:

1. LEARN THE MARKET
2. FIND WHAT YOU CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
3. LEARN HOW YOU CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT
4. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT

Not the other way around:

1. FIND SOME PATTERNS
2. WORK OUT ITS % WIN RATE BY BACKTESTING
3. TRADE THE PATTERN WITH +ve EXPECTANCY

"THIS IS SYSTEMATIC GAMBLING"
Fortunately, I've always traded the scribbled lines hidden in each of your chart's bars. I also realized your point a couple of months ago, and appreciate your thread for bringing this to others.

I still want it easy or rock-solid defined, though; it's almost against sensibility to trade your point. I went through years of candles, patterns and indicators, before beginning with more adaptable chart ingredients. I'm hoping the latter will take over.
Anyhow, each to their own path, and good luck on yours.
  • #63
  • Sep 27, 2010 7:37pm Sep 27, 2010 7:37pm
So many people have a really hard time following strategies once they have 'developed' them, or are using what someone else has given them.

If you want to get into statistics, I can be right about a 20% of the time, and still be profitable. I can be right 90% of the time, and blow an account out.

Develop a strategy, find your reason behind it, and do it!!

People make it far harder than it is, and this guy is completely right. No matter what you do, you are taking a 50/50 shot. Price is either going to go up, or down (over time) based on your reference (order) point!

How do I trade? I trade completely based off of the color of the candle sticks, and the close of them. No indicators, nothing else. Look at the colors, not there size, not there positions. What do you notice about them? What about continuity? People call me insane... those little red and green candles can't mean anything! They are just colors! Heh... why are they green and red in the first place?
  • #64
  • Sep 27, 2010 7:41pm Sep 27, 2010 7:41pm
Hi esuffw,

I disagree, there are many hidden patterns in Forex..


Regards
  • #65
  • Sep 27, 2010 8:21pm Sep 27, 2010 8:21pm
Quoting HyperD
Hi esuffw,

I disagree, there are many hidden patterns in Forex..


Regards
I only agree with this statement because of the chaos theory.

AND, if a pattern/indicator is used by enough people with big$$$, it becomes a self full filling prophecy.

For instance in Forex, 200 MA is huge to the big boys.
  • #66
  • Sep 27, 2010 10:12pm Sep 27, 2010 10:12pm
Quoting kcardinalis
Thanks for digging up those resources for me.

What bugs me about all this though, is like you said ... we are not God. there are zillions of factors playing into fundamentals. there is no way to possibly incorporate and interpret them all in a consistent fashion. Which is why many of us turn to technical analysis. Thoughts?
Hi kcardinalis

It is true that we cannot KNOW everything. But this fact shouldn't stop anyone from searching and learning as much as possible. The more we know about one place, the better we become adopting to its changes.

Regarding the missing information, ever wonder why we created RISK MANAGEMENT? As I said before, even traders with the best infomation available to them trades with strict risk managment.

RISK MANAGMENT IS TO REPLACE UNCERTAINTY. If there is "1 certain for sure trade" per year, I can own the world in less then 10 years.

Regarding Tech analysis, it is a tool, NO MORE. Its used as a METHOD OF OBSERVATION. Most use it as a signal for entries and exit, therefore turning themseleves into the indicator "worshipping" crews. (READ BELOW)

Use this weird example. You are a goldminer (TRADER). You have a dog (T.ANALYSIS) to help you mine gold. Your dog has this special sense (INDICATOR) and can sniff out likely (POSITIVE EXPECTANCY) places for gold. Some time later, your fellow gold miners started to realize the power of your dog. They observe your dog's reaction to certain places and because they are skilled goldminers, they sucessfully mine gold out of the rocks and caves.

Sometime later, beginning and lazy gold miners got so sick of doing all the hard work (REATAIL TRADER) they started to lie to themseleves (OR BEING LIED TO), and think the dog is "THE GOD OF GOLD" (TRADING ROBOTS)and started worshipping it, hoping it will bring gold to thier doorstep.

The truth is, goldmining is SWEAT AND BLOOD work. I hope this is not as confusing as it sounds.

I hope this clears your concern
Life is a school for the soul
  • #67
  • Sep 27, 2010 10:22pm Sep 27, 2010 10:22pm
Quoting joekurr
Here's an idea (if anyone's interested) in regards to the "airplane" exercise listed earlier.

Let's play the airplane game.

We'll have set some rules, like the maximum # of contracts that can be bought/sold, but it seems like besides that, the game is pretty open.

Each day a direction - "long" or "short" will be posted for the following trading day. Each day beginning and ending at 5pm ET.

