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Simple Question: Are you profitable?

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 26, 2010 4:38pm Sep 26, 2010 4:38pm
  • #2
  • Sep 26, 2010 4:47pm Sep 26, 2010 4:47pm
  •  Czech
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: You Don't Know What You Don't Know | 111 Posts
I think a better question would be "For how long have you been consistently profitable?"

And to answer the question: I am not consistently profitable.
  • #3
  • Sep 26, 2010 4:54pm Sep 26, 2010 4:54pm
For the last few weeks, with the limited trades I've had the time to make, yes, longer term well we shall see, that's the plan



Anyone else ??
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #4
  • Sep 26, 2010 5:06pm Sep 26, 2010 5:06pm
Quoting Czech
I think a better question would be "For how long have you been consistently profitable?"

And to answer the question: I am not consistently profitable.
If you're trading longer time frames, eg, daily, it can take years to be sure you are consistently in profit. If you scalp on 5 min or lower, and you know what you're doing, you should be showing profit in a couple of weeks or so. If you've been scalping for say, 4 years, and are not profitable, then you're shit, and I would forget it.
  • #5
  • Sep 26, 2010 5:31pm Sep 26, 2010 5:31pm
  •  Czech
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: You Don't Know What You Don't Know | 111 Posts
Quoting TheGreatMilenko
If you're trading longer time frames, eg, daily, it can take years to be sure you are consistently in profit. If you scalp on 5 min or lower, and you know what you're doing, you should be showing profit in a couple of weeks or so. If you've been scalping for say, 4 years, and are not profitable, then you're shit, and I would forget it.
The point is whether you will still be profitable over a changing market environment. Not weather your edge is statistically significant. I'd say in this sense, all time frames can be judged the same.
  • #6
  • Sep 26, 2010 5:46pm Sep 26, 2010 5:46pm
I've been pretty consistent since the 1st of march when i decided to stop risking huge chunks of my account on stupid trades. So, this will be my 7th month. My drawdown has been way to much for my taste during this time, but i have since gotten better about picking the best trades, and on August 1st started using a daily downside limit of 1.5%-2% in a single day which has helped a lot.

I first discovered forex about 6 years ago while researching stock trading. I was hooked and studied everyday for the first 4 to 5 years. Finally settled on a method this year and have been fine tuning since then.

I feel like i'll continue to be profitable because I don't forcast, I just go with the market or follow it. As long as it keeps moving in one direction or another each day i'll be there to follow it.

Here's a link to myfxbook with my results so far
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/inte...ytrading/25410
  • #7
  • Sep 26, 2010 6:56pm Sep 26, 2010 6:56pm
Quoting Czech
The point is whether you will still be profitable over a changing market environment. Not weather your edge is statistically significant.
Well aren't they the same thing? If you have a long-term statistically significant edge (over all kinds of market conditions), then you are profitable over a changing market environment.

By definition, an edge in the forex market needs to be able to beat the forex market, not just one set of forex market conditions.

This is one of the reasons (most) academics say you can't statistically beat the market in the first place, although (positive) deviations happen, hence the 5% of "consistent" winners.
  • #8
  • Sep 26, 2010 7:14pm Sep 26, 2010 7:14pm
What does it matter if other people are profitable? Do you want to know if "real" people are profitable? Do you take the word of people who call themselves by various creative names? Does that make their claim more or less legitimate?

What matters most is are YOU profitable? If not WHY not? Lack of profitability (no matter how you define it) is inside the trader...For every person that's profitable there are 8-9 that are not. That's were the money they make comes from.

I can tell you I've been profitable (consistently, what ever THAT means) but do you believe me? Does it matter? Not to me and frankly it shouldn't to you.

If you are profitable GREAT...congratulations! If not figure out WHY NOT and fix it. If you cannot figure out why you are not profitable, then perhaps you can consult an "expert"...but again it is unlikely (but not impossible) that you will find one here.

Bottom line...if you are not profitable...work hard until you are...if you are profitable...work harder to stay that way
  • #9
  • Sep 26, 2010 7:23pm Sep 26, 2010 7:23pm
  •  Czech
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: You Don't Know What You Don't Know | 111 Posts
Quoting Marv
Well aren't they the same thing? If you have a long-term statistically significant edge (over all kinds of market conditions), then you are profitable over a changing market environment.
By definition, an edge in the forex market needs to be able to beat the forex market, not just one set of forex market conditions.
No they aren't. You could have a statistically significant edge in the short-term that disappears when market conditions change. By definition an edge can work for however long it works. A single edge does certainly not need to beat the market long-term, this would seriously limit your possibilities. The trick is being able to identify when an edge is no longer viable.

It seems many people are able to develop a positive return in the short-run (be it a real edge or some tricky MM) but are unable to identify when their advantage is gone. For this reason I thought it might be useful to know how long (or how many major changes in market environment) a trader has been profitable for. Anyone could be profitable for a week but this isn't my thread and it was just a passing suggestion.
  • #10
  • Sep 27, 2010 1:28pm Sep 27, 2010 1:28pm
Well, lot of people say treat trading as a normal business. How many of them are consistently profitable? Maybe you open restaurant and you make living of that for ten years then you go bankrupt even if you are professional. The question is if u made enough money for that profitable period, in trading if u still add lots you will never finish in plus. What if you lose in trading for years and then gamble it back in one risky trade? Are you constantly profitable? So I think living from trading can do everyone who works hard, but not everyone can become rich. Let's treat trading as a business and not play forex with hunderds dollars.
  • #11
  • Sep 27, 2010 5:14pm Sep 27, 2010 5:14pm
Simple question...

