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  • #4,701
  • Sep 24, 2010 1:54pm Sep 24, 2010 1:54pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I have no clue. I just know they did QE in 2008 lows and gu shot up. So if they do QE2 why would it not do so again. ? This is supported in the current weekly chart set up . I know you are better at this stuff than I am.

TO be honest I have no clue why the market is ripping .. I just know it is ..lol

fundies make no sense any more. New home sales hit 288 k , one of the lowest readings in 20 years..... YET home builders are up and market rips..work that out !!!

could be today is one big fat uptrap who know

For now I am in a sell 1143 hoping...
lol, well (in theory) simple, more of the same tends to decrease price....
But all has to be viewed in perspective of environment.
Like there are times interest increases have positive and times they have negative influences on stock market.
Or something more fitting in current situation, stock-market keeps running up while USD plunges (eg stock-market gets inflated).
I would wish there would be simple correlations be it technical or fundamental, guess thats why we are still struggling to earn a bit
Suggesting some correlation in 2008 would repeat in 2010 just sounds very dangerous. Would hold on to Your fabulous technical analyses, happy pipping!
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #4,702
  • Sep 24, 2010 1:55pm Sep 24, 2010 1:55pm
I was thinking a lot about today's EU move from trading psychology point of view.
One of the most important rules I missed this whole damn week was:
Trade what you see not what you think.

I thought EU was going to come down. All the way up, between 1.3350 and almost 1.3500. I waited patiently, watching 5-15min ND bars, while on H1 chart there was no sign of weakness at all. But still, I was hoping - as a lot of people here on this thread which reinforced me a bit in my belief.
That's a whole bunch of pips, 150 to be exact. I could've bagged some of them if my view was not obstructed by my own (wrong) belief.

I saw the three 15M NS bars at the first retrace, and didn't act, because I wished my carefully thought out theory worked.
Well, it didn't, the market didn't give a damn about my theory, carefully planned or not.

The market just did what it wanted. I must act on this, not hope/wish/think etc.



How do you see this?
  • #4,703
  • Sep 24, 2010 2:10pm Sep 24, 2010 2:10pm
Quoting hsa013
I was thinking a lot about today's EU move from trading psychology point of view.
One of the most important rules I missed this whole damn week was:
Trade what you see not what you think.

I thought EU was going to come down. All the way up, between 1.3350 and almost 1.3500. I waited patiently, watching 5-15min ND bars, while on H1 chart there was no sign of weakness at all. But still, I was hoping - as a lot of people here on this thread which reinforced me a bit in my belief.
That's a whole bunch of pips, 150 to be exact. I could've...
I'm sorry to hear that mate, hope what happened will not discourage you.

This is my view on EU. Same TA as last time.

I think we are on third EW wave on weekly chart. The ultimate target is at about 1.4 area which is the extention of fibo, 161% and also happen to be the 50% fibo from the larger TF.

As you can see, from the daily, price failed to penetrate its last high of the previous rally. and in 4h price showed classic sign of weakness by forming a hammer at about the support followed by a confirmation bullish candle (this can be seen by the next candle closed higher than the doji).

Personally, I didn't take this trade because of the retracement is too small for 4h TF and there were no consolidation candles about the area of support.

Hope that helps. Cheers.
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  • #4,704
  • Sep 24, 2010 3:00pm Sep 24, 2010 3:00pm
I hear you on that.... after seeing a down day on es and breaing 1124 and seeing eu fail 1.3400 I thought for sure down we go for 2 days. I was in a sell 1.3350 , had 45 pip profit but was being greedy. Instead I took 25 pi on the sell in asia / frankie and 20 pip today. Really crappy day. In fact had i come to markets at us open ( 5am) and not stayed up till 1 am as I did i would have seen the lovely tests on 15 min eu and gu for almost 100 pip each

I completely ignored this.... and being awake at LOndon open could have taken full advantage of the EASY long ( in hind sight)

several stopping volumes , and shakes outs

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Quoting hsa013
I was thinking a lot about today's EU move from trading psychology point of view.
One of the most important rules I missed this whole damn week was:
Trade what you see not what you think.

I thought EU was going to come down. All the way up, between 1.3350 and almost 1.3500. I waited patiently, watching 5-15min ND bars, while on H1 chart there was no sign of weakness at all. But still, I was hoping - as a lot of people here on this thread which reinforced me a bit in my belief.
That's a whole bunch of pips, 150 to be exact. I could've...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #4,705
  • Sep 24, 2010 4:09pm Sep 24, 2010 4:09pm
Dear hindsight,

How do I make you my foresight?