Then whoever wants to play can trade up to 10 full contracts trading only in the direction of the day... but choosing where and when they implement...
Hi Joe

Seems like you are the only one willing to take a step forward here. Most just wants other to do their work for them. Please by all means carry on with this positive energy.

Regarding what you suggested, if you practice enough, you will be able to find the most comfortable risk point for yourself. I am acutally doing something like this for my job (NOT RANDOM ENTRY). I will PM you with some ideas we use here.

Keep going at it.
Life is a school for the soul
  • #68
  • Sep 27, 2010 10:27pm Sep 27, 2010 10:27pm
Quoting eurotrash
Exactly. I'm of the opinion that if you want to last long term, you need to know why you're doing what you're doing. If a certain market pattern or characteristic is making you money, great. But if you don't know why it's working, you won't know why it's not working when it starts failing - you won't know whether it's just a temporary losing streak but the underlying concept is solid, or whether there has been a change in the market that affects your pattern; you won't know whether to ride it out or tweak your strategy (and what part to tweak) for...
Well explained. Lack of understanding makes stubborn traders.
Life is a school for the soul
  • #69
  • Sep 27, 2010 10:33pm Sep 27, 2010 10:33pm
Quoting ha-pattern
Fortunately, I've always traded the scribbled lines hidden in each of your chart's bars. I also realized your point a couple of months ago, and appreciate your thread for bringing this to others.

I still want it easy or rock-solid defined, though; it's almost against sensibility to trade your point. I went through years of candles, patterns and indicators, before beginning with more adaptable chart ingredients. I'm hoping the latter will take over.
Anyhow, each to their own path, and good luck on yours.
Hi ha-pattern

I am glad to hear about your changed insight. Good trading to you.
Life is a school for the soul
  • #70
  • Sep 27, 2010 10:49pm Sep 27, 2010 10:49pm
Quoting Venice
So many people have a really hard time following strategies once they have 'developed' them, or are using what someone else has given them.

If you want to get into statistics, I can be right about a 20% of the time, and still be profitable. I can be right 90% of the time, and blow an account out.

Develop a strategy, find your reason behind it, and do it!!

People make it far harder than it is, and this guy is completely right. No matter what you do, you are taking a 50/50 shot. Price is either going to go up, or down (over time) based on...
Hi Venice

As long as you found the reason behind the trade (yourself), and knowing what market conditions you are capturing (the market), there are no limits to the tools you choose to use.

Thank you for sharing your experience.
Life is a school for the soul
  • #71
  • Sep 27, 2010 10:52pm Sep 27, 2010 10:52pm
Quoting HyperD
Hi esuffw,

I disagree, there are many hidden patterns in Forex..


Regards
Hi HyperD

Even if there is, I have no intention of searching for it anymore. Afterall, the pattern could only provide you with an entry point or maybe an exit point. But as I said before, that is no longer my main concern.

Good trading to you
Life is a school for the soul
  • #72
  • Sep 27, 2010 11:05pm Sep 27, 2010 11:05pm
Quoting esuffw
My frd, I don't intend to start a marketing campaign for him. There are a lot of pages in his thread. "HINT?". You know, in the menu, you can click Posts



Now please, lend me your brain for a minute.

As I said before, (wait, let me find it and copy and paste)

"[color=red]Take any price from the market. ANY that price is currently at now. What will price do in the future? Do you know WHERE...
The boss is the trend, the plane is the direction. The boss is the trend cos he just got off the phone to a bunch of other bosses who all agreed the direction for the day, week, month.

Our job is to use all the tools you listed in red to make the best trades possible in the direction of the trend.
  • #73
  • Sep 27, 2010 11:21pm Sep 27, 2010 11:21pm
Quoting eurotrash
Exactly. I'm of the opinion that if you want to last long term, you need to know why you're doing what you're doing. If a certain market pattern or characteristic is making you money, great. But if you don't know why it's working, you won't know why it's not working when it starts failing - you won't know whether it's just a temporary losing streak but the underlying concept is solid, or whether there has been a change in the market that affects your pattern; you won't know whether to ride it out or tweak your strategy (and what part to tweak) for...
Eurotrash - that is -exactly- what just happened to me! Very well said, and a common experience among traders I'm thinking. Things worked great for years, and then suddenly, unexpectedly, started failing. I was given some tips though and before I proceed with testing, I'm going to go over -all- my old tests and figure out why I succeeded when I did, and why I failed when I did. Perhaps that's why this thread has been so attractive to me; it's made me question the very basic foundations of my trading.
  • #74
  • Sep 27, 2010 11:26pm Sep 27, 2010 11:26pm
Quoting esuffw
Hi kcardinalis

It is true that we cannot KNOW everything. But this fact shouldn't stop anyone from searching and learning as much as possible. The more we know about one place, the better we become adopting to its changes.

