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Nanningbob 4h trading system ver. 5.0

  • #2,321
  • Sep 26, 2010 4:16am Sep 26, 2010 4:16am
Quoting bose3
Scoobs,

Based on your view, how much volatility you expect in FX market in the near future now that there are talks of QE2 and Hyperinflation?

Fez
The biggest problem is going to be central banks intervening with their currencies when they reach certain levels which they want to protect. In the future I think this will happen more often now there is international agreement on the size of capital the private banks need to hold. Mortagagess/loans will become very much harder to get unless you have a perfect credit rating, some would say that is corrrect.

Recently, we had the BOJ draw a line in the sand regarding USDJPY and they took their actions to protect its level. Bob is right that there economy is in a very bad way and they intervened with money they dont have. To move those YEN pairs like they did across the board took massive selling of YEN and bonds on their part.

Several banks spent $$$B trying to stop them and lost, in the short term.

Actually if you look at the BOJ financial statement then the figures dont add up.

I guess some would call it creative accountancy.

Scoobs.
  • #2,322
  • Edited 4:41am Sep 26, 2010 4:30am | Edited 4:41am
I do find it funny when Governments tell the banks to lend more money but say they have to have a certain amount of capital/reserves.

That statment/argument is flawed if you think about it.

Also, breaking the banks up between retail/high street and the casino style arm is also stupid.

This will mean the casino part will need to take even more risks to make money for the bank. This will make the markets even more unstable and lead to further big financial collapses.

The UK government is going to break up the banks! Well HSBC are already in talks with Hong Kong about moving their entire UK operation there as they will receive a 5 year tax break. Now, has the government thought about the cost of paying out of work benefits etc to an extra 23,000 people in the city of London and Canary Wharf plus the indirect job losses as a result. And god forbid if Barclays followed suit as combined this would mean overall a drop of 30% to government income.

Politicians are just fcuking stupid.

Scoobs.
  • #2,323
  • Sep 26, 2010 5:47am Sep 26, 2010 5:47am
Quoting scooby-doo
I do find it funny when Governments tell the banks to lend more money but say they have to have a certain amount of capital/reserves.

That statment/argument is flawed if you think about it.

Also, breaking the banks up between retail/high street and the casino style arm is also stupid.

This will mean the casino part will need to take even more risks to make money for the bank. This will make the markets even more unstable and lead to further big financial collapses.

The UK government is going to break up the banks! Well HSBC are already in...
Scoobs, I disagree with your point of view. Australian major banks basically make their money on mundane stuff like lending on home loans and business loans. They are reasonably robust (most having gone near bust in the early 90s on crap loans to property developers) and actually have credit profiles enforced on them by the govt that encourage/enforce safe behaviours. They are tightly regulated and have strict compliance
requirements. All 4 majors would be in top 100 to 200(or so) world banks are quite profitable and rode out the global financial crisis without really blinking.

Aust has a minor investment banking industry primarily being Macquarie Bank and a range of minor players. We lost a second "major" investment bank in the global financial crisis and the country didn't blink, and handouts to the banking industry were not required.

in short separation seems to work quite well in this country.

I appreciate that the rest of the world may be different but the longer term interests of the "main street" and the "wall st" of each country are not the same.
Having worked at various times with investment bankers and fx traders all of whom had a perspective of the next 1/4lt target or even at a stretch the next 12 month target (and most of whom would have happily slept with strange animals and their grandparents at the same time to achieve their targets) the separation of the two types of banking seems highly sensible to me.

rgds

Peter
  • #2,324
  • Sep 26, 2010 6:00am Sep 26, 2010 6:00am
Quoting peterke
Scoobs, I disagree with your point of view. Australian major banks basically make their money on mundane stuff like lending on home loans and business loans. They are reasonably robust (most having gone near bust in the early 90s on crap loans to property developers) and actually have credit profiles enforced on them by the govt that encourage/enforce safe behaviours. They are tightly regulated and have strict compliance
requirements. All 4 majors would be in top 100 to 200(or so) world banks are quite profitable and rode out the global financial...
Countries and Economies are different. The USA and UK over rely on the financial sectors.

I fully understand that they need to change this but they better be sure they have another way of raising income before taking a bat to the banking sector.

If HSBC and Barclays were to go then that would be around 65,000 direct jobs. Think of all that lost tax revenue let alone corporation tax paid by these 2 companies. And how much would that devalue GBP across markets ?