Have a great weekend everyone!
  • #4,706
  • Sep 25, 2010 3:01am Sep 25, 2010 3:01am
Quoting hsa013
I was thinking a lot about today's EU move from trading psychology point of view.
One of the most important rules I missed this whole damn week was:
Trade what you see not what you think.

I thought EU was going to come down. All the way up, between 1.3350 and almost 1.3500. I waited patiently, watching 5-15min ND bars, while on H1 chart there was no sign of weakness at all. But still, I was hoping - as a lot of people here on this thread which reinforced me a bit in my belief.
That's a whole bunch of pips, 150 to be exact. I could've...
I think the way you does: Trade what you see not what you expect. But many times it's difficult, our minds cheat us. Maybe we have to, as Gavin says, use our minds like a parachute and open it, open mind.

Trading psychology is a very very important subject.
  • #4,707
  • Sep 25, 2010 11:05am Sep 25, 2010 11:05am
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sec...sts-2010-09-24

wot ,, get rid of stop losses !!! nice one

SEC and feds need to get rid of the HFT and bring back competition to Goldman sachs. In my eyes they were the one that caused the may flash crash no one else. They were being fined by sec at the time ...and guess what after the flash crash that new item dropped off the face of the earth. I think the fine may have been dropped or lowered. What better way of telling the sec to back off then to drop the dj by 1000 point by dryng up liquidity.

so now here is sec blaming stop loss .... and punishing the small guy once again

Imagine they get rid of stop losses .. wonder what effect that will have on confidence in the market.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #4,708
  • Sep 25, 2010 11:16am Sep 25, 2010 11:16am
Heehee take a deep breath and read the article again.
Reserved
  • #4,709
  • Sep 25, 2010 11:17am Sep 25, 2010 11:17am
Here is the daily charts of UJ futures. It is inverse to uj and trade jpy to usd.

So we have seen boj intervention twice now. Without much success. BUT what are they really doing ? are they just accumulating , much like we saw on the lows of the euro when all were crying euro to fail to.8 ? Euro btw in my opinion is going to 1.5 or higher over course of next 18 months.

so here is daily chart uj .... definite 3 wave pattern could form here. We have classic no demand bar on Thursday of last week and saw that boj intervention once more in asia. Now we have to keep eyes open for any further sign weakness in uj futures for a nice 800 pip trade.

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #4,710
  • Sep 25, 2010 11:36am Sep 25, 2010 11:36am
Mal,
So, possibly dn to 76?? Below the 1995 lows?

Quoting malcolmb14
Here is the daily charts of UJ futures. It is inverse to uj and trade jpy to usd.

So we have seen boj intervention twice now. Without much success. BUT what are they really doing ? are they just accumulating , much like we saw on the lows of the euro when all were crying euro to fail to.8 ? Euro btw in my opinion is going to 1.5 or higher over course of next 18 months.

so here is daily chart uj .... definite 3 wave pattern could form here. We have classic no demand bar on Thursday of last week and saw that boj intervention once more in asia....
  • #4,711
  • Sep 25, 2010 12:15pm Sep 25, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting 13.1 Runner
Mal,
So, possibly dn to 76?? Below the 1995 lows?
no opposite.... uj back to 90
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #4,712
  • Sep 25, 2010 12:21pm Sep 25, 2010 12:21pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I hear you on that.... after seeing a down day on es and breaing 1124 and seeing eu fail 1.3400 I thought for sure down we go for 2 days. I was in a sell 1.3350 , had 45 pip profit but was being greedy....
Hey bud,

Is there any way you can go into more detail on this chart? I'm having trouble seeing what you see.
  • #4,713
  • Sep 25, 2010 12:40pm Sep 25, 2010 12:40pm
waht do you guys think of CHF/JPY daily ?

looks to me like a climax run after a (Re)Distribution phase...

cheerz
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  • #4,714
  • Sep 25, 2010 1:27pm Sep 25, 2010 1:27pm
Ok
I had myself confused for a moment. I was reading more into what you posted. lol. Futures, options, commodities, forex, bernake,fomc, and a lot of good old BS ing from news wires,,, too much to keep it all straight.