When will losers stop asking this question?
  • #12
  • Sep 27, 2010 5:50pm Sep 27, 2010 5:50pm
Quoting Deusomega
Simple question...

When will losers stop asking this question?

Maybe he's trying to get a feel for the odds.


Basically, it's not good, you have a 2% say chance of getting profitable which could take upto 10years and likely only a 0.1% chance of becoming hugely profitable and rich from this, unless your already rich.

So 1:1000 for the dream
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #13
  • Sep 27, 2010 5:53pm Sep 27, 2010 5:53pm
Quoting dimitri
Let's treat trading as a business and not play forex with hunderds dollars.
They'd like to you start with 100K for 1 reason, so you'll lose it and they'll gobble it up.

While learning start with Demo crack that then $1 per pip ( maybe $0.1 depending on your situation ), then get that nailed and move up, only a few 100 $'s required.

Any more and you will lose it, seen so many people blow 100K in no time, first 10K goes then they get gambly to get it back and it's all gone in no time.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #14
  • Sep 27, 2010 9:27pm Sep 27, 2010 9:27pm
Quoting dimitri
Well, lot of people say treat trading as a normal business. How many of them are consistently profitable? Maybe you open restaurant and you make living of that for ten years then you go bankrupt even if you are professional. The question is if u made enough money for that profitable period, in trading if u still add lots you will never finish in plus. What if you lose in trading for years and then gamble it back in one risky trade? Are you constantly profitable? So I think living from trading can do everyone who works hard, but not everyone can...
I wonder how many people would love to open a business and see how they do and also not have to risk anything.

Oh wait that sounds like demo trading...

Here's an idea how about not play forex with any money until you can make money on demo. If you can't make money on demo then you will definitely not make money on a live acc.
  • #15
  • Sep 28, 2010 10:33pm Sep 28, 2010 10:33pm
Quoting Czech
No they aren't. You could have a statistically significant edge in the short-term that disappears when market conditions change. By definition an edge can work for however long it works. A single edge does certainly not need to beat the market long-term
I disagree with your definition of an "edge". I speak of a long-term edge (ability to win consistently where the trade results have a 0% chance of randomness), you on the other hand speak of a short-term edge.

In a chaotic market, one trade or series of trades may have positive expectancy (i.e. an edge); the following trade or series of trades may have negative expectancy. What matters is the average return from all trades, and that this average is statistically significant (which requires a large sample of documented trades). The "short-term edge" (if there is such a thing) is therefore irrelevant. If a trader has the ability (as you mentioned) to adjust to all kinds of changing market conditions and win consistently, then he/she has an edge. If he/she can't do that, the he/she doesn't have an edge in the trading business. Period.

Quoting gspajon
What does it matter if other people are profitable?
Quoting Deusomega
Simple question...

When will losers stop asking this question?
Good answers. I wonder the same.

I suppose it's because they seek reassurance/motivation (especially after experiencing loss). The need to know whether having the edge in this market is possible or not; the thinking being: If others are doing it, then it must be possible.

fxterrapin,

This is a zero-sum game, of course there will be winners, (albeit only a small percentage of market participants). It's only natural. I recommend you read Nassim Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" and then "The Black Swan" if you haven't already.

In my humble opinion, your question should not be "Are you profitable?" but instead something like "Do you think it's possible for you as a small retail trader to have an edge in this market and why?".
  • #16
  • Sep 28, 2010 11:09pm Sep 28, 2010 11:09pm
Very profitable,,,,,1-2 trades a day.,,,1 or 2 pair... 15 min TF.....Using,,, Timed Based Momentum Trading....Coined the term myself,,,lol....Anyways,,,keep it simple....take some profits and let the balance ride,,,,,,
  • #17
  • Sep 29, 2010 4:09pm Sep 29, 2010 4:09pm
  •  Czech
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: You Don't Know What You Don't Know | 111 Posts
Quoting marv
I disagree with your definition of an "edge". I speak of a long-term edge (ability to win consistently where the trade results have a 0% chance of randomness), you on the other hand speak of a short-term edge.
Quote
If you have a long-term statistically significant edge (over all kinds of market conditions), then you are profitable over a changing market environment.
Marv, with all due respect, I would define the edge you speak of as the "Holy Grail" if you are winning consistently in the long-run over changing market environments with 0% chance or randomness. I do not hope to achieve this nor do i think it's really possible (for me at least). The best i can hope for is the ability to consistently identify inefficiencies in the market (which tend to be short-term in my observations). I suppose the real edge would be ones self, however, this edge is built upon independent yet consistent (in the short run) identifiable mis-pricings (in my opinion). As i alluded to earlier, i don't believe any edge can be utilized to its potential (or un-utilized when the time comes) unless it is fully understood.

Regardless, my point stands that if you've transacted enough short-term trades to identify a statistically significant "edge" you still haven't shown that it will survive changing market conditions. So asking "For how long have you been consistently profitable" is perfectly relevant no matter what time frame one trades on.
  • #18
  • Sep 29, 2010 4:32pm Sep 29, 2010 4:32pm
Fair enough Czech.

Also, this was a good point:

Quoting Czech
The best i can hope for is the ability to consistently identify inefficiencies in the market (which tend to be short-term in my observations). I suppose the real edge would be ones self, however, this edge is built upon independent yet consistent (in the short run) identifiable mis-pricings (in my opinion).
  • #19
  • Last Post: Sep 29, 2010 5:07pm Sep 29, 2010 5:07pm
I guess 99.6% of the people on this site aren't profitable!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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