The ripple affect would be HUGE.

Scoobs.
  • #2,325
  • Sep 26, 2010 6:05am Sep 26, 2010 6:05am
Quoting peterke
Scoobs, I disagree with your point of view. Australian major banks basically make their money on mundane stuff like lending on home loans and business loans. They are reasonably robust (most having gone near bust in the early 90s on crap loans to property developers) and actually have credit profiles enforced on them by the govt that encourage/enforce safe behaviours. They are tightly regulated and have strict compliance
requirements. All 4 majors would be in top 100 to 200(or so) world banks are quite profitable and rode out the global financial...
Interesting discussion, thanks for the insights. I look at Australia in a different light than other countries because you have a big giant country in Asia that is buying everything you can dig out of the ground. It helps everything in your country to look good. On the other hand if China sneezes and regresses, which they will at some point, things wont look quite as rosy. I guess my question is this, if trade with China goes into decline wont the banks then have to participate in more risky investments to keep their profit margins up? And if they do then wont they run into the same bumps along the road banks in other countries do? Just some thoughts.

For example when I came to Nanning 8 years ago only govt officials and taxis were the only cars around. A couple of rich people had some but not that many. Today it is traffic jam galore. (see news about the Beijing traffic jam that was 99 miles long and took a month to unjam). Cars are parked on the streets, sidewalks, basketball courts, etc. ad nauseum. Also there were only 2 bridges across the river and now there are nine. I mean they really cant build that many more for a city of 3 million can they? At some point there is no more new whatever to build and that is happening all over China, there must be a saturation point at some time? Can Australia still grow at that point and what will the banks do then? I have seen cities in China that literally have more empty buildings than occupied ones.
  • #2,326
  • Sep 26, 2010 6:29am Sep 26, 2010 6:29am
Quoting marshy
Hi people

I have been playing, trying to get a clearer idea of where we are when using Nanningbobs system in relationship to simple support and resistance.

This is just to give me a simple broader outlook, but it may in fact complicate a very easy but very clever trading method.

See attached word document

Marshy
Hi, Marshy great job thanks!
  • #2,327
  • Sep 26, 2010 6:48am Sep 26, 2010 6:48am
Quoting Toothman
Monty,
Any time you want two indicators in the same window, apply the first one then click and drag the second one to the same window.
Toothman.

I tried that and worked very well,although the window looks diffrent to the the other ATR2 (5-200) indicator that scooby posted earlier on.See the attacment plz.

Would you know why.

Thank you for the help.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2 atr windows.gif Size: 61 KB
  • #2,328
  • Sep 26, 2010 7:33am Sep 26, 2010 7:33am
Quoting marshy
Hi people

I have been playing, trying to get a clearer idea of where we are when using Nanningbobs system in relationship to simple support and resistance.

This is just to give me a simple broader outlook, but it may in fact complicate a very easy but very clever trading method.

See attached word document

Marshy
Marshy,

This is nice. It help my understanding how to analyze the market. Looking forward for your next post.

Edd
  • #2,329
  • Sep 26, 2010 7:43am Sep 26, 2010 7:43am
Quoting marshy
Yes possibly mate,

but as I said it's just to get a birds eye view of what may be available shortly and when Nannibgbobs system is not quite showing an entry signal, or risk of possible draw down first.

Marshy
Marshy,
Very nicely done as was your summary doc. A great orderly and informative presentation.....I for one would like to see more if you have the time......Weekly would be a real present....

whip
  • #2,330
  • Sep 26, 2010 8:36am Sep 26, 2010 8:36am
Quoting Monty13
Toothman.

I tried that and worked very well,although the window looks diffrent to the the other ATR2 (5-200) indicator that scooby posted earlier on.See the attacment plz.
Look at the ATR values in each chart window and compare to what you see visually. You will quickly realize that the top indicator window (ATR2) visually represents the underlying data correctly. You will also realize the bottom indicator window (2 different ATR indicators with no scale adjustment) does NOT visually represent the underlying data correctly.
  • #2,331
  • Edited 9:26am Sep 26, 2010 8:50am | Edited 9:26am
Quoting Edd Ganuelas
Marshy,

This is nice. It help my understanding how to analyze the market. Looking forward for your next post.