Quoting malcolmb14
no opposite.... uj back to 90
  • #4,715
  • Sep 26, 2010 10:39am Sep 26, 2010 10:39am
your reading shows spot uj will go higher. that would drive usd higher and probably eu lower. but in middle term view eu will go 1.5. is this correct?

right now i see 50% fib of the 1.51 to 1.18 move at 1.3508 and and 38% fib of 1.6 to 1.18 move was at 1.346.

also have a couple of trendlines at 1.3522 and 1.3567. the last one should, at least drive it back a few pips.

still... there is not stopping the EUR or so it seems...

have a good week

hapipipin

WBR

Quoting malcolmb14
no opposite.... uj back to 90
dreams do come true.
  • #4,716
  • Sep 26, 2010 11:03am Sep 26, 2010 11:03am
Quoting wannaberich
your reading shows spot uj will go higher. that would drive usd higher and probably eu lower. but in middle term view eu will go 1.5. is this correct?

right now i see 50% fib of the 1.51 to 1.18 move at 1.3508 and and 38% fib of 1.6 to 1.18 move was at 1.346.

also have a couple of trendlines at 1.3522 and 1.3567. the last one should, at least drive it back a few pips.

still... there is not stopping the EUR or so it seems...

have a good week

hapipipin

WBR
It's hard to discuss from just thinking; if UJ move up, EU move down or vice versa. Some of the time, it might seems that way. In this case, how are we suppose to calculate the rate of acceleration in price for 3 different currency from 2 different pairs/point of view. Maybe you can point me on how to do that.. I will greatly appreciate it. There are some traders come out with statistical data to rate the correlation between 2 pairs. Perhaps that is the closest thing I can come out right now.

Happy pippin'.
  • #4,717
  • Sep 26, 2010 11:18am Sep 26, 2010 11:18am
Quoting PrymeTyme
waht do you guys think of CHF/JPY daily ?

looks to me like a climax run after a (Re)Distribution phase...

cheerz
This is my take,

perhaps you might get a chance back to 83.5 area (fibo 50 and the breakout price) but from the monthly and weekly, the sentiment kinda bullish don't you think?

well, since you insist to short this pair, i think you have to wait for the next day candle to close below/break the low of the shooting star and then try placing your PO at the low of the shooting star.

But what I will be doing if I were to trade this pair is to wait for the retracement to complete and look for the consolidation at about the 50% h4 fibo and then place my PO at the bottom of the consolidation range.. IMHO.
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  • #4,718
  • Sep 26, 2010 12:13pm Sep 26, 2010 12:13pm
Quoting A-speculator
This is my take,

perhaps you might get a chance back to 83.5 area (fibo 50 and the breakout price) but from the monthly and weekly, the sentiment kinda bullish don't you think?

well, since you insist to short this pair, i think you have to wait for the next day candle to close below/break the low of the shooting star and then try placing your PO at the low of the shooting star.

But what I will be doing if I were to trade this pair is to wait for the retracement to complete and look for the consolidation at about the 50% h4 fibo and then...
yupp i do target 83.5 .. i will wait for the next bars before i pull the trigger.. thou

here is my view on weekly and monthly and its weakness..

on monthly we have a mark down .. with a dead cat bounce pattern.. and higher vol on down bars .. and lower vol on up bars,, well we have a valid test on lower vol.. but the next up bar is on low vol... the vol is decendig on the lil up move..



on weekly we see certain signs of distribution.. the market seems to be rolled over .. on actaully low vol .. as SM has to be carefull when distributing .. also the price is getting support during that phase.. mainly at 85.50,, in order to prevent panic selling ..

i do think we are in a disribution phase.. atm..


cheerz
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  • #4,719
  • Sep 26, 2010 12:23pm Sep 26, 2010 12:23pm
Quoting PrymeTyme
yupp i do target 83.5 .....
Just take extra precautions when trading the retracement wave bro as it can change to the main trend before reaching the fibo level, pay more attention for exhausted candle(s) at least in 4h.. if you know what you're doing, I think you will be just fine.

happy pippin'.
  • #4,720
  • Sep 26, 2010 1:06pm Sep 26, 2010 1:06pm
Uj going higher will not always mean that eu will dive. If the move is based on a weaker jpy then it should have no effect on eu.

It should be another interesting week. I am expecting es to 1150 / 1160 but somehow am very skeptical on this september rally ....

eu I am looking for test 1.3780 , and am still looking to buy dips


Quoting wannaberich
your reading shows spot uj will go higher. that would drive usd higher and probably eu lower. but in middle term view eu will go 1.5. is this correct?

right now i see 50% fib of the 1.51 to 1.18 move at 1.3508 and and 38% fib of 1.6 to 1.18 move was at 1.346.

also have a couple of trendlines at 1.3522 and 1.3567. the last one should, at least drive it back a few pips.

still... there is not stopping the EUR or so it seems...

have a good week

hapipipin

WBR
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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