Regarding the missing information, ever wonder why we created RISK MANAGEMENT? As I said before, even traders with the best infomation available to them trades with strict risk managment.

RISK MANAGMENT IS TO REPLACE UNCERTAINTY. If there is "1 certain for sure trade" per year, I can own the...
"RISK MANAGMENT IS TO REPLACE UNCERTAINTY" Very nicely summed up.

By the way ... I think a few people are misunderstanding the title/basis of this thread. No one here is denying the existence of patterns in forex; this thread is here to clear up the idea of a perfect, fail-free "holy grail" of patterns (which many other folks have done before) - and return attention to YOU, the trader.
  • #75
  • Sep 27, 2010 11:29pm Sep 27, 2010 11:29pm
Quoting jag1966
The boss is the trend, the plane is the direction. The boss is the trend cos he just got off the phone to a bunch of other bosses who all agreed the direction for the day, week, month.

Our job is to use all the tools you listed in red to make the best trades possible in the direction of the trend.
WOW

YOU ARE GOOD!

THIS SUMS UP THE MARKET IN ITS PUREST FORM. Understand the players. There are many kings to the market. One group is the intraday kings, one group is the muti-days kings, one group is the super cycle kings. Understand which one you are trying to peggyback. Adopt your strategy to theirs. There are million possibilities.

Combine it with the power of observation.
Life is a school for the soul
  • #76
  • Edited Sep 28, 2010 1:49am Sep 27, 2010 11:46pm | Edited Sep 28, 2010 1:49am
Quoting kcardinalis
"RISK MANAGMENT IS TO REPLACE UNCERTAINTY" Very nicely summed up.

By the way ... I think a few people are misunderstanding the title/basis of this thread. No one here is denying the existence of patterns in forex; this thread is here to clear up the idea of a perfect, fail-free "holy grail" of patterns (which many other folks have done before) - and return attention to YOU, the trader.
The orginal name for the thread was different. I think the admin changed it for me once, or someone logged into my account and changed it. No matter, I am just carrying on the "theme" they choose for me regarding the name. Learning to adopt.

Also, a lot of threads have touched on trade management. Seems to me a high % of them focus on very systematic ways to control positions.

But from what I see in my job, systematic position controling is mostly for robots. The robots I see is not quite the same type as "Enter 5 lots here, trail, exit here" type. They are dynamic, data sensitive robots which take into account of more then our brain could cope.

Besides robots, human traders are also used, and they can do so much better then systematic robots (not talking about FLASH trading operations where SPEED is the OBJECTIVE). Even more dynamic, more adaoptable... Why get stuck with systematic risk models when we can in fact do so much better with our brain?

(Dont get me wrong, I am not going against computer trading. They have great uses in terms of trading very rapidly, but making it dynamic and adaoptable to current market condition is almost an impossible task for any retail. It takes a lot of maths P.H.D + very skilled I.T staffs to make such operation happen. We are best to stick with our own super computer for now.)
Life is a school for the soul
  • #77
  • Sep 28, 2010 2:04am Sep 28, 2010 2:04am
Very interesting thread, subscribing.
  • #78
  • Sep 28, 2010 2:15am Sep 28, 2010 2:15am
I have 2 positions open at this very moment, but why do I have so much time writing on FF? (Bcos I am a scam and not who I say I am! Only kidding)

Its because I am WAITING FOR FOREIGN CAPITOL.

The sitting is important. Start light. Let the positions bring you some paper profits, then do something extremely risky with the new money.

Sucess ----> Capitol gain. Failure ----> Lost time and effort.
Life is a school for the soul
  • #79
  • Sep 28, 2010 2:29am Sep 28, 2010 2:29am
at yr workplace, what kind of traders are they ?

intra-day, swing or long term position traders or combination ?

Just curious...
  • #80
  • Sep 28, 2010 2:35am Sep 28, 2010 2:35am
Quoting songbo
at yr workplace, what kind of traders are they ?

intra-day, swing or long term position traders or combination ?

Just curious...
Intra-day and long term. Long term is mainly equity. So the two extremes.

In term of position mangement, short term focus on prymid, long term focus on $ cost averaging, again two extremes.
Life is a school for the soul
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