Edd
Quoting hiredwhip
Marshy,
Very nicely done as was your summary doc. A great orderly and informative presentation.....I for one would like to see more if you have the time......Weekly would be a real present....

whip
Cheers Guys

It's just a simple way for me to look over the market to help my perspective of what may be going on /or not...as we all know nothing is certain.

But please take note of scooby's comments below...

Quoting scooby-doo
Yeah I fully understand that.

I think I am correct in saying that back in 1998 the USDJPY dropped 2600 points in 3 days and didnt retrace for 9 weeks. Now, yes, you would have gone 3 levels and closed out. But if you were trading that with several positive correlated pairs then the negative DD would have been huge.

I dont think that kind of situation will occur again but it does focus the mind on the type of situation you need to account for.

From my experience, Bob's system is one of the better ones, and he doesnt need me to tell him that. But...
And then

Quoting scooby-doo
I always use the submarine scenario.

They can stay under for 3 months without re-surfacing.

But if you had 10 submarines x 3 that didnt surface would you panic ?

If someone looked at this thread 2 weeks ago and put all their funds into a brokers account would be in hell right now.

But that is short term thinking and overall they would be wrong but....

Scoobs
Marshy
“A setback is a setup for a comeback.”
  • #2,332
  • Sep 26, 2010 11:17am Sep 26, 2010 11:17am
Quoting nanningbob
Hyper inflation is not the problem. Japan has been fighting deflation for 10 years now and still hasnt been able to get out of it. Most people dont understand it is easier to get money back out of the market, taxation, higher interest rates, etc. stopping inflation, than it is to get out of deflation. Debt ratio to GDP is not an indicator of inflation or hyper inflation. Japan is now over 200% debt to GDP and they still are in deflation. It will make currencies jump all over the place though.

The solution to the deflation from the depression was...
Quoting scooby-doo
The biggest problem is going to be central banks intervening with their currencies when they reach certain levels which they want to protect. In the future I think this will happen more often now there is international agreement on the size of capital the private banks need to hold. Mortagagess/loans will become very much harder to get unless you have a perfect credit rating, some would say that is corrrect.

Recently, we had the BOJ draw a line in the sand regarding USDJPY and they took their actions to protect its level. Bob is right that there...
Thanks Bob and Scoobs for your insight. One thing is for sure that no matter what the outcome is, it will be definitely not gloomy thus resulting in possible trade account casualties.

In regards to trading this system, what sort of spreads a trader can expect if caught in the intervention game, especially when multiple nations are playing the same game around the same time?

Fez
  • #2,333
  • Sep 26, 2010 2:39pm Sep 26, 2010 2:39pm
Quoting marshy
Cheers Guys

It's just a simple way for me to look over the market to help my perspective of what may be going on /or not...as we all know nothing is certain.

But please take note of scooby's comments below...



And then



Marshy
Every time I see a deep trend, the posting on the thread becomes one of fear and concern over the viability of the technique. I think fear is always good, especially when you are raking in the pips as it is more likely that a great white TREND is around the corner duh-na-duh-nah-danadanadana.....Ahhhhhh! (Something for me to be learned is how small the consolidation or congestion area for the EURUSD was before this breakout)

It is funny, if you read the TREND technique threads everyone is as happy as apple pie! Two weeks ago, they were struggling.

The USDJPY and the Asian Tiger getting shot was a massive correction and one that we have not yet seen the end of. That is what Bob calls an EXTREME news story and it is very hedgeable once you discover this issue.

I do not believe things are as gloomy as some think and currencies will continue to retrace and trend, retrace and trend and there is not a new world ahead that is different then the one we have experienced since the last few years of the financial decline.

The moves may be bigger, the trends longer, but I seriously doubt to a point where the market just doesn't give away pips like it has over the last 15 years. When this move is over, I think it would be interesting to read from your trading journal and evaluate it and the next time a big trend comes, reread it over and over.

I just tell myself, this is part of the business, it trends, live with it, take your losses, at the end of the month, year, 2 years, you will be profitable.

OR....

This system doesn't really work, too much discretion, I have to find something that makes money in every market all the time, no matter what! I am a smart person, surely this is possible, I will find it!

We are our own best indicator.
  • #2,334
  • Sep 26, 2010 2:47pm Sep 26, 2010 2:47pm
Quoting bluemele
Every time I see a deep trend, the posting on the thread becomes one of fear and concern over the viability of the technique....
Its not a good idea to trade USDDKK,USDNOK,USDSEK as they have mega spreads and very weird daily ATR's.

They will not help your account, only empty it long term.

Scoobs.
  • #2,335
  • Sep 26, 2010 4:07pm Sep 26, 2010 4:07pm
Quoting scooby-doo
Its not a good idea to trade USDDKK,USDNOK,USDSEK as they have mega spreads and very weird daily ATR's.

They will not help your account, only empty it long term.

Scoobs.
I am playing with DKK and NOK as they seem to have a lower pip value like a 6th digit. I don't have much experience trading them, but so far so good if I treat them like USDSGD etc...

I don't think if you count the value of the digits, that the spread is all that high. They seem to be running about 9 pips spread from a traditional sense, but if you put in the extra digit, like 94 pips etc... But if you take the actual value on my 10 cent forex.com account, the 10 'pips' is actually only worth 10 cents instead of dollar.

Maybe that is just forex.com, so it could be a nuance?
We are our own best indicator.
  • #2,336
  • Sep 26, 2010 4:20pm Sep 26, 2010 4:20pm
Quoting bluemele
I am playing with DKK and NOK as they seem to have a lower pip value like a 6th digit....
These are commodity cross pairs and are heavily linked to the price of OIL.

1. It is possible to make massive profits trading these pairs.
2. It is possible to make colossall losses trading these pairs.

Scoobs.
  • #2,337
  • Sep 26, 2010 4:26pm Sep 26, 2010 4:26pm
I haven't posted my last weeks results here because there is no point. I did have one +30 last Monday, but that was it for the week.

After that, it was dd + dd + dd + Recovery + Recovery + Recovery.......

I think the poor old account will be into Recovery until my yet-to-be-born grandchildrens grandchildren come to maturity.

Or the next half-way decent retrace kicks in. One thing I gleaned from my basket-trading days is this; when you have a lot of trades in place, the picture can change rapidly and a ridiculously-loosing position can turn into a winner within minutes.

Good luck this week everyone. Here is hoping for some retraces.

  • #2,338
  • Sep 26, 2010 4:31pm Sep 26, 2010 4:31pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
I haven't posted my last weeks results here because there is no point. I did have one +30 last Monday, but that was it for the week.

After that, it was dd + dd + dd + Recovery + Recovery + Recovery.......

I think the poor old account will be into Recovery until my yet-to-be-born grandchildrens grandchildren come to maturity.

Or the next half-way decent retrace kicks in. One thing I gleaned from my basket-trading days is this; when you have a lot of trades in place, the picture can change rapidly and a ridiculously-loosing position can...
There is allot of fundamental economic data out this week.



Scoobs.
  • #2,339
  • Sep 26, 2010 4:32pm Sep 26, 2010 4:32pm
Quoting scooby-doo
These are commodity cross pairs and are heavily linked to the price of OIL.

1. It is possible to make massive profits trading these pairs.
2. It is possible to make colossall losses trading these pairs.

Scoobs.
Tell you what, guys, I will trade these pairs. Those of you familiar with my work over the last two years or so are familiar with this phenomenon: Steve does the analysis; every single possible combination of thingies indicates a Buy; Steve buys; market instantly screams off in the opposite direction.

So, here is the deal. I do the analysis, take the trade and publish it here.

You lot instantly trade in the opposite direction. Donate me 1% of your winnings to make me an instant millionaire and we are all happy.

  • #2,340
  • Sep 26, 2010 4:40pm Sep 26, 2010 4:40pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
Tell you what, guys, I will trade these pairs. Those of you familiar with my work over the last two years or so are familiar with this phenomenon: Steve does the analysis; every single possible combination of thingies indicates a Buy; Steve buys; market instantly screams off in the opposite direction.

So, here is the deal. I do the analysis, take the trade and publish it here.

You lot instantly trade in the opposite direction. Donate me 1% of your winnings to make me an instant millionaire and we are all happy.

I wouldnt do it.

Take a look at their Daily ATR which I believe MT4 calculates incorrectly for some reason on these pairs. They can move up and down more than their stated Daily ATR in 10 minutes.

You might be alright trading them with a $1M account using 0.01 lots.

I still cant figure out what the hell the ReEntry levels would be on these numpty pairs.

Scoobs.
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